After Middle Cheese’s last update of the outlook in key swing states, a lot of readers noticed Wisconsin wasn’t mentioned. My source, formerly of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign and now talking regularly to the Romney big cheeses, wanted to check in with someone:

I left Wisconsin off my last report because I wanted to check in with a “Middle Cheesehead” source in the Badger State.

He says the trend in Wisconsin is moving in the right direction, although Romney is about 2 points behind Obama right now. Enthusiasm among GOP voters is very high. The Milwaukee collar counties (Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee) are mostly Republican and will turn out strongly for the Romney/Ryan ticket. The Fox River cities up through Green Bay are not as well organized and the GOP needs to put more ground game effort there first, and then second work west of Madison to LaCrosse and south along the river. Some of those voters are potential Baldwin/Romney ticket splitters. Let’s remember that the ground game infrastructure from the Walker recalls and related elections remains intact. According to Middle-Cheesehead, all Team Romney needs to do is crank up the ground game a bit in the above-mentioned areas, and they could win Wisconsin by 2 points.

As you undoubtedly hear a lot these days, a Wisconsin win would make Ohio moot, as long as Romney takes the Southern states that currently look good (North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia) and keeps his lead in New Hampshire and Colorado.

A reader points out that several of Minnesota’s radio and television markets extend into the western edge of Wisconsin — so Jill Biden’s campaign stops in Minnesota this weekend may be part of an Obama campaign effort to shore up Wisconsin, rather than reflecting any internal concern about Minnesota.

This map of radio markets from Arbitron indicates that Duluth’s radio market extends into Douglas County, and Minneapolis–St. Paul’s radio market extends into St. Croix and Pierce Counties.

Jill Biden’s tentative schedule:

Minnesota may not be considered a swing state when it comes to the presidential race, but Duluth and Minneapolis will get a touch of national politics this weekend.

Jill Biden, wife of Vice President Joe Biden, will make a campaign swing through Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with a stop in Duluth on Saturday afternoon.

She will thank Obama campaign volunteers, said Kristin Sosanie, the state communications director for the Obama campaign.

“There a good organization up there,” Sosanie said.

The second lady is expected to arrive at the Duluth Labor Temple, 2002 London Road, at 2 p.m. Saturday to also encourage people to keep canvassing voters for the Nov. 6 election. She has a similar morning event in Minneapolis.

“We’re trying to make sure turnout is high,” Sosanie said.

Biden will begin her trip Friday in northern Iowa. She will go to a fundraiser in Minneapolis on Friday night and then a campaign office Saturday morning. Plans for Wisconsin stops Sunday and Monday are pending.

Many, many readers have asked for updates from my nicknamed sources from previous election cycles. Circumstances prevent communications with one of my regulars, but “Middle Cheese” — nicknamed such because he was ranked in between the “big cheeses” and the “little cheeses” of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign – is able to reappear. Since that cycle, Middle Cheese has moved around to various positions in high-level GOP politics, and still talks to the “Big Cheeses” of the Romney campaign.

His latest thoughts:

Glad to be back at “The Kerry Spot,” as it was called in back in 2004 when I first started giving my “Middle Cheese” reports.  Time flies!

You asked about the Romney and RNC ground game– is it real?  Yes, it is and it’s a record-breaking one.  Just look at the numbers:  73,000 volunteers have made more than 26 million voter contacts.  2 million more door-knocks and six times more phone calls at this point four years ago. The Victory program has identified more than 2.2 million swing voters.

You ask:  Are any swing states looking particularly good or bad?  My sources in the Romney campaign say that they have expanded the battlefield into Obama 2008 states like Wisconsin, Colorado, and North Carolina.  The latter is clearly moving out of the Obama column, while the first two remain highly competitive (I think Paul Ryan will have significant coattails in Cheesehead land).

The hand-wringers in the GOP Beltway Establishment are fixated on the recent polling data coming out of Ohio and Florida.  To be sure, Obama is ahead in both states, but the fact the race remains close in most national polls makes it impossible for polls showing wide margins in Ohio and Florida to be accurate. 

