I realize it’s only March, but in just eight months, Virginia will be electing a new governor, a new lieutenant governor, and a new state attorney general, and 100 seats in the House of Delegates will be on the ballot.

In the gubernatorial race, you would think the candidates would want their websites up, rocking and rolling. Indeed, Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican nominee, has his up and running, with YouTube videos, a detailed biography, a news page, an events page, and archives going back to October.

Bill Bolling, the currently-Republican lieutenant governor who’s unknown to 72 percent of Virginians, also has a fairly sizable site, including his February 28 statement that he’s deciding whether or not to seek the office of governor as “an Independent Republican.”

But Terry McAuliffe, the energetic former DNC chair who’s the Democratic nominee, has . . . well, a donation page, a place to sign up for e-mails, a Facebook page, and a Twitter feed. No biography or issue pages yet. A bit sparse.

Maybe when they expand the web site, they’ll find room for my rave review of his autobiography.

Hmmmm.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are in a 38 – 38 percent dead heat in their race to become Virginia’s next governor. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, running as an independent candidate, leaves the race a statistical tie, with McAuliffe at 34 percent, Cuccinelli at 31 percent and Bolling at 13 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Bolling, elected as a Republican, said he will make a major announcement next month, presumably about the governor’s race.

When talking up the possibility of an independent bid, Bolling said earlier this month, “I think there is a definite opening in this campaign for a credible independent candidate… We will have our decision made and announced by March 14.”

Is 13 percent really the threshold of support to be a credible independent candidate? Of course, candidates tend to assess their own viability and credibility with a distinctly non-objective eye. Bolling has been lieutenant governor of the state for eight years, and found himself unlikely to be able to win the gubernatorial nomination over Cuccinelli at the state convention. Bolling and his crew may be angry that the Virginia GOP decided to select their nominee at a convention instead of a primary, but he shouldn’t have any illusions about the likely outcome in that venue as well; in June of last year, Cuccinelli led Bolling 51 percent to 15 percent.

But this may come down to what Bolling really wants to see: his own victory… or Ken Cuccinelli’s defeat.

In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, Republican Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign is making a big deal about one of Terry McAuliffe’s companies, GreenTech Automotive.

In 2009, electric-car company GreenTech Automotive decided to locate its manufacturing plant in Mississippi instead of Virginia — pledging to bring at least 1,500 jobs to that state.

Asked why McAuliffe’s company picked Mississippi instead of Virginia, the Democratic candidate contended that officials at the Virginia Economic Development Partnership — the state’s business recruitment agency — weren’t interested. “They decided they didn’t want to bid on it.”

PolitiFact Virginia extensively reviewed the state records and came to the opposite conclusion:

Records showed VEDP staff were interested in the project and were in the process of its due diligence when GreenTech moved ahead with a plant in Mississippi.

VEDP had “grave concerns” about GreenTech’s business plan. The agency said GreenTech Agency officials had no “demonstrated experience” in manufacturing cars. It doubted the company’s job estimates. It questioned the ethics of GreenTech’s plan to raise money from foreign investors in exchange for U.S. residency.

The record shows that VEDP asked GreenTech to address its concerns and waited in vain for replies. Without those answers, VEDP would not negotiate monetary support for that, or any, project.Contrary to McAuliffe’s claim, there is no evidence the state agency decided not to bid on the project.

Emails show VEDP took GreenTech officials on a tour of potential sites and contacted the company about coming to Virginia almost two years after GreenTech announced it was building a plant in Mississippi.

We rate McAuliffe’s statement False.

The topic may or may not turn out to be a big deal in the year ahead, but McAuliffe was asked about it and is now offering a new spin — it wasn’t his fault, somebody else made the decision.

“They made the decision, the company made the decision,” McAuliffe told a radio host Friday.

McAuliffe must be the most strangely powerless chairman of a company ever.

This afternoon, Virginia state attorney general Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign for governor filed its end-of-year finance report with the State Board of Elections, covering the last six months of 2012.

