Heh:

The predictable buzz from the state Democratic Party convention was, “Watch out, Gov. Scott Walker. We’re coming for you next year!”

But when the question became exactly who Democrats will field to stop Walker from winning a second term in November 2014, the answer was: “We’ll get back to you . . .”

The argument for Walker’s alleged supreme vulnerability in a 2014 election sounds a lot like the one for Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Both states have plenty of Democrats who have run for statewide office, won races for statewide office, or mentioned interest in running for some other statewide office in the future. But for some strange reason, no Democrat has decided to run against the guy they insist is so beatable . . .

From the Thursday edition of the Morning Jolt:

Welcome to the Post-Wisconsin World

Reuters doesn’t spare Obama in their assessment of Wisconsin after the recall:

Republican Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s recall victory raised numerous warning flags for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats, who badly flunked the first big political test of the 2012 campaign

Walker’s surprisingly easy win over Democrat Tom Barrett on Tuesday was fueled by a big turnout from a motivated Republican base of voters, and by heavy spending by out-of-state conservatives who flooded Wisconsin with campaign cash.

Both trends raised difficult questions for Obama’s re-election campaign, which has struggled to match the enthusiasm of his 2008 White House run and compete financially with the huge sums of money being raised by conservative outside groups ahead of the November 6 election.

The important thing is that Walker’s foes have learned pretty much nothing from all this:

The state’s largest public teachers union spent around $4 million on Gov. Scott Walker’s recall election, much of that on Kathleen Falk’s failed bid for the Democratic nomination, something union leaders say they don’t regret.

“We were all chips in because we had nothing to lose,” said Dan Burkhalter, executive director of the Wisconsin Education Association Council, referring to efforts by the governor and Republican legislators to cut public school funding and all but end collective bargaining for most public employees.

WEAC President Mary Bell said the union supported Falk because she got into the recall race much earlier than Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and for many weeks Walker “had the field to himself” and was able to run many ads touting his accomplishments.

The governor “had the bigger megaphone,” Bell said in a meeting Wednesday afternoon with the Journal Sentinel’s editors and reporters.

Oh, hogwash. It’s not like voters didn’t know who Tom Barrett was and what he stood for, and it’s not like they didn’t know who Scott Walker was and what he stood for. In post-election analyses like these, sore losers behave as if the other guy’s ads have this magic, hypnotic ability to get people to vote against their own interests, while their own ads have no ability to persuade. I mean, it’s entirely possible that the Wisconsin teachers’ unions ran lousy ads, but that’s their own fault, not a ‘size of megaphone’ issue.

One day after Walker withstood the recall attempt, Bell and Burkhalter said they were unsure whether the governor will be open to discussing public education in the state.

“We have to find a better way to have a civil dialogue,” said Bell.

Helpful hint: Stop calling the governor Hitler. Oh, and remember how the AFSCME had their membership drop by 55 percent within one year? The teachers unions are seeing a milder version of the same dropoff:

Since the collective bargaining measure was enacted last year, WEAC’s membership has dropped from around 90,000 to 70,000 but the remaining membership became energized by the recall and union leaders are hopeful that passion will continue as the union rallies around issues such as public school funding. The union is working on membership drives this summer.

“I think we will be smaller but stronger,” Bell said.

Like the new Newsweek, Wisconsin teachers’ unions aren’t getting less popular, they’re just choosing to appeal to a more exclusive audience!

At Forbes.com, Bill Frezza argues that in the long run, all public sector unions appear doomed:

The power of private sector unions was long ago broken by many heavily unionized companies going bankrupt. While this was painful for both workers and shareholders, the economy motored on as nimbler non-union competitors picked up the slack. This approach is problematic for the public sector because bankrupt state and local governments cannot be replaced by competitors waiting in the wings. Yes, citizens can always vote with their feet, emptying out cities like Detroit, leaving the blighted wreckage behind. But isn’t Walker’s targeted fiscal retrenchment less painful than scorched-earth abandonment?

Today through Sunday I’ll be journeying to Providence, Rhode Island, for the Heritage Foundation and Franklin Center for Government & Public Integrity’s Future of Journalism Summit. Campaign Spot blogging may be light in the coming days . . . 

Believe it or not, by winning his recall election -  by a 57 percent to 42 percent margin at this hour – Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has done his foes – the Wisconsin Democratic Party, the public sector unions, the progressives and angry leftists – a favor.

He has liberated them from the soothing illusion that they are popular, and that the public agrees with them.