I don’t want to be accused of sugarcoating the state of the race.  It’s very close, and Mitt is trailing slightly in a few swing states.  But it is a lifetime until Election Day, with three Presidential and one Veep debate to go.  Our ground game is strong. Overall, Romney-Ryan and the GOP has a $40 million cash on hand advantage over the Obama-Biden campaign.  More importantly, I expect to see Romney to make a larger case for how he would take our country in a fundamentally different direction than President Obama, not on on the economy, but on foreign policy as well. 

Yesterday:

From the Tuesday edition of the Jolt:

Obama Finally Gives Wisconsin Democrats His Excuse: I Was Busy, Okay?

Reporter from local television affiliate Green Bay (WBAY): “There are a lot of Democrats in the state that have told me they’re upset that you did not come to the state and campaign for Tom Barrett.”

“The truth of the matter is, as President of the United States, I’ve got a lot of responsibilities. I was supportive of Tom and have been supportive of Tom. Obviously I would have loved to have seen a different result.”

Zip at Weasel Zippers can’t believe the audacity of the excuse: “Too busy? He did nine fundraisers in the four days prior to the election. In total Obama hit 13 fundraisers in the 14 days leading up to Barrett’s drubbing by Scott Walker.”

Ace of Spades adds:

I think it’s a little worse than that. Obama actually flew over Wisconsin to go from a Minnesota fundraiser to attend a Chicago fundraiser.

He actually flew over Wisconsin twice, avoiding it both times, in the crucial last days of the recall. At one point, when on the ground, he was 15 miles away from the border of Wisconsin — no quickie rally?

I guess Wisconsin’s airports and helipads and highways were also too busy.

I never know how much to make of a lie like this, because it’s an obligatory lie. Most people would mumble something like this rather than tell the strict truth.

What’s kind of amazing is that the White House books an interview with a television reporter from Green Bay and the president doesn’t have a better answer to this question.

How would you like to be the Obama for America grassroots coordinator in Wisconsin this morning?

UPDATE: Jeryl Bier looks at the president’s remarks from the five days preceding the recall:

June 05, 2012 Remarks by President Obama and President Clinton at a Campaign Event

June 04, 2012 Remarks by President Obama and President Clinton at a Campaign Event 

June 04, 2012 Remarks by President Obama and President Clinton at a Campaign Event

June 04, 2012 Remarks by Vice President Joe Biden at the Cypress Bay High School Graduation Ceremony

June 04, 2012 Remarks by the President on Equal Pay for Equal Work via Conference Call

June 01, 2012 Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event — Private Residence, Chicago, IL

June 01, 2012 Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event — Private Residence, Chicago, IL

June 01, 2012 Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event

June 01, 2012 Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event — Bachelor Farmer Restaurant, Minneapolis, MN

In retrospect, it’s rather amazing that they didn’t even send Vice President Biden.

From the Thursday edition of the Morning Jolt:

Welcome to the Post-Wisconsin World

Reuters doesn’t spare Obama in their assessment of Wisconsin after the recall:

Republican Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s recall victory raised numerous warning flags for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats, who badly flunked the first big political test of the 2012 campaign

Walker’s surprisingly easy win over Democrat Tom Barrett on Tuesday was fueled by a big turnout from a motivated Republican base of voters, and by heavy spending by out-of-state conservatives who flooded Wisconsin with campaign cash.

Both trends raised difficult questions for Obama’s re-election campaign, which has struggled to match the enthusiasm of his 2008 White House run and compete financially with the huge sums of money being raised by conservative outside groups ahead of the November 6 election.

The important thing is that Walker’s foes have learned pretty much nothing from all this:

The state’s largest public teachers union spent around $4 million on Gov. Scott Walker’s recall election, much of that on Kathleen Falk’s failed bid for the Democratic nomination, something union leaders say they don’t regret.

“We were all chips in because we had nothing to lose,” said Dan Burkhalter, executive director of the Wisconsin Education Association Council, referring to efforts by the governor and Republican legislators to cut public school funding and all but end collective bargaining for most public employees.

