One of the key still-unclear factors in& this year’s Virginia governor’s race is just what mood the voters are in as Election Day approaches. Quinnipiac finds only 8 percent describe themselves as “very satisfied” with “the way things are going in Virginia today,” but 54 percent say they’re “somewhat satisfied.” Another 26 percent say they’re “somewhat dissatisifed” and 11 percent say they’re “very dissatisfied.”

Back in 2009, the top issue was clear — the lingering recession and economic fears — and Republican nominee McDonnell’s simple “Bob’s for Jobs” signs were ubiquitous all over the state. This year, two topics dominated coverage of state politics: a transporation deal that hiked taxes in Northern Virginia and troubling revelations of a wealthy Virginia businessman giving expensive gifts to current governor Bob McDonnell and his family.

However, Quinnipiac finds McDonnell’s approval rating . . . still pretty high — 46 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove. That’s down from a May split of 49 percent approval, 28 percent disapproval, but still not quite as bad as one might think after a month of brutal press coverage. (Also note the same survey finds President Obama slightly underwater in Virginia, with 46 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.)

So how do Virginia voters feel about the economy? The state’s unemployment rate is relatively low, 5.3 percent. The state slipped slightly in CNBC’s annual survey of best states for business, but from third out of 50 states to fifth. McAuliffe’s economic message is that Virginia could be at the very top with more focus on spending in transporation and infrastructure and education.

Ken Cuccinelli, meanwhile, says his conversations with voters reveal a lot of not-so-obvious lingering economic anxiety.

“The priority is the same for voters, it’s still jobs and the economy,” Cuccinelli told me in a recent interview. “To the extent that we’re technically in a recovery, it’s a pretty weak recovery and it isn’t reaching everybody. Especially with the implementation of Obamacare, you’ve got small businesses that are frozen in place. Heck, our community colleges are pushing their adjunct professors down below 30 hours, and that’s happening in the private sector as well. That’s causing a lot of dislocation. Add to that furloughs and sequestration in the two most economically stable parts of the state, northern Virginia and southeastern Virginia, and you really get a decent amount of anxiety about the economy and job opportunities. So I still find that’s the first focus of voters.”

UPDATE: By the way, one Quinnipiac survey result may offer a key indicator of public cynicism, and why McDonnell’s numbers haven’t tumbled too far: Asked, “compared to most people in public life, do you think Bob McDonnell has more honesty and integrity, less honesty and integrity, or about the same,” 12 percent said “more,” 17 percent said “less,” and 60 percent said “about the same.”

From the last Morning Jolt until July 1:

Oh, Terry.

McAuliffe is at it again, hoping you don’t pay any attention to anything but what he says.

While McAuliffe is viewed by many as an entrepreneur and businessman, the Republican campaign has been quick to point out two of McAuliffe’s ventures, GreenTech and new energy firm Franklin Pellets, have shown sluggish growth.

McAuliffe conceded the businesses haven’t taken off as rapidly as he’d hoped during a visit to nearby Loudoun County on June 14.

“I’ve been involved in starting two very 21st-century innovative businesses. They’re both start-ups. They’re both successful today at different elements in what they’re doing. They take time, maybe they take longer than we’d hope,” he said.

Define “successful.”

An upstart electric car company made the promise of providing hundreds of new jobs in North Mississippi almost one year ago. Taxpayers helped foot the bill to land Greentech Automotive, and now they want a return on their investment.

When a company commits to creating hundreds of jobs, it gets people’s attention.

Now model cars are gone from outside of the plant. The only evidence Action News 5 investigators found of any electric car production were a couple of cars whizzing around the parking lot after our crew started filming.

Based on last year’s announcement this facility should be booming by now.

For months, the Action News 5 Investigators asked to get back inside Greentech to see the operation and the Mid-Southerners hired to fill those promised positions. Greentech Vice President Marianne McInerney denied our requests each time, but share 78 employees worked inside.

The first Morning Jolt of the week features a look at how the Obama administration is claiming that if you look too closely at the scandals, you’re on a witch hunt; a surprising Washington figure who is already “Going Bulworth”; a new hitch for the immigration bill; and then this development down in Virginia . . . 

No, Virginia, This Isn’t the Best Way to Pick a Party Nominee.

How should state parties select their nominees for high office? Let me offer a simple criterion: get as many members of the party involved as possible – but limit the decision to registered members of that party. Sorry, independents and unaffiliated voters. If you want some say in who the Republicans nominate, then join the party, and the same goes for the Democrats and their nominations.

My home state of Virginia doesn’t meet this criterion; the state doesn’t register voters by party, and this weekend the state GOP selected their lieutenant gubernatorial candidate by convention.

Brian Schoeneman, writing at Bearing Drift, lays out the consequences of this approach:

I cannot, for the life of me, understand why anybody still thinks that nominating by convention is a good idea.

