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AN ASIDE [KJL] Kerry thinks Sex and the City is “very good.” That’s alright. We already had eight years of that kind of president. Posted at 11:44 PM SHEESH [KJL>A ] When asked if Seth Meyers is a good Kerry, he adds, “When Will Farrell was doing Bush, I thought he was too nice. You know, make Bush a little more Bush.” Yeah, mean ruthless bastard that he is? You’re not talking to the Bush Haters Guide here, senator. Posted at 11:40 PM BAD TIMING [KJL ] I just saw a copy of this week’s TV Guide (the one that ends tonight), which includes a John Kery interview. The interviewer asks him how he feels when people criticize his wife; he gives the typical answer one gives but throws in ”Nobody in our campaign has ever said anything, ever, except complimentary about Laura Bush, who I think has been a terrific first lady.” Posted at 11:37 PM HOW DOES OBL MAKE YOU FEEL? SCARED? MAD? SAD? ENVIOUS OF ROVIAN GENIUS? [Kathryn Jean Lopez] Ew. The Dems are polling the bin Laden tape. Posted at 10:50 PM I'LL TAKE HIS WORD FOR IT [Jonah Goldberg] Since I don't actually read Media Matters myself (a reader had notified me of that post) I confess to having no idea one way or the other. Until Tim Graham who, sadly, has to follow such things for a living tells me otherwise, I'll remain agnostic. Anyway, from a reader: Your reader (http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_10_24_corner-archive.asp#044018) is completely distorted on whether Media Matters covers just "conservative" outlets. Posted at 10:30 PM LIVE FROM ULSTER COUNTY [Rick Brookhiser] You know you live in a neighborhood with real Republicans when you see a lawn sign touting, not just Bush and Cheney, but Mills (Charles Schumer's hapless roadkill in the NY Senate race). It must be his mother's house. Posted at 10:13 PM I’M ABU MUSAB ZARQAWI AND I APPROVED THIS AD [Cliff May] A reader emails: Dear Mr. May, Eight Marines dead in a day, and the Bush camp is happy - happy - to see Osama in a video? "A little gift" is what the Bush campaign folks are saying. What the heck is going on with the GOP, when the taunts of a terrorist butcher - one that Bush has so far failed to kill - are seen as good for Bush's chances? Hope all's well in GOP-land, because it sure looks odd from the outside. Take care, [Name withheld]I’m afraid this is how many Americans think, and from this you can see why this is likely to be a close election. Saddam Hussein famously (infamously?) said: “Yours is a society which cannot accept 10,000 dead in one battle.” Saddam was wrong. Many Americans cannot accept 8 dead in one battle. And they’d have a point – if, by avoiding battles, we could at least have what Neville Chamberlain called “peace in our time.” But it would not mean that – anymore than sacrificing Czechoslovakia to Hitler meant avoiding World War II. How can people such as my correspondent not understand that Abu Musab Zarqawi, and those like him, will not be satisfied to defeat Americans only in Iraq. If they prevail there, they will move on to the next battleground. And the next. And the next. And don’t tell me it is because of the liberation of Iraq that Zarqawi is in Iraq. He was there long before the 101st Airborne arrived at Al Qaqaa. He was orchestrating terrorism against Americans from there. How can so many people believe there is any way we can make ourselves inoffensive to the Zarqawis and bin Ladens of the world? Or to the Saddam Husseins? Saddam, we know from the Duelfer report (but not from most of the reporting on it), was experimenting with ways to put sarin into perfume bottles and ricin into aerosol cans. He intended to reconstitute his WMD programs as soon as the coast was clear – and thanks to his corruption of the UN’s Food for Oil program, the French and others were helping to clear the coast for him. I don’t know who – if anyone – in the Bush campaign called bin Laden’s videotape “a little gift.” Whoever did, has been in the bubble too long, is too obsessed with the campaign and said something absolutely callous and condemnable. But the more important point is this: Bin Laden can make videotapes but since 9/11 he has been unable to make terrorism on American soil. His best surviving terrorists (e.g. Zarqawi) are in Iraq – because they know what it will mean if that country, once a training ground and safe haven for terrorists (see the Deulfer report) should become a decent place. That bin Laden has not been able to slaughter innocent American men and women here in the homeland, that he has lost Afghanistan which has now had its first free election ever, that he now must take on trained and tough U.S. Marines in Fallujah, amounts to a remarkable achievement. How discouraging that so many American can’t see that. How sad that so many Americans react exactly as bin Laden and Saddam would expect. How pathetic that when Americans are killed in battle other Americans direct their anger not at the killers but at an American president who refuses to surrender. One more point: We can’t discount the possibility of much worse than a battle in Iraq between tonight and Tuesday night. Bin Laden may have something planned and it could succeed. More innocent Americans may be killed – we hope and pray not, but it’s a real possibility. If that happens, it won’t be a gift to anyone but I would still make this argument: Vote for whichever candidate you believe will fight back most relentlessly and ruthlessly. Vote for whichever candidate has the will to win. Because the definition of defeat is indeed the loss of the will to fight. Posted at 10:06 PM LE MONDE A CHOISI [Cliff May] “Nous ont convaincus qu'une victoire de John Kerry était souhaitable.” Pour L'article Complet, Visitez Ici. Posted at 09:38 PM WALLACE CALLS IT FOR W? [KJL] A reader: "Mike Wallace (U of Michigan Grad) was at the UM/MSU football game this afternoon. Just before halftime, he was a guest in the radio booth. UM announcers asked him to predict the outcome of (i) the game (he correctly predicted UM -- winner in triple overtime) and (ii) the election (Wallace predicted Bush)." Posted at 09:35 PM HOW COOL IS THAT? [KJL] From Cap Gang tonight: even Margaret Carlson thinks Thune will beat Daschle. Posted at 08:07 PM AND THAT’S THE WAY IT IS [Cliff May] I grew up with Uncle Walter. If he says Karl Rove was behind the bin Laden video, it must be true. And I’ll bet Mark McKinnon did the filming himself. And they probably used a Halliburton jet to get him into Waziristan. Richard Perle and Doug Feith went along for the ride. And they all stopped in Riyadh on the way back for kabobs with their good buddy Prince Abdullah. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Posted at 07:38 PM MEMORY LANE [Cliff May] Remember when The New Republic had a major story quoting unnamed – but absolutely reliable – sources saying that Bush would capture bin Laden right before the election? The story suggested that Bush could have picked OBL up any old time but was waiting till the last minute so as to have maximum impact. I even went on Tavis Smiley’s radio show where my task was to disprove this story. Well, I guess there’s still time for the accusation to prove to be right. Here’s hoping Tavis will invite me – and the TNR writers -- back to chat about their story and their reliable sources, whatever happens. Posted at 07:35 PM MEMORY LANE [Cliff May] Remember when The New Republic had a major story quoting unnamed – but absolutely reliable – sources saying that Bush would capture bin Laden right before the election? The story suggested that Bush could have picked OBL up any old time but was waiting till the last minute so as to have maximum impact. I even went on Tavis Smiley’s radio show where my task was to disprove this story. Well, I guess there’s still time for the accusation to prove to be right. Here’s hoping Tavis will invite me – and the TNR writers -- back to chat about their story and their reliable sources, whatever happens. Posted at 07:35 PM MINNESOTA & MORE [KJL] A bunch of new posts are up at the Battlegrounders site, including some great photos from an underplayed packed event in Minneapolis today. Posted at 07:28 PM OHIO MO [KJL] Here’s Kevin Madden, from Bush-Cheney on the Ohio effort in a message sent out to Ohio media today: "Our turbo-charged grassroots organization is canvassing the entire state of Ohio, mobilizing supporters and reminding folks of President Bush's strong leadership. The momentum, the energy and the enthusiasm in Ohio are all working in President Bush's favor right now." Want specifics: check ‘em out, from a BC press release earlier today:
