Rep. Martin Heinrich, New Mexico Democrat, announced this weekend he’s running for that state’s open Senate seat.

I checked in with Washington Republicans who follow the House races closely, and they noted that New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District won’t be the easiest open seat race on the map in 2012, but there are some promising signs for the GOP. The party already has two potential candidates who have won races at the local level already: Albuquerque City Councilor Dan Lewis announced he is running Sunday, and former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones formed an exploratory committee. The Albuquerque-based district scores a D+5 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index, under its current district lines.

Republican Heather Wilson represented this district for five terms until 2008, so if she wins the Senate primary, she’s likely to have some coattails in this district.

The story of the last couple of days, during my Presidents Day Weekend travel, has been Democrats choosing not to run for statewide office in 2012. Besides Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel taking a pass on the Indiana gubernatorial race and Rep. Joe Courtney taking a pass on running for Connecticut’s Senate race, the big news is five-term senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico choosing to retire.

He had always won solidly, and in 2006, Bingaman won 71 percent of the vote. Already the race to replace him is being categorized as a “toss-up,” but a great deal depends on the candidates. Democrats had done well here in recent cycles until 2010, when Susana Martinez won the governor’s race and Steve Pearce won one of the state’s three congressional districts.

Bingaman joins Jim Webb, Kent Conrad, and Joe Lieberman among Senate Democrats taking a pass on another term. The chances of Democrats keeping this seat are probably better than in Virginia and North Dakota, but worse than in Connecticut. Still, some mainstream accounts are calling the news a “body blow” to “the odds of Democrats hanging onto the Senate.”

Democrats may not have to look too far for a promising challenger; second-term congressman Martin Heinrich says he’s considering running for the seat. Of course, that would create an open-seat race where Republican Jon Barela took 48 percent last time around, setting up a decent shot for the GOP to pick up that House seat.

State auditor Hector Balderas is apparently in.

On the Republican side, former governor Gary Johnson is a “no.” Former congresswoman Heather Wilson and Pearce are “maybe”s.

There is word of two potential Republican campaigns in today’s Albuquerque Journal (reading the article requires sitting through an ad):

Albuquerque City Councilor Dan Lewis has announced that he is forming an exploratory committee — also known as a pre-campaign fundraising apparatus — that will look at the possibility of running for Congress in the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District.

Lewis, a Republican, said in statements on his exploratory committee website that he is unhappy with Democratic incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich’s record. “The incumbent says he has finally discovered the enormous financial disaster looming over us from the national debt, but that didn’t stop him from voting for Obama’s trillion-dollar health tax and trillions of more dollars in government bailouts and so-called stimulus spending,” Lewis said. “It was incumbent Martin Heinrich who championed the government health care boondoggle, the colossal cost of which we are only now beginning to comprehend.” Lewis was elected to the Albuquerque City Council in 2009 and just finished the first year of his term.

Former Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., who used to hold Heinrich’s seat, says she is considering another run for U.S. Senate, but that it wasn’t a done deal. “I am considering running for Senate, as well as other opportunities,” Wilson said. Incumbent Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., has not yet said whether he will seek another six-year term in 2012. Wilson, a former Air Force captain, ran for New Mexico’s other Senate seat in 2008, losing in the Republican primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M. Pearce lost to Sen. Tom Udall in 2008, but won his old congressional seat back in November.

New Mexico is likely to be a swing state in the 2012 presidential election, and is likely to get a lot of attention, resources, and visits from Obama and his Republican rival. Obama carried it by a surprisingly wide margin (15 percentage points) but George W. Bush narrowly carried it in 2004 and Al Gore won it by the thinnest of margins in 2000. The state has voted for the winning candidate in eight of the past ten presidential elections.

The NRCC offers a memo, one week out.

What jumped out at me:

• “Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real.” Of course, many key states and districts have more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, so the GOP had better turn out better than their registration level.
• The memo specifically mentions, “New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District.” Hard to believe they would mention the districts of John Adler, Martin Heinrich, Mike McIntyre, and John Salazar if they didn’t think they had a real good shot at knocking off those incumbents.
• The memo also refers to “unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi.”
• “The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.”

