This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.

Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:

NY-9 PVI = D+5
 

Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.