Posted at 07:15 PM STRANGER THAN FICTION? [Michael Graham] When I wrote my weekly column a few days ago, I wanted to write a series of parody spots by the various groups "endorsing" the candidacy of John Kerry and the defeat of President Bush. I thought of having Osama make a statement endorsing Kerry but rejected the idea as too unbelievable. Instead I had Arafat make the case that the only vote you could cast that would send terrorists celebrating in the streets Nov. 3rd is a vote for Kerry. For Osama to make that point would have been, I thought, over the top. It would have been both unfair to the Democrats and so outrageous it would have hurt the joke. Then came the actual Osama videotape and... Well, I'm not the first writer to note that the problem with parody is that it is frequently overtaken by reality. Posted at 06:43 PM THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS OFFICIAL OVER [Michael Graham] Whatever hope John Kerry had of closing the gap ended when Osama bin Laden became part of the national conversation about this election. As I've said a hundred times Kerry wins 10 states, plus Hawaii (maybe). So is it too early to consider the winners and losers in this election? And the big loser is NOT John Kerry. He was already a los.... No, seriously. He'll be back in the US Senate and in his 15th Century English farmhouse in Idaho (it's a long story) enjoying a quiet Christmas with his wife, his family and their contingent of servant. BR> No, the biggest loser in the 2004 election is the mainstream media. This has been the ugliest example of self-inflicted bloodshed since they passed around the Kool-Aid in French Guyana. BR> Dan Rather. CBS. 60 Minutes. The New York Times. Even Walter Cronkite (see below) has gone down with the ship. BR> The media's overtly partisan coverage and blatant attempts to affect the outcome of the election are beyond outrageous. They've reached the threshold of pathetic. Maybe I'm naive about journalists, maybe I hold them in too high a regard (my son, after all, is named "Mencken"). But the profession of journalism is rooted in reason and objective, reportable fact. When the press decides to abandon reason, to dismiss objectivity as a valued commodity, to even abandon the need for facts to be facts (remember "fake, but accurate?), then journalism as a profession is dead. BR> In service to as insignificant a Democrat as John Kerry, America's press corps has abandoned its principles so blatantly that they can never be recovered. We have re-entered the era of the "penny press," when media outlets were openly run as organs of various political or cultural interests. The day of the "professional" reporter is gone. BR> When I first started calling my local paper the "Washington Post-Democrat" on my radio show, the name was supposed to be a joke. Now, the joke is true and it's the reporting that's laughable. BR> My question to the MSM us, "Was it worth it?" Posted at 06:38 PM BUSH HAS THE MO [KJL] That's the GOP message tonight as they work to the ends of the continental U.S. and beyond--to Honolulu!! Bush/Cheney is confident this Saturday night. They believe these last days will prove they have made significant inroads throughout the U.S. at the grassroots level. Starting yesterday, 150,000 volunteers are working in the tightest states, contacting 18 million voters to get out the vote for W. They say they’ve registered 3.4 million more Republicans since the last presidential election. That those GOTVers are volunteers, too, they say is significant. In Florida alone—on Friday alone—GOP officials say volunteers knocked on 170,000 doors and made 200,000 calls. Though E Day they expect those numbers to hit 17,000 volunteers will 800,000 doors and 1.2 million calls. Just in Florida, a state where they’ve been confident for more than a few days now. But it’s not lackluster in Ohio either. GOP officials are saying 14,000 volunteers will knock on 400,000 doors and make 990,000 calls. Posted at 06:35 PM MY PREDICTIONS [Michael Graham] From the Michaelgraham.com in April: "Kerry wins 10 states. It ain't gonna be close." On C-SPAN last week I made it "Kerry wins 10 states, plus Hawaii (I kept missing it because it's always stuck in a corner on every map)". Electoral vote: 367 Bush, 171 Kerry. However, the popular vote is going to be tight. Bush maxes out at 51% by losing the popular vote overwhelmingly in NY, CA, IL, and MA and winning the swing states of FL, OH, PA and the rest of the Great Lakes region by a whisker. Will the Dems still litigate this election in close states if there's no chance of winning the White House? If it will undermine the president's ability to lead, and continue to feed Kerry's race-baiting myth that a million black voters were disenfranchised in 2000--absolutely. Posted at 05:48 PM GREAT SCOT [Andrew Stuttaford] In the years since the establishment of a Scottish parliament, developments in that country have filled me with more than customary gloom (I’m half Scottish), but if you want a break from election fever over here read – and relish - the comments of “Cartesian rationalist”, chemist and farmer, Jock Stewart: "Organic farming had, he told a conference, resulted in "weed infested middens" of farms and fields saturated with copper sulphate - poisonous, but the only control allowed against potato blight under organic rules.” Weed infested middens! The great man concluded as follows: "I have been fighting this fight for the last ten years and there are times when I despair. The creeping miasma of green drivel is everywhere." A wee dram (or three) of Laphroaig on me next time you are in New York, Mr. Stewart. Posted at 05:45 PM PREDICTIONS [KJL] Mark Levin actually filed his with me Thursday, and has been consistently confident on his radio show for months with these numbers: 52.5 Bush, 46.5 Kerry, and 276-300 electoral college. Posted at 04:48 PM FOX [Rich Lowry] FYI, I'm scheduled to be on 5:15 pm-ish. Posted at 04:45 PM RAMESH REMINDS [Kate O'Beirne] For my Senate prediction I put Louisiana aside until after possible run-off. I think that the GOP will pick it up. So my Senate prediction is up 4 with LA. Posted at 04:30 PM 100,000 DEAD? [Andrew Stuttaford] With an editorial stance has for a while been devoted to junk statistics and thuggery, the Lancet has long since ceased to be a publication that needs to be taken seriously. Numerous writers have successfully attacked the statistical bases of a Lancet article (obviously fast-tracked in an attempt to influence the US election) claiming that 100,000 Iraqi civilians had died in Iraq as a result of the invasion and subsequent fighting, and shown them to be nonsense. Time, I think, for the editor to do the honorable thing, follow Dan Rather’s example, and resign. Oh, Dan didn’t? Posted at 03:10 PM DECAPITATION IS NO LONGER ENOUGH [Andrew Stuttaford] The body of a Japanese hostage is discovered in Iraq: “Public broadcaster NHK, quoting government sources, said the body had two gunshot wounds to the back of the head. Kyodo News agency reported bruises and other signs of severe beating and torture.” Posted at 03:02 PM OH, AND THE POPULAR VOTE [Ramesh Ponnuru] I've predicted all year that Bush will win an absolute majority for the first time since his father did it in 1988. 51.5 percent. Posted at 02:58 PM PREDICTION TIME [Ramesh Ponnuru] I'm predicting that Bush wins 296-242 in the Electoral College (I'm assuming that a faithless WV elector counterbalances the Maine elector). In the Senate, I see a 4-seat pick-up: Republicans lose IL, pick up NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, SD, and hold either the AK or CO seat. I don't think KY is really in play. In the House, Republicans up 3. And the Republicans net one governorship. That's my call, and I'm sticking to it. Posted at 02:48 PM CRONKITE [Jonah Goldberg] Numerous readers who saw it say there's no chance he was joking. Shame on him. Posted at 02:31 PM BET PLACED [Kate O'Beirne] My predictions are due for Capital Gang and so here goes: President Bush wins with 297 electoral votes (only loses New Hampshire from 2000 total and picks up New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin - Maine 1 gives him 297). I predict a 3 seat pick-up for Republicans in the Senate. They sweep the seats in the south and unseat Daschle. Democrats win in Illinois and (maybe) Colorado. Republicans hold on in Oklahoma, Kentucky and Alaska. The GOP picks up 2 seats in the House. Posted at 01:42 PM THE ELECTRONIC MARKETS [Ramesh Ponnuru] A number of people have emailed me about the possibility that tradesports is being manipulated. I tend to think the markets will bounce back after any attempt to manipulate them. Anyway, fwiw, the markets are projecting a Bush win--and