Let’s look at the numbers.

8,094 – The total number of registered delegates who showed up, out of over 12,000 who registered.
255,826 – The number of Republicans casting a ballot in the 2012 U.S. Senate primary.

Just from those numbers you can see that the majority of well-motivated Republicans interested in participating in our nominating processes were disenfranchised by the State Convention.

Here’s another number: $25.  As my colleague Melissa Kenney noted the other day, that’s the cost for children to attend the convention.  For a family as large as hers, or as large as Ken Cuccinelli’s, it would cost almost $200 for them to attend the convention.  That doesn’t include meals, transportation, and hotel costs for those who didn’t come from Richmond or the surrounding suburbs and don’t want to risk a 5+ hour drive home after a grueling hurry-up-and-wait style convention.  Not everybody can afford the poll tax conventions effectively levy.

And despite the miracles of modern communication, cell phones, Bearing Drift and our livestream, John Frederick’s live broadcast, email, Facebook and Twitter, the convention floor was still rife with rumors and nonsense, including the fake/rescinded endorsement controversy between Corey Stewart and Pete Snyder on the final ballot. Conventioneers were treated like fungi – kept in the dark and fed crap – and that inevitably had an impact on the final selection of E. W. Jackson as our Lt. Governor nominee.  Information trickled out of the counting area, and it was left to bloggers and social media to keep convention goers in the know.  And given the length of the convention, cell phones were dying or dead far before the convention was gaveled closed at 10:30 Saturday night.

We’ve all heard the arguments over the years about disenfranchisement of military members, parents with small children who can’t afford the cost of childcare, small business owners who can’t afford to give up a spring Saturday to the convention, the elderly who can’t go for 16 hours at a time, and the rest.  That was clearly in evidence yesterday, given that by the time the fourth ballot rolled around, over a third of the conventioneers who had showed up had left.  The final ballot saw fewer that 5,000 votes cast.

Is that what we really want?

Meet E. W. Jackson, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor:

E. W. Jackson served three years and was honorably discharged from the United States Marine Corps. He then graduated with a Bachelor of Arts Degree (BA), Summa Cum Laude with a Phi Beta Kappa Key from the University of Massachusetts at Boston. Three years later he graduated from Harvard Law School with a Juris Doctor (JD). While in law school, he was accepted into the Baptist ministry and studied theology at Harvard Divinity School.

Jackson practiced small business law for 15 years in Boston, and taught Regulatory Law as an Adjunct Professor at the Graduate level at Northeastern University in Boston. Since returning to his ancestral home of Virginia, he has also taught graduate courses in Business and Commercial Law at Strayer University in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.

In 1997, he retired from his private law practice in order to devote full time to ministry. However, he still taught law and maintained both his avid interest in – and commitment to — civic and political responsibility. His first book, “Ten Commandments to an Extraordinary Life,” was published in 2008. His second book, “America the Beautiful – Reflections of a Patriot Descended from Slaves” is scheduled for release in 2012.

Jackson’s family history in Virginia dates back to the time of the Revolutionary War. According to the 1880 census, his great grandparents (Gabriel and Eliza) were a sharecropper family in Orange County, Virginia. His grandfather, Frank Jackson, moved to Richmond and then to Pennsylvania, where Jackson was born.

Expect every Republican running for office in the next two years to run on the theme that government, particularly the federal government, has abused the trust of the American people:

Vance Wilkins Jr., the first-ever Republican speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates and now active in the tea party movement, was asked to handicap the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe contest.

Wilkins flashed his knowing jack-o’-lantern grin: “That depends on what happens with those congressional hearings” — a reference to House and Senate inquiries of the controversies roiling the Obama administration — “They will flavor it.”

The Republican Party of Virginia is having some fun this afternoon.

Here’s Terry McAuliffe in September 2011, discussing Solyndra on a Virginia-based public television program:

McAuliffe says, “I’m proud to always say of all my businesses and the one I’m doing now with the auto, I do it all with private capital. I use my own money and investor money, I just don’t want the government in my business.”

Strangely enough, that’s the exact month that McAuliffe’s company, GreenTech Automotive, accepted a $3 million loan from the Mississippi Development Authority, acting on behalf of the state of Mississippi. The contract can be found here. Separately, the MDA loaned another $2 million to Tunica County to purchase the site for the factory.

Hmmmm.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are in a 38 – 38 percent dead heat in their race to become Virginia’s next governor. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, running as an independent candidate, leaves the race a statistical tie, with McAuliffe at 34 percent, Cuccinelli at 31 percent and Bolling at 13 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Bolling, elected as a Republican, said he will make a major announcement next month, presumably about the governor’s race.

When talking up the possibility of an independent bid, Bolling said earlier this month, “I think there is a definite opening in this campaign for a credible independent candidate… We will have our decision made and announced by March 14.”