WEAC President Mary Bell said the union supported Falk because she got into the recall race much earlier than Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and for many weeks Walker “had the field to himself” and was able to run many ads touting his accomplishments.

The governor “had the bigger megaphone,” Bell said in a meeting Wednesday afternoon with the Journal Sentinel’s editors and reporters.

Oh, hogwash. It’s not like voters didn’t know who Tom Barrett was and what he stood for, and it’s not like they didn’t know who Scott Walker was and what he stood for. In post-election analyses like these, sore losers behave as if the other guy’s ads have this magic, hypnotic ability to get people to vote against their own interests, while their own ads have no ability to persuade. I mean, it’s entirely possible that the Wisconsin teachers’ unions ran lousy ads, but that’s their own fault, not a ‘size of megaphone’ issue.

One day after Walker withstood the recall attempt, Bell and Burkhalter said they were unsure whether the governor will be open to discussing public education in the state.

“We have to find a better way to have a civil dialogue,” said Bell.

Helpful hint: Stop calling the governor Hitler. Oh, and remember how the AFSCME had their membership drop by 55 percent within one year? The teachers unions are seeing a milder version of the same dropoff:

Since the collective bargaining measure was enacted last year, WEAC’s membership has dropped from around 90,000 to 70,000 but the remaining membership became energized by the recall and union leaders are hopeful that passion will continue as the union rallies around issues such as public school funding. The union is working on membership drives this summer.

“I think we will be smaller but stronger,” Bell said.

Like the new Newsweek, Wisconsin teachers’ unions aren’t getting less popular, they’re just choosing to appeal to a more exclusive audience!

At Forbes.com, Bill Frezza argues that in the long run, all public sector unions appear doomed:

The power of private sector unions was long ago broken by many heavily unionized companies going bankrupt. While this was painful for both workers and shareholders, the economy motored on as nimbler non-union competitors picked up the slack. This approach is problematic for the public sector because bankrupt state and local governments cannot be replaced by competitors waiting in the wings. Yes, citizens can always vote with their feet, emptying out cities like Detroit, leaving the blighted wreckage behind. But isn’t Walker’s targeted fiscal retrenchment less painful than scorched-earth abandonment?

Today through Sunday I’ll be journeying to Providence, Rhode Island, for the Heritage Foundation and Franklin Center for Government & Public Integrity’s Future of Journalism Summit. Campaign Spot blogging may be light in the coming days . . . 

At 1 p.m., I’ll be discussing Scott Walker’s victory in Wisconsin recall election over at the Guardian with Ana Marie Cox.

The optics of the day:

David Axelrod is insisting that results showing a 7-point Scott Walker win last night is bad news for Mitt Romney.

Bill Clinton said in a CNBC interview, “there’s a recession,” and his spokesman had to issue a statement explaining he didn’t really mean it.

The Greek government is declaring “government coffers could be empty as soon as July, shortly after this month’s pivotal elections. In the worst case, Athens might have to temporarily stop paying for salaries and pensions, along with imports of fuel, food and pharmaceuticals.”

Obama will spend today and tomorrow doing fundraisers in California.

And the RNC is showcasing Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s declaration that the Wisconsin recall would be a “dry run” of the Democrats get-out-the-vote operations.

It’s not that surprising that Obama and the Democrats are in trouble. What is surprising is that he and his fellow party leaders are absolutely convinced that they’re not in trouble.

Those warm, loving, kind-hearted leftists will turn on you so fast: last night an enraged supporter of Tom Barrett slapped him for conceding the race.

(HT: The Hope for America.)

I don’t recall – no pun intended – this sort of thing ever happening on an Election Night before.

I wonder how Democratic officeholders and their professional class feel about having a grassroots base that is, at least in some parts, psychotic enough to resort to physical violence upon their own candidates for acknowledging reality. At the time, Barrett trailed by about 10 percentage points or 200,000 votes; as of this morning, Walker won by 7 percentage points, or roughly 173,000 votes.