Total contributions: $1,074,097

Cash on hand: $1,178,624.57

Number of individual contributions: 4,383

Number of contributions under $100: 3,021

Statement from Ken Cuccinelli:

As we enter 2013, I continue to focus on the issues that matter most to the Commonwealth — creating new jobs, growing our economy, and expanding economic opportunity for all Virginians. These are the issues that I have worked hard to defend as Attorney General and will continue to advance in the years ahead. The broad base of support that I have received so far is reflective of the investment thousands of Virginians have made in my campaign. I want to take this opportunity to thank them all for their continued support. My campaigns have always relied on local Virginians to propel us to victory. My campaign for governor is no exception.

Here’s the problem for Cuccinelli:  His Democratic opponent, former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, stands as one of the all-time great political fundraisers. Four years ago, McAuliffe spent a whopping $68.25 for each of his 84,640 votes in Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, or $5,776,922.

Well, that was an easy primary:

The deadline to file to run for governor in Virginia as a Republican was 5 p.m. today. State attorney general Ken Cuccinelli is the only candidate to file.

Republican Governors Association spokesman Mike Schrimpf issued the following statement:

With the nomination secured, Ken Cuccinelli is now able to move forward, focused on the pocketbook issues Virginians care about. Ken understands middle-class values, and throughout his time in public service, he has always been a guardian of the taxpayers’ money and has a record of working to make sure Virginia is a great place to live, work and raise a family.

Meanwhile, former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe has spent the last two decades raising money for national Democrats and showing no interest in Virginia issues until running for governor. For twenty years, Chairman McAuliffe’s priorities have been raising money, defeating his opponents at all costs and self-promotion. Those aren’t the values Virginians are looking for in their next governor.

Ken Cuccinelli is the only candidate who understands the issues and can be trusted to be Virginia’s next governor.

For what it is worth, few of the Virginia Republicans I have spoken to today think the current lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling, will launch an independent bid for governor next year, as the Washington Post is speculating.

Bolling has been lieutenant governor for seven years and would face a tough primary fight with the state’s attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli. (The current governor, Bob McDonnell, leapfrogged from the AG spot to the governorship in 2009.) Polling for much of the year suggested Cuccinelli had a significant edge, perhaps as much as a 3-to-1 advantage.

Virginia Republicans recently decided to select their gubernatorial nominee at the state convention instead of through a statewide primary — shifting the decision to about 20,000 to 50,000 committed activists, and putting Bolling at an advantage he apparently found insurmountable.

So why not run as an independent? Bolling has been a loyal Republican officeholder since 1991, and still has one year left on his term as lieutenant governor. He’s scheduled to speak to the state party this weekend in Virginia Beach. He’s currently respected and admired among a lot of Republicans who didn’t have him as their first choice in next year’s gubernatorial race, but an independent bid would burn a lot of bridges (and probably be much better news for the Democratic candidate than for Bolling).

Elsewhere, the Republican party of Virginia is already tweaking the opposition about their . . . problematic options in 2013′s gubernatorial race. Their release this afternoon:

And so it begins. With a shallow bench, and no message or plan to speak of, Virginia Democrats pin their hopes for 2013 on a failed, flawed candidate who spent $7 million on a primary and lost . . .  to Creigh Deeds.

The same guy who knew he wanted to run for Governor, but wasn’t sure about what state he would do it from. The same guy who likes to talk up all the manufacturing jobs he’s created . . . in Mississippi, because Virginia wouldn’t give him enough corporate welfare.

But not all Democrats are in love with their candidate. In fact, a number of them, particularly in the netroots community, are hoping and praying another failed candidate to enter the race: one of President Obama’s favorite (ex)- Congressmen, Tom Perriello.

Democrats have two less-than-appealing choices:

The guy who said “If you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing”

or

The guy who had a chance to create hundreds of jobs in Virginia, but chose Mississippi instead? And whose primary occupation is raising money for Democrats (and name dropping Bill Clinton?)

RPV Chairman Pat Mullins gave the following statement:

“Where have I heard this before? A Republican party united around one candidate for Governor headed into the election, while Democrats are less than thrilled with their current crop of failed retreads. 