How do you think the leadership of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees felt when their membership fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011? How do you think they greeted the sudden realization that more than half of the members, given the option of leaving and cease paying union dues, headed for the exits?

The leadership of the unions have done a terrible job – and have spent years convinced that the membership loved them, and that the public thought well of them as well. That may have been true at some point, but it is no longer the case, and no amount of spin can change that. Better for these organizations to confront the hard truth, and work to earn back that trust of members and the public at large, than to insist that all is well and ignore the problems.

Tonight Scott Walker and his GOP allies did a favor the Obama campaign, too. They assured them that their classification of Wisconsin as a swing state was accurate, and that in the “dry run that we need of our massive, significant, dynamic grassroots presidential campaign” that DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz promised, the Wisconsin Democrats failed miserably. At this hour, Walker is winning by roughly a 200,000 vote margin.

It’s Tuesday, Recall Election Day in Wisconsin. I wonder if MSNBC will see a surge in viewers tonight, as optimistic (but hopefully not overconfident) righties tune in to watch the hosts’ collective meltdown?

From the Morning Jolt today:

It’s Decision Day in America’s Dairyland!

If you live in Wisconsin, go vote. But you probably know that already. If you know someone in Wisconsin,you may want to encourage tehm to vote, but… consdierhin how thye’ve been at the epicenter of a political earthquake and about two years’ worth of aftershocks, they probably know it’s recall election day already. They may just scream in response, “LEAVE ME ALONE!”

And you really can’t blame them:

A bitterly contested state Supreme Court race in April 2011 — when incumbent Justice David Prosser narrowly survived a recount — was followed by a state Senate recall primary and general elections through the summer, municipal voting in February, the presidential primary in April and more recall primaries on May 8, including one for governor.

If there’s any state that epitomizes what the permanent campaign feels like, it’s this one. Wisconsin voters essentially have been asked to cast ballots every 60 days for more than a year, and they’ve been exposed to a relentless barrage of television and radio advertisements, mailers, phone calls, yard signs, stump speeches and debates.

All told, close to $110 million in political advertising has been spent through May 21, according to Mike McCabe of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks such spending, and it’s left residents with a bad case of election fatigue.

I’ve been checking in at the liberal blog FireDogLake to see how the lefty grassroots are taking the Wisconsin developments. David Dayen writes:

Labor keeps insisting that they have a superior ground game, and even the DNC has said this is a “dry run” for November (I would argue that it’s not all that dry, giving the implications of a union-busting Governor beating back a labor-led surge). This is an opportunity to test the voter turnout systems for the fall.

Ultimately, however, one must acknowledge that no public poll has shown Barrett in front. That argues strongly that Walker will be able to hold on. He goes into Election Day a small favorite. Moreover, with public employee union membership in the state declining as the anti-collective bargaining law gets implemented, as was the point, this could represent a high-water mark from an electoral standpoint for labor in the state. They will not have the funds anymore as their membership gets decimated. The larger war, to drain funds from a Democratic-friendly source, has been fought and concluded, in many respects. Building worker power becomes that much harder when the right to organize is restricted. I don’t know what the answer is post-recall, but it probably doesn’t lie with elections.

Walker has won the campaign spending and advertising war, for whatever that’s worth:

Walker, the Republican Governors Association, and independent tea party groups and other grassroots fiscal conservative organizations have spent around $2.484 million to run ads in the recall campaign over the past week, according to data provided to its clients by Kantar Media/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that tracks and estimates the costs of campaign television ads. That’s more than double the $1.125 million Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Walker’s Democratic challenger, Democratic Party committees and independent progressive groups have spent to run commercials from last Monday through Sunday. Overall nearly $3.6 million has been spent to flood Wisconsin airwaves with recall spots the past week.

If Barrett loses, expect to hear a lot of Democrats insisting, without much compelling evidence, that they would have won handily if their side had just spent more money. Of course, if a Democratic takeover of the governorship of a swing state – and a warning to every other GOP governor who dares cross public sector unions – was just a matter of spending more money… why wouldn’t the DNC or its allied groups spend the bucks necessary?

For what it’s worth, Conservative Art Critic over at Ace of Spades, who has been following this recall obsessively – but in the good way – makes his final projection of 52 percent to 48 percent.  Nate Silver concludes, “If we put Walker’s lead in WI polls into our forecasting model, it would give him about a 95% chance of beating Barrett.”