Believe it or not, by winning his recall election -  by a 57 percent to 42 percent margin at this hour – Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has done his foes – the Wisconsin Democratic Party, the public sector unions, the progressives and angry leftists – a favor.

He has liberated them from the soothing illusion that they are popular, and that the public agrees with them.

How do you think the leadership of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees felt when their membership fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011? How do you think they greeted the sudden realization that more than half of the members, given the option of leaving and cease paying union dues, headed for the exits?

The leadership of the unions have done a terrible job – and have spent years convinced that the membership loved them, and that the public thought well of them as well. That may have been true at some point, but it is no longer the case, and no amount of spin can change that. Better for these organizations to confront the hard truth, and work to earn back that trust of members and the public at large, than to insist that all is well and ignore the problems.

Tonight Scott Walker and his GOP allies did a favor the Obama campaign, too. They assured them that their classification of Wisconsin as a swing state was accurate, and that in the “dry run that we need of our massive, significant, dynamic grassroots presidential campaign” that DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz promised, the Wisconsin Democrats failed miserably. At this hour, Walker is winning by roughly a 200,000 vote margin.

It’s Tuesday, Recall Election Day in Wisconsin. I wonder if MSNBC will see a surge in viewers tonight, as optimistic (but hopefully not overconfident) righties tune in to watch the hosts’ collective meltdown?

From the Morning Jolt today:

It’s Decision Day in America’s Dairyland!

If you live in Wisconsin, go vote. But you probably know that already. If you know someone in Wisconsin,you may want to encourage tehm to vote, but… consdierhin how thye’ve been at the epicenter of a political earthquake and about two years’ worth of aftershocks, they probably know it’s recall election day already. They may just scream in response, “LEAVE ME ALONE!”

And you really can’t blame them:

A bitterly contested state Supreme Court race in April 2011 — when incumbent Justice David Prosser narrowly survived a recount — was followed by a state Senate recall primary and general elections through the summer, municipal voting in February, the presidential primary in April and more recall primaries on May 8, including one for governor.

If there’s any state that epitomizes what the permanent campaign feels like, it’s this one. Wisconsin voters essentially have been asked to cast ballots every 60 days for more than a year, and they’ve been exposed to a relentless barrage of television and radio advertisements, mailers, phone calls, yard signs, stump speeches and debates.

All told, close to $110 million in political advertising has been spent through May 21, according to Mike McCabe of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks such spending, and it’s left residents with a bad case of election fatigue.

I’ve been checking in at the liberal blog FireDogLake to see how the lefty grassroots are taking the Wisconsin developments. David Dayen writes:

Labor keeps insisting that they have a superior ground game, and even the DNC has said this is a “dry run” for November (I would argue that it’s not all that dry, giving the implications of a union-busting Governor beating back a labor-led surge). This is an opportunity to test the voter turnout systems for the fall.

Ultimately, however, one must acknowledge that no public poll has shown Barrett in front. That argues strongly that Walker will be able to hold on. He goes into Election Day a small favorite. Moreover, with public employee union membership in the state declining as the anti-collective bargaining law gets implemented, as was the point, this could represent a high-water mark from an electoral standpoint for labor in the state. They will not have the funds anymore as their membership gets decimated. The larger war, to drain funds from a Democratic-friendly source, has been fought and concluded, in many respects. Building worker power becomes that much harder when the right to organize is restricted. I don’t know what the answer is post-recall, but it probably doesn’t lie with elections.

Walker has won the campaign spending and advertising war, for whatever that’s worth:

Walker, the Republican Governors Association, and independent tea party groups and other grassroots fiscal conservative organizations have spent around $2.484 million to run ads in the recall campaign over the past week, according to data provided to its clients by Kantar Media/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a company that tracks and estimates the costs of campaign television ads. That’s more than double the $1.125 million Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Walker’s Democratic challenger, Democratic Party committees and independent progressive groups have spent to run commercials from last Monday through Sunday. Overall nearly $3.6 million has been spent to flood Wisconsin airwaves with recall spots the past week.

