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Tags: Kurt Schrader

Obama: Vote Out Minimum Wage Hike Opponents! Let’s Start With Three . . .



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President Obama, yesterday:

If your member of Congress doesn’t support raising the minimum wage, you’ve got to let them know they’re out of step, and that if they keep putting politics ahead of working Americans, you’ll put them out of office.

Does that apply to the three House Democrats who voted against it who are up for reelection this year? John Barrow of Georgia, Colin Peterson of Minnesota, and Kurt Schrader of Oregon all voted “no” last month, and the DCCC is pulling out all the stops to ensure Barrow, Peterson, and Schrader are reelected.

Jim Matheson of Utah, Mike McIntyre of North Carolina, and Bill Owens of New York also voted against the minimum-wage hike, but they will not be seeking another term.

Tags: Barack Obama , Minimum Wage , John Barrow , Colin Peterson , Kurt Schrader

To Summarize, Bunches and Bunches of House Democrat Incumbents Trail.



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The American Action Forum has completed its round of surveys in key West Coast House districts. Their previous rounds in other parts of the country have shown generally good news for Republicans, but I think we can call today’s numbers the nightmare scenario for Democrats.

Among their collective findings:

  • Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction.
  • A plurality of voters prefers a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these ten districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 41 to 34 percent margin.
  • President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are both viewed unfavorably in these districts. Voters in these districts give Barack Obama a 44 to 51 percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating and give Nancy Pelosi a 29 to 58 percent rating.
  • A majority of the likely voters in these districts oppose the health-care reform plan. Voters oppose the new law by a 53 to 39 percent margin, including 45 percent who strongly oppose it.

In the individual districts, they found . . .

AZ-1: “Despite Representative Ann Kirkpatrick having 95 percent name ID (with a 42 to 37 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Paul Gosar’s 46 percent (23 to 6 percent favorable), Gosar leads on the ballot by a 47 to 41 percent margin.”

AZ-5: “Despite Representative Harry Mitchell having 97 percent name ID (with a 42 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Schweikert’s 77 percent (33 to 18 percent favorable), Schweikert leads on the ballot by a 50 to 44 percent margin.”

AZ-8: “Despite Representative Gabrielle Giffords having 99 percent name ID (with a 52 to 41 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jesse Kelly’s 78 percent (33 to 25 percent favorable), Giffords and Kelly are currently tied on the ballot at 46 percent each.”

CA-11: “Despite Representative Jerry McNerney having 93 percent name ID (with a 41 to 34 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Harmer’s 47 percent (19 to 8 percent favorable), Harmer currently leads McNerney on the ballot by a razor-thin 45 to 44 percent margin.”

CA-47: “Despite Representative Loretta Sanchez having 96 percent name ID (with a 46 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Van Tran’s 67 percent (26 to 18 percent favorable), Sanchez leads on the ballot by just a 45 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-3: “Despite Representative John Salazar having 98 percent name ID (with a 45 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Tipton’s 73 percent (28 to 19 percent favorable), Tipton leads on the ballot by a 51 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-4: “Despite Representative Betsey Markey having 98 percent name ID (with a 37 to 50 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Cory Gardner’s 57 percent (23 to 13 percent favorable), Gardner leads on the ballot by a 50 to 39 percent margin.”

NM-1: “Despite Representative Martin Heinrich having 97 percent name ID (with a 46 to 39 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jon Barela’s 48 percent (20 to 11 percent favorable), Heinrich is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Barela by a 49 to 42 percent margin.”

[Note that this is what qualifies as "good news" for Democrats, an incumbent below 50 with a 7 percentage point lead.]

NV-3: “Despite Representative Dina Titus having 99 percent name ID (with a 46 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Joe Heck’s 78 percent (32 to 21 percent favorable), Heck leads Titus on the ballot by a 48 to 45 percent margin.”

OR-5: “Despite Representative Kurt Schrader having 83 percent name ID (with a 34 to 24 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Bruun’s 40 percent (11 to 7 percent favorable), Schrader is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Bruun by a 44 to 36 percent margin.”

Tags: Ann Kirkpatrick , Betsy Markey , Cory Gardner , Dina Titus , Jesse Kelly , Joe Heck , John Barela , John Salazar , Kurt Schrader , Martin Heinrich , Scott Bruun , Scott Tipton

Something Big Might Be Bruu-ing in Oregon



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One more example of an internal poll showing a GOP challenger leading a Democratic incumbent in a House race . . . except this is in a seat where the Democratic incumbent won by 16 percentage points last time.

Republican Scott Bruun has released a new poll taken for his campaign by pollster Bob Moore that claims to show him in a tight race with Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore.

The survey shows Bruun with 41 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Schrader.  That’s well within the poll’s margin of error of six percentage points.

Perhaps more telling, Moore said in a memo that the political climate in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District has changed quite a bit since 2008.  In July of 2008, Moore said, his polling showed that voters preferred a Democrat over a Republican candidate, 44 percent to 33 percent. In the latest poll, conducted Aug. 18-19, voters now say they prefer a Republican, 44 percent to 37 percent.  Alee Lockman, a spokeswoman for Bruun, said these findings were taken at the beginning of the poll, before respondents were asked a series of questions about the candidates.

In 2008, Schrader beat Republican Mike Erickson, 54.3 percent to 38.3 percent.

Tags: Kurt Schrader , Scott Bruun

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