Campaign Spot reader Steve gives us a Wisconsin recall report from the Pirates-Brewers game:

I drove from Chicago to Milwaukee on Sunday to watch my beloved Pittsburgh Pirates defeat the Milwaukee Brewers. During the third inning, the jumbotron began showing random crowd shots (which had the attention of the crowd and generated friendly cheers) – the cute baby in the Brewers jumper, the shirtless guys with beers, the pretty girls dancing to the music. Then, the camera panned to a guy holding up a “Vote Barrett” sign. The crowd erupted…in boos! These were significant, sustained boos. I asked the couple seated next to me – a young couple that didn’t appear to be regular CPAC attendees or anything -  about the situation and they said, “Barrett’s got no chance. People are sick of this thing.”

Jim, I read the data and insights ably provided by National Review and realize that things are going well for Walker and I’m not reporting any new news. But it’s always nice to confirm the numbers you are seeing with strong anecdotal/local evidence. This was it for me. Walker in a landslide.

From the last Morning Jolt of the week:

Here’s What Happens When Government Stops Collecting Dues for Unions

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Wisconsin membership in the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — the state’s second-largest public-sector union after the National Education Association, which represents teachers — fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011, according to a person who has viewed Afscme’s figures. A spokesman for Afscme declined to comment.

Much of that decline came from Afscme Council 24, which represents Wisconsin state workers, whose membership plunged by two-thirds to 7,100 from 22,300 last year.

A provision of the Walker law that eliminated automatic dues collection hurt union membership. When a public-sector contract expires the state now stops collecting dues from the affected workers’ paychecks unless they say they want the dues taken out, said Peter Davis, general counsel of the Wisconsin Employment Relations Commission.

In many cases, Afscme dropped members from its rolls after it failed to get them to affirm they want dues collected, said a labor official familiar with Afscme’s figures. In a smaller number of cases, membership losses were due to worker layoffs.

Looks like a lot of public sector workers may like their unions . . . but not enough to keep paying the dues if they have the option. Like, two-thirds of them.

Apply this across the country . . . and you’re talking about the evisceration of one of the Democratic Party’s most important political allies — a game-changer in politics in so many states. Compulsory union-dues collection was the glue that kept the whole operation together. Ed Schultz may be exaggerating when he says a Republican win means America will never elect a Democratic president again . . . but his vision might not be that wildly exaggerated.

Over at the lefty blog FireDogLake, David Dayen notes, “The state president of the American Federation of Teachers is quoted in the article saying that a failure in the recall spells doom for unions nationwide. There’s a lot of truth to that. And that’s why it was so important for the national funding to flow into Wisconsin to take a stand here . . .”

Rick Moran writes:

There is a lot at stake for organized labor in this recall vote. But perhaps not unexpectedly, the voting public has largely moved on from the collective bargaining controversy and now see jobs and jobs creation as the primary issue for the recall vote. A win will be interpreted by labor bosses as vindication rather than a general unhappiness with the Wisconsin economy. That only proves how truly out of touch they are with ordinary people who don’t see the unions representing their interests anymore.

Our Bob Costa takes a closer look at the phenomenon of shrinking unions in Wisconsin on NRO today.

RNC chairman Reince Priebus on a conference call discussing the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election:

“The RNC is all in in Wisconsin . . . Judging from Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s token appearance in the state today, and Stephanie Cutter’s comments on MSNBC today, apparently [Obama for America] and the DNC are all in . . . We’re looking forward to seeing what their top-notch ground game will accomplish in November. Democrats have been all over the map on Tom Barrett and this Wisconsin recall.”

“To highlight the GOP unity for Scott Walker, we’ve announced a partnership with multiple state parties throughout the Midwest. Not only is the RNC full-bore on money and ground effort with Wisconsin, but also Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota state GOPs are assisting with volunteers as well. We’re announcing competitions for both state party and individual competition. We’ve made two million volunteer voter contacts in the state already, and we’re identifying nearly every Wisconsin voter. For perspective, it took the Obama campaign a year to make a million contacts nationwide.”

“We’re feeling very good about how we’re doing on absentee ballots right now.”

“If Wisconsin goes red, it’s lights out for Barack Obama. Putting it in the red column for the first time since 1984 would be a really big deal . . .  I don’t think there’s a state in the country where the GOP knows the voters better than Wisconsin . . . We’ve been analyzing this state for two and a half years. Contacting two and a half million voters, having all of that consumer data, the Prosser election, the state legislative recall challenges . . . You have a pattern here of success that is going to make it easier to win here in November.”