Is 13 percent really the threshold of support to be a credible independent candidate? Of course, candidates tend to assess their own viability and credibility with a distinctly non-objective eye. Bolling has been lieutenant governor of the state for eight years, and found himself unlikely to be able to win the gubernatorial nomination over Cuccinelli at the state convention. Bolling and his crew may be angry that the Virginia GOP decided to select their nominee at a convention instead of a primary, but he shouldn’t have any illusions about the likely outcome in that venue as well; in June of last year, Cuccinelli led Bolling 51 percent to 15 percent.

But this may come down to what Bolling really wants to see: his own victory… or Ken Cuccinelli’s defeat.

In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, Republican Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign is making a big deal about one of Terry McAuliffe’s companies, GreenTech Automotive.

In 2009, electric-car company GreenTech Automotive decided to locate its manufacturing plant in Mississippi instead of Virginia — pledging to bring at least 1,500 jobs to that state.

Asked why McAuliffe’s company picked Mississippi instead of Virginia, the Democratic candidate contended that officials at the Virginia Economic Development Partnership — the state’s business recruitment agency — weren’t interested. “They decided they didn’t want to bid on it.”

PolitiFact Virginia extensively reviewed the state records and came to the opposite conclusion:

Records showed VEDP staff were interested in the project and were in the process of its due diligence when GreenTech moved ahead with a plant in Mississippi.

VEDP had “grave concerns” about GreenTech’s business plan. The agency said GreenTech Agency officials had no “demonstrated experience” in manufacturing cars. It doubted the company’s job estimates. It questioned the ethics of GreenTech’s plan to raise money from foreign investors in exchange for U.S. residency.

The record shows that VEDP asked GreenTech to address its concerns and waited in vain for replies. Without those answers, VEDP would not negotiate monetary support for that, or any, project.Contrary to McAuliffe’s claim, there is no evidence the state agency decided not to bid on the project.

Emails show VEDP took GreenTech officials on a tour of potential sites and contacted the company about coming to Virginia almost two years after GreenTech announced it was building a plant in Mississippi.

We rate McAuliffe’s statement False.

The topic may or may not turn out to be a big deal in the year ahead, but McAuliffe was asked about it and is now offering a new spin — it wasn’t his fault, somebody else made the decision.

“They made the decision, the company made the decision,” McAuliffe told a radio host Friday.

McAuliffe must be the most strangely powerless chairman of a company ever.

The midweek edition of the Morning Jolt offers a look at the ambitions of Stanley McChrystal, the predictable pattern of Obama meetings with foreign leaders like this week’s one with Karzai, a strange entertainment event at the White House, and then this breaking news out of Richmond…

Could Virginia Become the First State to Completely Eliminate Gasoline Taxes?

Would you trade eliminating your state’s gas tax for an increase of eight-tenths of a percentage point in the sales tax?

That’s what Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell is proposing. His spokesman, Tucker Martin, lays it out:

The Governor will eliminate the gas tax and instead tie future transportation funding to Virginia’s sales and use tax, which will move from 5% to 5.8% with the new .8 dedicated completely to transportation.

 This will make Virginia the first state in the nation without a gas tax. Virginia will be a national leader.

 The switch from the gas tax to the sales tax is essentially revenue neutral in its first year.  And Virginia’s sales tax will remain lower than all of our neighbors and the District of Columbia.

 This change simply ensures that transportation receives the new funding it needs in the years ahead by tying it to a mechanism that moves in tandem with economic activity and inflation. That is how every other tax (corporate income/personal income) works. That is what will make transportation funding sustainable again.

 Right now Virginia’s transportation challenge breaks down like this: Virginia is sending $364 million a year from our construction account to our maintenance account. So instead of financing new projects, we’re having to use that money just to repair old roads. That crossover amount is anticipated to grow to $500 million by 2019. Long and short, Virginia needs new transportation funding to the tune of at least $500 million a year by 2019. This plan does that.

 This plan generates $844 million in new, additional annual transportation funding in FY 2019. It eliminates Virginia’s crossover issue. It provides $3.1 billion in new funding for transportation over the next 5 years, including $1.8 billion in new funding for construction projects.

Further, by eliminating the gas tax, Virginians will pay $3.5 billion LESS at the pump over the next 5 years. And there will be no sales tax on gasoline either.

Grover Norquist doesn’t like it. His group, Americans for Tax Reform, offered a counterproposal that, among other things, pulls more money for transportation from the state’s general fund, calling transportation a “core function of government” that must be met before other spending interests of state lawmakers are considered.

The greens are likely to scream bloody murder, as shown on the blog, Bacon’s Rebellion: “The new tax would punish pedestrians, telecommuters, cyclists, carpoolers and mass transit riders, who are doing the virtuous thing of driving less, while subsidizing the voracious appetites of drivers.”