The full memo:

#MORE#

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS

DATE: OCTOBER 26, 2010

SUBJECT: CLOSING THE DEAL: PUTTING THE PIECES IN PLACE FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY

With only a week to go until Election Day, Democrats have found themselves in a position they hoped to avoid from day one. As Republicans continue to expand the playing field and put races away early, Democrats are constantly plugging holes in the dam while resources grow scarce. After a natural post-Labor Day tightening in races across the country, developments at both the national and district-by-district levels confirm that Republicans are finishing strong. A few weeks ago, we found ourselves on the precipice of victory. Now we are closing the deal, moving toward accomplishing our ultimate goal of retiring Nancy Pelosi and capturing a new Republican majority.

While Democrats are still attempting to claim momentum, reality is far different. The Democrats’ ‘triage’ strategy is cutting off outgoing incumbents at a rapid pace, all but conceding losses in key races. The Rothenberg Political Report already rates 22 Democrat-held seats as either ‘Lean Republican’ or ‘Republican Favored’ with another 14 Democrat-held seats rated as ‘Toss Up/Tilt Republican.’ Public and private polling shows that Republicans are already on their way to winning in nearly 40 races. With a week to go, competitive races are moving quickly away from the Democrats and we have captured critical momentum that will play a large role in breaking the 39-seat barrier.

Early results are promising. Republican turnout in early voting is nearly universally above registration levels, proving that the intensity gap that Democrats fear is in fact real. In toss-up races like New Jersey’s Third District, New Mexico’s First District, North Carolina’s Seventh District, and Colorado’s Third District, early Republican enthusiasm foretells a painful election night for Democrats who thought they were immune to the coming wave.

We need look no farther than the Democrats’ spending strategy to see the extent of their problems. As Republicans continue to push the borders of the playing field, the DCCC and its allies are forced to spend money in races they expected would be locked up weeks ago. Even more troubling for Democrats is the fact that many of these races are even competitive in the first place. With the NRCC on offense against unprepared vulnerable incumbents like Charlie Wilson in eastern Ohio, Tim Walz in southern Minnesota, and Gene Taylor in southern Mississippi, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen has described his party’s challenge as playing a game of ‘Whac-a-Mole.’ The DCCC has scrambled to follow the NRCC into many of these districts to play defense in an unsuccessful effort to stop the bleeding.

The national environment has presented the extraordinary opportunity for Republicans to capture the majority, but the NRCC’s record-setting fundraising has allowed us to capitalize and remain on offense. The NRCC raised $11.2 million in September 2010 alone — its best fundraising month since 2006. We followed that effort by outraising the DCCC once again in the first half of October. While the NRCC is successfully executing a plan to spend $54 million in approximately 90 races, Republican candidates are turning in stellar fundraising performances as well. The Hotline calculates that 34 of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrats were outraised by their Republican challengers last quarter. The financial advantage that Democrats long believed would allow them to retain their majority has disappeared.

Democrats are message-less. There is no longer enough time for them to coalesce behind a message that resonates with middle class voters. Instead, they have desperately turned to attacking outside organizations who dare oppose their anti-business views. Democrats had no complaints when their liberal allies were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on their behalf in the 2006 and 2008 elections. They also conveniently neglect to mention the fact that labor unions continue to outspend conservative groups as well. With their hypocritical attempts to distract voters with scare tactics and side topics, Democrats are only reinforcing voters’ perception that they have absolutely no plan to create jobs. Their message should be taken for what it is: Democrats are laying the groundwork for a massive Election Night loss and they are in need of scapegoat. Unfortunately, reality doesn’t match their rhetoric.

With the playing field much more balanced over the closing weeks of the campaign, Democrats are forced to defend their unpopular agenda in Washington — a fight they know they can’t win. The final unemployment numbers before election day that were announced earlier this month confirmed that Democrats will be held accountable by voters for their reckless job-killing policies. Last week’s state-by-state unemployment numbers reinforced that reality from coast to coast. As Americans are desperately seeking leadership in Washington that is willing to address a struggling economy, Democrats pushed forward with a radical big-government spending agenda that stood in the way of economic recovery and only made matters worse. Though many vulnerable Democrats are running away from this record on the campaign trail, the American people will not soon forget about this binge of unprecedented spending at the expense of a healthy economy.

