As expected, Democrats win in blow-outs in the gubernatorial and senatorial elections. But there’s some good news for conservatives in the Empire State

NY-01 is closer than expected. With 40 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic incumbent Timothy Bishop is leading Republican challenger Randy Altschuler 52 percent to 48. That’s a difference of about 800 votes. [UPDATE: With 78 percent of precincts reporting, Bishop leads by about 3,600 votes, 51 to 49 percent.]

NY-04 shows Republican Francis Becker trailing Democratic incumbent Carolyn McCarthy 57 to 43 percent — with only 24 percent of precincts reporting.

NY-13 is a big surprise. Republican Mike Grimm is actually leading Democratic incumbent Michael McMahon 51 to 48 percent, or 43,678 to 40,919. This is huge. The fivethirtyeight model gave McMahon a 90 percent chance at reelection.

In NY-19 and NY-20, Republicans Nan Hayworth and Chris Gibson, respectively, are sailing to easy victories against Democratic incumbents. They’re going to win, and once they’re in office they’ll be ones to watch.

NY-23 could be a source of consternation to New York conservatives. Democratic incumbent Bill Owens is currently leading Republican challenger Matthew Doheny, with only 48 percent of the vote! So what gives? As reporter Tim Mak tweeted, “Doheny is down by about five points. The margin of error? Doug Hoffman.” Hoffman, the Conservative-party nominee, decided to get behind Doheny in October, but not before it was too late to get his name off of the ballot on the Conservative line.

NY-24 is another strong victory for Republicans. Richard Hanna currently leads incumbent Democrat Michael Arcuri by over 9,000 votes, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.

NY-25 is surprisingly close, but probably not close enough. Republican Ann Marie Buerkle trails incumbent Democrat Daniel Maffei 51 to 49 percent — a 3,600 vote difference — with 92 percent of precincts reporting.

In NY-29, Republican Thomas Reed will certainly win against Thomas Zeller in their race for the disgraced Eric Massa’s seat.

Following up on my earlier post, there are three more Republicans with a chance to pick up House seats currently occupied by Democrats.

• In NY-23, which stretches New York’s Canadian border, Republican Matt Doheny will likely defeat incumbent Democrat Bill Owens, according to recent polls. Owens has served since November 6, 2009, after winning a peculiar special election which resulted from Republican John M. McHugh’s appointment as Secretary of the Army, and attendant resignation of his House seat. One cause for concern: Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman remains on the ballot; he has, in recent weeks, encouraged his supporters to get behind Doheny.

• In NY-29, expect a landslide victory for Republican Thomas Reed over Democrat Matthew Zeller. Reed has benefited from a huge fundraising advantage and some bad press for Democrats in the area. Zeller, nota bene, is not an incumbent — the seat was previously held by the disgraced, and now resigned, Democrat Eric Massa.  

• NY-24 looks to be a tossup, with the New York Times giving incumbent Democrat Michael Arcuri a 60 percent chance at victory over Richard Hanna, his Republican challenger. Hanna is another remarkable figure, with a business background, but an academic bent signaled by his involvement with Cato Institute study groups.  Arcuri polls 50.8 percent to Hanna’s 49.2 percent, so voter turnout will be crucial.

And, Republicans will almost certainly keep the only two House seats (out of New York’s 29) they had coming into this election — Peter King in NY-3, and Christopher Lee in NY-26 will both be reelected. Lastly, if you missed it before, check out my post on Republicans Chris Gibson and Nan Hayworth, also likely winners.

The rest of New York? Mostly Democratic shoo-ins, with a few whispers that Democrats Tim Bishop and Maurice Hinchey could be unseated, and a slight chance for Republicans on Staten Island. More on these later. 

The punditocracy’s line this election cycle has been that the Tea Party, anti-Democratic surge has passed New York by. There’s some truth to that. The charismatic and highly qualified Joe DioGuardi barely threatened incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, despite her low approval rating — DioGuardi’s apocalyptic warnings about the budget just didn’t catch on with New York voters. So too have Carl Paladino’s gaffes deprived New York conservatives of what could have been a real chance to reclaim the governorship; he’s hurt down-ticket Republicans as well.

Things are tough in New York as a whole. 27 of her 29 House seats are currently held by Democrats. But there’s some good news for Republicans. Here are two races to watch:

• In NY-20, Col. Dr. Chris Gibson is poised to take down Democratic incumbent Scott Murphy. Gibson is, without question, an impressive guy. He served 7 combat tours in the Army, including 4 in Iraq, and left the service with a Purple Heart and two Bronze Stars. Then he took a PhD in Government from Cornell. In debates, he was impressively cerebral while sparring with Scott Murphy — how often do House candidates quote Amity Shlaes and argue about depression economics? The most recent Siena Research Institute poll gave Gibson a 9-point advantage. This week, Murphy released an internal poll showing up by 2. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. 
• In  NY-19, Republican Nan Hayworth is, like Gibson, a cerebral candidate happy to identify with, and benefit from, Tea Party sentiment. The Cornell and  Princeton educated opthamologist is campaigning as a businesswoman and mother against John Hall, the incubment Senator, Democrat, and former musician. Hall’s attempt to sue one of Hayworth’s college staffers over a satirical video reeks of desperation. That desperation is appropriate: the New York Times gives Hayworth a 70% chance of unseating Hall. 

Last week, several handicapping organizations moved the race for the NY-23 congressional seat — between incumbent Rep. Bill Owens (D) and GOP challenger Matt Doheny — from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up” after Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman announced he was suspending his campaign.

Even before Hoffman dropped out (his name will remain on the ballot), a Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Doheny leading Owens 51-37 percent. Thirty percent of voters said Owens deserves reelection, while 47 percent said it’s time for a change. Owens won the seat in a special election last fall, becoming the first Democrat to occupy the seat in nearly a century. NY-23 has a Cook rating of R+1, and Owens’ support for Obamacare is a sore subject among constituents.

It is understandable then, that Owens has, like many in his situation, been trying to distance himself from the Democratic Party leadership. But few have gone as far as Owens does in this new ad, which states the following (emphasis added): “Wall Street people sure know how to lie with numbers. Bill Owens didn’t vote with Nancy Pelosi 93 percent of the time. He voted with the Republican leader 63 percent of the time.”