Here’s the thing: all of those virtuous non-drivers still get the benefit of all of those roads and bridges that the state maintains; those groceries don’t just magically appear on the supermarket shelves, nor do the employees of every business they use just teleport into their jobs. So if transportation benefits everyone – I seem to recall Elizabeth Warren emphasizing how universal the benefit of roads and bridges are this summer – why shouldn’t everyone pay for them?

On the other hand, I might prefer paying a tax on something specific rather than a higher sales tax on everything I buy here. Why do I get the feeling swapping one tax for another will amount to a wash?

Pat Mullins, chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, offered this statement:

“Big ideas don’t come along that often in politics. Yet Governor McDonnell’s proposal to end the gas tax and still put more money to transportation is just that – a big idea that addresses one of our Commonwealth’s most serious problems.

 This plan acknowledges the reality that gasoline use has likely peaked, and higher mileage vehicles will only drive those numbers lower and lower. At the same time, it provides a dedicated stream of revenue that will grow as our economy expands.   

 I applaud the Governor for bringing this big idea to the table, I look forward to working with both Governor McDonnell and the General Assembly to both end the gas tax and improve our Commonwealth’s aging roads by seeing this proposal enacted into law.”

After Democrats spent a presidential campaign cycle demonizing Mitt Romney as a ruthless, profit-obsessed capitalist, they must now turn around and argue that Terry McAuliffe’s experience in the private sector demonstrates why he should be Virginia’s next governor.

This report by Ryan Nobles, a reporter in the Richmond, Va., NBC affiliate, is likely to complicate the McAuliffe narrative:

Yesterday we outlined at length Terry McAuliffe’s explanation as to why he chose to open a manufacturing plant for his Green Car company in Mississippi instead of here in Virginia. The plant opened to great fanfare in July and was helping to establish McAuliffe’s credentials as a businessman willing to invest in green technology as a long term economic solution.

But for McAuliffe, who purchased the Chinese company shortly after losing the democratic primary for governor in 2009, the fact that the plant and its potential one thousand jobs ended up in Mississippi was a mystery. Especially because McAuliffe never really stopped running for governor. He touted this week that he has attended some 2,400 political events in Virginia over the past four years.

On Wednesday McAuliffe claimed that the reason he went to the deep south instead of the Commonwealth was because the Virginia Economic Development Partnership (VEDP) passed on his company’s incentive application.

“VEDP decided they didn’t want to bid on it,” he said.

According to a spokeswoman from VEDP, the agency never officially was given the opportunity to bid or not bid on his project.

“We did not receive enough information to respond to GreenTech’s business proposal that was received in 2009,” said Suzane West, the Communications Manager for VEDP.

West said VEDP could not give specifics on what information was not provided, but according to Marianne McInerney, the Executive Vice President of sales at GreenTech, the company decided to forgo the final steps of the application process because it was made clear to them in meetings with VEDP that the proposal would be unsuccessful. This was after a significant amount of time and energy was dedicated to the project.

For what it is worth, few of the Virginia Republicans I have spoken to today think the current lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling, will launch an independent bid for governor next year, as the Washington Post is speculating.

Bolling has been lieutenant governor for seven years and would face a tough primary fight with the state’s attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli. (The current governor, Bob McDonnell, leapfrogged from the AG spot to the governorship in 2009.) Polling for much of the year suggested Cuccinelli had a significant edge, perhaps as much as a 3-to-1 advantage.

Virginia Republicans recently decided to select their gubernatorial nominee at the state convention instead of through a statewide primary — shifting the decision to about 20,000 to 50,000 committed activists, and putting Bolling at an advantage he apparently found insurmountable.

So why not run as an independent? Bolling has been a loyal Republican officeholder since 1991, and still has one year left on his term as lieutenant governor. He’s scheduled to speak to the state party this weekend in Virginia Beach. He’s currently respected and admired among a lot of Republicans who didn’t have him as their first choice in next year’s gubernatorial race, but an independent bid would burn a lot of bridges (and probably be much better news for the Democratic candidate than for Bolling).

Elsewhere, the Republican party of Virginia is already tweaking the opposition about their . . . problematic options in 2013′s gubernatorial race. Their release this afternoon:

And so it begins. With a shallow bench, and no message or plan to speak of, Virginia Democrats pin their hopes for 2013 on a failed, flawed candidate who spent $7 million on a primary and lost . . .  to Creigh Deeds.

The same guy who knew he wanted to run for Governor, but wasn’t sure about what state he would do it from. The same guy who likes to talk up all the manufacturing jobs he’s created . . . in Mississippi, because Virginia wouldn’t give him enough corporate welfare.

But not all Democrats are in love with their candidate. In fact, a number of them, particularly in the netroots community, are hoping and praying another failed candidate to enter the race: one of President Obama’s favorite (ex)- Congressmen, Tom Perriello.

