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Tags: Carl Paladino

Watch Out, Buffalo School Board!



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Remember Carl Paladino, the 2010 New York gubernatorial candidate in New York who ran on the message, “One wants to clean up Albany with a whisk broom. One might even use a mop. Me, I’ll clean out Albany with a baseball bat. That’s how bad it’s gotten. . . . Albany is a cesspool.”

He’s now running for the Buffalo school board: “The developer is a longtime critic of the board and City Hall, often citing Buffalo’s low high school graduation rate and performance on state tests.”

He’ll clean out the Buffalo school board with a baseball bat!

Tags: Carl Paladino

Paladino Endures a Hitting Slump in the Late Innings



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Perhaps the baseball-bat style loses its appeal after a while . . .

Despite his lead among the many New York State likely voters angry with state government, Republican Carl Paladino is falling behind New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for governor, and now trails 55 – 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

 This compares to a 49 – 43 percent Cuomo lead in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, conducted one week after Paladino’s landslide Republican primary win.

But perhaps Paladino can turn it around with . . . er, a major televised announcement on every channel:

“Paladino has purchased a [block of TV time] in Buffalo with the 3 network affiliates at 5:13 with a satellite uplink avail for downstate media. You cannot turn on the major channels with-out seeing Carl.

“The broadcast will be rerun in Rochester, Albany and Syracuse (broadcast ) and Channel 12 on LI, plus Westchester Fox cable later that evening,” Source 1 tells me. “YNN and NY-1 [were] asked to sell Paladino time for statewide reach — they both declined. [He is] trying to buy FOX statewide at 5:13… Simulcast difficult — may be on at 6 p.m. Huge audience. Then the campaign looked to put it up statewide on a Sports network where few women watch. [It] fell through — too complicated for simulcast. [About] 45 % of general elections upstate will see it…. Satellite will reach [approximately] another 30 % through news outlets.”

Paladino is taping this message — whatever it may be — at 4 p.m., and it will post online at 5:13 p.m., Source 1 said.

Hmmm.“There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical.”

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino

Now It’s Just Cuomo vs. Paladino



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Carl Paladino’s mad-as-hell bid just got a bit easier: Rick Lazio had won the Conservative Party nomination but lost the GOP nomination to Paladino. Now word is Lazio is ending his bid entirely.

This will prevent the anti-Cuomo vote from being split between two candidates. Paladino still faces a steep uphill climb, but that climb looks a little easier today.

UPDATE: A New York reader says that now, barring some sudden new development, Paladino will be the nominee of the Conservative Party as well.

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino , Rick Lazio

A ‘Salvage Operation’ for New York Democrats?



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Readers send me articles like this one below from Nassau County, New York, and I say, “Pull out all the stops, GOP. You may never get a stronger wind at your back than there is this year.”

8. Seemingly out of the blue, the State Senate Republican Campaign Committee have out-fundraised their Democratic counterparts since the middle of August. The Democrats went in heavily favored to pick up several seats. Now, a legislative staffer tells me it looks like a salvage operation. I opined that this can’t be possible, even for the State Senate Dems. “I’m not kidding,” I was told on the 10th of September. . . . 9. And then, suddenly, there was Mr. Carl Paladino.…

Perhaps every New York Republican should adopt the baseball bat as a symbol . . .

Tags: Carl Paladino , New York

The GOP’s Empire State of Mind



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Well, New York is either seeing a big Republican surge . . . or it isn’t.

Arguing against:

The Siena Research Institute found [Democrat gubernatorial candidate Andrew] Cuomo beats [Republican Carl] Paladino 57 percent to 24 percent among registered voters. Conservative Party nominee Rick Lazio is backed by 8 percent, while 10 percent are undecided.

Further arguing against:

A new poll finds Democratic Sens. Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand maintaining double-digit leads over their Republican challengers. The Siena College poll released Thursday found Gillibrand leading Republican Senate candidate Joe DioGuardi by 57 percent to 31 percent. Schumer has a wider lead over Jay Townsend, 63 percent to 30 percent.

But I would note that these polls are of registered voters; the shocking ones from Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA are of likely voters.