wins for Republican Senate candidates Burr, Coburn, DeMint, Martinez, Thune (!), and Vitter. Posted at 01:34 PM TOM RIDGE [KJL] is giving a press conference at 3. FNC says the alert level will not be raised. Posted at 01:31 PM MORE TALES OF THE TAPE [Jim Robbins] Stories circulated today that the new OBL video was much less bipartisan than at first believed, and that unedited versions of the tape included threats against the Bush family and several Cabinet members. This morning Al Jazeera posted what it claimed was a complete transcript of the video which apart from looking too short to be 18 minutes also had nothing that was not already aired. One interesting side note -- the text of the translation was based on the subtitles in the original video. The transcript does not include the final few sentences in which bin Laden mentions John Kerry. Nor does bin Laden anywhere mention Iraq. He does apparently say that this is the fourth year of the war, but everything else he says deals with the causes of the conflict. Is this a new tape or not? Posted at 01:25 PM CRONKITE IS RIGHT [Stanley Kurtz] Walter Cronkite is onto something. This whole bin Ladan thing helps Bush far too much for Rove not to have been behind it. But unlike Cronkite, I don’t think Rove directly set bin Laden up to make the tape. That’s just paranoid. Still, there is a way that Rove could have arranged all this. Think about it. Why haven’t we caught bin Laden? Time and again, we’ve claimed to be close. Isn’t is obvious that Rove has forced the president to lay off bin Laden? And who do you think had the Pentagon outsource Tora Bora to a bunch of Afghan warlords? Obviously, Rove. So Teresa had it backwards. The October surprise wasn’t that we’d caught bin Laden and were holding him to the last minute. The surprise was that Rove purposely let bin Laden go, knowing that his televised threats would assure Bush’s reelection. There’s only one thing that makes me doubt this scenario. The whole thing depends on the idea that the bin Laden tape helps the president. But The Washington Post (a news source every bit as eminent and unbiased as the great Walter Cronkite) says the bin Laden tape won’t help either candidate. Posted at 01:17 PM DID YOU SEE NEWSWEEK THIS MORNING? [KJL] President Bush is up 6 with likely voters, up 4 with registered voters. Poll story here. Posted at 12:28 PM SPEAKING OF BIAS, AGAIN [KJL ] Take a look at the apparent shenanigans surrounding the Univision interview. The written transript doesn’t have the abortion question. Posted at 12:23 PM “I AM AGAINST ABORTION” [KJL ] Does John Kerry have no shame? In an interview with Univision, a Spanish channel, John Kerry was asked, "Some sectors of the Catholic Church are concerned because you support abortion and therefore you would be going against its teachings.” He evidently responded: "I am against abortion." You know his record. I suggest you get it out there this weekend if you know people who don’t. This might help. Posted at 12:18 PM W. UP IN OHIO [KJL] Check Battlegrounders. Posted at 12:05 PM ROLL THE VIDEOTAPE [KJL ] Where is that Milwaukee interview? Not even the supposed GOP New Network, Fox is showing it, as best as I can tell. Again, make no mistake, Kerry’s first instinct was not what he said on the tarmac yesterday, which everyone is showing. It is what he said on that tv station, and that what he should be judged by on this. He’s running to be the president of the United States, the one who has to stare down these bad guys, afterall. There’s no second chances and retakes when your’e at war. And it’s not like he was a long ranger, while his campaign was being diplomatic. As you were reading in here all night, the surrogates were out and rabid on the Kerry first instinct. Bill Kristol and Steve Hayes have a useful wrap-up of Kerry camp (and KERRY) first reax. Posted at 12:03 PM SPEAKING OF WASHPOST BIAS [KJL] We have this, from Dana Milbank this morning: "As Bush and Kerry responded with dignified statements of unity against Osama bin Laden, the two campaigns struggled to game out their reactions, and to figure out how such a surreal event -- the feared, ghostly image returning to Americans' TV screens after a long absence -- would alter Tuesday's outcome....But in an election as close as this one is, even minor influences can have some impact. That concern was evident in the reaction to the tape's broadcast yesterday -- first an unusual silence, then hurried meetings and, finally, cautious statements. Kerry went first. 'Let me make it clear, crystal clear: As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists,' he said." NO. THAT IS NOT HOW IT HAPPENED. As noted in The Corner yesterday, John Kerry’s first instinct was not caution. It was political attack. And, a friend reading that piece comments: “Isn't it odd that Milbank's analysis concludes the tape will have little impact on the outcome? Watching the talking heads on cable last night, there was virtual unanimity that the tape -- and especially the very different reactions to it -- will help Bush.” So why would Milbank conclude otherwise, completely contrary to both conventional wisdom and political common sense? Oh, I don’t know, could it be that he knows that to hhave people believe that the tape is, but a nuisance aside, with little real-world consequences, would help Kerry. Oh, to think such a thing… But if the reactions weren't that different -- as Milbank would have us believe -- Kerry suffers less. Hmmmm. Could it be? No, no, how could I even think such a thing...? Posted at 11:56 AM SO SORRY [KJL] It's B-1 Bob not B-52, of course. Posted at 11:45 AM SILLY SPIN [Jonah Goldberg ] Josh Marshall posts the responses from both Bush and Kerry and asks "Which of these two statements sounds like it comes from the stronger leader?" This strikes me as almost deliberately lame. To the extent Kerry sounds "stronger" Marshall knows full well that he needs to sound stronger because the widespread perception is that Kerry is weaker. Kerry has had to talk tough precisely because he needs to compensate for the fact he's perceived as the weaker leader. I cannot imagine Marshall would ever credit this sort of argument if made in Bush's favor. For example, if I put a Kerry and Bush quote side-by-side and asked "Which of these sounds like it comes from the more compassionate leader?" he would unload nothing but ridicule. Posted at 11:42 AM RE: MEDIA MATTERS [Jonah Goldberg] Good point from a reader: Jonah, Posted at 11:30 AM HOW IS THE WASHINGTON POST BIAS? [Tim Graham] Let us count the ways the WashPost is trying to submerge its liberal panic. 1. On the OBL tape, an analysis: "Impact of Tape on Race is Uncertain." 2. Great new economic-growth numbers pushed to front page of Business, and they supposedly "provided fodder for both" Bush and Kerry. 3. Style section leaders with suckup to "a potentially powerful force -- black youth," touting the "civic-minded tycoon of fly, Russell Simmons, and former NAACP Chairman Benjamin Chavis." No mentions that Chavis is a whack job who got kicked out of the NAACP in a sex-harassment-payoff scandal. Posted at 11:24 AM THE RED ISLAND? [KJL] Hearing that the veep will be in Honolulu convention center a little before midnight tonight for his rally there. (If I were Laura, I'd be saying to W., this is our last campaign, and we couldn't his Hawaii just once?) bBeyond that, the veep schedule is focused on colorado and a few nevada stops. Posted at 11:18 AM TORA BORA BS [Andy McCarthy] I realize that Tommy Franks, who was there, is pretty effective rebuttal to the inane Dem talking points (from Kerry, Holbrooke, et al.) about how we supposedly had Bin Laden cornered in Tora Bora but let him get away because we were diverted by Iraq -- a total non-threat ... except of course for a few missing tons of HMX that are a galactic danger to mankind and that the "incredible incompetent," GWB, forgot to guard. But I really think contenting ourselves with the General Franks response misses a more important point. In August 1998, the embassies were bombed, killing 257 people. This was a coordinated military attack on sovereign American installations. President Clinton, whom Kerry would emulate (as he reminded everyone in Philadelphia this week), lobbed a few ineffectual cruise missiles on a single day. Big rocks were turned into smaller rocks, but there was no meaningful effort -- none, zilch, nada -- to hunt down and kill Bin Laden even though everyone in the administration acknowledged that al Qaeda was planning more attacks on the United States. In October 2000, the Cole was bombed, killing 17 American sailors -- a direct attack on the American military. It turns