Democrats have two less-than-appealing choices:

The guy who said “If you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing”

or

The guy who had a chance to create hundreds of jobs in Virginia, but chose Mississippi instead? And whose primary occupation is raising money for Democrats (and name dropping Bill Clinton?)

RPV Chairman Pat Mullins gave the following statement:

“Where have I heard this before? A Republican party united around one candidate for Governor headed into the election, while Democrats are less than thrilled with their current crop of failed retreads. 

Meanwhile, faced with unappealing candidates with no plan for the economy other than ‘raise taxes’ in the face of a tough economy, Democrats launch an all out assault attempting to paint the Republican nominee as extreme, while they focus on social issues to the exclusion of all else. 

Sounds quite a bit like 2009. I’m looking forward to next November already.”

The mood from GOP insiders, both inside and outside the Romney campaign, was looking pretty gloomy about 45 minutes ago, with great anxieties about Virginia, Florida, and even North Carolina. As more returns have come in, the mood is brightened considerably — the northern suburbs of Virginia are looking better for Romney, the Florida panhandle continues to give Romney gobs of votes when he desperately needs them, and good numbers in Wake County in North Carolina.

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, subsequent counties could change things, and all proper caveats apply.

Major Garrett, writing in National Journal:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).

UPDATE: The Obama campaign is “absolutely not” giving up on those states, traveling press secretary Jen Psaki said today.

From the final Morning Jolt of the week:

NRA: Now Romney Allies

So, if you’re going to offer an expected endorsement of a presidential candidate in a key state, what better day to do it than the day he and his supporters are elated by a thoroughly dominating debate performance?

It’s your lucky day, NRA. From my friend Cam’s world:

Fairfax, VA. – The National Rifle Association’s Political Victory Fund today announced its endorsement of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan for President and Vice President. NRA’s Executive Vice President, Wayne LaPierre, and NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) Chairman, Chris W. Cox, made the announcement in Fishersville, Virginia, during a rally with both Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Paul Ryan in attendance. Also, attending and performing at the press conference was country music superstar and NRA Life Member Trace Adkins.

“Virginia is ground zero – the front line of this election. This is where the race could be won or lost. This is where the difference can be made. This is where gun owners must make that difference.” said LaPierre.

“Today, we live in an America that is getting harder to recognize every day led by a President who mocks our values, belittles our faith, and is threatened by our freedom.” said Cox. “So on behalf of the four million men and women of the National Rifle Association, representing tens of millions of NRA supporters, it is my honor to announce the NRA’s endorsement of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan for President and Vice President of the United States.”

Beltway Baca offers a photo to show turnout in Fishersville was . . . considerable.

One of my guys plugged into GOP circles in Virginia reaches out to me with the opening declaration, “Short attention spans.”

“That is the reason Team Mitt is holding back right now,” he says. “They know, as they proved in the primary, that elections are won and lost in the last two weeks and on the ground.”

Here the evidence has a few exceptions, as Romney was pretty steady in New Hampshire, but the former Massachusetts Governor did come back strong in the closing weeks and days of primaries in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, and showed a modest closing bump in Iowa,

“With modern information overload, its not inconceivable for any candidate to turn things around in days.  That was never the case prior to 2004 or 2008,” my source says. “If Mitt goes on an offensive over the next two weeks and performs well in the first debate, people will forget why they were down today AND Mitt will drive the comeback kid narrative.”

At first glance, one might worry about holding back for the final two weeks in an era of early voting. As NBC News notes this morning, “voters in 30 states — including the battleground states of Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Virginia — are now casting ballots, either via absentee or early in-person voting, per NBC’s Kyle Inskeep. Today, early in-person voting begins in Iowa and Wyoming, while absentee ballots are now being sent to voters requesting them in Alabama, Wyoming, North Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois. By the end of next week, voters in five more states, including Ohio and Florida, will join this list.”

However, think about who votes early: the diehards, the most enthusiastic, the folks whose party loyalty is so strong that their vote was almost guaranteed before the campaign began. Paul Gronke, the Director of the Early Voting Information Center. told NPR the early voters are “the decided – they’re partisan, they’re ideological, better educated, higher income.”

So the mission for the Romney campaign and the GOP right now is make sure your base is getting their absentee ballots in the mail, showing up for early voting, and so on, while readying the final pitch to those fickle undecided. As mentioned earlier, the remaining undecideds and persuadable voters are generally demographically favorable to Romney – male, white, married, disapproving of Obama and deeply pessimistic about the current direction of the country.

Looking at his home state, this former GOP official declares, “I like what I’m seeing on the ground in Virginia.  We have reversed Democrats advantages’ from four years ago.  We have eight Republican Congressmen.  If they gin up their turnout, we should be fine. And, as you pointed out, much of the time and effort (rightly) is being spent on get-out-the-vote. From all signs, it looks like we are way ahead of where we were in that regard four years ago.”