A Washington Republican points to interesting local results in November 2009 as a possible omen. I wrote at the time:

NASSAU COUNTY

Republican challenger Ed Mangano is, as of this writing, not quite the next Nassau county executive. But he leads Tom Suozzi by 353 votes after a weekend of absentee and affidavit ballot counting, a process of counting that is expected to extend past the Thanksgiving holiday.

A county-executive race doesn’t dominate the headlines the way a presidential race does, but Suozzi entered this race the heavy favorite. In a county with more registered Democrats than Republicans, in a state where the GOP is supposed to be dead, an incumbent with a huge fundraising advantage ought to be able to win in his sleep. Perhaps that is a good way of describing what Suozzi attempted; he finished the race with perhaps $2 million in his campaign war chest unspent.

Mangano’s message was nothing fancy; he was a local who pledged to eliminate government waste. As in New Jersey, locals are furious about high property taxes, and in a slumping economy (the local unemployment rate in October was 7.2 percent, compared to 5 percent a year earlier) the general mood was frustration that government was taking more but delivering less. Suozzi had spent earlier years criticizing state government and running a “fix Albany” campaign (part of his failed bid for governor in 2006); Mangano jabbed that Suozzi was “so busy trying to fix Albany, he forgot about Nassau County.”

In the end, Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats were; Newsday found turnout in traditional GOP areas was 32 percent, while it was 22 percent in traditionally Democratic neighborhoods.

WESTCHESTER COUNTY

Rob Astorino is supposed to be the kind of Republican candidate who can’t win in the northeast anymore. He ran a fairly explicit campaign emphasizing fiscal conservatism, depicting the county’s management as wasteful, bureaucratic, inefficient, corrupt, and out of touch. He hammered his rival, telling voters that the incumbent county executive, Andy Spano, “raised your taxes almost 60 percent in the last seven years alone. Mr. Spano has ballooned the annual budget by $1 billion in the past 12 years, from $800 million to $1.8 billion per year. He spends more than 87 nations do, and you pay for it.” Intriguingly, while the pro-life Astorino didn’t put his faith or social views front and center, his conservative bona fides are impeccable:  He is a radio host and program director for the Catholic Channel on Sirius Satellite Radio and hosts a Thursday-night program with Cardinal Edward Egan, the former archbishop of New York.

Astorino shellacked the three-term Democrat, 57 percent to 43 percent, in a county where Democrats have nearly a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration.  This is a county where Al Gore and John Kerry carried 58 percent of the vote, the county Bill and Hillary Clinton call home. It may be a bit self-serving, but Spano contends that his defeat reflects voters’ anger at Democrats at the state and national level. “It has nothing to do with me, as far as I’m concerned,” he told the New York Times. “They’re mad at Albany, and Washington.”

A big problem for all of the GOP’s statewide candidates will be money; New York is among the most expensive states to run in. One Republican worried that Gillibrand has a big war chest that she’s going to be putting to use the next six weeks, while DioGuardi doesn’t have much in the bank. “Anything is possible in this environment but he needs to raise money fast,” he said.

UPDATE: Brian Walsh, NRSC Communications Director: “Since being appointed by David Paterson, Kirsten Gillibrand has blindly rubberstamped her party bosses’ out-of-control spending and debt in Washington, and it’s clear that, just like the rest of the country, voters in New York are fed up with the Democrats’ reckless spending agenda.  So the message to voters from our candidates in New York is the same as our other Republican candidates across the country which is that ‘if you support the bailouts, support a $13 trillion debt, support government health care and support tax increases in a recession than vote for Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer. But if you believe we need to restore accountability and responsibility in Washington than vote for Joe DioGuardi and Jay Townsend.’  It’s clear this message is resonating and we intend to carry it forward in New York and around the country right up until November 2nd.”

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino , Chuck Schumer , Jay Townsend , Joe DioGuardi , Kirsten Gillebrand

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York . . . Leading by Only One Point?



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Ladies and gentlemen, unless SurveyUSA had a wildly off-kilter sample . . . New York now has two competitive statewide races.

Republican candidate for Governor, Carl Paladino is nine percentage points behind Democrat Andrew Cuomo, according a new scientific poll commissioned by Two On Your Side, the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and the White Plains Journal News.

The poll shows Cuomo with 49% of the vote. Paladino has 40%. Eight percent said they would vote for another candidate and three percent were still undecided.

There is a 4.2% margin of error.

