If Thune and Bush win (!) – a bottle of Chianti of your choice to you and a subscription to NRODT for me and NROD as a gift to any deserving soul (again of your choice) from me.

It’s all that branch water talking…

KJL, The stem cell initiative may well be the most wildly misunderstood piece of legislation in American history. I work in Hollywood (roughly the same job as Rob Long) and everyone I work with was wildly supportive of the measure, and no one actually knew what the measure did. They didn't know how much money would be raised, who would get it, and how it would be repaid. But somehow the mighty stem cell became the thing you had to support if you're enlightened.

Things are looking very good in Ohio. With the exception of a few Appalachian counties, we’re running significantly ahead of where we were four years ago. For example, we lost Columbus County by 5,000 in 2000; we’re now ahead by 15,000. We’re also ahead by a couple of hundred votes in New Hampshire – and the worst parts of that state (for us) have already been counted. So we’re confident about both states.

25. The thought of looking at AWOL and his regime

Edited on Tue Nov-02-04 11:00 PM by JPace continue their dismantling of our country for another four years is so abhorant it makes one feel ill. Its like trying to kill a damed vampire....we shoot and shoot and the thing just keeps rising up and coming at you again.

Good day for Tom DeLay, as he will take out the top 5 D’s on his hit list. The diciest race for Republicans was CD 17, where incumbent Chet Edwards was perceived as having the edge over state Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth. However, Wohlgemuth leads the early vote by 2 points, with one smaller county from her state House district yet to report. The latest numbers show Edwards with a lead of nearly 1 point, but the only election-day vote to be counted is in the Waco sphere of influence. If Wohlgemuth gets any additional advantage out of Bryan/College Station today, she will likely win. Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charles Stenholm, and Martin Frost are all being blown out.

Down ballot also looks positive for Republicans. Despite Democrats’ efforts to wrap the DeLay-machine indictments around every Republican legislator’s neck, the GOP will gain seats in the Texas House and likely top the 90-seat threshold.

checked out the demounderground after your post, love this post from there "I turned off my cell after my husband called me freaking, he works nights. You would think since ALL of us know that the media is slanted to the right that they would do the same for the election."

KLO - Have been up since 0300 local watching the returns via the Internet. The Internet cafe's here are full of soldiers interested in the outcome. The mood is electric.

I just saw the e-mail you posted from another Pennsylvania voter regarding the Specter/Hoeffel race and I wanted to add one more strike against he incumbent. Yesteday the local NPR station was running a piece on him, and he defended himself against the charge that he votes overwhelmingly with the president by claiming that his voting record matches John Kerry's somewhere between 70-80% of the time.

This is the republican that Dubya spent political capital defending in the primary? I don't feel even a little bit bad about not voting for him. We'll be better off without him as the chair of the Judiciary Committee, and if the GOP can't make up the lost seat elsewhere in the country it's their own fault for throwing him in the face of their conservative base in Pennsylvania.

Right now, Florida, Ohio and New Jersey are all at 52-47% - so how come they called NJ immediately - and still haven't called these others? (More of theFlorida vote is in than NJ which is merely 80% in now).

I saw your post on Battlegrounders about the Hoeffel/Specter race. The only Republican I didn't vote for was Specter. I had been going back and forth about whether to vote for him, but the last straw was his pro-stem cell research ad with Michael J. Fox. The issue ranks fairly low for me, but given that the Democrats had been attacking Bush on it and the ad ends with "Arlen Specter (emphasis mine) gets it" it was the last straw (along with the reports of the Specter-Kerry signs). Particularly given that I had thought he was far ahead in the polls, and the ad would only hurt Bush.

I even told a friend from Taiwan about voting for Hoeffel, saying something along the lines "it doesn't matter since Specter's up by 10 or 20 points". Oh well, but then again it might actually be easier to get the judges through without Specter as the chair of the Judiciary Committee (assuming that we pick up several seats in the Senate).

The huge margins for Kerry in the exit polling led the Dems to call off the lawyers (I've heard Lockhart and Estrich say so on FNC). They say the system worked, so no need to sue.

Now that it looks like Bush is doing MUCH better than the exit polls, the Dems are caught flat-footed.

A Rovian strategy?

I’ve learned something about conservative commentators: You all are a bunch of nervous Nellies. Everything looks as though the glass is half empty when you should be saying it is half full.

I was a Democrat for a large part of my life then switched to Republican in 1980. I think you act as though the new found majority in the House and Senate is going to slip from your grasp.

Show some fortitude. Bush will win.

The more interesting suit seems to be the one in Hamilton County involving the provisional ballot fight using Bush Vs. Gore as the precedent. Spokesman for the Ohio Department of State says they will fight the lawsuit, but won't worry about it until after the election. Can't say if the individual filing the suit is a Dem because opensecrets.org is down due to high traffic. Of course, the Dems hinted that they'd use the provisional ballot issue in this state as the main hammer, but we thought it would come AFTER the election, not before. Ohio govt can be expected to fight vigorously that its provisional ballot handling is uniform and fair.

Ohio State Dept. also says that a record turnout of about 5.8 million people is expected. From the look at the early returns, that is not good for Kerry. McAuliffe is complaining that the long lines in Ohio are the fault of Republicans not installing enough voting machines. State of Ohio scoffs at that. McAullife says people are still waiting in line in Ohio, and now it's cold!!!! State of Ohio says that's odd, since the 3-hour long line in Franklin County (Columbus area) was dissolved instantly and painlessly when those outside were handed paper ballots to fill out. (Gee, who'd have thunk common sense would win out in Ohio. Clearly, this is no Florida). State has no trouble with it, but GOP is expected to appeal.

We’re...watching the election results with a young man from Iraq who is in the U.S. speaking to groups around the country about the situation in Iraq. He is here to thank Americans for his liberation. I just finished explaining the electoral vote system to him. He is sitting here with a map of the U.S. following the results with an intensity that brings a tear to my eye. Guess who he would be voting for.

We are feeling very confident about Florida. So are people on the ground there, who know a good deal about these things. Among the specific facts worth noting:

In DuVal County, our goal was to win by a 40,000 person margin. We’re now at a 60,000 person margin.

Most of the Panhandle counties are outstanding.

Eighty percent of Broward County is in. We expected to be down 200,000 -- and our worst case was that we would be down 300,000. The latest information is that we are down by 170,000.

In addition, Ohio looks increasing good for us. Reports from the ground are that people are very upbeat about turnout (for example, in places like Franklin Country).

Let me make a broader, and very significant, point. The media are now changing the models they are using to estimate where things stand. The actual votes underscored how flawed the exit polling data was – and so the media are making adjustments in where things stand. What does that specifically mean: The final exit polls had us down by five to six points in Wisconsin; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down three points in Iowa; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down in New Mexico; the estimates now are that we are even.

The tide is turning in our direction. We aren’t ready to declare victory; but we ready to say that we feel very good about where things stand, and where things seem to be headed.

MIAMI The global implications of the U.S. election are undeniable, but international monitors at a polling station in southern Florida said Tuesday that voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways from the best global practices.

The observers said they had less access to polls than in Kazakhstan, that the electronic voting had fewer fail-safes than in Venezuela, that the ballots were not so simple as in the Republic of Georgia and that no other country had such a complex national election system.

"To be honest, monitoring elections in Serbia a few months ago was much simpler," said Konrad Olszewski, an election observer stationed in Miami by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

WASHINGTON - This was not the breakout year for young voters that some had anticipated. Fewer than one in 10 voters Tuesday were 18 to 24, about the same proportion of the electorate as in 2000, exit polls indicated. Still, with voter turnout expected to be higher overall, more young people appeared to have come out.

Kathryn:

I’m sure you’re bombarded by email around now, so sorry to add to your burden, but I wanted to pass something along from a friend working for the campaign in Ohio. They have apparently seen the network exit polls for the state and it has Kerry winning MEN in Ohio 51/49, and winning women 53/47. They say that based on their numbers the results for men in the exit polls are definitely wrong. They are very happy with their turnout in the state, and until they started seeing the network exit polls they were pretty confident of victory. The polls at first got them down, but now that they have looked at the poll closely, they again feel pretty good, because they believe the poll has serious problems.

Here is the exit poll for the state http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

Take it for what it’s worth, I can’t vouch for the claim, just passing it on.