Obama won Virginia by 232, 317 votes, or 6.3 percentage points, four years ago, so the Republican GOTV effort has to be way ahead of 2008 for Romney to have a chance.

Yesterday I had a chance to speak to Virginia governor Bob McDonnell about the outlook for Mitt Romney in his home state.

NRO: How worried are you about [former Virginia congressman and Constitution Party presidential nominee] Virgil Goode? I’ve heard from a few folks on the ground who are worried about him taking a few percentage points in Virginia. As you guys coordinate the Virginia effort, is he on your radar screen or anything you’re worried about?

McDonnell: First we’ve got to see if he qualifies. He got a lot of signatures, but now the signatures have to be checked. As you know, other presidential candidates got signatures, but they didn’t qualify. We have to take it one step at a time and see whether those signatures are valid and if they get him to qualify. Secondly, people in Virginia understand how important this election is.

Virgil’s a good man. I served with him in the [Virginia State] Senate. He’s got generally good, conservative values. But there’s no way he’s got a chance for him to be competitive or to win. So a vote for Virgil Goode is a vote that goes toward electing Barack Obama. People in Virginia are realistic enough to know that. We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that all conservative, libertarian, independent, and clear-thinking Democrats understand that Mitt Romney is the only guy who has the ability to replace Barack Obama and get our country out of debt and back to work.

NRO: Are you seeing anything in your poll numbers that say “we need to focus on this particular issue” or “we need to focus on this region”?

McDonnell: There are clearly regional issues, but it all starts with the overall message. The message is that 42 months of 8 percent unemployment and $16 trillion in debt and no energy policy, and doubling gas prices, is unacceptable. The president has tried, and the president has failed. There’s no way to sugarcoat that. So we need a change in leadership. Mitt Romney’s vision and record in Massachusetts and in the private sector tells you this is a problem solver who can actually get things done. Doesn’t make excuses, doesn’t blame people. Very much the opposite of how Barack Obama has governed.

There are regional issues. Hampton Roads for instance, support for the veterans, is something we’re going to stress down there. We have 350,000 active-duty military, 850,000 veterans. It’s a very important voting block. I think Romney’s got the best ideas overall to support the men and women in uniform now by reversing sequestration, where Barack Obama has been a bystander, and for taking care of the veterans long-term.

In northern Virginia, they’re very concerned about technology and entrepreneurship and being able to start up small businesses, which has been the lifeblood of the explosion up there. Part of his plan for middle-class growth is to promote small-business development. I expect him to talk about that this week, and I think that’s the message that will win Virginia for Mitt Romney.

NRO: You mentioned high unemployment — the Wall Street Journal suggested today that in some swing states with Republican governors, like yourself in Virginia and John Kasich in Ohio, the unemployment rate is lower, which may be helping keep Obama’s numbers up in those states. The message that “jobs aren’t being created, the country is going in the wrong direction” may not resonate as much in Virginia, where things are going better. That may be good for you, but doesn’t that complicate Romney’s task?

McDonnell: That’s a good question, and it really comes down to what policies and who do the voters think are responsible for those lower unemployment rates. In fact, in Republican-governed states, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point lower than in it is Democratic-governed states. Maryland and Virginia are both states that border D.C., but Maryland’s got a 7 percent unemployment rate with Democratic leadership. We’ve got a 5.9 percent unemployment rate. There’s a lot going on that is different, with pro-growth policies to keep taxes and regulation low, in Republican-governed states that I think are accounting for that difference. Twelve out of the fifteen states that have the best climates for business, and seven out of the ten states with the lowest unemployment rates, have Republican governors.

So I think it’s going to be a real hard sell for Barack Obama to say, “Well, it’s all my policies, my bailouts, my stimulus, that’s what’s creating the difference.” It’s not. Voters are smart.

NRO: Completely coincidental that all of Obama’s national policies are only working in those Republican states, huh?

McDonnell: The evidence is undeniable!

NRO: How does the Virginia Senate race look to you? It always seems to be within two points one way or the other. How likely is it that Republicans win the presidential but lose the Senate race, or vice versa?

McDonnell: I think there’s very little opportunity for a split ticket, because the ideas and policies that Barack Obama and Tim Kaine are running on are pretty much the same: more spending, big government, absolute unwillingness to take on entitlement spending — which everybody in America knows you have to do to get us out of debt and get spending under control. Conversely, you’ve got George Allen and Mitt Romney talking about the opportunity society, promoting small business, using all of our energy resources. They’re so joined together on the issues, I don’t see any ticket-splitting at all.

The only caveat to that is that people in Virginia know Tim Kaine and  George Allen well. They’ve both been governors, they’ve both been around for a long time. They know the president and Mitt Romney primarily from the TV, maybe they’ve shaken one of their hands. To the extent that those longstanding personal relationships, or their recollection of how they served as governors, is important, you can see a little bit of a differential there. But overall, if Mitt Romney wins, George Allen wins.

