In an election for US Representative from California’s 20th Congressional District today, 10/25/10, Republican challenger Andy Vidak is atop incumbent Democrat Jim Costa, 52% to 42%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted in English and in Spanish for KFSN-TV Fresno.
Costa has experienced across-the-board erosion since SurveyUSA’s last poll 6 weeks ago: Among women, Costa had led by 14, now leads by 2. Among voters age 50+, Costa had led by 3, now trails by 14. Among voters without a college degree, Cost had led by 6, now trails by 11.
Whites vote Republican. Hispanics vote Democrat. If Hispanic turnout is higher than the 36% shown here, Costa performs better, but still trails. For example, if Hispanic turnout is modeled at 40%, Vidak today would lead by 7 points. If Hispanic turnout is modeled at 30%, Vidak would lead by 12 points.
Costa won a 3rd term in 2008 with 74% of the vote. Significant spending by outside groups is occurring in the district, the Fresno Bee reported on 10/23/10. The impact of ads attacking the Democrat, taken out by 2 conservative groups, appears to be reflected in these poll results.