out, though, that by Cole standards, the embassy retalliation was robust. President Clinton did absolutely nothing -- not even cruise missiles -- to respond. Again, there was no Bin Laden manhunt and no disruption of al Qaeda's command structure at a time when everyone in the Clinton administration, and everyone on the Senate Intelligence Committee on which the Junior Senator from Massachusetts sat, knew that more attacks were being planned. Against that background, the Tora Bora BS is not only infuriating but insulting to the intelligence. How dare these people suggest that BUSH hasn't done enough to hunt down Bin Laden. This war didn't start on 9/11. These people had YEARS to try to grab this guy -- while everyone knew he was planning atrocities such as the one that occurred on 9/11 -- and they never even tried. They were too weak to confront the Taliban. They were too weak (and too dug in to their non-proliferation pieties) to conduct a wilfull carrot-and-stick dialogue with Musharaff to convince him that we were going after Bin Laden and Pakistan could either go along with us or suffer the consequences. They didn't have the nerve. President Clinton makes the vapid complaint that greatness eluded him because there was no great historical challenge to meet during his two terms. He could not be more wrong. Had he taken the embassy bombings as the call-to-arms that they were, had he used his unparalleled political and rhetorical skills to rally Americans to this great cause, we, as patriotic Americans, would have rallied around him, he'd have been remembered as a personally flawed but otherwise superb president, and we'd right now be grousing over next Tuesday's likely ushering in of the second Gore term -- although not that depressed because 9/11 would never have happened. President Bush has failed the minor detail of actually capturing Bin Laden, who must live every waking moment in fear of his life, after the major accomplishment of shredding al Qaeda's capacity to project force. The last time the Democrats had the wheel, neither Bin Laden nor al Qaeda's infrastructure was touched even though the Clinton administration knew exactly what they were trying to do. Did Senator Kerry ever convene a congressional hearing to probe why the Clinton administration was not using the Defense Department to hunt down and capture or kill Bin Laden? Did he ever demand answers for why the response to al Qaeda attacks in 1998 and 2000 was so pusillanimous? I must have missed those. The Kerry campaign has some nerve complaining about the failure to capture Bin Laden. Posted at 11:10 AM ANSWERS TO NICKNAMES RDXY AND HMXY [ Cliff May] In an interview, IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei denied trying to influence the U.S. presidential election. According to the Washington Post this morning, he said he raised the issue of the allegedly missing explosives with U.S. authorities “hoping they could help retrieve the explosives.” Yeah, that’s the ticket. He thought the Americans could help get the stuff back. U.S. authorities would never have thought of such an idea on their own. And how might they get the stuff back? Well, maybe some Marines could tape some signs on telephone polls saying: “Lost: 380 tons of HMX and RMX. Sentimental value. Reward for return. Call Moh, 212 555 1212.” Posted at 11:03 AM CRONKITE [Jonah Goldberg] Wow. If he was serious, he should stay out to pasture. But why on God's green earth did Larry King just let that sit there? There's no follow-up at all. If someone saw the interview and can let us know if Cronkite seemed to be joking, I'd love to hear it. Because if he was serious, he needs to explain himself or take on Pierre Salinger useless gasbag status. Posted at 10:58 AM ACTUALLY [KJL] Walter Cronkite believes Rove was behind the tape; this from Larry King last night: Cronkite: "I'm a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing." Posted at 10:41 AM "TO SEE OSAMA, LIKE A 527..." [KJL] B-52 Bob Dornan on MSNBC right now. Now you know it wasn't a Karl Rove plot, DUers! (I have no idea if they are saying that at the Democratic Underground, but got a few emails suggesting as much.) Posted at 10:22 AM WISCONSIN SURPRISE [John J. Miller] I'm skeptical about Republican Tim Michels beating Democratic senator Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate race, but a friend at the NRSC just sent me tracking numbers that show Feingold's lead slipping from 13 points to 5 points in four days: 10/26 -- Feingold 52 percent, Michels 39 percent 10/27 -- 51-41 10/28 -- 49-41 10/29 -- 48-43 Some Republicans have said all along that Wisconsin is their dark-horse race. Posted at 07:19 AM I HEAR [KJL] Zogby's latest will have Kerry up one nationwide, but Bush not doing bad in most battlegrounds, save for Florida (Florida where Bush internals are giving Bushies confidence). Posted at 12:24 AM BELMONT CLUB ON OBL TAPE [KJL] The American answer to Osama's proposal will be given on Election Day. One response is to agree that the United States of America will henceforth act like Sweden, which is on track to become majority Islamic sometime after the middle of this century. The electorate best knows which candidate will serve this end; which candidate most promises to be European-like in attitude and they can choose that path with both eyes open. The electorate can strike that bargain and Osama may keep his word. The other course is to reject Osama's terms utterly; to recognize the pleading in his outwardly belligerent manner and reply that his fugitive existence; the loss of his sanctuaries; the annihilation of his men are but the merest foretaste of what is yet to come: to say that to enemies such as he, the initials 'US' will always mean Unconditional Surrender.Read it all here. Posted at 12:19 AM WHERE THEY'LL BE [KJL] W. will be at rallies in: Grand Rapids, MI, Ashwaubenon, WI, Minneapolis, MN, and Orlando, FL, on Saturday, and Miami, FL, Tampa, FL, Gainesville, FL, and Cincinnati, OH, on Sunday. Posted at 12:16 AM Friday, October 29, 2004 RE: "WHATEVER IT TAKES" [KJL] A reader, who maybe right (I still have my reservations, noted earlier): "Just noticed your criticism of this ad, just after I saw it on TV. After 6 hours of thinking about Osama's tape, this ad was exactly what I needed to see. It will be a real help to Bush in the next two days." Posted at 11:10 PM MEDIA MATTERS & ME [Jonah Goldberg ] They whine that I took Kerry's quote about not being changed by 9/11 out of context. This is Brockian b.s. -- if that's not redundant. Read their write-up yourself. They seem to think the full quote exonerates Kerry. I don't think it does. Honestly I don't see it. In fact, I think it makes Kerry look like an enormous arrogant liar with bad judgement because he did next to nothing before 9/11 to make it remotely less likely, he said nothing of import about terrorism, warned against al Qaeda almost not at all, and defended Clinton's policies toward Bin Laden. Indeed, as a testament to my honesty about this I offer my Goldberg File from Monday in which I in fact quoted Kerry in the full context they demand of my syndicated column. For the record, the only reason I didn't quote Kerry in full was that I didn't have room in my syndicated column, which has a very strict word count. Indeed, before I used the full quote in the Goldberg File, it was posted in the Corner and discussed at length by several of us. No one here at NRO, as far as I know, thinks the full context is remote exculpatory and the partisans at Media Matters don't make any expert to argue how it would or could be. Posted at 10:32 PM SECTS, LIES, AND VIDEOTAPE [Andrew Apostolou, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies] In this latest video tape, Osama bin Laden repeats an old threat and tells a new lie. BIN LADEN’S THREAT TO KILL AMERICANS Bin Laden regards any American as a legitimate target, confirming that he is the ultimate, merciless terrorist. Today, bin Laden threatened Americans ahead of the November 2 elections stating that "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands." Bin Laden has made this threat before. Back in January 1999, bin Laden said that "any American who pays taxes to his government" is a target. In June 2002, al Qaeda spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith said that "We have the right to kill 4 million Americans - 2 million of them children - and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands. It is our right to fight them with chemical and biological weapons, so as to afflict them with the fatal maladies that have afflicted the Muslims because of the Americans' chemical and biological weapons." BIN LADEN’S 