NRO: Have you seen any impact from the Paul Ryan pick on Romney’s numbers in Virginia? Any noticeable impact on any demographics?

McDonnell: I’ve said for a long time, people don’t elect vice presidents, they elect presidents. The vice president can potentially hurt a ticket, or he can be a good complimentary messenger, but ultimately his role is to help you govern. I don’t think any of us expected a major change from that one.

What Paul Ryan brings to the ticket is a seriousness about the incredible challenges facing America. We’re broke, and 23 million people don’t have jobs. That is a serious situation for the greatest country on earth. Paul Ryan is a serious guy who’s had a plan for balancing the budget, for reforming Medicaid and Medicare and reforming entitlements. Everything that Barack Obama doesn’t have the courage to take on, Paul Ryan’s had a plan. Even though some people haven’t liked all of the details, he’s had a plan to get there! So I think he helps immensely with that.

I think a very good messenger to young voters as well — the people who have done worst in the Obama economy, coming out of college, deep in debt, can’t find a job. I think Paul Ryan relates to them well. So I expect a bit of a messenger advantage with him on the ticket, and I can’t wait for that Biden and Ryan debate.

NRO: I realize the standard answer is always, “I’m focused on the job I have,” but in January 2014, you’ll be joining the ranks of the unemployed, or need something to do. So do you ever think about working in a Romney cabinet or an administration position someday?

McDonnell: Nope.

NRO: Never?

McDonnell: You’ve got to get him elected first! And as I’ve said a zillion times, I love being governor of Virginia. It’s the great honor of my life, to have the same job as [Thomas] Jefferson and [Patrick] Henry. I’ve got a big agenda next year on education and transportation and government reform and other things I want to get done. And as I learned as a young lieutenant in the Army, “Take the hill in front of you first, before you try to take the hill behind it, or you end up not doing a good job.”

NRO: I notice there’s a Senate race in Virginia in 2014. Your schedule is free then.

McDonnell: I don’t know if I would want to join a club that has a 14 percent approval rating. We have to turn the country around first.

The Virginia Virtucon finds the Obama campaign advertising on the issue of abortion in Prince William County.

In 2009, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds hammered his Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell, over an allegedly extreme thesis and allegedly extreme socially conservative views. The abortion issue was a centerpiece of that attack:

In the Washington suburbs, he is motivating the Democratic masses by attacking McDonnell’s antiabortion record and highlighting the Republican’s past writings that were critical of working mothers, gays and “fornicators,” an approach that could backfire at home, said David Reynolds, a newspaper columnist from Lexington, Va., about 42 miles east of Covington.

And McDonnell won, 59 percent to 41 percent — both in Prince William County and statewide.

I live in a neighborhood I nicknamed Yuppie Acres in Alexandria, Virginia, a deep-blue spot in a deep-blue district of Virginia, represented in Congress for a long time by the infamous Jim Moran. My neighbors are wonderful people, but in 2008 the houses came with Obama yard signs conveniently pre-installed. In 2009, when Bob McDonnell was winning Virginia by the largest margin of any Republican gubernatorial candidate ever, he won only 38 percent in this district and barely 37 percent in Alexandria City, although he did win 45 percent in my polling place.

Today is Super Tuesday, presidential primary day in Virginia, and there is no Democratic contest. As discussed earlier, the only names listed on the ballot are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. There are no write-in options.

I was told I was the 60th voter at about 8:25 a.m. this morning, which seems a little high for the neighborhood. Way less than a “normal” primary day (with a competitive Democratic primary) or a general election, but significantly more than most other Republicans around the state have reported this morning.

That number could reflect Democrats crossing over. I recently asked McDonnell if Virginia would ever switch to voter registration by party, instead of the current nonpartisan system of voter registration.

“There was some legislation this session to have party registration. I believe it’s been killed,” McDonnell said. “I would support that, because I do think we’re at the point now where, while I want a big tent — and I want people of all conservative stripes to come in and be a part of our party — if a party doesn’t have the ability to control its nomination process for its candidates, it loses its ability to maintain itself as a party. You have seen efforts such as this in other states, and even by the Obama administration this time, knowing that Romney would be its strongest opponent, to try to have Democrats come in and vote for other candidates. That’s what happens. Now I have to say, those efforts are rarely successful. It’s hard to do, and it’s embarrassing when you get caught. But I do think the cleanest way to do that is to have party registration.”

“That’s what you do when you have a [state nominating] convention: You clearly are only going to have Republicans showing up at that,” he continued. “When you have people coming in who might actually be interested in undermining the process, that’s probably not good for the political parties on either side.”