Make no mistake: Nancy Pelosi’s days as Speaker of the House are numbered. Thanks to nearly two years of hard work on the campaign front and a renewed commitment to listening to the American people, Republicans are poised for a significant victory on November 2. With just days to go until Election Day, we are faced with a historic opportunity to take control of Congress away from Nancy Pelosi and put a stop to the Democrats’ reckless job-killing agenda. Republicans intend to seize this opportunity.

The American Action Forum has completed its round of surveys in key West Coast House districts. Their previous rounds in other parts of the country have shown generally good news for Republicans, but I think we can call today’s numbers the nightmare scenario for Democrats.

Among their collective findings:

• Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction.
• A plurality of voters prefers a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these ten districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 41 to 34 percent margin.
• President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are both viewed unfavorably in these districts. Voters in these districts give Barack Obama a 44 to 51 percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating and give Nancy Pelosi a 29 to 58 percent rating.
• A majority of the likely voters in these districts oppose the health-care reform plan. Voters oppose the new law by a 53 to 39 percent margin, including 45 percent who strongly oppose it.

In the individual districts, they found . . .

AZ-1: “Despite Representative Ann Kirkpatrick having 95 percent name ID (with a 42 to 37 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Paul Gosar’s 46 percent (23 to 6 percent favorable), Gosar leads on the ballot by a 47 to 41 percent margin.”

AZ-5: “Despite Representative Harry Mitchell having 97 percent name ID (with a 42 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Schweikert’s 77 percent (33 to 18 percent favorable), Schweikert leads on the ballot by a 50 to 44 percent margin.”

AZ-8: “Despite Representative Gabrielle Giffords having 99 percent name ID (with a 52 to 41 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jesse Kelly’s 78 percent (33 to 25 percent favorable), Giffords and Kelly are currently tied on the ballot at 46 percent each.”

CA-11: “Despite Representative Jerry McNerney having 93 percent name ID (with a 41 to 34 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Harmer’s 47 percent (19 to 8 percent favorable), Harmer currently leads McNerney on the ballot by a razor-thin 45 to 44 percent margin.”

CA-47: “Despite Representative Loretta Sanchez having 96 percent name ID (with a 46 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Van Tran’s 67 percent (26 to 18 percent favorable), Sanchez leads on the ballot by just a 45 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-3: “Despite Representative John Salazar having 98 percent name ID (with a 45 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Tipton’s 73 percent (28 to 19 percent favorable), Tipton leads on the ballot by a 51 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-4: “Despite Representative Betsey Markey having 98 percent name ID (with a 37 to 50 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Cory Gardner’s 57 percent (23 to 13 percent favorable), Gardner leads on the ballot by a 50 to 39 percent margin.”

NM-1: “Despite Representative Martin Heinrich having 97 percent name ID (with a 46 to 39 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jon Barela’s 48 percent (20 to 11 percent favorable), Heinrich is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Barela by a 49 to 42 percent margin.”

[Note that this is what qualifies as "good news" for Democrats, an incumbent below 50 with a 7 percentage point lead.]

NV-3: “Despite Representative Dina Titus having 99 percent name ID (with a 46 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Joe Heck’s 78 percent (32 to 21 percent favorable), Heck leads Titus on the ballot by a 48 to 45 percent margin.”

OR-5: “Despite Representative Kurt Schrader having 83 percent name ID (with a 34 to 24 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Bruun’s 40 percent (11 to 7 percent favorable), Schrader is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Bruun by a 44 to 36 percent margin.”

Looking at some new polls out of New Mexico… if Republican Suzanna Martinez leads the gubernatorial race over Democrat Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, 45 percent to 39 percent, then neither Rep. Martin Heinrich nor Rep. Harry Teague should feel all that great about narrow leads (6 points and 3 points, respectively) over their GOP challengers.

The poll finds Gov. Bill Richardson’s approval rating at… 33 percent.