Today’s Morning Jolt features… (sigh) yes, some Bob Filner and Carlos Danger Anthony Weiner revelations and reaction, but also an eye on the upcoming lower-ticket campaigns that might not get nearly as much attention…

Looking at the House Races and Even Lower on the Ticket…

You can always tell which incumbents a national party committee thinks are most vulnerable by who they tout the most. The NRCC has the “Patriot Program,” which lists 20 incumbents who… well, I’ll let the NRCC describe it: “a goal-oriented program helps Members stay on offense and fully prepare for their re-election campaigns. Through a number of Member-based communications, fundraising and strategy goals established at the beginning of the cycle, the program helps to ensure that its members are ready to run well-funded and organized campaigns against their Democratic opponents.”

The current lineup: Reps. Dan Benishek (Mich.), Gary Miller (Calif.) Michael Grimm (N.Y.), Bill Johnson (Ohio), Tom Latham (Iowa), Tom Reed (N.Y.), Scott Rigell (Va.), Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) Lee Terry (R-Neb.) Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Steve Southerland (Fla.) Rodney Davis (Ill.) Jeff Denham (Calif.), Mike Fitzpatrick (Pa.) Bob Gibbs (Ohio), Chris Gibson (N.Y.), Joe Heck (Nev.), David Joyce (Ohio), David Valadao (Calif.) and Jackie Walorski (Ind.). Not too many surprises there; most of those districts were either carried by Obama or represented by a Democrat until recently.

Meanwhile, the NRCC notices that the South Florida real estate market is so hot, at least one Democratic Congressman hasn’t been able to move into his district.

It has been almost a year since Joe Garcia told The Miami Herald’s editorial board that he’d move into the new Key West-to-Miami-Dade Congressional District 26 if he won.

Garcia won. But he hasn’t yet moved. His office said the freshman Democrat is in the process of getting a place.

Maybe he’s just waiting for prices to come down.

Meanwhile, Democrats are beginning to realize that having a pop-culturally-dominant messiah at the top of the ticket, but paying less attention down-ticket, has big consequences:

Barack Obama has spent well over $1 billion on his political campaigns, but it’s the $20 million to $30 million Democrats didn’t shell out three years ago that is costing the White House as he slogs through the first six months of his second term.

The GOP’s wildly successful, low-key and stunningly cheap campaign to seize state capitals in 2010 has come back to haunt Obama and his fellow Democrats. It’s now clear that the party’s loss of 20 state legislative chambers and critical Midwestern governorships represents an ongoing threat every bit as dangerous as the more publicized Republican takeback of the House that same year.

There was no stopping the GOP wave that year — but strategists in both parties say Obama’s team might have blunted it if they had somehow managed to cut into the GOP’s cash advantage — $30 million to the Democrats’ $10 million — in statehouse races by making campaigns at the very bottom of the ballot a priority.

Eh. Obama has always been very skilled at persuading voters to believe in him. They’re not so persuaded when he touts Jon Corzine, Martha Coakley, Creigh Deeds, or most of the 2010 Democrats…

From the Tuesday edition of the Morning Jolt:

Morning Jolt reader Dexter flew through Miami recently and encountered this sign:

Notice that NO ONE HAS BEEN FURLOUGHED YET.

For a short furlough of a covered employee, the law (5 U.S.C. 7513) gives a covered employee the following rights:

At least 30 calendar days advance written notice by the agency stating the specific reasons for the proposed action. (Typically, the reasons for the action would involve a lack of work or funds.) The 30 calendar day period begins upon an employee’s receipt of the written notice. Therefore, agencies should plan accordingly to allow time for mailing the notice when hand-delivery is not possible.

As you know, it has been 19 days since the sequestration was announced.

So either someone broke the law and furloughed Customs and Border Protection employees without thirty days notice, or this sign is pre-emptive. Of course, the sign is in past tense, “staffing has been reduced.”

Gee, what else happened at Miami airports last month?

“The lines were not going to get better, they were going to get worse, “said Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, “and that prediction came true.” The congresswoman toured local airports Monday to witness the delays firsthand. She called the situation “unacceptable.”

…While he toured the airport with Napolitano and U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, [Democratic Rep. Joe] Garcia noted that half of the 72 booths at the international-passenger checkpoint were unstaffed on Wednesday.

Giant delays, and signs blaming sequestration furloughs that haven’t taken effect yet, one month after the chair of the Democratic National Committee comes to tour and declare the situation unacceptable? What an amazingly convenient sequence of events.

UPDATE: For a comparison to elsewhere in the government, a reader familiar with the Department of Defense tells me, “First furlough notices for DoD are due this Thursday – so it will be another 30 days from then…late April.”

If I had to pick a currently held GOP House seat that surprisingly slips to the Democrats on Election Day, it might be this one:

While most of Florida’s 25 congressional races tilt toward Republicans this year, Democrats’ best chance for a takeaway is in South Florida’s sprawling 25th District, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows.

Republican David Rivera holds a 44-43 lead over Democrat Joe Garcia in a four-way contest for the seat being vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami.

TEA Party candidate Rolly Arrojo garnered 6 percent, Whig Party hopeful Craig Porter got 2 percent and 5 percent were undecided in the Oct. 25-26 poll.

“Rivera should be considered the slight favorite to win based on historical voting patterns, but there are some red flags that could tilt this race to Garcia,” said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll.

Two things going for Rivera: He has a 39/36 favorable/unfavorable rating compared with 35/43 for Garcia, and he leads among the most likely voters by a 48-41 margin.

That’s not a terrible position for a GOP candidate, in a R+5 district, in a year when Florida Republicans have a monstrous margin in early voting so far. But I’ve had a bad feeling about this seat since incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart announced he was leaving that district to run for Congress in the adjacent district.