The news out of Ohio from Quinnipiac this morning represents modest improvement for Republicans, but no reason to break out the party hats yet:

The presidential race in Ohio remains too close to call as President Barack Obama gets 45 percent to 44 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, with a 45 – 45 percent dead heat if the GOP adds home-state Sen. Rob Portman as Romney’s running mate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ohio’s other U.S. Senator, Sherrod Brown, holds a 46 – 40 percent lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger, compared to a 46 – 36 percent Brown lead in a March 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University. This is the first survey showing the race in single digits.

The Romney-Portman v. Obama-Biden match up compares to a February 15 survey in which Obama had 46 percent to Romney’s 44 percent without running mates, moving to Obama-Biden at 47 percent to Romney-Portman at 43 percent.

Notice Romney is winning independents in Ohio, 43 percent to 39 percent; white women split 44 percent to 44 percent.

The news of Mandel looking more competitive is more significant, as Brown appeared to be a vulnerable incumbent in a swing state that shifted heavily to Republicans in 2010 . . . but one who enjoyed a healthy lead so far (although notice how consistently Brown’s support tops out in the high 40s). One of the ways Republicans can maximize their chances of retaking the Senate is to put as many of the cycle’s races “in play,” and for now, Ohio looks like it will be “in play.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee reminds us that the stimulus passed three years ago today, in a web video that represents a beautiful example of using lawmakers’ own boasts and promises against them:

Among the quotes that Obama and Senate Democrats might regret:

Barack Obama: “If I don’t have this done in three years, then this will be a one term proposition.”

Obama boasting he instructed his advisers to “conduct a rigorous analysis of this plan and come up with projections of how many jobs it will create . . .” (while showing the difference between the projections and actual unemployment rate). This will “immediately jump-start job creation as well as long term economic growth . . .”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio): “This stimulus package is just right.”

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.): “We did the stimulus, we did what has been, by the way, wildly successful.”

Obama, laughing: “Shovel-ready wasn’t as shovel-ready as we expected.”

Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies — the independent 501(c)(4)  group with ties to former Bush strategist Karl Rove and former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie — launched a new round of television advertising that targets five U.S. senators in key states on the issue of excessive government spending and debt. New TV spots begin running today through August 6 on network television stations in Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Ohio, and will be complemented by targeted online advertising in those states.

The ads aim to sway U.S. Senators Bill Nelson of Florida, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.

Here’s the Missouri one:

The Florida ad can be viewed here, the Montana ad here, the Nebraska ad here, and the Ohio ad here. 

Although to be fair, President Obama isn’t exactly asking for a “blank” check; he just wants a check for $2.4 trillion, for the next eighteen months or so.

This may be the most unexpected bit of good news to come along for Republicans in a while:

Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel raised an outstanding $2.3 million for his bid against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the Republican’s campaign announced Wednesday.

Mandel raised more in the second quarter of this year than Brown, who announced last week that he collected $1.5 million during the same period.

The Ohio Democrat also reported $3.5 million in the bank at the end of June. Mandel’s campaign did not disclose the candidate’s cash on hand at the end of the quarter.

Brown boasted one of the most impressive hauls of any incumbent Democratic Senator in the past three months. But a release from Mandel’s campaign called his haul “the highest of any Senate challenger in the nation this quarter.”

A challenger outraising an incumbent doesn’t happen all that often. A challenger outraising an incumbent by $800,000 is really rare.

A guy watching the Ohio Senate race closely and a big fan of Mandel observes:

Brown just had a 6 year cash lead basically evaporate in 2 months. Additionally, Mandel is the kind of guy who can not only raise big money in state, he’s the kind of guy to run against a guy like Brown who is a real thorn in conservatives’ side. People wanna give to take out Brown. Mandel’s also got a great story to tell. Two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan as a marine intel officer. This was just from Ohio. He hasn’t even started scratching the surface of what he can do out of state . . . Not to mention all the battleground implications that always go with Ohio.

Ken Blackwell — former Ohio secretary of state and state treasurer, former gubernatorial candidate, NRO contributor, and NR cruiser — is contemplating a run for Senate in 2012, taking on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown.

Supporters of Blackwell have commissioned a poll and like what they see. First, in a primary matchup against newly elected state treasurer Josh Mandel and Rep. Pat Tiberi:

Q: If the 2012 Republican U.S. Senate primary was held today, and the only candidates running were Ken Blackwell, Josh Mandel, and Pat Tiberi, for whom would you vote?

Blackwell    34.1%

Mandel    17.3%

Tiberi    16.3%

Undecided  32.1%

Then in the head-to-head against Brown:

If the election for U.S. Senate was held today, and the only candidates running were Ken Blackwell and Sherrod Brown, for whom would you vote?

Blackwell    32.2%

Brown    45.0%

Undecided    22.8%

Before you shriek in horror, Blackwell fans note that their man hasn’t been in the public eye in Ohio much since his 2006 gubernatorial bid. They put much more importance on Brown being below 50.

In this poll, Pat Tibeiri and Josh Mandel have steeper hills to climb. Tiberi trails, 20.8 percent to 46 percent, while Mandel trails, 21.4 percent to 44 percent.

The poll consists of a sample of 500 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. The sample is 52.4 percent women, 47.6 percent men, and 42.6 percent Democrat, 39.2 percent Republican, 18.2 percent Independent.

The pollsters also decided to ask about the Republican presidential primary. Huckabee led with 24.5 percent; Gingrich was in second with  21.9 percent; Palin was in third with 16.3 percent; Romney fourth with 13.7 percent.  Trailing behind were Bachmann with 5.61 percent, Pawlenty with 3.57 percent, Santorum with just over 2 percent, Huntsman and Barbour with roughly 1.5 percent each. A bit over 9 percent were undecided.

After the recent resurgence in the fortunes of Ohio Republicans, one might think that Sen. Sherrod Brown of the Buckeye state would be facing plenty of potential GOP opponents. But so far, only a trio of little-known candidates have filed papers: Rusty Bliss, Eric LaMont Gregory, and Michael L. Pryce.

With most GOP members of Ohio’s House delegation sounding uninterested, attention is turning to a fresh face… a really fresh face, Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel:

If Jordan, LaTourette and Taylor opt out, there’s growing talk in Columbus that the Senate race might fall into the unlikely lap of Josh Mandel. The newspapers wouldn’t like it, as Mandel is widely viewed as being in too big a hurry. At age 33, Mandel is only three years beyond the constitutional age requirement for serving in the Senate.

But Mandel is a world-class fundraiser and, as a Jewish Republican, could cut — perhaps deeply — into a traditionally Democratic constituency that has been extremely supportive of Brown.

When urged to enter the race, Mandel tells friends his entire focus is on being a good state treasurer. But he doesn’t slam the door.

A Mandel candidacy remains unlikely — as would an eventual victory. But that it’s being talked about seriously is amazing. If, on the day Brown was elected to the U.S. Senate, those who pay close attention to these things were asked to list 100 possible opponents for Brown in 2012, Mandel’s name wouldn’t have been on anyone’s list.

A 33-year-old running for Senate? Now I feel old.

Don’t send him to buy drinks for any victory parties; he’ll probably get carded.