Over on the homepage, I have a long transcript of my Friday interview with Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia, discussing the ultrasound bill that recently passed the Virginia state legislature, what his days are like now that he’s a surrogate for Mitt Romney, and his view on Virginia’s primary, its ballot-access laws, and whether the state could someday become a closed-primary state.

There was one other note I didn’t include in the transcript; McDonnell began by sharing his sadness at the passing of Andrew Breitbart (we chatted Friday morning).

“I’m just so sorry about Andrew,” McDonnell said. “I know you had a chance to get to know him some, I had got to know him a little bit over the past couple of years. It was really a shock.”

Today is the day Virginia is supposed to begin printing its absentee ballots for the Republican presidential primary, to be held March 6. The printing must be completed so that they can be mailed by January 21; that deadline is a result of federal law that requires ballots to be sent to members of the military (Virginia residents serving overseas) at least 45 days before the primary.

But . . . the printing of the ballots has been held up by the court fight over whether the ballot should include candidates besides Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

According to Virginia state law, candidates seeking to be included on the primary ballot are required to obtain the signatures of at least 10,000 registered voters, with 400 from each of the state’s congressional districts. The problem the candidates face is the provision that only Virginia residents can collect the required signatures. The plaintiffs claim that it violates their right to freedom of speech and their right to freedom of association.

U.S. District Judge John A. Gibney will be holding a hearing on Friday to decide whether or not to include the four presidential candidates on the ballot. The judge has barred the distribution of absentee ballots until after Friday’s hearing and gave a five-page supplemental remark along with the order.

Gibney has indicated there’s a good chance he will have candidates added to the ballot, writing earlier, “The Court finds that there is a strong likelihood that the Court will find the residency requirement for petition circulators to be unconstitutional.”

Virginia Republicans expect that after Friday’s hearing, Gibney will probably rule quickly (probably that day) and the printing of the ballots can begin 24 hours. Ballots should get to the troops in time . . .

In the final Jolt until December 29 . . .

Don’t Forget the Details Like Collecting Signatures, Fellas!

Who will I be voting for in the Virginia Republican primary? Unless I want to write someone in, my menu of options just shrank considerably: “Four Republican presidential candidates – Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Ron Paul — submitted paper work in time to qualify for Virginia’s March 6 primary ballot. No other GOP contender will be on the Virginia ballot. Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman did not submit signatures with Virginia’s State Board of Elections by today’s 5 p.m. deadline.”

After envisioning me being eviscerated by angry Iowans wielding hog-slaughtering knives, Robert Stacy McCain offers some reporting: “On a conference call with grassroots supporters last week, a top Santorum staffer had discussed ballot-access issues in several states. Virginia was singled out as a tough one, because of the ‘stringent’ factor described in the Politico article: Not just the 10,000-signature minimum, but you have to get 400 signatures in each of 11 congressional districts, and the deadline hit in the middle of the holiday season, at the same time that the campaigns were going all-out in Iowa. The Santorum people on the conference call were asking for Virginia volunteers to help with their ballot-access drive, saying they were hoping for a ‘Christmas miracle.’ Given the low-budget situation with the Santorum campaign, they had no other choice but rely on volunteers. (Romney, of course, could afford to hire professional ballot-access people.)”

Plus, the iconic presidential declaration of, “Let’s see if my credit card still works! . . . It will be really embarrassing if it doesn’t go through.”

Indeed, Mr. President, those credit downgrades are a pain.

Tomorrow Virginia votes in its state legislative elections. Our friends at Bearing Drift notice the editors of the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star characterizing those who oppose abortion as “government-hating nutzies”:

social conservatives have good reason to want [state Sen. Edd Houck] gone. As chairman of the Senate Education and Health Committee he has buried anti-abortion legislation, earning 100 percent ratings from NARAL and Planned Parenthood. But it is hard to see how many others share that sentiment, apart from government-hating nutzies.

Ah. They’re nuts and like Nazis! Glad to see they got the memo about the new tone.

Of course, the “Nutzy” population may be a bit larger than the editors think:

By an overwhelming 55 – 22 percent, Virginians support a new law requiring abortion clinics to be regulated like hospitals, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  State health regulators are to vote Thursday on regulations implementing tougher abortion clinic standards that are popular even though by 50 – 41 percent Virginians say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. The Virginia Legislature, which gets a 48 – 34 percent approval rating, passed the law that abortion rights groups say is a back-door attempt to stop abortions in the state because most of the existing clinics cannot meet the structural requirements of the new law. But 50 percent of registered voters see the new law as a way to safeguard women’s health, while 33 percent see the law as unnecessary and an effort to put abortion clinics out of business. There is only a small gender gap on this question. 

“There is strong support for the new abortion law among men and women. Opponents apparently have been unable to convince the electorate that this is an unwarranted back-door way to stop abortions,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Even Democrats, by a plurality, support the measure.”

Houck opposed that measure.