This conservative anti-Kerry Dem is feeling a whole lot better than I did a few minutes ago. W is right where he needs to be in Ohio. The bulk of the early returns (9pm) were in two of the most pro-Kerry counties in the state Cuyahoga and Trumbull. In the few rural and Columbus suburban counties W is right where he needs to be. Could it be those blasted exit polls are screwier than that screwy rabbit. Elmer get yer gun! Dave from Columbus

the returns are suggesting Bush has a chance and that Bush could win the popular vote...

we're getting more out of our red states --- a lot more....

and these exit polls appear to have been too Democratic.

Watch NH... If it stays close late, then we're in solid shape...

The Ohio Dem party did not file suit to keep the polls open longer. They filed suit to allow those waiting in lines alleged to be 3 to 4 hours long (they have affidavits taken from people in line in the 5 p.m. hour), asking the court to allow them to be handed provisional or paper ballots (not sure what that second method is supposed to accomplish). Sources tell me that the judge was sympathetic to the argument and was going to grant it.

Also, a woman named Audrey Schoring filed suit in two counties, using Bush vs. Gore as a precedent, argued that Blackwell and Hamilton counties (bush country, I think) were not using a uniform standard to judge and count provisional ballots. I'm Googling and looking up donation records right now to see if she's a Dem operative, or, GASP!, a GOP activist.

Either there is a huge methodological flaw in the exit polling data, or there has been a transformative change in the nature of the electorate. The former is far more likely. Which means that much of the media's narrative of the election so far looks to be very much wide of the mark. Imagine that.

Let me explain what I mean. Here are several data points that indicate that something is amiss on the matter of exit polling:
**In 2000, George W. Bush lost the white Catholic vote in Wisconsin. This time, he appears to be winning it by 10 percentage points. Yet I believe the exit polls have the white Catholic vote shrinking from more than one-third of the population to less than one-quarter. There's no reasonable explanation for it.
***In North Carolina, the exit polls show the voting population to be 63 percent women. That is obviously far too large – and it explains why the exit polls have the President up by only one in North Carolina. That figure won't stand up when the votes are counted; the President will carry North Carolina by a wide margin.
*** The exit polls have President Bush up in South Carolina by only seven points. He will win South Carolina by more than seven; you can take that to the bank. The Latino population makes up a larger percentage of Florida's population than in 2000. The President is carrying the Latino population in Florida by a greater margin than four years ago. Yet the exit polls have Latinos comprising a far smaller voting percentage of the population than four years ago.
***In Ohio, the exit polls show the vote among men to be 50-50. The final votes will almost surely be higher than that. ***President Bush is winning 43 percent of the Hispanic vote -- which, if that remains, means he should win re-election.
***Florida is a state in which you can measure absentee ballots early to get a good idea of where things stand. Right now we are dominating in absentee ballots in Florida. To be precise: we are leading by 154,000 votes – while in 2000, we won by only 98,000. So we are in much better shape this election that the last on this significant matter.
It’s worth recalling that in 2000, the final exit polls were significantly different than the actual vote count in at least seven states. And 2000 may be seen as the high-water mark for exit polling, compared to this year.
Something is clearly amiss. Indeed, this election may be a dagger at the heart of exit polling. The larger point is that we believe the President will not only carry Florida and Ohio; he has a real shot at carrying New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That doesn't mean he'll carry all those states -- but it does mean that some of the post-mortems you are seeing on television and elsewhere are wildly irresponsible. I should add that when you talk to some very smart political reporters, they will tell you that they are very suspicious of the exit polling data sets. And they should be. We've gone through a similar situation once before, in 2000. You'd think people would learn. But you would be wrong.
The bottom line is that people need to exercise reasonable judgment and patience; watching some political commentators take to the airwaves before 7:00 p.m. to interpret the results of the election is like watching housepainters pretending to be portrait artists.
There is an obvious solution to all this: people -- especially reporters and commentators -- should wait until the votes are cast and counted. And until that happens, they should withhold making judgments based on information that is at the very least suspect.

K-Lo,

Word is that Dems are going to file suit to keep the polls open later in Ohio, or possibly pass out paper ballots, because the lines have been too long today. Don't know if they want to do that statewide, but it appears that the suit will ask for the extension in select counties (guess which ones....hint, not in Bush Country). Got confirmation from the Ohio Dem Party, and a Republican lawyer in Cleveland plugged into the legal efforts said they are prepared to counter it.

Looks like the real lawsuits have started before the polls closed, and we might have a Missouri 2000 on our hands.

My Dad makes the world's best Manhattans - vermouth, plus rye whiskey, plus a bit of cherry juice. Don't listen to anyone who tells you to leave out the cherr juice. Dad makes a jar of Manhattans for each Easter, Thanksgiving and Christmas. I left an unfinished jar in my refrigerator for half a year - took it out, and ate the cherries, which had been marinating in the Manhattan. Bliss!

Better make a big jar, I fear.[ Because it will be a long night]

Keep in mind that this is similar to the real-time critiques of Bush's speeches that you guys do. "I didn't like that sentence." "He just stumbled over his words." "Oops, he should have mentioned abortion here." etc. You folks at NRO are alway to grim. Can't you wait just a little bit before you draw conclusions?

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

In early 2000, exit polls showed: Gore +3 in Florida;
Gore-Bush even in CO (Bush won by 9)
Gore +4 in AZ (Bush won by 6)


Senate Thune +4 (SD) (vs. Daschle)
Castor +3 (FL) (vs. Martinez)
Burr +6 (NC)
Bunning +6 (KT)
Coburn +6 (OK)
Demint +4 (SC)
Salazar +4 (CO) (vs. Coors)

At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.

There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states.

Also of note: right now we are ahead among Catholic in Wisconsin by ten points (we lost Catholics in Wisconsin in 2000). The same is true of Pennsylvania. And in the early exits nationally, we are getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote (in 2000, we received 35 percent).

One other thing: the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even.

I’m not being Pollyannaish here; the race will be a close one. But I would simply caution against putting too much weigh on such early polls. This drama has a ways to go before it fully unfolds.

While returning to work from my second trip to the polls (had to bug out earlier this morning, as the line at 6:15 was long enough to keep me from making it to work by 7:00), I spotted a Honda Insight (the 66 MPG gas/electric hybrid car) sporting a W’ 04 sticker. If Kerry can’t win over the hybrid car driving demographic, he’s finished!

KJL My 6 year old son is a political junkie -- his friend is the 2nd cousin of W, and he sleeps with a photo of The President and Mrs. Bush on his headboard.

When I left to vote this morning, he is well aware of the closeness of this race, he said "This election would be so much easier if we could just vote for Ronald Reagan. "

I just love him.

we've been getting some exits from various media outlets and some are contradictory, suggesting these guys are weighting them like crazy, etc.

it's best to disregard these things and just wait for the actual votes. we may have a 2002 situation.

Blogs Nudge Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Lower

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks changed course suddenly on Tuesday as chatter on the Internet speculated that early exit polls show Sen. John Kerry leading the presidential election in key states.

Ah you miss the real impact of Cliff's post re who got approached for exit polls...it showed that attractive woman are not republicans...:)

Just a comment from a liberal, looking in on your own little demolition derby...
Posted at 04:14 PM

I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE REST OF YOU [Ramesh Ponnuru]
but I'm going to take a break to read the New Criterion, which just came in the mail.
Posted at 04:13 PM

NINE LIVES [John J. Miller]
Colorado's Amendment 36 -- the one that would split the electoral college -- appears to be losing heavily.
Posted at 04:12 PM

BUSH WINS! [John J. Miller]
In the student election held at my kids' Catholic school.
Posted at 04:00 PM

GLOSSARY [KJL]
"GOTV" = Get Out the Vote.
Posted at 03:59 PM

I'M SO ASHAMED [Cliff May]
…for that display of unmitigated and unjustifiable sexism.

Chalk it up to Election Day jitters.

Is the sun over the yardarm yet? Somewhere? Cape Verde?
Posted at 03:58 PM

O-HI-O [Rick Brookhiser]
Don't forget the folk song:
I asked my love to take a walk,
To take a walk, just a little walk,
Down beside where the waters flow,
Down on the banks of the O-Hi-O.
He ends up murdering her.
Posted at 03:57 PM

MAKING ITS WAY AROUND VETERAN'S NETWORKS [John Hillen]
THis
Posted at 03:56 PM

THOSE BOGUS NUMBERS [Jonah Goldberg]

Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.

As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know.