If Barrett loses, expect to hear a lot of Democrats insisting, without much compelling evidence, that they would have won handily if their side had just spent more money. Of course, if a Democratic takeover of the governorship of a swing state – and a warning to every other GOP governor who dares cross public sector unions – was just a matter of spending more money… why wouldn’t the DNC or its allied groups spend the bucks necessary?

For what it’s worth, Conservative Art Critic over at Ace of Spades, who has been following this recall obsessively – but in the good way – makes his final projection of 52 percent to 48 percent.  Nate Silver concludes, “If we put Walker’s lead in WI polls into our forecasting model, it would give him about a 95% chance of beating Barrett.”

The Obama campaign releases a video with campaign manager Jim Messina, discussing the state of the race.

“We’re actually ahead of where we were at this point last time around. Remember summer of 2008? Folks don’t remember it this way, but in May and June 2008, a lot of polls were saying we would never pull it off. In fact, eight different national polls had us anywhere from neck-and-neck to down a few points.”

Perhaps people don’t remember it that way because that’s not what happened.

If you look at the RealClearPolitics archives, the 15 polls released in May 2008 showed McCain ahead twice, and one tie; the other 12 had Obama ahead by 2 to 11 percentage points.  Every poll released in the month of June 2008 had Obama ahead, from anywhere from 3 to 14 percentage points.

Also unmentioned, but noticeable on the map displayed by Messina, the Obama campaign considers Wisconsin to be a “toss-up” or “undecided.”

Campaign Spot reader Steve gives us a Wisconsin recall report from the Pirates-Brewers game:

I drove from Chicago to Milwaukee on Sunday to watch my beloved Pittsburgh Pirates defeat the Milwaukee Brewers. During the third inning, the jumbotron began showing random crowd shots (which had the attention of the crowd and generated friendly cheers) – the cute baby in the Brewers jumper, the shirtless guys with beers, the pretty girls dancing to the music. Then, the camera panned to a guy holding up a “Vote Barrett” sign. The crowd erupted…in boos! These were significant, sustained boos. I asked the couple seated next to me – a young couple that didn’t appear to be regular CPAC attendees or anything -  about the situation and they said, “Barrett’s got no chance. People are sick of this thing.”

Jim, I read the data and insights ably provided by National Review and realize that things are going well for Walker and I’m not reporting any new news. But it’s always nice to confirm the numbers you are seeing with strong anecdotal/local evidence. This was it for me. Walker in a landslide.

From the last Morning Jolt of the week:

Here’s What Happens When Government Stops Collecting Dues for Unions

Wow. Just . . . wow.

Wisconsin membership in the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees — the state’s second-largest public-sector union after the National Education Association, which represents teachers — fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011, according to a person who has viewed Afscme’s figures. A spokesman for Afscme declined to comment.

Much of that decline came from Afscme Council 24, which represents Wisconsin state workers, whose membership plunged by two-thirds to 7,100 from 22,300 last year.

A provision of the Walker law that eliminated automatic dues collection hurt union membership. When a public-sector contract expires the state now stops collecting dues from the affected workers’ paychecks unless they say they want the dues taken out, said Peter Davis, general counsel of the Wisconsin Employment Relations Commission.

In many cases, Afscme dropped members from its rolls after it failed to get them to affirm they want dues collected, said a labor official familiar with Afscme’s figures. In a smaller number of cases, membership losses were due to worker layoffs.

Looks like a lot of public sector workers may like their unions . . . but not enough to keep paying the dues if they have the option. Like, two-thirds of them.

Apply this across the country . . . and you’re talking about the evisceration of one of the Democratic Party’s most important political allies — a game-changer in politics in so many states. Compulsory union-dues collection was the glue that kept the whole operation together. Ed Schultz may be exaggerating when he says a Republican win means America will never elect a Democratic president again . . . but his vision might not be that wildly exaggerated.

Over at the lefty blog FireDogLake, David Dayen notes, “The state president of the American Federation of Teachers is quoted in the article saying that a failure in the recall spells doom for unions nationwide. There’s a lot of truth to that. And that’s why it was so important for the national funding to flow into Wisconsin to take a stand here . . .”