Meanwhile, faced with unappealing candidates with no plan for the economy other than ‘raise taxes’ in the face of a tough economy, Democrats launch an all out assault attempting to paint the Republican nominee as extreme, while they focus on social issues to the exclusion of all else. 

Sounds quite a bit like 2009. I’m looking forward to next November already.”

The lesson of today’s Morning Jolt is that campaign news never really stops . . .

Could She Who Scoffed at Red Sox Fans Be Back?

Oh please, oh please . . .

She is the woman who couldn’t beat Scott Brown, but now she’s the Democrats’ best hope to keep the governor’s office in 2014.

Don’t laugh, but that woman is Attorney General Martha Coakley.

Lt. Gov. Tim Murray? Treasurer Steve Grossman? Please. If they’re the best the party can offer, then Republicans might actually have a chance at winning a statewide race again.

Coakley is still scarred from her 2010 Senate defeat, and many Democrats shudder at the thought of her running again. There is a possibility Gov. Deval Patrick could appoint her to U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry’s seat if Kerry gets a Cabinet post, but sources said she’s more interested in succeeding Patrick in the Corner Office.

“That’s what she’s definitely looking at,” one veteran Democratic strategist said.

Now the irony is that I’ve heard Scott Brown is also more interested in being governor of Massachusetts than running for Senate again.

Brown vs. Coakley: The Rematch!

Judging a Booker Poll by Its Cover

It’s early, but . . . maybe the 2009 gubernatorial races aren’t going to be so exciting. In Virginia, we’ll see Ken Cuccinelli as the GOP nominee, since Bill Bolling has suddenly dropped his bid. At this point, it looks like Cuccinelli will be taking on the jovial soul Terry McAuliffe, a former DNC chair who flamed out in a 2009 bid. McAuliffe would be a very, very “northern Virginia” candidate, which may or may not be enough in an off-year election.

Then there’s New Jersey, where everyone thought there was a chance of a clash of the titans, incumbent Republican Chris Christie against Democrat Cory Booker, mayor of Newark. Eh, maybe not so much:

Newark Mayor Cory Booker remains the wild card, with political observers believing he is the Democrat with the best chance of ousting Christie. He didn’t respond to an interview request and his Twitter account was silent on political matters.

Booker fares best among Democrats against Christie in head-to-head tests in a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll but still would get thumped by Christie, 53 percent to 34 percent, if the election took place now.

The poll also shows 59 percent of New Jersey voters support a second term for Christie, with 32 percent opposing. Support for Christie’s re-election has risen dramatically since before Sandy, said David Red­lawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and a professor of political science at Rutgers.

The sequence could scare off Booker, Red­lawsk said. “Any Democrat, even Booker, has to take these numbers seriously. At the same time Booker remains the Democrat who would seem to have the best chance in the early running.”

Liz Marlantes of the Christian Science Monitor looks at some recent examples of governors who had their popularity changed by hurricanes:

. . . the goodwill Christie amassed in the weeks immediately following the storm shouldn’t be underestimated, either. A perhaps more relevant comparison is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — who, interestingly, seems to be pondering a 2016 run himself. Bush was widely praised by Democrats and Republicans alike for his handling of a series of hurricanes that battered the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005. The St. Petersburg Times dubbed him “The Hurricane Governor” in a laudatory profile that quoted Democratic strategists who’d worked for his opponent as saying he’d been “a superb leader.” Two years later, Bush left office with a nearly 60 percent approval rating.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that Bush’s predecessor, former Florida governor Lawton Chiles, was roundly criticized in the wake of 1992’s Hurricane Andrew — with his approval rating in the state going all the way down to a dismal 22 percent. Two years later he won reelection, anyway.