“We’re not seeing any fatigue on our side at all. One of the biggest problems that the Democrats have is that a decent number of Democrats tell pollsters and in focus groups, ‘we may not be Republicans, but we think this recall stuff is out of control. A legislative disagreement with Walker is not enough to have a recall and spend millions of dollars on that.’ To many Democrats, this is absurd. That’s a problem in their turnout model that they don’t know what to do with.”

“The idea of tracking early votes is not a process that is unknown or a vague reality to the state and national parties. We track early votes every day. We know what’s turned in. We know, to a reasonable degree of certainty, how those ballots look in comparison to the voting propensity of those voters, people who we believe to be GOP voters. We know if there are any major problems in early and absentee ballots. We feel very good right now about where we’re sitting regarding absentee ballots.”

“I’m always concerned about voter fraud. Being from Kenosha, I’ve seen it happen. We’ve seen it in Milwaukee. I think we need to be a point or two better than we think we are. Voter ID is constitutional and it has been upheld by the Supreme Court.” (Voter ID laws will not be in effect for the recall elections.)

Wednesday’s Morning Jolt features lot of discussion on Greece, a look at the Obama campaign’s continuing emphasis on the candidate’s personal narrative, and then this development in America’s Dairyland:

End the Division in Wisconsin! Obey the Will of Public-Sector Unions!

We’re one week away from the Wisconsin recall election.

The Walker campaign sent along word:

Governor Scott Walker’s campaign announced today that it has raised more than $5 million between April 24, 2012 and May 21, 2012 from a total of 54,112 contributions. 39,813 of those contributions were $50 or less, representing 73.5% of the overall number of contributions.

“More than 73 percent of our contributions were for $50 or less, showing that as the election draws closer, Governor Walker’s grassroots support is as strong as ever,” said Ciara Matthews, communications director for Friends of Scott Walker. “Governor Walker’s reforms have proven successful for the state by saving taxpayers more than $1 billion and helping to create more than 35,000 jobs since January 2011. It is because of this tremendous success that voters continue to stand with Governor Walker.”

The Walker campaign finished the quarter with a combined total of more than $1.6 million cash on hand in the recall and general campaign funds. The campaign has raised more than $20 million since January 1, 2012.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democrats, who fled the state to avoid voting on Walker’s reforms, who let protesters take over the state capitol for several days, who compared the governor to Hitler, and who forced a referendum for recalls of state legislators and the governor’s recall (putting state voters through seven elections in one year), have coalesced behind one final closing argument: Scott Walker has divided the state.

Really.

So the only way to unite the state is to give Wisconsin Democrats what they want!

In related news, the head of a public-sector union in Wisconsin was seen in public with a staff and helmet with giant horns, declaring that the era of pluralism and public disagreement must end, and adding, “Is not this simpler? Is this not your natural state? It’s the unspoken truth of humanity that you crave subjugation. The bright lure of freedom diminishes your life’s joy in a mad scramble for power. For identity. You were made to be ruled. In the end, you will always kneel.”

The Scott Walker campaign is up on the air with a new ad that spotlights the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s investigative report uncovering hundreds of crimes misreported by the Milwaukee Police Department — seriously undermining Tom Barrett’s claim that crime has declined on his watch.

Apparently the explanation from the Milwaukee Police Department is that it was a . . . “coding error.”

A pair of Republican lawmakers sent a strongly-worded letter Friday to Mayor Tom Barrett that asks him to call for an independent audit of the Milwaukee Police Department’s flawed crime data.

The request for an outside review is based on a Journal Sentinel investigation that found more than 500 cases of aggravated assault were misreported as lesser crimes in the past three years.

Police Chief Edward Flynn defended his department Friday following a public roll call on the city’s north side. He said calls for an outside audit of his department amount to “political reindeer games.”

“Clearly we have got a coding error for one particular crime that’s apparently held up over several years,” Flynn told reporters.

Barrett thinks his department deserves credit for asking for an audit last year: “I am certainly going to look at that and see what steps are necessary after that,” Barrett said. “But I applaud my police department for asking for this audit. This was not something that they had to do.”

It’s amazing how fast the conventional wisdom shifts. I have been cautiously optimistic about Governor Scott Walker’s odds in the Wisconsin recall; polls have pretty consistently put him right around 50 percent and his rival, Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, in the mid-40s.

Along comes Mike Allen of Politico on MSNBC this morning: “Every indication now is that he’s going to win big.”

Joe Scarborough actually cuts him off in surprise at how Allen so casually asserts that the recall isn’t expected to be close.

“The Left, labor, Democrats, which planned to embarrass him, instead have made him a national figure with a very bright future,” Allen continues. “It was money poured down the drain by Democrats and the Left in a presidential election year.”