Rick Moran writes:

There is a lot at stake for organized labor in this recall vote. But perhaps not unexpectedly, the voting public has largely moved on from the collective bargaining controversy and now see jobs and jobs creation as the primary issue for the recall vote. A win will be interpreted by labor bosses as vindication rather than a general unhappiness with the Wisconsin economy. That only proves how truly out of touch they are with ordinary people who don’t see the unions representing their interests anymore.

Our Bob Costa takes a closer look at the phenomenon of shrinking unions in Wisconsin on NRO today.

RNC chairman Reince Priebus on a conference call discussing the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election:

“The RNC is all in in Wisconsin . . . Judging from Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s token appearance in the state today, and Stephanie Cutter’s comments on MSNBC today, apparently [Obama for America] and the DNC are all in . . . We’re looking forward to seeing what their top-notch ground game will accomplish in November. Democrats have been all over the map on Tom Barrett and this Wisconsin recall.”

“To highlight the GOP unity for Scott Walker, we’ve announced a partnership with multiple state parties throughout the Midwest. Not only is the RNC full-bore on money and ground effort with Wisconsin, but also Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota state GOPs are assisting with volunteers as well. We’re announcing competitions for both state party and individual competition. We’ve made two million volunteer voter contacts in the state already, and we’re identifying nearly every Wisconsin voter. For perspective, it took the Obama campaign a year to make a million contacts nationwide.”

“We’re feeling very good about how we’re doing on absentee ballots right now.”

“If Wisconsin goes red, it’s lights out for Barack Obama. Putting it in the red column for the first time since 1984 would be a really big deal . . .  I don’t think there’s a state in the country where the GOP knows the voters better than Wisconsin . . . We’ve been analyzing this state for two and a half years. Contacting two and a half million voters, having all of that consumer data, the Prosser election, the state legislative recall challenges . . . You have a pattern here of success that is going to make it easier to win here in November.”

“We’re not seeing any fatigue on our side at all. One of the biggest problems that the Democrats have is that a decent number of Democrats tell pollsters and in focus groups, ‘we may not be Republicans, but we think this recall stuff is out of control. A legislative disagreement with Walker is not enough to have a recall and spend millions of dollars on that.’ To many Democrats, this is absurd. That’s a problem in their turnout model that they don’t know what to do with.”

“The idea of tracking early votes is not a process that is unknown or a vague reality to the state and national parties. We track early votes every day. We know what’s turned in. We know, to a reasonable degree of certainty, how those ballots look in comparison to the voting propensity of those voters, people who we believe to be GOP voters. We know if there are any major problems in early and absentee ballots. We feel very good right now about where we’re sitting regarding absentee ballots.”

“I’m always concerned about voter fraud. Being from Kenosha, I’ve seen it happen. We’ve seen it in Milwaukee. I think we need to be a point or two better than we think we are. Voter ID is constitutional and it has been upheld by the Supreme Court.” (Voter ID laws will not be in effect for the recall elections.)

Wednesday’s Morning Jolt features lot of discussion on Greece, a look at the Obama campaign’s continuing emphasis on the candidate’s personal narrative, and then this development in America’s Dairyland:

End the Division in Wisconsin! Obey the Will of Public-Sector Unions!

We’re one week away from the Wisconsin recall election.

The Walker campaign sent along word:

Governor Scott Walker’s campaign announced today that it has raised more than $5 million between April 24, 2012 and May 21, 2012 from a total of 54,112 contributions. 39,813 of those contributions were $50 or less, representing 73.5% of the overall number of contributions.

“More than 73 percent of our contributions were for $50 or less, showing that as the election draws closer, Governor Walker’s grassroots support is as strong as ever,” said Ciara Matthews, communications director for Friends of Scott Walker. “Governor Walker’s reforms have proven successful for the state by saving taxpayers more than $1 billion and helping to create more than 35,000 jobs since January 2011. It is because of this tremendous success that voters continue to stand with Governor Walker.”