In what is undoubtedly the same kind of buzz that got President Jon Huntsman where he is today, the New Yorker is suddenly writing gushing profiles that talk about Christie’s presidential potential:

As a launching pad for Christie’s 2013 reëlection campaign, all of this could hardly be better, and it also provides him with a ready route to 2016. If he wins next year, which seems likely, he can continue the process of rebuilding the areas battered by Sandy and push through more reforms, while quietly constructing the political operation and campaign chest he needed for a run in 2016. Here, too, being from Jersey is an advantage. The national media and the moneymen are just across the river. (Having been unsuccessfully prevailed upon to run in 2012 by a group of super-rich Republicans, including Rupert Murdoch and Wilbur Ross, Christie shouldn’t have much trouble raising cash.)

Ahem. That was before he was seen as the guy who spent the final weeks before Election Day doing more to restore Obama’s brand as a bipartisan healer more than anyone else this side of Richard Lugar. Some of those GOP moneymen are going to be a little grumpy if Christie calls in the near future, I suspect. They continue:

Small wonder, then, that Christie is widely regarded as one of the front-runners for the G.O.P. nomination in 2016. But before he can be seen as a wholly viable candidate, he still has some issues to resolve, including his record as U.S. Attorney, his political identity inside the Republican Party, and his health.

That last item is a legitimate concern, although clearly Christie has managed to be an effective governor with his weight issues. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his ambitions after 2013 will be his waistline.

The latest mailer from the Democratic party of Virginia here in Yuppie Acres, Alexandria, tells me that if I don’t vote, my state may sudden be under “total control” of Rick Perry, Ken Cuccinelli, Rush Limbaugh, and Sarah Palin. If only, guys, if only. Notice the nonsensical combination: a governor of another state running as a presidential candidate, the current state attorney general, a radio talk-show host, and a former governor of another state who has announced she’s not running for president. Only one of them even lives in the commonwealth, and he’s already in a powerful state office, so it’s not quite clear why he would be joining the Perry-Limbaugh-Palin insurrection against Bob McDonnell, a governor whom he agrees with much of the time.

Oh, what’s that? I shouldn’t look for logic or coherence in Democratic-party mailings? Yeah, I guess you’re right.

From Quinnipiac this morning, news that my governor ranks among the most popular in the nation:

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell has a strong 55 – 26 percent job approval rating, as many more voters like him personally than back his policies, according to the inaugural Quinnipiac University Virginia poll released today.

“Gov. Bob McDonnell’s overall support levels are among the highest when compared to other governors around the country,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “And they are far better than those of his GOP counterparts in Florida, Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Even among Democrats he is within 10 points of parity, an unusually high level of support for a governor from the opposition party.” 

McDonnell’s job approval is 77 – 11 percent among Republicans and 59 – 24 percent among independent voters. Democrats disapprove 42 – 33 percent. Men approve of his performance 61 – 25 percent and women approve 50 – 26 percent. White voters approve 58 – 25 percent, while black voters approve 50 – 25 percent. 

“The legislature doesn’t rate quite as highly with Virginians, although its 48 – 33 percent approval rating is pretty good compared to legislatures in other states,” said Brown. “No matter whether a governor is up or down in the polls, he or she almost always fares better in the public eye than does the state legislature.”

 Virginia’s other statewide leaders, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, also fare well with the public: Bolling gets a 39 – 20 percent approval rating with 42 percent undecided; Cuccinelli gets a 49 – 31 percent approval, with 20 percent undecided. 

Somewhere, a Washington Post editorial board member sheds a tear, as their editorials deemed Cuccinelli particularly outrageous and unacceptable during the 2009 campaign. Note that Cuccinelli is among those leading the legal fight, challenging the constitutionality of Obamacare.

Virginia voters like Gov. McDonnell personally 57 – 16 percent. But when asked if they like most of his policies, support drops to 48 – 33 percent.

A 48 to 33 percent split on policy approval is still pretty darn good compared to most governors in both parties these days.

Conservative web sites are already full of web ads for Cuccinelli.com, the non-office web site of Virginia attorney general Ken Cuccinelli, citing today’s decision declaring Obamacare unconstitutional. Cuccinelli filed suit arguing that the mandate violated the Constitution.

I’m sure the e-mail list that the site is assembling will be a useful tool if Cuccinelli decides to run for governor in 2013. Virginia’s governors are subject to a unique one-term rule.