John Heilemann chimes in, “You notice the White House, the reelection committee in Chicago, they’ve stayed away from Wisconsin. They’ve done these big ad buys, they picked their nine states, Wisconsin not on that list. The reason is they wanted to see how this turned out. They have kept their distance from it.”

Today the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel unveils a special report, revealing that the Milwaukee Police Department has been misreporting and misclassifying violent crimes — hundreds of beatings, stabbings and child abuse cases — resulting in public summaries that claim violent crime is decreasing in the city… when the numbers are actually increasing modestly.

It’s pretty horrifying:

At the request of the Journal Sentinel, FBI crime experts reviewed these and dozens of other incidents and confirmed that they should have been labeled as aggravated assaults. In addition to the more than 500 misreported incidents, the investigation found at least 800 more that fit the same pattern but could not be confirmed through available public records. The Journal Sentinel has submitted an open records request for those cases.

The misclassified crimes included cases where perpetrators threatened to kill victims; stabbed or cut them with knives; and beat them with canes, crowbars and hammers.

Nearly one-third of the assault cases identified by the Journal Sentinel involved the abuse of children – most were struck in the head with belts and electrical cords, causing cuts, bloody eardrums and black eyes.

Instead of accurately reporting the weapons used as firearms, knives or blunt objects, the department reported them to the state and FBI in a way that avoided triggering scrutiny by those who review the numbers.

Criminologists reviewed the Journal Sentinel’s findings and said they showed a pattern of misreporting that has helped drive down the city’s crime rate.

And the phenomenon is too frequent to be simple human error:

Sam Walker, criminology professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, said the Journal Sentinel’s investigation identified patterns that raise questions about the department’s procedures.

“That clearly indicates a systemic problem in the department – there has to be a failure of leadership,” he said. “If (police) do it in one or two cases, it’s not a big deal. If they do it in a large number of cases, it’s suspicious and probably improper. It’s something that needs to be corrected immediately.”

Why are you reading about this on a political blog? Well, one would wonder how high this effort to misrepresent crime statistics went up – was it just in the police department, or did it come from someplace higher? Where was the mayor during all this?

After all, the mayor isn’t shy about bragging about these declines: “I’m extremely pleased to report that in the last four years, we’ve seen dramatic declines in both violent and property crime.  Between 2007 and 2011, total crime decreased 21.1 percent.  This number translates into 25,508 fewer crime victims.  The hard work of the Milwaukee Police Department is having a profound impact on our neighborhoods.”

Say, who is the mayor of Milwaukee? Tom Barrett? Where do I know that name?

Ah yes, he’s the Democrat challenging Scott Walker in the recall election. Say, let’s look at his campaign web site: “Tom has worked with law enforcement, community groups and residents to develop proactive strategies, and he has empowered the city’s police department with the resources and strong leadership it needs to get the job done. As a result, violent crime in Milwaukee has decreased by 20% over the past two years, and homicides are at the lowest levels in more than 20 years.”

Oh, are they, Mr. Mayor? Just how much faith do you have in those figures?

MoveOn.org just sent the following inspiring message to their followers:

From: Daniel Mintz, MoveOn.org Political Action <moveon-help@list.moveon.org>

Date: Wed, May 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Subject: DNC underfunding the Walker recall?

Dear MoveOn member,

BREAKING NEWS FROM WISCONSIN: The Democratic National Committee is refusing requests to fund the massive get out the vote effort planned in Wisconsin to recall Scott Walker.1

Wisconsin is ground zero for Democrats this summer—and there are only three weeks before Election Day—which is why this breaking news just doesn’t make sense. Scott Walker and his right-wing allies have spent millions, and they’ll spend millions more in the next few weeks. But Walker’s poll numbers won’t budge and if the Wisconsin Democrats can run the massive field program they have planned, we can win this. Obama for America organizers are hard at work in the state, but the DNC’s lack of support has left a huge hole in the get out the vote budget. So MoveOn members need to step up. Can you help recall Walker?

Chip in $5 to the Wisconsin Democrats on ActBlue to beat Scott Walker.Wisconsin citizens, with the support of activists from all around the country, have accomplished more than anyone thought possible. They’ve inspired all of us, and put fear into the hearts of other governors who wanted to attack the 99%. But if Walker survives the recall, we’ll have wasted a year of effort.

With only a few weeks left, the DNC is feeling the heat and says they may provide more help, but we can’t wait for them. We have to do it ourselves.Can you chip in $5 today via ActBlue to make sure that Scott Walker is finally recalled from office?