The Walker campaign finished the quarter with a combined total of more than $1.6 million cash on hand in the recall and general campaign funds. The campaign has raised more than $20 million since January 1, 2012.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democrats, who fled the state to avoid voting on Walker’s reforms, who let protesters take over the state capitol for several days, who compared the governor to Hitler, and who forced a referendum for recalls of state legislators and the governor’s recall (putting state voters through seven elections in one year), have coalesced behind one final closing argument: Scott Walker has divided the state.

Really.

So the only way to unite the state is to give Wisconsin Democrats what they want!

In related news, the head of a public-sector union in Wisconsin was seen in public with a staff and helmet with giant horns, declaring that the era of pluralism and public disagreement must end, and adding, “Is not this simpler? Is this not your natural state? It’s the unspoken truth of humanity that you crave subjugation. The bright lure of freedom diminishes your life’s joy in a mad scramble for power. For identity. You were made to be ruled. In the end, you will always kneel.”

It’s amazing how fast the conventional wisdom shifts. I have been cautiously optimistic about Governor Scott Walker’s odds in the Wisconsin recall; polls have pretty consistently put him right around 50 percent and his rival, Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, in the mid-40s.

Along comes Mike Allen of Politico on MSNBC this morning: “Every indication now is that he’s going to win big.”

Joe Scarborough actually cuts him off in surprise at how Allen so casually asserts that the recall isn’t expected to be close.

“The Left, labor, Democrats, which planned to embarrass him, instead have made him a national figure with a very bright future,” Allen continues. “It was money poured down the drain by Democrats and the Left in a presidential election year.”

John Heilemann chimes in, “You notice the White House, the reelection committee in Chicago, they’ve stayed away from Wisconsin. They’ve done these big ad buys, they picked their nine states, Wisconsin not on that list. The reason is they wanted to see how this turned out. They have kept their distance from it.”

Today the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel unveils a special report, revealing that the Milwaukee Police Department has been misreporting and misclassifying violent crimes — hundreds of beatings, stabbings and child abuse cases — resulting in public summaries that claim violent crime is decreasing in the city… when the numbers are actually increasing modestly.

It’s pretty horrifying:

At the request of the Journal Sentinel, FBI crime experts reviewed these and dozens of other incidents and confirmed that they should have been labeled as aggravated assaults. In addition to the more than 500 misreported incidents, the investigation found at least 800 more that fit the same pattern but could not be confirmed through available public records. The Journal Sentinel has submitted an open records request for those cases.

The misclassified crimes included cases where perpetrators threatened to kill victims; stabbed or cut them with knives; and beat them with canes, crowbars and hammers.

Nearly one-third of the assault cases identified by the Journal Sentinel involved the abuse of children – most were struck in the head with belts and electrical cords, causing cuts, bloody eardrums and black eyes.

Instead of accurately reporting the weapons used as firearms, knives or blunt objects, the department reported them to the state and FBI in a way that avoided triggering scrutiny by those who review the numbers.

Criminologists reviewed the Journal Sentinel’s findings and said they showed a pattern of misreporting that has helped drive down the city’s crime rate.

And the phenomenon is too frequent to be simple human error:

Sam Walker, criminology professor at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, said the Journal Sentinel’s investigation identified patterns that raise questions about the department’s procedures.

“That clearly indicates a systemic problem in the department – there has to be a failure of leadership,” he said. “If (police) do it in one or two cases, it’s not a big deal. If they do it in a large number of cases, it’s suspicious and probably improper. It’s something that needs to be corrected immediately.”

Why are you reading about this on a political blog? Well, one would wonder how high this effort to misrepresent crime statistics went up – was it just in the police department, or did it come from someplace higher? Where was the mayor during all this?

After all, the mayor isn’t shy about bragging about these declines: “I’m extremely pleased to report that in the last four years, we’ve seen dramatic declines in both violent and property crime.  Between 2007 and 2011, total crime decreased 21.1 percent.  This number translates into 25,508 fewer crime victims.  The hard work of the Milwaukee Police Department is having a profound impact on our neighborhoods.”

