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Tags: Morgan Griffith

One More Once-Trailing Republican Pulls Ahead



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I believe for the first time, a poll has found Republican Morgan Griffith leading 15-term incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher in Virginia’s 9th district.

A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term.

In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it’s Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith’s lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.

Among traditional midterm voters — those who vote in most or all congressional elections — Boucher is nominally ahead, by 3 to 5 points. But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1. The relative sizes of these groups will determine the winner. If the uniquely motivated 2010 voters walk-the-ballot-box walk, and don’t just talk-the-pollster talk, the Republicans have a chance to snatch the seat. If the uniquely motivated voters aren’t so motivated after all, Boucher keeps the seat.

In related news, Jay Cost’s eyes just turned green and he’s begging others to not make him angry.

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher

GOP Sees Three Virginia Challengers Leading, One Trailing By Just a Bit



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There’s a new batch of polls in Virginia’s four most interesting House races.

“On Monday, September 27, ccAdvertising completed surveys to voters in four key Congressional districts in Virginia. These surveys focused on the competitive Congressional races as well as current national issues. The surveys were conducted to both landline phones and mobile phones.”

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.

Tags: Gerry Connolly , Glenn Nye , Keith Fimian , Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Scott Rigell , Tom Perriello

It Appears Southwest Virginia and South-Central Virginia Are in Different Moods



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The news for Virginia Republicans is not bad, merely strange. While Survey USA shows Robert Hurt crushing incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello in one competitive district, in another, GOP challenger Parker Morgan* Griffith trails incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher by 10, narrowing the gap by 3 percentage points since their last poll.

Virginia Republicans see many reasons for optimism:

Why is a 3-point swing so remarkable?

• Name Recognition: Boucher has run 14 previous campaigns in this district — yet this is one of the closest, if not the closest — re-election runs he’s ever faced. Over the past decade, Boucher has usually finished 20 or more points ahead of his challenger. For the first time ever, his margin is shrinking.

• Air Time: Boucher has been on the air for months in annoyingly-heavy rotation. You can’t turn on the 6 p.m. news in Roanoke or the Tri-Cities without being blasted by multiple Boucher ads.

• Boucher is Running from his Record: Boucher’s TV message is a 180-degree distortion of his actual record. He claims to be for a balanced budget, but voted against a balanced budget amendment twice, and balanced budget resolutions on two other occasions. He boasts about his vote against ObamaCare, but doesn’t mention his vote to hire 16,000 IRS agents to enforce it.

If Rick is so proud of his record, why doesn’t he mention that he votes with Nancy Pelosi 96.4 percent of the time.  Or for that matter, why doesn’t the word “Democrat” appear in any of his ads? 

Meanwhile, as people get to know Morgan Griffith, the more they support him. 

All of their reasoning is plausible; it’s just odd to see Griffith, a veteran state legislator who would presumably begin with decent name recognition in a not-terribly-Democratic district, still trailing by a significant margin.

* Thank God I didn’t write “Peter Griffin.”

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher

‘Up in War-shington, They’ve Got Different Values.’



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In southwest Virginia, Republican Morgan Griffith is now up on the air against incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher.

I notice he pronounces it “War-shington”; it reminds me of Howard Dean’s irrepressible “idears.”

Tags: Morgan Griffith

If the NRCC Didn’t Buy Ad Time in Your District, There’s Probably a Reason



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Over at the Club for Growth, David Keating notices the NRCC “Young Guns” who aren’t getting any TV ads from the committee, at least not in the first wave.

At first glance, most of these candidates look like they’re in okay shape and aren’t in dire need of NRCC ads in their district.

AR-2, Tim Griffin: Leads early polling, has a cash advantage on his Democratic rival.

FL-22, Allen West: Phenomenal fund-raiser as is. He’ll need every dime he can get against well-funded Ron Klein, but in the end, West just needs enough to ensure he isn’t blown away in the advertising war.

IL-14, Randy Hultgren: Perhaps he’s one of the more surprising omissions, but it’s a suburban Chicago seat and that means an expensive television market.

NJ-3, Jon Runyan: Former NFL star shouldn’t have a hard time raising additional funds; he’s already given $300,000 to his own campaign.

NM-1, John Barela: He’s sitting on $537,000 in cash, according to his most recent filing.

NY-29, Tom Reed: This seat is deemed one of the seats most likely to flip in November; the NRCC probably concluded Tom Reed is doing fine, at least for now.

OH-13, Tom Ganley: This Republican is just going to have to get by on the $3 million or so he’s given his campaign so far.

PA-8, Michael Fitzpatrick: Pretty expensive media market (Philadelphia). In his last report, Fitzpatrick had more than $660,000 in the bank, so he’s actually well-stocked, even though rival Patrick Murphy has much more.

VA-11, Keith Fimian: Expensive media market (Washington, D.C.). Fimian’s behind in the most recent cash-on-hand numbers, but he’s raised more than $1 million over the course of his campaign.

VA-9, Morgan Griffith: Perhaps a bit surprising, but rival Rick Boucher is already running from Obama, and Griffith is probably going to be outspent no matter how well he raises money. This race will probably come down to whether a deeply conservative district (R+11) wants to keep sending a Democrat to Congress.

UPDATE: Interesting. I am informed that the NRCC did make a late addition to their list, reserving air time for the race in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district to help out Jon Runyan.

Tags: Allen West , Jon Barela , Jon Runyon , Keith Fimian , Michael Fitzpatrick , Morgan Griffith , Randy Hultgren , Tim Griffin , Tom Ganley , Tom Reed

Survey USA Giveth, Survey USA Taketh Away



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Survey USA offered Virginia Democrats terrible news earlier this week; now it offers them some good news:

A new Survey USA poll shows Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) leading Republican Morgan Griffith 52-39 in Virginia’s 9th district.  The poll shows, “Among men, the contest is tied; among women, Boucher leads by 25 points. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents split. Those with favorable opinions of the Tea Party movement back Griffith 3:1; those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party back Boucher 14:1.”

Obviously, a 13-point lead is not insurmountable, but it’s surprising in light of SurveyUSA’s other poll showing the GOP’s candidate in another Virginia district, state senator Robert Hurt, leading incumbent Democrat Rep. Tom Perriello by 23 points.

Tags: Morgan Griffith , Rick Boucher , Robert Hurt , Tom Perriello

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