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Tags: Randy Hultgren

Why You Might See Democrats’ Ads on This Site



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A reader, hoping for a little more help for Randy Hultgren, writes in:

[Bill] Foster is trying to paint himself as an independent.  Ironically, as I read your blog on the National Review website, I see that the National Association of Realtors PAC has two banner ads supporting Foster with this exact argument.  Understanding that the National Review needs funding for support like any other business, these ads seem out of place.

Foster is not independent.  He voted with Pelosi 93% of the time and voted with his largest campaign contributor, the SEIU nearly 90% of the time.  He also voted in favor of every single Democratic spending bill.

If the National Review is going to accept funding for ads supporting Foster, again I understand.  But, I’m hoping that you might throw more support Hultgren’s way.  If the Hill’s poll is more accurate than I think, Randy’s going to need as much support as we can give him.

I get these kind of messages with surprising frequency. I know I’ve posted on this before, several times, starting back in spring 2009:

I understand ads for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brian Moran are appearing on this site, at least for Virginia readers. From my location, it even shows up if you look at this post in the archives, which mocks the Washington Post for declaring that he lives “quite literally” in his brother’s shadow.

I figure this is probably some sort of package deal on political blogs, and it’s a free country; Moran can advertise whereever he likes, so long as the check clears. Still, it’s a little amusing to see him advertising on NRO, considering that he hit rival Democrat Terry McAuliffe for accepting fund-raising help from Republican strategist Ed Rogers.

UPDATE: Jerome Armstrong, who’s doing web outreach for Moran, says, “It’s Google ads, we are running them geo-targeted throughout the state. VA is an open primary state. Most likely NRO’s ad broker has a deal with Google for remnant advertising.”

Right now, sitting in Northern Virginia, I see quite a few ads for incumbent Democrat Gerry Connolly, who’s running in the neighboring district. I cannot help but suspect that the click-through rate for a Democratic candidate advertising on NRO is . . . er, less than optimal, but they’re free to try.

So, next time you see a web ad for a Democrat on NRO and it bothers you greatly, keep in mind A) I haven’t seen it and can’t unless I travel to your location and B) I doubt anyone at the organization signed off on it.

Tags: Randy Hultgren

More House Polls Show Good News for GOP in New York, Illinois, and Connecticut



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The dam bursts.

It has burst in Connecticut:

U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has fallen behind Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri according to the CT Capitol Report Poll released today.

Rep. Murphy, the Democratic incumbent in Connecticut’s 5th congressional district, has 44.3 percent to Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri’s 49.7 percent. The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman River Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they will support in the race.

“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says the poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri just outside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey. While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to comeback after falling behind a challenger in the last month.

It has burst in Illinois, where Randy Hultgren is ahead, 44 percent to 38 percent.

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings to the Randy Hultgren for Congress campaign: The Tarrance Group was commissioned to conduct a telephone survey of N=400 registered “likely” voters throughout Illinois’ Fourteenth Congressional District. Arandom sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered October 3-4, 2010. Republican challenger Randy Hultgren’s lead has grown to 6 points in his race against incumbent Democrat Bill Foster. Since our previous survey in September, Hultgren has increased his lead on the ballot from 3 points to 6 points. Turnout modeling suggests that Hultgren would receive 50% of the vote if the election were held today — even with third party candidate on the ballot.

It has burst in New York.

I received this ccAdvertising poll data from a Conservative/GOP consultant, and, considering the history of this firm, suggest you take it with a healthy dose of salt.

The results show three of the eight the competitive NY House races to be very close indeed. In at least one of these districts, NY-24, public polling has shown the incumbent, Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, to be in better shape, leading his GOP opponent, Richard Hanna, by eight percentage points, but under the “magic” 50 percent mark.

This poll shows Republican Nan Hayworth slightly ahead of her Democratic target, Rep. John Hall. Party leaders have grown increasingly concerned about Hall, particularly when it comes to his fundraising, and sent in former President Bill Clinton to help boost his numbers.

The third poll that the article refers to shows a tie between Randy Altschuler and Democrat Tim Bishop.

Sure, some of these polls were commissioned by Republicans. Is it possible the sampling is a little too optimistic? Sure. But unless there is a Research2000 situation, they’re actual polls representing a reasonable sense of turnout in these districts. At worst, these races are competitive for Republicans.

Onward.

Tags: Nan Hayworth , Randy Altschuler , Randy Hultgren , Richard Hanna , Sam Caligiuri

If the NRCC Didn’t Buy Ad Time in Your District, There’s Probably a Reason



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Over at the Club for Growth, David Keating notices the NRCC “Young Guns” who aren’t getting any TV ads from the committee, at least not in the first wave.