Survey USA interviewed 1,000 adults in New York State on September 20th and 21st.

Of them, 867 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 572 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election.

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand’s nominal 1-point lead being within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error.

Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC but trails elsewhere.

SurveyUSA also finds that in New York’s general election for U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Jay Townsend 54 percent to 33 percent.

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino , Joe DioGuardi , Kirsten Gillebrand

In New York, GOP’s Paladino Trails Cuomo by Only 6? Only 6?!?



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Two shockers from Quinnipiac this morning, each one making the other a wee bit suspect.

In Pennsylvania

Republican Pat Toomey has hit the magic 50 percent mark as he leads Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 – 43 percent in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.

Pennsylvania likely voters disapprove 56 – 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  This first general election survey of Pennsylvania likely voters in this election cycle cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

I’m sure Team Toomey will take it, but a seven-point margin is actually one of the better ones Sestak has seen lately.

But here’s the holy-smokes-can-this-be-real one:

Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 – 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Only 18 percent of New York State likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, but they back Paladino 77 – 18 percent.

Cuomo leads 87 – 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino leads 83 – 13 percent among Republicans and 49 – 43 percent among independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.  This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.  

I’ve been lamenting for weeks that a bunch of strong GOP House candidates in New York were going to be hurt by the lack of top-of-the-ticket help or even a competitive statewide race among the big three: the governor’s race and the two Senate races. Well, Paladino, who’s pledging to clean up Albany with a baseball bat, looks like he’s in a competitive race.

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino , Joe Sestak , Pat Toomey

A Trio of Interesting Polls From Rasmussen



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Interesting bits and pieces from Rasmussen in the past 24 hours . . .

In Indiana’s Senate race, Republican Dan Coats leads Brad Ellsworth, 50 percent to 34 percent. That’s actually good news for Ellsworth, who previously trailed, 50 percent to 29 percent. A Coats victory isn’t surprising; what is a bit surprising is that the Democrats further endangered a House seat by persuading Ellsworth to make this Senate bid, and Coats could well help create coattails for three Republicans in House races in this state.

In New York’s governor’s race, Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino, last seen pledging to clean Albany with a baseball bat, 54 percent to 38 percent. While I wouldn’t bet money on a Paladino win, that’s a bit closer than I think most expected this race to be.

It’s the same margin — 54 to 38 — in Maryland’s Senate race, where longtime incumbent Barbara Mikulski leads Republican Eric Wargotz. In Mikulski’s past four elections, she has won 64.7 percent, 70.5 percent, 71 percent, and 60.6 percent. Obviously, she’s heavily favored in November, but she may be a useful indicator; well-established Democratic names in deep-blue states can expect to run six points or so behind their previous all-time worst.

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Barbara Mikulski , Brad Ellsworth , Carl Paladino , Dan Coats , Eric Wargotz

Sean Duffy Will Cut Waste, Balance the Budget, and Maybe Even Scalp Somebody



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New York GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino wants to clean out Albany with a baseball bat.

Sean Duffy, GOP congressional candidate from Wisconsin: A baseball bat? You wimp.

UPDATE: The GOP Senate candidate in Washington, Dino Rossi, isn’t too shabby with an ax, either:

Tags: Carl Paladino , Sean Duffy

Running Against the Status Cuomo



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Well, it’s not like the New York State Republican party can argue they’ve earned the loyalty and faith of the grassroots.

Does Carl Paladino have a steep uphill climb in New York’s governor’s race? Yup.

But in this environment, when Albany has found the ability to keep pace with Springfield, Sacramento, and the old Trenton for corruption, incompetence, immature bickering, and generally embarrassing behavior, would you want to be the state attorney general and heir to a state political dynasty?

Or would you rather be the guy running on the message, ”One wants to clean up Albany with a whisk broom. One might even use a mop. Me, I’ll clean out Albany with a baseball bat. That’s how bad it’s gotten . . . Albany is a cesspool.”

It’s been a long time since New York had an interesting statewide Republican primary, but 440,000 votes between two not-well-known candidates is pretty encouraging.

UPDATE: Dan McLaughlin reminds me that as Paladino becomes preeminent, he is expected to have enthusiasms. (Violent content warning below.)

Tags: Andrew Cuomo , Carl Paladino

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