Posted at 03:55 PM

EXITS [Shannen Coffin]
OK, now that the storm of emails has temporarily subsided, a couple of points. First, Drudge is reporting a skewed sample in the early exit polls. Second, IT DOESN'T MATTER since they are exit polls. Remember that the polling service royally botched Florida in 2000 and was disbanded as a result (at least that's my recollection)? There's no reason to think this is any better. There is no cause for panic and no reason to stay home today. Go vote, and you can rest assured that you've done your duty. Call a friend who you think might be avoiding the lines and tell them to get off their duff! And I appreciate the sentiment that the Corner shouldn't be posting exit poll information at all. But take it all with a grain of salt (not the kind that was thrown around the Mount Laurel voting places, however), and we'll survive this day together.
Posted at 03:55 PM

AND, TONY FROM MAINE WRITES... [KJL]

You were wrong to post that "don't get mad don't get depressed" message. You practically were conceding defeat. The amount of morale damage you did with the Republican forces across the country is immeasurable. You expect to post something like "Bush is losing in all of the battleground states, but hey, keep the faith! GOTV!". Bulls**t, it doesn't work that way. As soon as your post went up, a few people just in the corner of the building where I work came over, one person almost in tears. You should be very proud of yourself. Why don't you just shut the hell up for the rest of the day. There has been enough damage done already. And tell Jonah to shut up too - I don't need to see the stupid "I come back from lunch" post either.

OY. I'm waiting for reports that people killed their cats based on Corner posts.
Posted at 03:51 PM

YES! [Jonah Goldberg]
At least two voters have written me in for DC Representative! Do I sense a groundswell!
Posted at 03:50 PM

CLIFF IS EVIL TOO [KJL]
Now you've given all the women who weren't approached by pollsters a complex. Good work.
Posted at 03:49 PM

RE: DRUDGE [Cliff May]
Jonah, you ask “why on earth” the exit pollsters are approaching more women than men. My guess: Because more men then women are working as exit pollsters.

Like if you had that job, you’d really pass up the pretty girls to go ask the men to fill out your silly little forms.
Posted at 03:48 PM

HORSERACE SAYS NAY [KJL]
….to exit polls.

Ignore them says Jay Cost. And he explains why.
Posted at 03:44 PM

A POLL THAT MATTERS MORE... [Jonah Goldberg]
The stock market tanked the moment those kerry favorable exits came out.
Posted at 03:43 PM

FREE DRINKS FOR THE CORNER [KJL]

KJL: As a politcal junkie and NRO/Corner crack-head, I'd like to contribute to the GOTV effort in beautiful Upstate N.Y. As coincidence has it, I'm tending bar tonight, and I'll buy the first drink for 20 Corner readers who vote and come in after 6:00pm (that's when I start).

I'll have Fox News on at least one TV; the big screen if I can get away with it :)

I realize that getting out the vote in N.Y. is sort of like swimming upstream, but we can help the popular vote numbers, and maybe get Marilyn O'Grady a solid runner-up.

Where: Cap'n Morgan's
Bridge St.
Corning, N.Y.



FWIW: I AM NOT the owner of the aforementioned establishment.

Posted at 03:43 PM

NOT TO BE INDELICATE... [Jonah Goldberg]

but some of you angrier readers can kiss my Michael Moore if you know what I mean.

I know everyone's edgy. I know this is a tense time. The election's a big deal, blah, blah, blah. But none of it justifies some of the idiotic and nasty nonsense (a tiny minority of) you folks are hurling at me and/or us.

A few points directed solely at those people who need to hear it:

1. The exit numbers I posted were posted in order for me to debunk them. The Wonkette numbers are false. Or they are at least not exit poll numbers from today. It is possible, from what two sources tell me, that they are tallies of the early voting -- conducted by the Democrats. That's plausible.

2. On the posting of exit polls in general (an issue which NRO has been central to for five years), we do not have a monopoly over their publication. It's not like if we choose not to do it, that a dozen other sites won't go right ahead and do it anyway.

3. I have never been convinced that learning your guy is losing in a very tight race translates into lower turnout. It's entirely possible and in my mind probable that it gins up the base to redouble its efforts. Moreover, the entire universe is not reading NRO and deciding to judge based upon our reports on exit polls.

I am making these points in order to rebut the deluge of angry, pissy emails I'm getting from people who make it sound like we're collaborating with the Nazis when we're simply doing our job. My apologies for wasting everyone else's time.

Posted at 03:39 PM

DRUDGE SENATE #S [KJL]
Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
Posted at 03:37 PM

AND DRUDGE ALSO HAS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Bunning up 6, but I haven't ever really thought of that race as a real one.
Posted at 03:36 PM

A HIGH-LEVEL BUSH CAMPAIGN AIDE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
is pouring cold water on the Drudge "exit-poll" numbers. Points out that the first round of exit polls in 2000 had Bush tied in Colorado when he ended up winning by 9 points. The numbers appear to be unrepresentative samples, also, with a disproportionate number of women. Aide says he feels "pretty good" about OH and FL, Wisconsin is "close," and Iowa "very good." (Drudge, btw, has some Senate numbers up now, showing Thune, Coburn, and Demint up for the Rs, and Castor and Salazar for the Ds.)
Posted at 03:36 PM

BEARS REPEATING [Cliff May]
The Mystery Pollster explains what exit polls are and why they need to be taken with “a giant grain of salt” (not to mention a double shot of scotch or bourbon -- and branch water, naturally).
Posted at 03:35 PM

IRAN [Rachel Friedman]
Is this a forecast of what we’ll be in for during a Kerry presidency? A headline in today’s Chicago Sun-Times reads: “U.N. Nuclear Chief Scolds Iran, N. Korea.” Well, that’s a start. The AP article continues, “In his annual report to the U.N. General Assembly, Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran should suspend its uranium enrichment program ‘as a confidence building measure’ and North Korea should dismantle its nuclear weapons program or at least allow inspections to ensure it is ‘exclusively peaceful.’” Problem is, Teheran has repeatedly expressed its unwillingness to give up its “right” to the fuel cycle; and as we know, even if both countries decided tomorrow to declare a halt to their nuclear activities and open themselves up to closer inspections, it wouldn’t be terribly hard for them to carry on clandestinely. Bush gets this, and gets that it will take a lot more than a few scolding words to tackle the problem. Kerry, on the other hand, has proposed giving the Iranians low-enriched uranium as a test of their intentions, and wants a Security Council referral only after more IAEA inspections. The Bush team wants a referral right away. In other words, if Bush wins, we’ll see not only a lot more scolding words, but probably a lot more actions to back them up. If Kerry wins, well, who knows? Maybe we’ll all finally learn for sure that Iran and North Korea aren’t merely looking to meet their domestic energy needs.
Posted at 03:34 PM

OHIO [John J. Miller]
Another report from a guy on the ground: "Dem operatives are calling the Republican voting lists and (falsely) informing them that their precinct location has changed. They then give bogus information to the R voter."
Posted at 03:34 PM

BLAME K-LO [KJL]
One of our writers tells me: "You're so evil, if you believe some of my emails. You are singlehandedly responsible for ruining this election for everyone." GOTV so I don't get kicked out of the country. (I can only imagine the TAPPED/AS response to that.)
Posted at 03:33 PM

GO OUT AND RALLY W. TROOPS [KJL]
An e-mail:

I hope you guys can begin to correct the misimpression produced by these “early” numbers, which turned out to be a 59% female sample. I can tell you anecdotally that the hubbub about them has been hurting morale on our side. People need to go out and vote, and know that things are close and every vote absolutely matters. We will win if they vote!

Early exits=lame. Lame in terms of reliablility. And lame in terms, for our side, of what they are saying. So nix them and move on. Call your friends and family. Make sure people are making time to vote. If you think this election matters, help get it right.
Posted at 03:31 PM

DRUDGE [Jonah Goldberg]
Says that the early exits were based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio. If that's true, why on earth did they do it that way? But it would be good news if that's the case.
Posted at 03:24 PM

MSM [KJL]
Brit Hume said on FNC a little ago that exits are looking good for Kerry but quickly warned how unreliable exits are
Posted at 03:24 PM

EXIT POLLS [Mark Steyn]
C'mon, you guys. 57-41 in New Hampshire? I'll buy you and Jonah a Connecticut River lake apiece if that pans out.

As for 60-40 in PA, much as I respect the ruthlessness of the Rendell machine, that's as credible as Saddam's last Presidential victory.