9/11 LIE Bin Laden insults Americans by attempting to blame the US government for the mass murder of 9/11. Bin Laden said today "It never occurred to us that the commander-in-chief of the country would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone ... because he thought listening to a child discussing her goats was more important." Bin Laden is a liar, there was no advance warning of the 9/11 attacks and the US government had little time in which to respond. Bin Laden has changed his position. Immediately after 9/11, bin Laden denied all responsibility for the terrorist attacks, stating in a September 28, 2001 interview with Ummat (a Pakistani newspaper) "I have already said that I am not involved in the 11 September attacks in the United States." Yet in an undated video captured in Afghanistan in December 2001, bin Laden gruesomely admitted responsibility stating that "we calculated in advance the number of casualties from the enemy, who would be killed based on the position of the tower. We calculated that the floors that would be hit would be three or four floors. I was the most optimistic of them all." Posted at 10:21 PM GETTING OBL [Mark R. Levin] It took seven years to find Eric Rudolph, despite a massive and rentless man hunt. He was found almost by accident--when a sharp patrolman spotted him digging through trash in North Carolina. We'll get Bin Laden, and everyone knows it. It's just a matter of time. Posted at 10:11 PM OBL TAPE [Rick Brookhiser] Sometimes simple points are the best. As Rich said, it will be good to get this man. My suggestion for disposing of his remains still stands: his jaw should hold a sanitary cookie in an enlisted men's latrine at Ft. Bragg. Posted at 10:06 PM SINGLE-ISSUE VOTING [Ramesh Ponnuru] Justin Katz takes issue with me. Posted at 09:44 PM RE: OSAMA ADMITS IT [Jonah Goldberg] A reader makes an excellent point: Quite right. And now, perhaps, Reuters will stop referring to Al Qaeda as the group the Bush administration "claims" is responsible for 9/11. But I won't hold my breath. Posted at 07:27 PM CONFESSIONAL [KJL] I gotta run and bake a birthday cake (no yellowcake! I have Meghan Gurdon's piece--see homey--in my head now). See you all in a bit. Posted at 07:25 PM THANK YOU [KJL] Bush-Cheney 2004 for doing the Arnold event "pumping [people] up" in the prime-time area. PEOPLE ARE WATCHING if they're the Friday homebody types. And I suspect the Friday homebody types are a lot of the voters you are looking to speak to these last days of the campaign. He's talking now, in Columbus Ohio, were he won the Mr. Universe contest...(surreal day today...) Posted at 07:21 PM "AMERICANS WILL NOT BE INTIMDATED" [KJL] HEre's a story Posted at 07:18 PM A TRANSLATION [KJL] Posted at 07:18 PM FIRST RESPONSE [KJL] Kerry's immediate reaction: he was being interviewed by a Milwaukee reporter: The story broke as WISN 12 News anchor Kathy Mykleby was waiting for a previously scheduled satellite interview with Kerry, who was in Florida. Posted at 07:13 PM KONDRACKE [Rich Lowry] Just said a Cleveland Plain-Dealer poll tomorrow will have Bush up in Ohio, 48-45 I think. Posted at 07:02 PM WHITE HOUSE REAX [KJL] Q Do you have a reaction to the Osama bin Laden tape? MR. McCLELLAN: First of all, our intelligence community has said that they believe it is authentic and that it was taped recently. The intelligence community continues to analyze the tape. If there is actionable intelligence, we will act on it. Q What does that mean? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, that they continue to analyze the tape. If there is any actionable intelligence that they determine from the tape, then they will act on it. We are doing everything we can to prevail in the war on terrorism and defeat the ideology of hatred that bin Laden articulates in this tape. Q When you refer to "actionable intelligence," are you talking about clues that might be imbedded on the tape; is that what you're saying? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I said if there is any. That's why I said our intelligence community continues to analyze the tape. If there is any actionable intelligence then we will act on it. Q Threat level? Are you looking at raising the threat level before the election? MR. McCLELLAN: That is something that we analyze all the time. We are on a heightened state of awareness already, and there is no change in it at this time. But it's something that we analyze all the time. Q Does the President take this as an effort to influence this election? MR. McCLELLAN: I'll leave the political analysis to others. Q Does he see this, though, as some -- as Osama speaking directly to him, or trying to insert him in his -- MR. McCLELLAN: You're asking me to get into the political analysis and as I said, I think I'll leave that to others. Q Well, stepping back as a matter -- not just about the President, but to try to influence the American political process -- MR. McCLELLAN: We look at it as that we will continue to act -- the law enforcement community, the intelligence community, our homeland security officials -- to make sure we are doing everything we can to disrupt and prevent attacks from happening. Our military will remain on the offensive to prevail in the war on terrorism, and that's where our focus is. Q Was the President -- when was the President notified of the tape? What was his immediate reaction? MR. McCLELLAN: Late this morning. Dr. Rice was in touch with officials back at the White House, including Fran Townsend, our Homeland Security Advisor. And she informed the President shortly after that, aboard the plane. Q Flying from where -- MR. McCLELLAN: I'll check the schedule. Q First flight? MR. McCLELLAN: It was late this morning, probably shortly before noon. Q Did the President have a reaction -- MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I'm giving you the -- Q -- to Dr. Rice? MR. McCLELLAN: Oh, I'm sorry. Q Did the President have a reaction when he heard about the tape? MR. McCLELLAN: The reaction is what I gave you, from the White House. Q So you guys are taking this seriously, obviously -- you're not blowing it off, or anything? And for the political part of it, you don't want to comment on -- MR. McCLELLAN: I'll leave that to others. I'll talk about what we're doing. All Americans are united in our strength and resolve to defeat the ideology of hatred that bin Laden articulates in this tape. Q Are we going to hear him talk about this, or address this tape at all? MR. McCLELLAN: Well, I'm speaking for him now, giving you the White House reaction. Obviously, you will be there to cover him. At this point, you have comment from me…. Posted at 06:56 PM TORA BORA [KJL] Readers telling me Holbrooke was on the same talking points--should have closed the OBL door at Tora Bora--on CNN. Posted at 06:46 PM ANOTHER CRASS POLITICAL POINT [KJL] I'll be curious to see the NJ numbers tomorrow and Sunday, after this release. Pa., to some extent, too. Posted at 06:43 PM KERRY'S ABORTION "CENTRISM" [Ramesh Ponnuru] Sullivan also writes, "Kerry on Abortion: A closet centrist? Steve Waldman thinks so." Hold on to that question mark, Andrew. Waldman's article is about Kerry's support for Tom Daschle's alternative to the partial-birth abortion ban: a ban on post-viability abortions except when they would threaten the mother's health. (Now would be a good time to mention that the last time I wrote about this bill, I got it slightly wrong: Here's a critique of what I wrote then; the third paragraph of that critique is right, although I don't accept the rest of it.) Here are a few problems with the bill and the idea that it makes Kerry an abortion centrist: 1) It only applies before "viability," thus leaving most partial-birth abortions untouched. 2) Under the bill, post-viability abortions would be allowed if "the continuation of the pregnancy would threaten the mother's life or risk grievous injury to her physical health." The words "grievous" and "physical health" make this sound like a tight restriction. It's not, because there are no adverbs attached to "threaten" and "risk": Any degree of risk nullifies the law, and an abortionist will always be able to say that there's some risk. Dr. Warren Hern, a major practitioner of partial-birth abortion, said at the time, "I will certify that any pregnancy is a threat to a woman's life and could cause grievous injury to her physical health." Waldman doesn't address this point: He thinks the pro-life objection to the bill is that abortionists will stretch the definition of "grievous injury." They wouldn't have to do that, because, again, any risk opens the loophole. 