Thanks for all you do.

What’s your favorite part? Beginning with the news that the DNC is refusing to pay for get-out-the-vote efforts, the befuddled lament that “this breaking news just doesn’t make sense” — almost as if the DNC thinks it would be throwing its money away or something! — or the declaration that “Walker’s poll numbers won’t budge”? (Hint: When Walker is ahead, it’s not good news for MoveOn’s target demographic that they won’t budge.)

“If Walker survives the recall, we’ll have wasted a year of effort.” If Walker keeps his current lead on Election Day, we should remind them of that when they start talking about “moral victories” and “sending a message.”

On MSNBC, Chuck Todd just asked Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutter, if the DNC – controlled by Obama, remember – would be sending financial assistance to Tom Barrett, Wisconsin Democrats, and other folks hoping to unseat Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in next month’s recall.

“I have no idea,” she said repeatedly. She emphasized that the campaign would be trying to mobilize volunteers and other non-financial means of helping Democrats in that state.

Two observations:

1) There is no way that the deputy campaign manager of the Obama campaign does not know whether a national organization with $24 million in the bank will allocate $500,000 to unseat a Republican governor in a swing state five months before Election Day.

2) If the answer is not “yes,” it is “no.”

Interesting: The DNC is refusing to kick in $500,000 to help Wisconsin Democrats unseat Scott Walker.

The DNC has $24.4 million cash-on-hand as of late April.

The unnamed Wisconsin Democrat quoted in the above report says, “we’re even in the polls, this is a winnable race.” The polling doesn’t quite bear that out; one poll had Barrett ahead in February.

UPDATE: Wow. No wonder folks who loathe Scott Walker need money:

After refining the dataset created by Verify the Recall, a Wisconsin man began running it against other public records and discovered 571 tax delinquents signed Recall petitions.His findings? The total in back taxes owed by petitioners is more than $17 million. The list of individuals can be found through the website, www.putwisconsinfirst.com

With Wisconsin’s recall election season underway today, Governor Scott Walker is up on the air with a new ad:

The script:

Narrator: Scott Walker has provided more funding for healthcare than any previous Wisconsin governor. 

Governor Walker: Well, the truth is we added more than $1.2 billion to programs like this. 

Woman 1: Really?

Woman 2: A billion? 

Governor Walker: Yeah, in fact we added more funding for Medicaid programs like BadgerCare than any previous governor. And by becoming more efficient, we’ve been able to help more seniors, working families and our most vulnerable.

 Narrator: Scott Walker.  Investing in healthcare.  Leading Wisconsin forward.

I suppose this disrupts the “heartless miser” attack from Wisconsin Democrats, although it is a little odd to see a Republican incumbent running ads about spending more.

It is easy to overstate the ramifications from one race in June on the national elections to come in November. But if the Democrats’ effort to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fails, it is not unthinkable that this could be the first domino to fall in a sequence that dooms President Obama’s reelection hopes.

First, almost all of the polling between Walker and his newly-nominated Democratic rival, Tom Barrett, shows a close race, often with a small Walker lead. Barrett may very well get a boost from winning the primary; no Republican should underestimate the scale of the challenge before Walker and his supporters right now.

But what’s fascinating is that the issue that allegedly prompted the recall, Walker’s changes to state collective bargaining rights, have evaporated as a political issue. Only twelve percent of Democratic primary voters picked “restoring collective bargaining rights for public employees,” as the most important consideration in their choice of a nominee; twice that percentage said “beating Scott Walker.”

There’s a lot of evidence that the primary driving issue in the recall is Wisconsin Democrats’ uncontrollable loathing of Walker. Barrett did not mention “collective bargaining” in his Election Night message. Instead, he said “what I’ve heard from Wisconsinites is that they want an end to the political turmoil caused by Scott Walker.” Right on Barrett’s web site right now, the headline is not, “vote Barrett.” It says, “Defeat Scott Walker.”

(Just to clarify, Wisconsin Democrats fled the state, had noisy rallies disrupt the state legislature, saw vandalism in the state capitol building, compared Scott Walker to Adolf Hitler, pushed for recalls of every Republican in the state legislature they could and the state Supreme Court, and now the governor… and they want an end to “political turmoil.”)

Of course, the recall effort is not going the way Democrats had planned. After collecting about 900,000 valid signatures, Democrats held a primary… and their top two candidates collected 619,049 votes between them. Walker, with no real opposition in his primary, won 626,538 votes — suggesting the Wisconsin Republican grassroots enthusiasm runs a lot hotter than anyone expected. Democrats can console themselves knowing that at least once you throw in their lesser-known candidates, they came out with about 670,000 votes.