Also: re O-Hi-O. Elmer and Bugs are great but don't forget that marvelous song in Wonderful Town:

Why-oh-why-oh-why-oh Why did I ever leave Ohio?
Posted at 03:23 PM

EXITS [Shannen Coffin]
Look, folks, these are still "polls," not actual numbers. The only number that matters is the number that is certified by the Secretary of State. You still need to vote. And don't get onto KLo for posting information she receives, even if it turns out to be bad. You'd be more upset if the Corner went dark, wouldn't you? Exit poll numbers are notoriously unreliable, and many a network got skewered for relying on them in 2000. Let's just wait and see. And keep the faith.
Posted at 03:16 PM

I WAS RIGHT. [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm being told that those Wonkette numbers are absolutely, positively not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either. Of course, that changes none of the caveats about exit polls already posted below.
Posted at 03:15 PM

WORD ON THE STREET... [Jonah Goldberg]
Things looking good for Thune. Plus four.
Posted at 03:06 PM

FOX [Rich Lowry]
FYI--shceduled to be on around 3:20. Then will be on tonight on Fox Braodcast--you know, Bart and Lisa Fox--on and off from 7pm on.
Posted at 03:05 PM

I DON'T BUY 'EM [Jonah Goldberg]

Several people have sent me these exit numbers (which, I now see, are also posted at Wonkette):

K - B

AZ 45-55

CO 48-51

LA 42-57

MI 51-48

WI 52-48

PA 60-40

OH 52-48

FL 51-48

MICH 51-47

NM 50-48

MINN 58-40

WISC 52-43

IOWA 49-49

NH 57-41

They're interesting, but wildly implausible. PA is not a 60-40 race. Indeed, were these numbers real -- or I should say reliable -- it's entirely possible that they're good news for Bush. If they were collected uniformly the same way. Why? Because any tally that comes up with a 60-40 race for Kerry in PA right now has to be filtering in some pro-Kerry way that would have to be equalized by the time the final tally is reached. If that filter had Bush losing in PA by 20 points and MN by 18, presumably the equalization of the numbers would push the close calls in Fla, IA and Ohio into Bush's column. Then again, I sincerely doubt that any of that scenario is at work here. I simply don't buy these numbers. That doesn't mean that Bush may not be losing right now or that the Kerry people are unwarrented in their alleged happiness right now. But if all the hullabaloo is being driven by these numbers in particular, I would definitely take a wait-and-see attitude. I would also vote, then wait-and-see.

Posted at 02:59 PM

AN HISTORIC ACHIEVEMENT [Cliff May]
It’s 3 PM on November 2, 2004. There has not been a terrorist attack on American soil since 9/11/01.

If Osama bin Laden could have attacked us over the past three years, he would have.

If OBL could attack us today, he would.

Whoever is responsible for keeping the barbarians outside the gates deserves praise – and re-election.
Posted at 02:53 PM

WHAT I KEEP HEARING [KJL]
is basically what Drudge has up.

Latest I have seen: Bush down everywhere. -1 ini FL, -4 Ohio. Losing PA big. Losing Wi by 5. IA down 1. Don't have Mich. Down big in NH. Down small in NM. But sample is heavy female and first wave is always flaky.
Posted at 02:49 PM

FROM AN ANNONYMOUS GOP OPERATIVE [KJL]
We are hitting our vote goals in FL and will win here. OH turnout seems to be lower than expected due to rain.
Posted at 02:49 PM

THE ANGER ROLLS IN [KJL]
An e-mail: "Stop posting exit poll data. I am suppose to go vote after work but after reading The Corner, what's the point???? Youre so selfish KLo. You want to be the center of attention and to hell with people who haven't voted. Tell Jonah to shut the hell up also. Don't you people have real jobs?"

Um, real or not, this is our job.
Posted at 02:47 PM

A PREDICTION [John J. Miller]
I saw Ed Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation, this morning and asked him who would win today: "The good guys!" he said.
Posted at 02:46 PM

ANOTHER EXIT REMINDER [KJL]
Bush Cheneyers reminding: First wave of exit polls are not reliable--they are raw numbers, not balanced. They don't include absentee and early votes. Example: First round of exit polling in '02 CO Senate race showed Strickland up ten percentage points over Allard.
Posted at 02:46 PM

SECONDHAND INFO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
The Republican who gave it to me is a congenital pessimist and has been calling around "looking for bad news"--and not finding it.
Posted at 02:46 PM

"CHILL" [KJL]
Andrew Sullivan tells me to "chill," says "The American people are speaking. Even if you might not like what they have to say."

Look, if Kerry wins, we'll deal if that unfortunate time comes (though, I'll remind you we're nowhere near that point--hours left in voting). But early exit polls are not the American people speaking.
Posted at 02:45 PM

ABOUT EXIT POLLS [John J. Miller]
This is my fourth election in which these exits polls have trickled into an office where I'm working -- and not once have they held up in their entirety. At mid-day, they may in fact point to a few trendlines, but we don't know what they are until later because they also include some red herrings. An example: I remember in 1992 being told that Clinton was edging Bush in Virginia in the middle of the afternoon. This was of interest because several of my colleagues were Virginia voters. The final result was Bush 45 percent, Clinton 41 percent.
Posted at 02:44 PM

BUSH MAKES CALLS [KJL]
from Columbus.
Posted at 02:42 PM

SECONDHAND INFO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I'm told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and "doing well" in Ohio. And they don't think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. Fwiw.
Posted at 02:37 PM

MORE OHIO [John J. Miller]
"Absentee ballot issues continue. Stark [County] Board of Elections allows those who got an absentee ballot but claim they haven't sent it to vote regularly. Apparently there are two absentee voter lists - those that were sent absentee ballots, and those that have voted absentee. The BoEs claim that their record-keeping will prevent any double-voting. I am not convinced. ... Summit County, Ward K, Precinct 3, Witness: xx. Several instances of absentee voters showing up and voting regularly. Throughout Stark County this is happening. ... There are several success stories. For every five incident reports, we get a call about provisional ballots being provided when they should be or aggressive electioneering being stopped."
Posted at 02:36 PM

CRIMINEY! [Jonah Goldberg]
I went out for a brief lunch with missus and I come back to discover things are going south? What the...? From what I'm hearing, Florida's an uphill climb right now and New Hampshire's a lost cause. Trying to nail things down.
Posted at 02:34 PM

REMINDER [KJL]
I'm told you can help make phone calls for Tom Coburn nationwide by emailing electcoburn@gmail.com ...
Posted at 02:34 PM

RUMOR [NRO Staff]
bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt.
Posted at 02:33 PM

SMART THOUGHTS RE: EXITS [KJL]
Here.
Posted at 02:27 PM

WHAT MISSED OPPORTUNITY? [Ramesh Ponnuru]

E. J. Dionne Jr. and David Brooks argue that Bush squandered an opportunity to remake American politics. Brooks claims that "Bush didn't build the governing majority that was there for the taking." Dionne says that Bush opted for partisanship rather than building on our post-9/11 national unity.

I don't really buy any of this. Brooks's one example of something Bush could have done is to try a new, "flexible, market-based system that would have cleaned the environment better than the current system." Now maybe Bush should have done more on this front. But the idea that this step would have contributed in a significant way to a "governing majority" is unserious.

As for Dionne: The sense of national unity we all felt right after the attacks was bound to go away, and blaming Bush for its dissipation is foolish. Americans had different views of how to respond to the attacks, rooted in different philosophies and instincts. Bush was going to alienate either his base or the Democrats. Finally, the idea that Bush was markedly more partisan than the Democrats in 2002 is itself a product of Democratic partisanship. The Democrats' maneuvering that year over the Iraq war--demanding a vote, then complaining about having to vote before the election, then mostly voting for a war they didn't really support--didn't exactly put the national ahead of the partisan interest.

Posted at 02:16 PM

FLORIDA EXITS [KJL]
Hearing Kerry one ahead, from multiple (media and political) sources
Posted at 02:12 PM

WARNING [KJL]
Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn't over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.

DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.