3) Kerry has also voted for other substitutes to the partial-birth ban--including ones that created an exception for mental health, which almost everyone understands would make a ban unenforceable. 4) But let's say the law had teeth, and would ban some abortions. The Supreme Court's abortion jurisprudence, which Kerry supports so strongly that he pledges to appoint no justices who will go back on it, pretty clearly means that the law would have to go. Declaring your support for laws and then declaring that you'll appoint Supreme Court justices who will invalidate them doesn't strike me as centrist. It's more like trying to have it both ways. Posted at 06:43 PM FIGHTING THE LAST WAR [John Hillen] Gerraldine Ferraro was on Fox debating Bob Livingston a little while ago about the OBL tape and she avoids the question and goes on a 3 minute diatribe about the Labor Dept. not enforcing sexual harassment laws in the workplace. The host was looking at her like she had three heads. Posted at 06:38 PM BELGRAVIA DISPATCH [Cliff May] Gregory Djerejian of comprehensively dissects The New York Times’ coverage of the “missing” explosives. Hat tip: the always intriguing Roger L. Simon Posted at 06:36 PM DICK MORRIS SAYS... [John Hillen] On Fox, my fellow NR post-election cruise speaker Dick Morris says just outlined very cogently the five or six ways the OUBL tape helps the President. Says there is “no way” there is any good in this for Kerry. Posted at 06:33 PM CARL CAMERON [Rich Lowry] Says right now that in an interview with a Wisconsin station Kerry almost immediately talked about Tora Bora in reacting to the bin Laden tape. Posted at 06:33 PM UH, (LEFTY) FOLKS [Jonah Goldberg] I have to confess, out of intellectual honesty or pessimism or whatever, I was quietly still pondering the possibility that Osama intended this tape to help Bush. I didn't think it was true, but I was still giving it the benefit of the doubt. Then I read the rough and dirty transcript on Drudge. You people are high. This is not a man who understands America. Sorry. Posted at 06:31 PM OBL TAPE [John Hillen] Our names are similar, our thoughts are similar…I agree with John Hood below. To the extent that explicitly (we need to see the whole tape transcript to suss that out) or implicitly (voter perception) Bin Laden comes across as yet another FLK (Foreign Leader for Kerry), it really hurts the Kerry campaign. To the extent it reminds people that we have not yet gotten the murderous thug, that could hurt Bush – but I’m not sure what voter if any gets a Saul-on-the-road-to-Damascus moment about that from the new tape. And in any case, it’s pretty well established that not many folks think Kerry would be better at getting the guy. That’s why I could never understand why Kerry choose to run as a veteran. Doesn’t matter to his core and among the security-minded swing voters they end up trusting Bush/Cheney on toughness and security anyway. Posted at 06:31 PM OSAMA ON THE PATRIOT ACT, FLORIDA ETC [Jonah Goldberg] I thought people were joking a bit about the Michael Moore similarities. But:
Posted at 06:25 PM SPEAKING OF ENDORSEMENTS [Ramesh Ponnuru] Let me put my belated two cents in on Sullivan's endorsement of Kerry (I found the Galt link at his site). I am not persuaded by the argument that the responsibility of governing would force Kerry and his party to be aggressive and smart in fighting terrorism, for the reasons that other commentators have mentioned; and I think the "hawkish case for Kerry" in general depends on ignoring not only his record and his base but some of his comments from this year. (I think Kerry's occasional remarks during this campaign about not having changed on 9/11 and our needing to go back to the status quo ante were revealing, and alarming.) At the same time, the underlying impulse to get the Democrats to "buy in" to the war is right. But I think that the better way to do that may be to defeat them in 2004, in the hope that they nominate someone more hawkish in 2008. Second: A number of critics have raised the question whether Sullivan is being a "one-issue voter," who is letting his strong opposition to the FMA determine his positions on other issues. He denies it. Perhaps the same-sex marriage debate has colored his view of Bush and Kerry: Can any of us really say with 100 percent confidence why we believe all the things we do? To be Breyer-like for a moment: I can't say with 100 percent confidence that I wouldn't cut Kerry more slack in other areas if he were pro-life. I'd like to think it wouldn't affect my judgment about his foreign policy, but who knows? All we can do is try to make sure that our arguments are sound. One more thing: People are a little too dismissive of "single issue voters." I'm not such a voter myself. But if you believe that same-sex marriage is a matter of fundamental human rights and that the denial thereof is discrimination, you pretty much have to believe that the FMA would write discrimination into the Constitution and perhaps even that it's an assault on the human dignity of gay people. And if you believe those things, is it so terrible to give the issue a lot of weight in making a decision about the election? If a candidate were running on a platform of banning interracial marriage--which Sullivan considers an analogous issue--we wouldn't scoff at someone who said, "I'm voting against this guy, and I don't care what he has to say about taxes or missile defense." Not to say that Sullivan is right in all these things, just that the single-issue accusation doesn't strike me as all that damning. If anything, Sullivan may be too defensive about it. Posted at 06:19 PM THE JEWS, PART 989,097,092B [Jonah Goldberg] Folks - I don't mean this to be a "Is it good for the Jews" moment. But, the Osama tape is good for the Jews. I know that 99.98% of the people who read the Corner -- liberals, leftists and conservatives alike -- understand that "the Jews" or Israel had nothing to do with 9/11. But that doesn't mean there aren't hundreds of millions of people around the world who think otherwise including, alas, more than a few Americans. I hear from them quite often. Osama Bin Laden confessed (again) today on that tape. It's not talking point number one. But it's worth noting. Posted at 06:17 PM A LIBERTARIAN FOR W. [Ramesh Ponnuru] Posted at 06:00 PM FYI [KJL] Check in The Corner, Kerry Spot, Battlegrounders & homepage all weekend. We'll be active. Posted at 06:00 PM POTENTIAL PROBLEMS [Ramesh Ponnuru] I wasn't sure what to make of Rick Weiss's report in the Washington Post about a new study calling Bush's stem-cell policy into question. "All of the human embryonic stem cells available to federally funded scientists under President Bush's three-year-old research policy share a previously unrecognized trait that fosters rejection by the immune systems, diminishing their potential as medical treatments, new research indicates," writes Weiss. I asked a close observer of the debate, who supports the president's policy, what he made of it. His response: "It's very hard to say, since the study has not been published, and the results have quickly been rushed out before the election. The article didn't give us enough to go on, and no one has seen the study itself. "A few points, though, about what the article did say. It said: 'The first study, led by Fred Gage of the Salk Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and Ajit Varki of the University of California at San Diego, focused on a peculiar aspect of the federally approved cell lines: Unlike colonies being derived using newer techniques, all the Bush-approved colonies were initially cultivated in laboratory dishes that also contained mouse cells.' "This is not correct. Sixteen lines approved for funding under the president's policy were not developed with mouse feeder cells. They have not been developed past the earliest stages at all, but have been frozen, awaiting the development of a reliable technique that does not rely on mouse cells. Moreover, the vast majority of ESC lines developed after the August 9th cutoff have also been developed with mouse feeder cells (including the recently publicized Harvard cells, and most others) and so are subject to the same findings, if the study in question is correct. As the article does note, the FDA has in the past approved cell products (not stem cell products, but others) that have been developed with mouse feeder cells, and these have been used successfully, so it's not clear to me what the study is suggesting, but again, I haven't seen the study. "The second study, as the article itself put it, is still ongoing. This is clearly just a rush to publicize before the election--not exactly standard scientific