Still, about 230,000 folks signed the recall petitions and then didn’t vote in the primary, raising the question of how many people signed the petition just to get the clipboard person to go away. Election fatigue is a real factor in this state. Since 2010, Wisconsin voters have been to the polls in April 2011 (a statewide judicial election) July 2011 (state legislative recall primaries) August 2011 (state legislative recall general election) the county primary (February 2012) the state’s presidential primary (April 2012), this month’s recall primary, next month’s recall general election, and then the primary for the Senate and House in August. Oh, and then there’s November’s general election.

Almost all of these efforts have been a giant vacuum on the financial resources on both sides. The good news for Wisconsin Republicans is that they have more to show for their efforts; Wisconsin Democrats, unions, and affiliated groups have spent two years and millions upon millions to win two state Senate seats.

Could all of this add up to trouble for Barack Obama in Wisconsin? Well, every dollar and man-hour spent in these quixotic recall efforts is a dollar and man-hour not spent working on Obama’s reelection effort. At some point, the passions of some of Wisconsin’s grassroots Democrats will burn out and the state’s voters may tune out a lot of political messages between now and November.

If the message of Republican extremism, and the innate goodness and nobility of public sector unions fails, time and again, in a state like Wisconsin… just how much better can an incumbent president running on the same theme do across the country?

Of course, polls show President Obama with a pretty consistent and pretty healthy lead in Wisconsin. But in the past six months, Rasmussen’s polls of likely voters have had Obama’s lead in the mid-single digits. Also note that according to Gallup, self-identified Republicans make 40.9 percent of the electorate (up from 36.2 in 2009). Self-identified Democrats still make up a larger share at 45.3 percent, but that’s down from 48.2 percent in 2009. President Obama’s approval was at 47.4 percent in Wisconsin in 2011, down from 57.7 percent in 2009. Any state that replaces Russ Feingold with Ron Johnson is experiencing a dramatic political metamorphosis.

With a promising Senate pickup opportunity in the state and the former state party chair, Reince Priebus, now running the Republican National Committee, the GOP will be watching Wisconsin with the closest of eyes for any opportunity to nudge it into the GOP column.

Perhaps most importantly, Wisconsin was a state few ever thought President Obama would have to lift a finger to win; he won more than 56 percent of the vote there in 2008. Wisconsin is a “nice to have” state for Romney but a “if we lose it, we’re in big trouble” state for Obama. If Romney’s looking competitive in Wisconsin in October 2012, then Barack Obama is probably in dire straits. Demographically, Wisconsin is 83 percent white, more blue-collar than the national average, slightly less young than the national average, slightly fewer college-educated than the national average, and much more rural than the national average. If Wisconsin looks iffy for Obama in the fall, how much better will he be doing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa?

Fans of Scott Walker had argued his victory in the recall was as important, or even more important, than the presidential race. With the two races intertwined, is it too much to ask for both?

Relax, Wisconsin Democrats. I’m sure it’s completely, totally normal for the party to schedule a “unity rally” to dispel the notion of lingering bad blood after a primary for the gubernatorial recall election, and then suddenly cancels the unity rally “after serious discussion.”

It’s because they want an extra day to work on “voter contact,” really!

It is, in no way, the “[tushie]-covering propaganda” that the Daily Kos folk are saying. Nor should anyone put any stock in the assertions over there:

I don’t know why the rally was canceled, but there has been widespread, unsubstantiated speculation that the front runner in the primary, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, decided at the last minute not to attend. The rumor being spread is that Tom Barrett does not want to be seen in the company of union leaders and union members for fear of having images of his participation in the rally being used against him by the Walker campaign.

Others are speculating that the whole thing is a last-minute dirty trick perpetrated by supporters of Kathleen Falk. Barrett has a wide lead over Falk in the most recent polls. Is it really Barrett who backed out, or did somebody design a set of conditions for the rally that they knew would force Barrett to back out so they could smear him?

Obviously, Wisconsin Democrats are so completely, totally unified, that a unity rally would just be superfluous. Really.

Public Policy Polling has completed its latest survey in Wisconsin, looking at the recall election effort against GOP governor Scott Walker, and the results are generally positive for Walker — though his leads are certainly not large enough for supporters to breathe easily yet.