I contend this is the most important election of many of our lifetimes. I'm almost willing to make a deal and give the Dems 2008 if we can have this one.
Posted at 02:10 PM

OHIO UPDATE [John J. Miller]
From a Republican source in the thick of things: "The aggressive electioneering is so bad that we're only reporting the worst of it. We just need to get the 527s out of the buildings--forget about whether they're within 100 feet of the buildings." This source also has a report of a Democrat or 527-type walking into a polling place with an Alzheimer's patient and issuing orders on how to vote. Finally: "The lines are full but they're not ridiculous."
Posted at 02:09 PM

COLORADO REPORT [John J. Miller]
"In response to widespread reports throughout Colorado alleging improper activities by MoveOn.Org, attorneys for the Colorado Republican Party have asked the Secretary of State’s Office to issue a statewide emergency HAVA ALERT. If issued, the Alert will direct all 64 County Elections Officers to enforce the law that prohibits the very sort of aggressive electioneering that MoveOn operatives and their attorneys are conducting within the 100-foot boundary round polling locations."
Posted at 02:05 PM

DAKOTA DISAPPOINTMENT [John J. Miller]
Peter: Happy to hear about Hoeven. When I think about North Dakota this year, though, I think of a lost opportunity: Democratic senator Byron Dorgan should have been beatable, with the right candidate. And several potential candidates were available, including former governor Schaeffer. But none of them entered the race, and the last poll I saw had Dorgan being re-elected with 71 percent. In a year with Bush on the top of the ticket, he should have had a Thune-style challenger. Maybe Hoeven for Senate in 2010?
Posted at 02:03 PM

EXITS--BETTER [KJL]
Kerry +4 in Ohio, I'm hearing from good multiple sources. I'd nix the earlier report. (BY BETTER I MEAN MORE RELIABLE EXIT REPORT, MEANING I HAVE GOTTEN FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES.)

MESSAGE: GET OUT THE W VOTE IN OHIO.
Posted at 01:50 PM

UPDATE [Jim Robbins]
Bush. Ohio futures shares now up almost 10%. Volume in Bush shares trading at 8 times Kerry shares. Bush up 9%, Kerry down 8% showing a slow decline all day.
Posted at 01:45 PM

ONE VICTORY ALREADY CERTAIN! [Peter Robinson]
Oh, all right. I’ll confess. The victory is already certain because nobody ever doubted it: Today John Hoeven will be elected to a second term as the Republican governor of North Dakota just as surely as Barak Obama will be elected Democratic senator from Illinois. Why does a Californian care who wins in North Dakota? Oh, all right. I’ll confess once again. John was a classmate of mine at Dartmouth. He’s well-spoken, fundamentally conservative (in North Dakota politics, you have to look after the farmers in a way that might not entirely please, let us say, Milton Friedman), and one of the nicest guys I’ve ever known. Why should you care? Because North Dakota’s senators are liberal Democrats, and John’s re-election places him in a good position to wait a few years, then knock one of them off.

John Hoeven, re-elected governor of North Dakota. His victory will be completely overlooked tonight, of course, so take a moment to celebrate right now.
Posted at 01:44 PM

DEMS FOR BUSH [KJL]
Passed along from a reader:

Voted mid-morning in heavily Democratic Montgomery County, Maryland. Long lines; took about an hour. Afterwards I met a woman outside carrying a placard, "Democrat for Bush." Her reasoning surprised me. She has two sons, ages 18 and 19, and gave up on Kerry because of his pledge to increase our armed forces by 40,000 soldiers or so. She seemed convinced that the greater chance of her sons being drafted lay with a Kerry Presidency. When I said I was surprised to find a Democrat for Bush here in Maryland, she mentioned that her brother-in-law, who is from Iran, and very liberal, is also voting for Bush out of consideration for his relatives back in Iran.

Posted at 01:37 PM

EXITS [KJL]
Bush leads ohio 49 to 41, we hear. (Note: first round not reliable)
Posted at 01:33 PM

JOHN FUND'S ELECTION GUIDE [John J. Miller]
Worth reading here.
Posted at 01:24 PM

BUSH TAKES GUAM [Jim Robbins]
See here.
Posted at 01:24 PM

FUNNY [KJL]
This taped call noted: "Hello. This is President George Bush. You know, Barbara's husband..."
Posted at 01:22 PM

SO MANY PEOPLE [KJL]
have asked me this: "How is there not a NRO party in D.C. tonight? That is a missed opportunity for a drunken right-wing extravaganza."

Answer: We have to work!!!!!! I've been amused at the high volume of 2 am e-mails: WHY ARE YOU NOT POSTING NOW? YOU GET PAID A LOT TO DO THIS. Sorry to say, a) people have actually been giving up family time and the like to post during weekend, nights, etc. Sorry there’ss not more, but I am grateful for the great volume and quality we have—we, of course, think it is worth it. a1. NR IS NOT ROLLING IN DOUGH, part 57. Believe me, you would know it if we were--like we wouldn’t bother you with fundraising drives and subscription plugs.

a2)Vent over.

For any in doubt, be here or be square. We’ll be Cornering, Kerryspotting. Battlegroundering. (?!)Will be all over TV and radio (Fox (Rich), ABC radio (Geraghty), Hugh Hewitt (KLo), Michael Graham (various), BBC (Miller), Laura Ingraham (Byron), Vatican Radio(KLo) and more).

And, for the pizza guy: SEND SCOTCH TOO.
Posted at 01:21 PM

A GUN-RIGHTS GUIDE TO THE ELECTIONS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
David Kopel has put it together, and it should be helpful tonight. If anyone has a tort-reformers' or pro-lifers' version of the same thing, email me at rponnuru@nationalreview.com
Posted at 01:19 PM

THE SURPRISE INCUMBENT LOSS SCENARIO [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Several emails, most of them nominating (or arguing against) 1980 and 1888.

Here's one email: "The three incumbents to lose since 1936 - Ford, Carter and H.W. Bush - were seriously challenged from within their party in primaries, fighting to regain up to 33 points in late summer and behind through most of the fall (Carter the Gallup exception for the third circumstance). Each of them faced considerable problems with charisma or the appearance haplessness; for all his detractors, Bush is grudgingly accepted as irrepressible and earthy. Carter, Reagan and Clinton 'connected' with the American public. Kerry's inability to do so has probably won more headlines than anything else."

Another emailer points out that there are more examples of the reverse: "incumbent presidents everyone more or less thought would lose but didn't," like Harry Truman.

Posted at 01:12 PM

CRUMMY WEATHER [John J. Miller]
Since when do meteorologists get to play political pundits? This article quotes one who thinks rain will lower Ohio turnout by 2-4 points and Michigan and Pennsylvania turnout by 1 point. (Maybe those voting machines in Philadelphia were adjusted to offset the loss of voters.)
Posted at 01:09 PM

I UNDERSTAND HOW THIS GUY FEELS [KJL]
(though no one should EVER do something so rash as he considered): "I am a new NR subscriber, as of a few days ago, although I almost canceled my subscription after seeing Jonah Goldberg's comment yesterday about wishing the election campaign would go on. "
Posted at 12:59 PM

MORE ON TIRE SLASHING [KJL]
here.
Posted at 12:58 PM

RE: MELLMAN [John Podhoretz]
Mark Mellman's piece in the Hill is one of the most extraordinary political documents I've ever read. All you need do is stitch together the quotes that suggest Kerry is heading to his doom:

"Win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces."

" First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime."

"Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated....The level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office."

"On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that."

" We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

"It has been an uphill fight."

Mellman wrote this on Sunday. It is all but impossible to believe that Kerry's own pollster didn't see numbers that depressed him deeply and caused him to draft an unprecedentedly negative report on his candidate's own prospects to be published on the morning of the election. Whatever qualifiers he has added on to suggest that he still expects Kerry to win are just that -- qualifiers, and utterly unconvincing ones.