practice. Hard to judge, therefore, but what little details are offered here don't, in themselves, quite add up." Posted at 05:47 PM MSNBC: [Rich Lowry] Bush administration says tape is authentic. Posted at 05:42 PM MY WIFE'S REACTION [Jonah Goldberg] She hadn't heard about the Osama video until just now. I told her about it fairly neutrally because I wanted her honest reaction (the Fair Jessica's political resume is long and superb). So after I told her about it, her first informational follow-up question was: "Are you sure it wasn't Ed Gillespie in a beard?" Needless to say, she doesn't buy the pro-Kerry Osama's reverse psychology spin. Posted at 05:42 PM OH AND FOR THE RECORD [Jonah Goldberg] If Bin Laden's aim is to get Bush elected, that doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong to vote for Bush. I truly don't mean this in the partisan way it sounds. It's just that, going back to 9/11, one of my biggest peeves has been the argument that doing This or That is "exactly what Bin Laden wants us to do." Opponents of the war in Afghanistan said it. Opponents of bombing during Ramadan said it. Etc. It is possible, you know, for Osama Bin Laden to be wrong about what would be good for his cause. If he wanted a war in Afghanistan he was stupid because he got one and he lost it and now women are voting there and the one-eyed cleric is is twirling his propellor beanie in a dank cave. It is a strange glitch in human logic to always assume that the laws of unintended consequences only apply to your side and not to your enemies. History is full of losers who got exactly what they wanted. Posted at 05:36 PM BOB SMITH, [Ramesh Ponnuru] the erratic former Republican senator, who lost the New Hampshire primary in 2002, has endorsed Kerry. Of course, since he left the GOP and then came back to it to get a committee chairmanship, he may not really count as a "Republican for Kerry." Posted at 05:28 PM BIN LADEN DID THINK THIS THROUGH? [KJL] Here's another e-mailer's thought: K-Lo Posted at 05:22 PM "OSAMA WANTS BUSH TO WIN" [Jonah Goldberg] One of my more enduring lefty email critics, but an altogether decent guy, writes me to say that NRO is "taking the bait." And that in reality Osama is taunting the American people because he knows that will get a rise out of us and, thus, Osama really wants Bush to win (as John Hillen mentions below). I think this is an interesting interpretation and since this guy is something of a canary in the coalmine for lefty arguments, it's worth considering or at least anticipating. First, I don't buy it. The one thing we've known about Osama for a very long time is that he doesn't understand American politics. He honestly thought -- as far as we can tell -- that America would fold from the 9/11 attacks. He constantly talked about our glass chin and how we were the weaker superpower viz a viz the Soviet Union. The constant refusal of American to treat terrorism as anything other than the "nuisance" John Kerry preferred is what emboldened those guys further (that, alas, includes Reagan's decision to bug out of Beirut). The tragically regular successes terrorists have enjoyed in recent years when it comes to changing Western policy are probably what he has in mind. The tragic decision of Spain to elect an antiwar party and withdraw from Iraq being the biggest and best example. But the kidnappings which chased the Phillipines out of the coalition, the bribes paid by countless coalition partners, etc all have probably reinforced Osama's views. I find it hard to believe that Osama's goal here is throw the election to the guy he considers a deranged Christian crusader. What Osama needs now is not a reinvigorated, ratified war on terror from Bush and Cheney, what he needs is a time out to reinforce, regroup etc. It might be unfair to Kerry (though I doubt it), but he almost surely thinks he gets a time out from Kerry not from Bush. Moreover, if what we hear is true, Osama's been in a cave somewhere which would incline him toward, literally, a bunker mentality. Posted at 05:19 PM 50% THRESHOLD [Rich Lowry] ABC/Wash Post, Fox, Battleground, and Rasmussen all have Bush at or above the 50% threshold. Posted at 05:16 PM I HAVE SMART READERS TOO [KJL] Here's one: He may be a great military guy, but with all due respect, he has a tin political ear.Fox's new poll has a category"who will protect my family"--Bush crushes Kerry on that. Now Osama reappears and reminds everyone to thank God that W is at the helm.No way does this help Kerry. Posted at 05:12 PM CALLING MICHAEL LEDEEN! [KJL] A reader points out that Farenheit 9/11 was playing in Iran...(of course, it's on DVD, too)... Posted at 05:11 PM REWINDING: JONAH, [KJL] who was that guy on CNN with you who said the tape ABC got looked like it was starring his pizza delivery guy? Posted at 05:08 PM OSAMA [Jonah Goldberg] I just got back from CNN and I haven't seen the interview and only a few items from the transcript. Still this kind of reminds me of the old joke from SNL News which went something like this "And today 'Siskel and Ebert" officially changed its name to 'The fat guy and the other one.'" No matter how you slice this, George W. Bush is the man Osama's worried about and Kerry's "the other one." I know it's not like Osama endorsed Kerry, but short of saying "You, the one who agrees with me about so much, you say you will 'destroy us'; well, we laugh at your summits!" I don't think it's obvious the tape will play this way politically, but I see nothing wrong with the Bush campaign trying to make that happen. Again: no matter how you slice it or how unfair it might be to Kerry, a vote against Bush will be seen as a repudiation of everything Bush stands for around the world. That's why the PLO has basically endorsed Kerry. That's why the Guardian is desperate that Kerry win. That's why El Baradai and his friends at the New York Times want Kerry to win. That's why Michael Moore is such a loyal Democrat all of a sudden. And that's why al Qaeda wants Bush to lose. This doesn't automatically mean by any stretch of the imagination that Kerry voters are pro-al Qaeda, anti-American, wimps or any of the rest. It does mean, in my humble opinion, that they're wrong. Posted at 05:05 PM WASHPOST TRACKING: BUSH UP 3 [KJL] Here Posted at 05:02 PM GUT-LEVEL REACTION TO THE OBL TAPE [John Hood] Kerry will argue that this reinforces the mistakes made at Tora Bora. His media surrogates will reinforce that and play reverse-psychology games: OBL really did this because he wants Bush to be reelected, because that’s good for recruitment, because Iraq is a quagmire, etc. And none of this will fly. If voters go into the booth on Tuesday with the desire to fry Islamofascist thugs, they will rehire Bush as chef. Swing voters in Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest will react viscerally to this. They won’t buy reverse-psych mumbo-jumbo. The release will overshadow the lower-than-estimated growth rate in the 3rd quarter, an announcement earlier today that Kerry and Edwards could have used to some effect in places such as Ohio during the coming news cycle. Instead, the tape shifts the attention back to the president’s strongest issue. Yes, the Tora Bora mythology gets trotted out again, but Bush surrogates are more credible on the issue (especially including Franks). Bottom line: if swing voters are seeing bin Laden’s face, they are thinking, “go sock him, Mr. President!” They are not thinking about Halliburton or the GDP. Posted at 05:01 PM A NIGHTMARE FOR KERRY [Andy McCarthy] Kathryn, you are so right about this -- a nightmare for Kerry. But don't think that's how bin Laden sees it -- and that goes to something we've all been talking about recently, which is the mindset of these jihadists. Bin Laden probably thinks he is hurting Bush because he (Osama) is a megalo-maniac. He thinks that the mere rearing of his fearsome head saying a few threatening things might cause America to quake and try to appease him by ousting Bush. It worked in Madrid, he thinks, why not in the U.S? Bin Laden's egotism has overwhelmed his powers of analysis. He should long ago have figured out -- from the simple fact that he must remain in constant hiding -- that America ain't Spain. You knock down our buildings, and we don't change governments; we come over and kick your a**. One down side of all this, though. A lot of folks out there assume that Bin Laden is a master tactician, and that he wouldn't attack us if he could right before the election because he knows that would help Bush. This tape, assuming it is authentic and recent, shows the folly of that view. Bin Laden would undoubtedly think an attack would hurt Bush, just as he thinks a taped threat helps Bush. He would order one if he were in a position to do so. I suppose it's possible that he may think Kerry is going to win so he rushed a tape out there now so he'd be in a position to take credit next week. But I really don't think he cares that much. He would hate and look to kill us just as much if Kerry were elected. What is stopping al Qaeda right now is capability, not calculation, and that's the best reason for re-electing the president. Posted at 05:00 PM BUT, YES, BEGALA IS TAKING [Rich Lowry] ...the dumber “you should have caught him already” tack. Posted at 04:56 PM JAIMIE RUBIN [Rich Lowry] On MSNBC right now: Kerry's reaction has always been to such tapes--“we are united in our determination to defeat you.” Kerry will “use every means at his disposal” to fight al Qaeda. The obvious thing to say. Posted at 04:52 PM RICH'S "READERS" [KJL] are briliant. Posted at 04:51 PM RE: RICH'S DOUBT [KJL] Kerry won't fumble (how did Bush let him go?