A little more than a week ago, I pointed readers to a video of an Arizona political guru Chris Herstam, on the Sunday Square Off program on KPNX Channel 12 in Phoenix, declaring that little-known Republican Ruth McClung is dead even against Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Democrat who so vehemently opposes his own state’s law against illegal immigration that he has called for other states to boycott Arizona.
A couple of folks doubted those internal polls existed; the Arizona Daily Star couldn’t find anyone to confirm Herstam’s claim.
Finally, there’s an actual poll in this district, and it shows McClung doing fairly well for a Republican by the district’s standards, but still having a ways to go to victory: “Republican Ruth McClung released a poll today showing that she trails Democratic Congressman Raul Grijalva by just 7 percentage points in Congressional District 7. Grijalva had the support of 42 percent of the voters in the poll, while McClung had the support of 35 percent. Another 23 percent were undecided… The poll, which has a margin of 4.3 percent, was conducted on Sept. 25-26 by American Political Consulting, which notes that ‘other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.’”
This is a D+6 district, where Grijalva has won 63 percent (2008), 61 percent (2006), 62 percent (2004) and 59 percent (2002). The district is 54 percent Hispanic, 34.3 percent white, 5 percent Native American, 3 percent African-American.