Take from this what you will, but there's no question that inside the Kerry camp at least some people think their man has already lost.
Posted at 12:52 PM

GOP NY COMES OUT OF THE WOODWORK?? (I WISH) [KJL]
Another Rockland County NY e-mail: "I voted in Rockland County this morning, & in my 12 years of voting @ this same spot never saw it so crowded. Time will tell."
Posted at 12:51 PM

WISCONSIN [KJL]
Rush reporting, and I just got a phone call about: Milwaukee: tires slashed on 30 GOP vans that were set to take people to the polls
Posted at 12:43 PM

LUNCHTIME, ELECTION DAY [Jonah Goldberg]
Kathryn -- I think this would be an excellent time to shut down the Corner for those much-needed repairs.
Posted at 12:42 PM

BUSH IS GOLD [Jonah Goldberg]
Does the gold market think Bush is going to take it? This guy thinks so.
Posted at 12:41 PM

EBERSTADT [Stanley Kurtz]
Early returns are in and the numbers are spectacular! Mary Eberstadt’s Home Alone America has moved from 20,796 to 604 in amazon’s sales rankings in just three hours. (For more on Home Alone America, see my post from this morning.) If Corner readers can do this for Home Alone America, I know they can put the president over the top.
Posted at 12:37 PM

FROM COLORADO [John J. Miller]
A well-placed source: "Going into Election Day, Republicans had a 76,000 voter advantage in early voting and absentees turned in. To mobilize the vote, there have been 6,000 volunteers on the streets who knocked on 550,000 doors. Republicans have poll watchers heavily deployed today. And the President looks to be headed to a 5 or 6 point win. Even if the unaffiliateds break for Ken Salazar, this is a great hand for Pete Coors to be holding going in. Will be tight, but if the GOTV works the way it did in 2002, and there's no indication that it won't, Pete should make it thru. AND, we had a great snowfall yesterday, so spread the word to conservatives to come ski and celebrate a big win! "
Posted at 12:37 PM

I HEAR [KJL]
Zogby has new numbers in a few:

CO--KERRY UP (phone), PA--TIED (phone), VA--TIED (online), FL--BUSH UP (phone)

(Explanattion: Three-day rolling on the phones; the online is the final for their online polling)
Posted at 12:36 PM

DR. DEATH UPDATE [John J. Miller]
A pleasant thought on a nerve-wracking day: Jack Kevorkian remains behind bars, and the Supreme Court just made sure he's going to stay there until at least 2007.
Posted at 12:27 PM

THE COURTS [KJL]
Chief Justice William Rehnquist’s hospitalization this past week highlighted an issue that’s in the background of this presidential election, but one that will affect America’s future in dramatic ways. The chief justice is on the mend, but we are reminded of the inevitable: whoever wins will name the next Supreme Court justice—very likely more than one.

Some conservatives last week quickly jumped to bogeyman possibilities: Chief Justice Hillary Rodham Clinton under a President John F. Kerry! But one doesn’t need a Hillary Clinton to get judicial activism.

“A Kerry presidency would have dire consequences for the future of the Supreme Court and of our country,” warns a group of Catholic lawyers in a recently released open letter (which our Shannen Coffin had something to do with). Their cautions are couched in Catholic terms, aimed at Catholic voters, but their message is relevant not only to Catholics, but people of faith across the board, as well as any American who does not want Supreme Court justices legislating from the bench.

Andy McCarthy has more on judges on NRO today. Read it. And rally anyone who needs rallying.
Posted at 12:20 PM

MELLMAN [Jonah Goldberg ]
Here's his dour column (the one Cliff mentioned earlier).
Posted at 12:20 PM

CLINTON CAMPAIGNS [John J. Miller]
From a source in North Carolina: "Bill Clinton called into at least one urban radio station in NC today urging listeners to support Bowles. This is the first time Clinton has been used by the Bowles campaign (in either race). And by doing it on urban radio stations, it conveniently flies under the radar screen."
Posted at 12:18 PM

SENATE SCUTTLEBUTT [Jonah Goldberg]

An opposing view:

Jonah,

I hope the reports from the Republican senate circles you refer to are more
accurate for others than they are when talking about Feingold. Whoever told
you he's going down does not understand Wisconsin voters. Watch the returns
from Dane County (Madison area) and the City of Milwaukee. They will be so
overwhelmingly in favor of Feingold, that Michels won't stand a chance no
matter what happens in the rest of the state. Six years ago, Feingold was
up against Rep. Mark Neumann. He was a formidable candidate who ran a great
campaign on the issues of taxes, abortion, defense, etc. He was beaten by
Feingold, albeit in a very close race. Michels is no Neumann, and has run a
horrible campaign. He has NO shot at this seat.

Posted at 12:15 PM

WHEN THE MAN COMES AROUND... [Jonah Goldberg]
Everyone here knows I've got my problems with Bush. And this thing takes some liberties. But goshdarn it, I'm just a sucker for this sort of thing. Turn up the volume and enjoy. Pretty much a must click (unless you're at the office and volume is a problem).
Posted at 12:13 PM

LOL [KJL]
That's a very funny email. The lengths addicts will go...
Posted at 12:08 PM

BUY NRO PIZZA? [Jonah Goldberg]

Alas, I'm working from home but I like the idea nonetheless. From a reader:

Are NRO contributors working out of NR World HQ today? As I am depending on you guys not leaving your computers to post updates, we the readers could order food and send it to your HQ so you need not get up other than bathroom/sanity breaks. Just a thought, has to be a good pizza place near your HQ that readers could reach by phone with a credit card.

Posted at 12:07 PM

WATCHING THE MONEY GUYS [Jim Robbins]
Futures Market Intrade.com shows Bush elected up 5.6%, Bush to take Ohio up 7.9%, Bush to take 300+ electoral votes up 13.3%.
Posted at 12:05 PM

WATCHING W. WIN FROM SADDAM PALACE [KJL]
A nice way to ring in electoral victory:

K-Lo,
Lots of excitement over here in Baghdad for the election! (I am a former White House attorney who left for Iraq to help the reconstruction efforts.) The returns will likely start rolling in here around 3 or 4am. I work in one of Saddam's former palaces and my friends and I are staying up all night to celebrate. Is there a more rewarding place to be in the world than one of Saddam's old lairs, ringing in a Bush victory?? Methinks not. Only downside: we are stuck watching BBC and CNN World for coverage. Eh.

Posted at 12:04 PM

I WANT... [Jonah Goldberg ]
The six seconds of my life that I wasted on this back (nod to Sam Rosenfeld at Tapped)
Posted at 12:04 PM

THAT'S THINKING! [KJL]
An e-mail:

I voted earlier this morning in Falls Church, VA--an area with a VERY large Arab population. Outside the door of the polling place, where you have your Bush and Kerry campaigners giving it one last shot, the Republican Party rep was speaking to voters waiting in the long line--in Arabic (or Farsi). Not sure because I didn't understand it, but someone in the local Republican Party is thinking on his toes!

Posted at 12:02 PM

TONIGHT [Kate O'Beirne]
A friend's fantasy:

It's 9 pm on Nov. 2 and Brokaw and Russert are doing the wrap-up. "Tim," Tom asks, "how do you account for the extraordinary discrepancy between polls that showed a dead heat right up to the end and the decisive margin by which the President was re-elected tonight?"

Posted at 12:01 PM

DEAD PEOPLE VOTING [KJL]
See here.
Posted at 12:00 PM

CLIFF [KJL]
that Mellman piece is an extraordinary concession. Is it unprecedented?
Posted at 11:54 AM

BUGS & FUDD [Jonah Goldberg ]
This is what I'm talking about.
Posted at 11:51 AM

LAW PROFS FOR KERRY [Jonathan H. Adler]
Professors at law schools in Ohio and Pennsylvaniam, including yours truly, have received unsolicited entreaties from "New York Lawyers for Kerry" to help with voter turnout efforts. What is interesting about the mailings is that they have been sent indiscriminately to the entire faculty list, presumably on the assumption that most law professors lean to the left. Alas, at nearly all law schools, that is a reasonable assumption to make.
Posted at 11:45 AM

MORE MOVEON SHENANIGANS [KJL]
Hearing reports throughout Colorado that moveon.org is sending infiltrators into republican phonebanks as volunteers in order to sabotage.
Posted at 11:44 AM

WHERE'S MY DONUT? [Jennifer Graham]
My yellow-dog-Democrat best friend reports that she almost --- ALMOST --- voted for Bush this morning... not because of his policies, but because of the smiling women passing out doughnuts, cranberry bread, juice and homemade cookies to voters standing in line at Mount Bethel United Methodist Church in Cobb County, Ga.