--Begala is taking that line now), but Americans will be livid at his politicking against Bush and choose to stick with the guy who freed Afghanistan and made it so al Qaeda released a tape before our election because they couldn't attack us (See Gerry Daly's thoughts.) Posted at 04:48 PM DON'T FORGET [Cliff May] That's exactly right--releasing a video tape on the eve of an American presidential election would not be OBL’s first choice. OBL’s first choice would be to have America’s streets running with blood today, tomorrow and through the weekend. On the one hand, that means intelligence and homeland security need to be on highest alert right now. On the other hand, if al Qaeda can’t stage an attack on American soil at this point, that strongly suggests that its abilities have indeed been seriously weakened over the past 3 years (other than in Iraq, where Zarqawi and his forces are making a last stand in Fallujah).. Posted at 04:48 PM HMMM [Rich Lowry] E-mail: “Is this what Kerry meant when he said that he had world `leaders’ who wanted him in office?” Posted at 04:47 PM I DOUBT... [Rich Lowry] ...the Kerry people will fumble their reaction to this, since the correct response is so obvious--to denounce this naked effort to influence the elections by a mass murderer. Posted at 04:43 PM KERRY CHALLENGE [Shannen Coffin] It will be interesting to listen to Kerry this weekend. He's going to have to be careful to avoid using similar language to that of OBL on this tape. What a great campaign ad it would be to put the two side by side comparing their language. Before I get le deluge from Kerryites, I'm not saying he is OBL. I'm simply saying he's got a minefield to navigate with his stump speech this weekend, in light of OBL's Fahrenheit 911 speech. Posted at 04:42 PM CRASS POINT [KJL] The Wolves ad is the one to run this weekend. Posted at 04:41 PM ONE WAG SAYS: [Rich Lowry] “Maybe bin Laden didn't explicitly endorse Kerry, but he has to be careful to stay within the bounds of McCain-Feingold.” Posted at 04:38 PM AN OBVIOUS THOUGHT [Rich Lowry] It will be very, very satisfying when we get this bastard, which we will sooner or later. Posted at 04:36 PM MISCALCULATION [Shannen W. Coffin] Osama is alive. We all knew that. He endorses Kerry. Well, maybe not directly, but you get the point. Bin Laden miscalculated terribly when he thought that his attack of the Twin Towers and Pentagon would break American resolve. And he's miscalculating again if he thinks that he can bring about the defeat of George Bush by appearing on the eve of the election. Terrorist mastermind, perhaps. Political genius, I think not. Posted at 04:32 PM “BUSH CANNOT PROTECT YOU.” [KJL] That will rile people up, plain and simple. That bastard is not going to decide our election. I think that is the normal American reaction. Posted at 04:31 PM WHAT NEXT? [Rich Lowry] Is he going to complain that Bush “outsourced” the effort to get him at Tora Bora? Posted at 04:29 PM BIN LADEN IS APPARENTLY CHANNELING MICHAEL MOORE [Rich Lowry] Posted at 04:25 PM MORE OSAMA [KJL] Getting this from CNN: Bush prefered to read a children's book than worry about the people dying. Sure I'm not watching Farenheit 911? He says America had to be punished, but he did not plan for the towers to fall. And he wanted to get Bush's attention, but, again, Bush was reading a kid's book while it was going on. Posted at 04:21 PM IF WHAT I'M READING... [Rich Lowry] ...on the bottom of the screen is right, bin Laden is taking the Richard Clarke line--Bush could have done more to stop the Sept. 11 attacks. Posted at 04:20 PM MORE TAPE [KJL] He evidently says: 9/11 could have been a lot less severe had the president been alert. He's got the talking points. Posted at 04:19 PM HUH...MAYBE....? (MAYBE NOT) [KJL] This, from Jonah's military guy (which Alan Colmes is echoing): ... I dunno if it's Kerry's nightmare, K-Lo, or the Prez's. If authenticated, it lends (false to me, but I already voted anyway) credence to the line of attack that Iraq was a diversion, and the Tora Bora was the President's personal failure.Of course, Military Guy might just be watching too much Alan Colmes... Posted at 04:17 PM MARTY PERETZ TOUGH ON KERRY AGAIN [KJL] Weird The New Republic endorses Kerry with him saying the likes of this. Posted at 04:13 PM "PRESIDENT FORD: [Ramesh Ponnuru] He's making us proud again." And other political ads. Posted at 04:11 PM RE: OSAMA TAPE [KJL] Fox starting to replay some translations of the tape (MSNBC was at commercial and CNN on chads last I flipped): “The Bush administration resembles corrupt Arab governments.” This has got to bea John Kerry nightmare, Osama reminding people of 9/11 (attention off Iraq) and blasting Bush. CNN VS. FOX: One of the first reax I heard on FNC was: Kerry has got to find a way to look like he doesn't agree with Osama. On CNN: White house is in defense. Posted at 04:10 PM OSAMA TAPE [KJL] Fox is reporting that intel officials are saying it looks authentic. From the flash CNN and Fox have shown he looks older and frail, which is what one would imagine he'd look like if he were alive. Posted at 04:05 PM JOHN DOLE KERRY [KJL] John Podhoretz reminds me. What recent loser presidential candidate said "Wake Up, America"? Bob Dole. Posted at 03:58 PM RE: WHATEVER IT TAKES [KJL] I have a few e-mails like this, so it's very possible I've watched too many campaign commercials: For what It’s worth, I find this one of the President’s most compelling ads. To me it summarizes his Presidency in a very poignant and memorable way. It explains his rationale for the war in Iraq, his willingness to make the tough decisions to protect the country, his belief in the American people and his gratitude to the men and women in the armed forces for their sacrifices on behalf of us all. The ad shows how deeply he cares about those that have been killed and injured, as well as their families. You see his face as he holds back the tears the depths of his feelings and you feel his genuine emotions. He goes on to tell us, that as painful as some decisions are, he is willing, well, to do wherever it takes to win the war on terror. I cried during that part of the President’s speech while watching the convention and I cry every time I see the ad. This may sound corny but, it reminds me of why I love George W. Bush and why I’m proud to say he is my President. Finally it’s a stark contrast to Kerry. Posted at 03:57 PM SUMMITRY [John J. Miller] Where does one actually hold a "rural summit"? In a cornfield? A cow pasture? Certainly not in a city. Posted at 03:56 PM NO APPLAUSE? [Rich Lowry] An e-mail: "I just wanted to add my little scrap to the growing collection of indications that support for the Democratic candidate is soft as a grape. Last night, on THE LATE, LATE SHOW on CBS, one of the guests interviewed was a young actress from THE O.C. At one point, she spoke about the election and her support for “John Kerry--yeah!!” I’d say about four people in the studio audience clapped. She looked round bemusedly and said, “No applause... for John Kerry...?” shrugged, and moved on. This, in the heart of Los Angeles. Naturally, though, a) you don’t have to applaud for JK to vote against the president, and b) the audience may have been composed entirely of a tour group from Alabama. Still a lovely moment, though..." Posted at 03:54 PM EARLY INDICATORS... [Rich Lowry] ...one informed observer will watch for on election night: 1) Kerry's New Jersey margin. If it's close, he's probably going to have a tough night elsewhere; 2) The New Hampshire result. Bush could still win there. If he does, he's running strong. Posted at 03:49 PM ANOTHER ONE! [Rich Lowry] Kerry the other da | ||||||