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Tags: Barbara Mikulski

A Trio of Interesting Polls From Rasmussen



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Interesting bits and pieces from Rasmussen in the past 24 hours . . .

In Indiana’s Senate race, Republican Dan Coats leads Brad Ellsworth, 50 percent to 34 percent. That’s actually good news for Ellsworth, who previously trailed, 50 percent to 29 percent. A Coats victory isn’t surprising; what is a bit surprising is that the Democrats further endangered a House seat by persuading Ellsworth to make this Senate bid, and Coats could well help create coattails for three Republicans in House races in this state.

In New York’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino, last seen pledging to clean Albany with a baseball bat, 54 percent to 38 percent. While I wouldn’t bet money on a Paladino win, that’s a bit closer than I think most expected this race to be.

It’s the same margin — 54 to 38 — in Maryland’s Senate race, where longtime incumbent Barbara Mikulski leads Republican Eric Wargotz. In Mikulski’s past four elections, she has won 64.7 percent, 70.5 percent, 71 percent, and 60.6 percent. Obviously, she’s heavily favored in November, but she may be a useful indicator; well-established Democratic names in deep-blue states can expect to run six points or so behind their previous all-time worst.

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Barbara Mikulski , Brad Ellsworth , Carl Paladino , Dan Coats , Eric Wargotz

Wondering if Democrats Used to Winning 56% or So Should Sweat a Bit



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The Rasmussen poll of Maryland’s Senate race does not suggest it will be high on the list of possible upsets this cycle:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Maryland finds Mikulski with a 25-point lead — 58% to 33% — over Eric Wargotz, a doctor and county commissioner who is perhaps the best known of her little-known challengers. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Having said that, it’s worth noting that Mikulski’s number in this poll is a good chunk lower than her usual share of the vote; she won 65 percent in 2004, 71 percent in 1998, 71 percent in 1992, and 61 percent in her first Senate race back in 1986.

In this environment, could traditionally “safe” Democrats be running 7 to 14 points behind their usual level of support? 

Tags: Barbara Mikulski

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