There was, I'm sorry to report, NO foodstuff distribution at the elementary school where I voted. And I can't think of any Krispy Kreme confection that would have swayed my vote for Kerry..... but Kerry voters, are -- by and large -- squishier than we are, so don't underestimate the value of a couple of Veggie Lovers pizzas tonight around 6:30 in your polling place....
Posted at 11:42 AM

VIVA BUSH! [KJL]
Was in Washington Heights (way uptown NYC) very early this morning. Spanish Kewrry Edwards signed blanketed the place. I was wishing I had some of those Viva Bush signs on hand.
Posted at 11:40 AM

FROM ROCKLAND CO. NY [KJL]
An e-mail: "Just came from my polling place in oh-so-blue downstate New York (Rockland County) an hour ago. The crowd: six poll workers, one poll watcher, and one solitary voter (me). Apathy reigns. Now I know how Hawaii has felt all these years."
Posted at 11:37 AM

WHAT'S FRENCH FOR "WISHFUL THINKING"? [Jonah Goldberg ]

From the Agence France Press [emphasis mine]:

"But the Jewish vote will be different this year, with more voting for (outgoing President George W.) Bush because they believe voting for him is good for Israel," he added.

Posted at 11:34 AM

RE: PHILLY [KJL]
FNC is reporting Kerry camp is dismissing Philly fraud reports. I know from BC that the GOP is filing suit to have machines impounded.
Posted at 11:34 AM

FROM IRAQ [KJL]
Talked to our friend Michael Rubin, who is back in Iraq, this morning. Asked him what people over there are saying about our Election Day. Here’s what he said:

Most Iraqis are pro-Bush, be they Arabs or Kurds. Liberating 22 million people is never a mistake. And, as bad as the insurgency may be, they are killing thousands of Iraqis and Bush is the one standing up to the insurgents.

Not everyone is pro-Bush, though. Kurdish separatists within the KDP and PUK leadership lean toward Kerry because they see withdrawal or chaos in the rest of Iraq to their local advantage.

I spent several days in Ankara, Turkey, before heading into Iraq. Turkey's ruling party, the AKP, is pro-Bush or, more accurately, anti-Kerry. The reasons are four-fold:

1. Kerry has long supported the Armenian genocide resolution.
2. Peter Galbraith has advocated Kurdish separatism, and was hired by the Kurdistan Regional Government (Barzani and Talabani) as an advisor.
3. They associate the Council on Foreign Relations to be pro-Kerry, and have not forgotten Les Gelb's New York Times op-ed calling for a division of Iraq into a Sunni state, a Shi'a state, and a Kurdish state.
4. The current ambassador, Eric Edelman, is perhaps the most popular ambassador in years, and they do not want to lose him.

For more foreign opinion, which might surprise you, see Jonathan Foreman’s piece on the homepage, from India.
Posted at 11:32 AM

ODDSCHECKER [Jonah Goldberg ]
This site is only for people -- like Ramesh -- with a serious problem.
Posted at 11:29 AM

SENATE SCUTTLEBUTT [Jonah Goldberg]

Word in Republican circles is good as of early this morning according to their internal polling. This is to be taken with a five-pound bag of salt. Still, some Republican operative types are saying that not only will Daschle lose today, but so will Russ Feingold. That would obviously be good news for Bush. Coburn wins and so does Murkowski (I'm a bit dubious about that). Things are a bit cloudier and more pessimistic for Bunning.

Posted at 11:25 AM

O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
I don't think of the CSN song about Kent State. Yes, I know it.
Posted at 11:21 AM

TO GIVE THE CARDINAL HIS DUE [Peter Robinson]
From a reader:

I attended Mass last week at a parish in Los Angeles and during the announcements the priest read a statement by Cardinal Mahoney urging Catholics to vote against Prop 71. Yesterday, at a different parish in LA, the parish bulleting had a copy of the Cardinal's letter in the bulletin.

My suggestion? That the Cardinal ought to get a copy of that pastoral letter, scrawl "personal" and "urgent" across the top, then fax it to the governor's office in Sacramento.
Posted at 11:20 AM

RE: INCIDENT IN NJ [Shannen Coffin]
Update. The substance tested to be harmless, salt-based substance. But no sooner had the Mount Laurel authorities cleared the high school gym than the perpertrator(s) struck again at a separate polling place across town, shutting down (at least temporarily) another polling place. I'm not going to point fingers at who might be responsible for this, but whoever it is should be put away for a healthy length of time.
Posted at 11:19 AM

MOVE.ON AT THE POLLS [KJL]
I've heard this from several readers this morning and have Bush-Cheney confirmation. MoveOn.org has set up at polling places in several places. They have tables and claim to be doing exit polls. Legally, they can be within 100-300 feet (varies by state) but not any closer, and they are violating this in many states. County officials are working to move them and in some cases cops have been called to remove them. These problems have been reported in: IA, MI, MN, ME, CO, NH, WI.
Posted at 11:18 AM

REPORT FROM THE FIELD [John Hillen]
I just voted in the semi-bucolic DC exburb of Oakton Viginia and the turnout there is way above anyone’s recent memory. Nobody in the 75 minute-long line, including neighborhood denizens who’ve been there since the early 60’s could ever remember a turnout that big or more than a 10 minute wait. And my wait was the shortest of the day there so far.
Posted at 11:15 AM

RE: GOES [Larry Kudlow]
The Horse Race Blog, which I know you’re all watching, has similar numbers. He expects the margin to be 51.0 to 47.3 with Bush garnering 306-327 EVs while Kerry gets 211-232. Bush carries Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Kerry carries Michigan, New Hampshire, Hawaii, and New Jersey. Pennsylvania is too close to call. Jay Cost believes the partisan sample will more closely resemble 2002 than 2000. He also thinks GoTV will trump Democratic 527s in the ground game.
Posted at 11:08 AM

INCIDENT IN NEW JERSEY [Shannen W. Coffin]
Just got a call from my brother in law, the Deputy Town manager in Mount Laurel, New Jersey. Someone came into one of their two polling places (the high school gym) and dumped white powder all over the place. Voting shut down in that location -- although some are voting provisionally in another location in town. Hazmat teams and news crews on site. Probably a hoax, but serious business.
Posted at 11:01 AM

NBC STANDS FOR NEGATIVE BUSH COVERAGE [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader at the University of Chicago:

Jonah,

I am a first-year here at the GSB (free markets rule!) and a long time NR/NRO reader.

If some people have doubt about the bias in the main stream media, they should read this story.

Last night, my macroeconomics professor had a very interesting tale to tell. This guy is great, he is a libertarian and just loves to go on and on about gov't spending, lower taxes, the Social Security/Medicare problem, etc. Anyway, to the story. Last Thursday, NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw (not Tom, but probably one of the network reps) contacted him as they wanted him to go on the air on Monday night to talk about the GDP numbers that were released last Friday. He said that he would and that he would need time to digest the report once it came out. Well, the report came out and he was very encouraged by the numbers as they went up for the past quarter. So, he waited for NBC's call on Monday. When NBC called, they told him that they were not going to run the story now (Do you see where this is going?). After some prodding, NBC finally admitted that since the GDP numbers were up they were not interested in the story. If the numbers were down, they would ha ve run the story! Hmmmmm...

He was very disappointed and depressed about their actions. I was not surprised, but was disappointed at the same time. Worst of all, they would have run this story on Monday before the election. Isn't the fact that GDP is up newsworthy? Not unless you have an agenda.

Arrgghhhh!

Posted at 11:01 AM

A VOTE FOR W. SAVES YOU FROM SPEEDING TICKETS [KJL]
An e-mail:

Today, our electrical intern, who is a Russian immigrant (moved here when she was 13) was driving 30 miles over the speed limit on 71 north from Cincinnati. She was speeding to get back to work because she had waited in line in her hometown for an hour (starting at 6:30 am) to vote. She was pulled over by the State Highway Patrol. Besides speeding, she also had an expired registration (she's a month late renewing it.) On top of all this, she couldn't locate her proof of insurance. She explained to him her plight of waiting in line to vote, and that she was rushing to get to work in Columbus. He took her driver's license, started to walk to his cruiser to process the ticket, and then turned back to ask who she voted for. She said "Bush". He turned around, handed her back the license, and said "I think this time I'll just give you a warning".

Posted at 11:00 AM

MEDIA FAVORED KERRY [Tim Graham]
Two polls released last week found that more people perceive the media tilting coverage in favor of Kerry than Bush. Gallup determined that 35 percent think coverage has tilted toward Kerry compared to just 16 percent who said it favored Bush. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press discovered that "half of voters (50 percent) say most newspaper and TV reporters would prefer to see John Kerry win the election, compared with just 22 percent who think that most journalists are pulling for George Bush." More here.
Posted at 10:59 AM

VOTING IN VA. [KJL]
An e-mail:

I voted in McLean VA this morning at 7:10 and was #187. People have been streaming in all morning (I know since I live across the street from the polling place). BUT you would hope that people who live in the close-in suburbs of DC - those who aren't diplomats! - could get off the couch and vote, so I am not sure how significant this is. For alot of these people, their jobs may be quite literally on the line!