Say, who is the mayor of Milwaukee? Tom Barrett? Where do I know that name?

Ah yes, he’s the Democrat challenging Scott Walker in the recall election. Say, let’s look at his campaign web site: “Tom has worked with law enforcement, community groups and residents to develop proactive strategies, and he has empowered the city’s police department with the resources and strong leadership it needs to get the job done. As a result, violent crime in Milwaukee has decreased by 20% over the past two years, and homicides are at the lowest levels in more than 20 years.”

Oh, are they, Mr. Mayor? Just how much faith do you have in those figures?

MoveOn.org just sent the following inspiring message to their followers:

From: Daniel Mintz, MoveOn.org Political Action <moveon-help@list.moveon.org>

Date: Wed, May 16, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Subject: DNC underfunding the Walker recall?

Dear MoveOn member,

BREAKING NEWS FROM WISCONSIN: The Democratic National Committee is refusing requests to fund the massive get out the vote effort planned in Wisconsin to recall Scott Walker.1

Wisconsin is ground zero for Democrats this summer—and there are only three weeks before Election Day—which is why this breaking news just doesn’t make sense. Scott Walker and his right-wing allies have spent millions, and they’ll spend millions more in the next few weeks. But Walker’s poll numbers won’t budge and if the Wisconsin Democrats can run the massive field program they have planned, we can win this. Obama for America organizers are hard at work in the state, but the DNC’s lack of support has left a huge hole in the get out the vote budget. So MoveOn members need to step up. Can you help recall Walker?

Chip in $5 to the Wisconsin Democrats on ActBlue to beat Scott Walker.Wisconsin citizens, with the support of activists from all around the country, have accomplished more than anyone thought possible. They’ve inspired all of us, and put fear into the hearts of other governors who wanted to attack the 99%. But if Walker survives the recall, we’ll have wasted a year of effort.

With only a few weeks left, the DNC is feeling the heat and says they may provide more help, but we can’t wait for them. We have to do it ourselves.Can you chip in $5 today via ActBlue to make sure that Scott Walker is finally recalled from office?

Thanks for all you do.

What’s your favorite part? Beginning with the news that the DNC is refusing to pay for get-out-the-vote efforts, the befuddled lament that “this breaking news just doesn’t make sense” — almost as if the DNC thinks it would be throwing its money away or something! — or the declaration that “Walker’s poll numbers won’t budge”? (Hint: When Walker is ahead, it’s not good news for MoveOn’s target demographic that they won’t budge.)

“If Walker survives the recall, we’ll have wasted a year of effort.” If Walker keeps his current lead on Election Day, we should remind them of that when they start talking about “moral victories” and “sending a message.”

On MSNBC, Chuck Todd just asked Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutter, if the DNC – controlled by Obama, remember – would be sending financial assistance to Tom Barrett, Wisconsin Democrats, and other folks hoping to unseat Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in next month’s recall.

“I have no idea,” she said repeatedly. She emphasized that the campaign would be trying to mobilize volunteers and other non-financial means of helping Democrats in that state.

Two observations:

1) There is no way that the deputy campaign manager of the Obama campaign does not know whether a national organization with $24 million in the bank will allocate $500,000 to unseat a Republican governor in a swing state five months before Election Day.

2) If the answer is not “yes,” it is “no.”

Interesting: The DNC is refusing to kick in $500,000 to help Wisconsin Democrats unseat Scott Walker.

The DNC has $24.4 million cash-on-hand as of late April.

The unnamed Wisconsin Democrat quoted in the above report says, “we’re even in the polls, this is a winnable race.” The polling doesn’t quite bear that out; one poll had Barrett ahead in February.

UPDATE: Wow. No wonder folks who loathe Scott Walker need money:

After refining the dataset created by Verify the Recall, a Wisconsin man began running it against other public records and discovered 571 tax delinquents signed Recall petitions.His findings? The total in back taxes owed by petitioners is more than $17 million. The list of individuals can be found through the website, www.putwisconsinfirst.com