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Tags: Rick Crawford

Mostly Good News for GOP in 10 New House Race Polls



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The Hill unveils poll results in ten House districts, mostly open seat races:

Tennessee 8: D: Roy Herron, 37 percent; R: Stephen Fincher, 47 percent

Washington 3: D: Denny Heck, 40 percent; R: Jaime Herrera, 42 percent

Arkansas 1: D: Chad Causey, 34 percent; R: Rick Crawford, 46 percent

Wisconsin 7: D: Julie Lassa, 35 percent; R: Sean Duffy, 44 percent

Illinois 10: D: Dan Seals, 49 percent; R: Robert Dold, 37 percent

Hawaii 1: D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41 percent, R: Charles Djou, 45 percent

Pennsylvania 7: D: Bryan Lentz, 39 percent, R: Patrick Meehan, 40 percent

New Hampshire 2: D: Ann Kuster, 42 percent R: Charlie Bass, 45 percent

Michigan 1: D: Gary McDowell, 39 percent R: Dan Benishek, 42 percent

West Virginia 1: D: Mike Oliverio, 42 percent; R: David McKinley, 39 percent

These are all largely good results for the GOP, although I’m sure they wish they had larger leads in several of these.

Illinois 10 is Mark Kirk’s old seat; that one was always Democrat-heavy and going to be tough to keep in an open seat race. Similar deal for West Virginia’s 1st District. Djou’s lead is perhaps the most substantial surprise.

My guess is that Ace’s Ewok will write another love letter to Sean Duffy before the day is through.

Tags: Charles Djou , Charlie Bass , Dan Benishek , Jaime Herrera , Patrick Meehan , Rick Crawford , Sean Duffy , Stephen Fincher

GOP’s Crawford Leads by 16 in Arkansas Open-Seat House Race



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However rough your Monday turns out to be, it could be worse: You could be in charge of morale at the Arkansas Democratic party.

A new Talk Business Poll conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College shows First District Congressional Republican nominee Rick Crawford with a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Chad Causey. In a survey conducted on Tuesday night, August 17, 2010, Crawford leads Causey 48-32% among 630 likely Arkansas voters in the district. Green Party nominee Ken Adler received 4% of support from those surveyed, while undecided voters stood at 16%.

You can view the full results of the poll and the questions asked at this link.

“This is a truly dramatic result that I believe sets the stage for a very favorable election climate for Republicans in Arkansas.  For Democrats, it is a clear signal that this fall’s election may be the toughest landscape they’ve ever faced in the First,” said Talk Business editor Roby Brock.”

. . . independents are leaning strongly towards the Republican (54-21% with 20% undecided).

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Tuesday, August 17, 2010 among 630 registered Arkansas voters in Congressional District 1 who indicated they were “likely” to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election. 74% of those surveyed have voted in a minimum of 2 of the last 4 general elections. Voters with a less frequent voting history were allowed in the sample to account for younger voters and first-time voters of all ages.

Tags: Chad Causey , Rick Crawford

Three Arkansas Republicans Have an Early Lead



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The Arkansas delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives could shift from 3 Democrats and 1 Republican to 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat, according to the internal polls cited by Jason Tolbert.

Republican Tim Griffin’s lead over Democrat Joyce Elliott is more or less expected; a lead for the GOP’s Steve Womack in John Boozman’s old district is also expected. Republican Rick Crawford leading Chad Causey by 6 in Marion Berry’s old district is a good sign for the GOP. But Beth Ann Rankin still has a steep uphill climb against one of the House’s most prominent Blue Dogs, Mike Ross, trailing by 21.

Tags: Beth Ann Rankin , Rick Crawford , Steve Womack , Tim Griffin

The Things You Learn From a Roomful of House GOP Candidates



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Things I learned at a recent meeting of the “Young Guns” at the National Republican Congressional Committee:

  • In West Virginia, Gov. Joe Manchin, who is likely to be the Democrats’ nominee in the race for the Senate, cannot use the $140,000 left in his gubernatorial campaign fund in a Senate campaign. So he’s effectively starting from scratch. His most likely rival, Republican John Raese, ran against Robert Byrd in 2006 and spent $1.5 million of his own fortune. Manchin is still a favorite, but this is a complication.
  • Andy Barr’s House race in Kentucky will probably be the first one called on election night; polls in Kentucky close at 6 p.m. Eastern. If Barr beats three-term incumbent Ben Chandler, it will be an early indicator of a good night for the GOP.
  • A sleeper issue in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district: The Federal Emergency Management Agency is remapping flood zones, and dramatically expanding the number of counties in this district that are defined as within a flood zone. Homeowners in the expanded zone will have to purchase FEMA-approved flood insurance, at a cost of $2,000 per year. Republican Rick Crawford vehemently opposes the expansion; he accuses Democrat Chad Causey of not having a clear position on the FEMA plan.
  • In Illinois, Randy Hultgren wonders where his opponent, incumbent Democrat Bill Foster, is. He says Foster events are rarely publicized ahead of time, and he rarely if ever does traditional “town hall” meetings. There’s even speculation that Foster doesn’t come back to the district that often; an entire 30 minutes from O’Hare, it’s not like it’s hard to get to from Washington. 
  • Kristi Noem’s early success running in South Dakota’s at-large district against incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has prompted the DCCC to purchase $500,000 in air time in the final two weeks before Election Day. That’s a phenomenal amount of money to spend on one of the least expensive states in the country; a half-million buys a lot of air time in South Dakota.
  • Mick Mulvaney, running against John Spratt in South Carolina, just wants to keep the spending race reasonably close. “If I have enough resources to get my message out, it doesn’t matter how much he has to get his message out.”
  • Plenty of Republicans from districts that McCain won handily — like David McKinley in West Virginia’s 1st district — joked that they would love to see President Obama appear on behalf of their Democratic rivals. But Keith Fimian, running against Democrat Gerry Connolly in northern Virginia’s suburban district, said the same thing. He noted that Obama won the district handily in 2008, but then the GOP’s Bob McDonnell won 55 percent in this district in 2009. This year, Connolly won’t have that helpful Obama wave or any top-of-the-ticket help; this year, he is the top of the ticket.

Tags: Andy Barr , David McKinley , Joe Manchin , Keith Fimian , Kristi Noem , Mick Mulvaney , Randy Hultgren , Rick Crawford

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