At first glance, most of these candidates look like they’re in okay shape and aren’t in dire need of NRCC ads in their district.

AR-2, Tim Griffin: Leads early polling, has a cash advantage on his Democratic rival.

FL-22, Allen West: Phenomenal fund-raiser as is. He’ll need every dime he can get against well-funded Ron Klein, but in the end, West just needs enough to ensure he isn’t blown away in the advertising war.

IL-14, Randy Hultgren: Perhaps he’s one of the more surprising omissions, but it’s a suburban Chicago seat and that means an expensive television market.

NJ-3, Jon Runyan: Former NFL star shouldn’t have a hard time raising additional funds; he’s already given $300,000 to his own campaign.

NM-1, John Barela: He’s sitting on $537,000 in cash, according to his most recent filing.

NY-29, Tom Reed: This seat is deemed one of the seats most likely to flip in November; the NRCC probably concluded Tom Reed is doing fine, at least for now.

OH-13, Tom Ganley: This Republican is just going to have to get by on the $3 million or so he’s given his campaign so far.

PA-8, Michael Fitzpatrick: Pretty expensive media market (Philadelphia). In his last report, Fitzpatrick had more than $660,000 in the bank, so he’s actually well-stocked, even though rival Patrick Murphy has much more.

VA-11, Keith Fimian: Expensive media market (Washington, D.C.). Fimian’s behind in the most recent cash-on-hand numbers, but he’s raised more than $1 million over the course of his campaign.

VA-9, Morgan Griffith: Perhaps a bit surprising, but rival Rick Boucher is already running from Obama, and Griffith is probably going to be outspent no matter how well he raises money. This race will probably come down to whether a deeply conservative district (R+11) wants to keep sending a Democrat to Congress.

UPDATE: Interesting. I am informed that the NRCC did make a late addition to their list, reserving air time for the race in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district to help out Jon Runyan.

Tags: Allen West , Jon Barela , Jon Runyon , Keith Fimian , Michael Fitzpatrick , Morgan Griffith , Randy Hultgren , Tim Griffin , Tom Ganley , Tom Reed

The Things You Learn From a Roomful of House GOP Candidates



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Things I learned at a recent meeting of the “Young Guns” at the National Republican Congressional Committee:

  • In West Virginia, Gov. Joe Manchin, who is likely to be the Democrats’ nominee in the race for the Senate, cannot use the $140,000 left in his gubernatorial campaign fund in a Senate campaign. So he’s effectively starting from scratch. His most likely rival, Republican John Raese, ran against Robert Byrd in 2006 and spent $1.5 million of his own fortune. Manchin is still a favorite, but this is a complication.
  • Andy Barr’s House race in Kentucky will probably be the first one called on election night; polls in Kentucky close at 6 p.m. Eastern. If Barr beats three-term incumbent Ben Chandler, it will be an early indicator of a good night for the GOP.
  • A sleeper issue in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district: The Federal Emergency Management Agency is remapping flood zones, and dramatically expanding the number of counties in this district that are defined as within a flood zone. Homeowners in the expanded zone will have to purchase FEMA-approved flood insurance, at a cost of $2,000 per year. Republican Rick Crawford vehemently opposes the expansion; he accuses Democrat Chad Causey of not having a clear position on the FEMA plan.
  • In Illinois, Randy Hultgren wonders where his opponent, incumbent Democrat Bill Foster, is. He says Foster events are rarely publicized ahead of time, and he rarely if ever does traditional “town hall” meetings. There’s even speculation that Foster doesn’t come back to the district that often; an entire 30 minutes from O’Hare, it’s not like it’s hard to get to from Washington. 
  • Kristi Noem’s early success running in South Dakota’s at-large district against incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has prompted the DCCC to purchase $500,000 in air time in the final two weeks before Election Day. That’s a phenomenal amount of money to spend on one of the least expensive states in the country; a half-million buys a lot of air time in South Dakota.
  • Mick Mulvaney, running against John Spratt in South Carolina, just wants to keep the spending race reasonably close. “If I have enough resources to get my message out, it doesn’t matter how much he has to get his message out.”
  • Plenty of Republicans from districts that McCain won handily — like David McKinley in West Virginia’s 1st district — joked that they would love to see President Obama appear on behalf of their Democratic rivals. But Keith Fimian, running against Democrat Gerry Connolly in northern Virginia’s suburban district, said the same thing. He noted that Obama won the district handily in 2008, but then the GOP’s Bob McDonnell won 55 percent in this district in 2009. This year, Connolly won’t have that helpful Obama wave or any top-of-the-ticket help; this year, he is the top of the ticket.

Tags: Andy Barr , David McKinley , Joe Manchin , Keith Fimian , Kristi Noem , Mick Mulvaney , Randy Hultgren , Rick Crawford

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