Overall, Walker enjoys 51 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. The Democrats will hold a primary to detemine their gubernatorial candidate for the recall election; Walker leads Tom Barrett 50 percent to 45 percent; he leads Kathleen Falk 50 percent to 43 percent; he leads Doug La Follette 51 percent to 40 percent; and he leads Kathleen Vinehout 50 percent to 38 percent.

The sample splits 31 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 37 percent independent or other, and the sample split by gender 54 percent women, 46 percent men.

Obviously, turnout for a special recall election could be quite different from that in a “regular” election. But for what it’s worth the 2010 Election Day exit poll in Wisconsin had a sample split 50–50 by gender and split by party as 37 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent or other.

The poll surveyed 1,136 likely voters and was conducted April 13–15.

Scott Walker is up on the air, pointing out that he has, in less than two years in office, kept many of his promises and the outlook for Wisconsin is significantly brighter.

Walker: Hi, I’m Scott Walker. In the three years before I was elected, Wisconsin lost 150,000 jobs. We promised to help employers create jobs. Today, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate, it’s the lowest it’s been since 2008. We kept our promise to balance the budget without raising taxes, and without massive layoffs, protecting jobs, and eliminating a $3.6 billion deficit.

We promised to hold the line on property taxes, and after years of tax increases, school property taxes actually went down. Because public employees now contribute to their health and pension benefits, we were able to put more money back into the classroom, increase funding for healthcare for our seniors, and keep thousands of firefighters, police officers, and teachers on the job. We can’t go back to the days of billion dollar budget deficits and double digit tax increases. Help me oppose the recall, and let’s use the foundation we’ve built to keep moving Wisconsin forward.

If there is a recall election, it may be held a little later than everyone expected:

Wisconsin’s municipal clerks are supporting a delay in any likely recall elections against the governor, lieutenant governor, and four Republican state senators. Election officials have until March 19th to certify recall petitions and order elections. On that time table, primaries would be held on April 24th.

Diane Hermann-Brown of the Wisconsin Municipal Clerks Association says that creates a problem because of how clerks need to store the data from the April 3rd election. Voting machines used in the majority of the state require a specific type of memory card, which needs to be held for a month before it can be erased. The machines are nearly 20-years-old and extra memory devices are not available.

Hermann-Brown says having a second election in April would likely require ballots to be counted by hand. It could also put a major strain on their already tight resources because of the time needed to set up any election.

The GAB plans to ask a judge for a delay in ordering any recall elections, possibly putting a primary in May and the general election in June. The board will meet March 12 to determine how much of an extension it plans to seek.

The midweek edition of the Morning Jolt examines Rick Santorum’s thoughts on the devil, Sheldon Adelson’s spending spree to create a President Gingrich, and then these two concluding thoughts . . .

Put Not Your Faith in Always-Entertaining Pundits

At Hot Air, Tina Korbe informs us:

On Don Imus’ radio program this morning, CNN contributor James Carville boldly proclaimed that no Republican will beat Obama in 2012.

He didn’t say, though, that Barack Obama cannot lose. Oh, no. Events could conspire against him:

The only way the president will lose according to Carville is if some event takes place and changes things. He maintained it wouldn’t be the result of the GOP nominee outshining Obama.

“Right now, things are starting to perk up a little bit,” he said. “Who knows? This is the — no Republican can beat Obama. Events can beat Obama. He’s not going to get beat by a Republican. Now events could come in and cause him to lose the election. But that’s it right now. That was not the case three months ago.”

“Events” like, oh, I don’t know, an uptick in foreclosures last month or persistently high unemployment (it’s climbing toward 9 percent again!)

Hey, just as a reminder, James Carville’s last book: “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.”

ADDENDA: Your “Mwa-ha-ha-ha-ha!” thought of the day, courtesy Ace at the Ace of Spades: If the signatures calling for a recall election are verified and the state goes ahead with the recall election, when the day of the Democratic primary arrives, “It is an open primary so anyone with a Wisconsin drivers license or ID can vote in it. If you so agree please go vote and ‘write in’ Scott Walker in the line provided for write in candidates. If he receives enough votes, there won’t be a recall because he can’t run against himself. It would save the state of Wisconsin the exorbitant election fees. In the neighborhood of $2.3 million. If you agree with this, please pass it on. There is a face-book page and a web site set up to drum up support, and it has been going strong so far. Let’s at least try to stop this dead in its tracks.”

I realize Ash Wednesday is not the ideal day for a “Mwa-ha-ha-ha-ha!” thought, but sometimes you have to enjoy these opportunities as they arrive.