My neighbor is on the precinct board, and is working the line with a hand-held computer offering to doublecheck that people are at the right precinct. I've not seen this before, and I think it is a great addition which, I would assume, would cut down on provisional ballots case through confusion.

Posted at 10:57 AM

51.2% TO 47.8% [Larry Kudlow]
That’s the call made by Ed Goeas, co-author of the blue-chip, bipartisan Battleground Poll. I spoke to Ed this morning, at 7 a.m. He is using an ultra-conservative, worst-case, 2000-like, partisan sample of 44.3% Democrats and 42.3% Republicans. He tells me Bush has bounced up in the past 48 hours on leadership and Iraq. Also, on the economy -- on keeping America prosperous, Bush has moved up from a 45% to 47% deficit to a 48% to 46% lead. This could be the response to the excellent GDP economic report published Friday and totally ignored by the political-pundit class. Investors may be responding positively to the pre-election stock market rally. Ed also believes that white, conservative, Christian Evangelicals could carry the day for Bush, where 83% look to be voting, giving a 69 percentage-point margin to Bush, and seven percentage points higher intensity support for Bush than labor unions have for Kerry. Goeas also weights Hispanic support for Bush at a conservative 35%, even though his “unaided” tally actually produces a 43% Hispanic vote for Bush. Goeas also believes he is underweighting black support for Bush and male support.
Posted at 10:53 AM

INCUMBENT RULES [Ramesh Ponnuru]

When is the last time a sitting president was rejected by the public without everyone knowing in advance that it would happen? In 1992, everyone knew Bush was going to lose. Were people surprised by Carter's 1980 loss? Ford had a late surge in 1976, but, again, everyone had to know he was going to lose. Right now, at least in the polls, most people seem to think Bush will win.

Also: When is the last time that a candidate held a decisive advantage on the issues that likely voters generally regarded as the most important ones, and still lost?

People can send me answers at rponnuru@nationalreview.com. Meanwhile, I'm off to vote.

Posted at 10:53 AM

BREAKING FOR BUSH IN OHIO [KJL]
Three Bush-Cheney types have pointed this out to me today: Seevral Ohio polls broke for Bush last night. Esp. Zog.
Posted at 10:49 AM

MATALIN SAYS... [KJL]
Mary Matalin says it “feels good.” She tells me: “with 2 1/2 hours til the first exits, only anecdotal evidence to chew over. Reports of great GOP turnout everywhere. Many Bush Cheney stickers at my own polling place in heavily democratic Old Town, Va. Everyone at headquarters psyched. Closing polls looked good. The MVP of this cycle will be the bloggers. So thanks to all and go forth and lead.”
Posted at 10:49 AM

THE PERFECT ELECTION DAY TIMEKILLER [Shannen Coffin]
I usually hate pop-up ads, but Orbitz's sports games usually are worth a few minutes diversion. And given the time on the clock to kill today, their Paper Football Challenge is perfect. Go Play!
Posted at 10:47 AM

VOTER SUPPRESSION IN O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg ]
I'm sure Democrats will be scandalized.
Posted at 10:46 AM

PARTISAN POLLING PLACES [Jonathan H. Adler]
A friend who recently moved to southeastern Pennsylvania offers this morning report aobut his voting experience:

Historically, I have voted in northern Virginia (where I lived for 10 years). I was always impressed by the fairness of the process, even when I knew most of the poll workers favored one party (the Democrats in Arlington and Falls Church, where I lived). Recently, I moved to eastern Pennsylvania and registered to vote. What I found at my polling place this morning stunned me. My area of Montgomery County, PA is heavily Democratic, and Norristown is a Democratic stronghold. So I expected to be a little out of place, but this was ridiculous.

My polling place was the Union Hall of Laborers Local 135 in Norristown, PA. Honestly, a union hall. All my voting life (the last 17 years) I have voted in public buildings: schools, community centers, fire halls. Never a place so partisan as a union hall.

There were no signs denoting the hall as a voting place (unless you count the 80 or so signs on and around the hall for Kerry-Edwards and sundry other Democrats). But, the building was adorned with a large (8' x 8' est.) "Laborers for Kerry" banner. It was bright red (of course). A similar sign was inside on a glass window facing voters while they waited to vote.

Councilman Darden (D-Montgomery County, not up for election) greeted voters at the door and introduced himself to just about everyone. He handed out helpful sample Democratic ballots to voters waiting in line. He wandered the halls of the building talking with voters and talking with campaign staff on his cell phone. Other Democratic campaigners handed out yellow sample ballots to voters waiting in line. Kerry-Edwards campaign signs flanked the doorway to the polling place.

I am not an election law attorney, so I have no idea if this is permissible under PA law. But, I worked the polls in VA once and almost all of this would have been illegal under VA law.

Frankly, I was ashamed at the nakedly partisan atmosphere at my polling place. Maybe this is how most people vote in this country?

I voted this morning at a church in the heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, but we voted in a church, and the boundaries for electioneering were clearly marked.
Posted at 10:41 AM

YOUTH VOTERS, FAKE VOTERS ETC, FROM O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Jonah,

I don't think we need to be concerned with the new "Rock the Vote" voters, and not for the usual "lazy and apathetic" reasons but because they've never voted before and may be intimidated by the whole process. I'm not saying intimidation is by any means a good thing, but the Democrats made the whole challenger issue a giant brouhaha. The publicity they created alone did more damage to their cause than anything a challenger could do in a polling location.

A friend registered at a "Rock the Vote" event and told me she wouldn't be voting. I asked why and she replied that she'd never voted before and was afraid she'd mess something up or look like an idiot. After reassuring her, she will be voting (and for Bush!) but how many others like her are out there?

Also, I've been volunteering for the campaign calling voters and such. I called a "James Brown" on Sunday (wrong number, obviously) and we're finding a lot of those in general. Not the fabulous names like Mary Poppins (voter registrations for crack in Defiance, OH!) but we'll call and ask for Sam Johnson and be told that there's no one there by that name but it is the Johnson's and they've lived there 20 years and had the same phone number and have never heard of "Sam." Someone went through the phone book and registered correct addresses, phone numbers and last names but fictitious first names.

Of course my polling place was busier than I've ever seen it before. I think turnout will be very high but I'm cautiously optimistic Bush will carry Ohio.

The Corner is like crack and I can't believe I'm going to volunteer today and will be away from it. Keep up the great work!

Posted at 10:37 AM

FRONTLINE REPORTS [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm still going to post them from time to time, but I'm going to slow it down. The anecdotal stuff can be misleading and besides my email box is filling up with two kinds of email: "Hey my lines were short!" and "Hey, my lines were really, really long!" That's it. Also, reports from base states really aren't that exciting. So unless you've got a really important story to tell, please hold off. It's going to be a long day.
Posted at 10:32 AM

BELLY OF THE MICHIGAN BEAST [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Voted in Ann Arbor this morning. Polls opened at 7:00 and I was there at 6:55. NEVER seen a poll line that long and I always vote at 7:00. It took 45 minutes to get to the booth. It was the longest 45 minutes of my life: listening to the insufferable liberal Ann Arborites were chatting with each other. Comments like this by an excited mother: "I spoke to my son in Portland last night, and, guess what?, Oregon is now a blue state!" Please.

This is truely solidly Kerry country, so I was depressed by the large eager turnout. The people seemed *so* self satisfied, like they were doing their part to save the world by getting up early to vote for Kerry.

My sense is that Michigan is definitely going for Kerry.

Posted at 10:28 AM

DIRTY POOL IN NH [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Jonah - I haven't voted yet, but will after work. (Republicans have jobs.) But I saw a few signs on my way to work today in NH near Portsmouth that show how desperate Kerry's people are. There were several signs along the road - they weren't out yesterday - that appeared to be Bush-Cheney signs. Same logo, colors ,etc. Beneath the names was a phrase - "A sales tax is a fair tax" and "Courage to ban stem cell research" . These are clearly phony signs meant to sway voters in NH. They had to go out last night, because had they gone out earlier, Bush supporters would have removed them. Pretty dirty pool by people who can't win votes on the merits of their positions.

Posted at 10:24 AM

CUTE [KJL]
A reader informs: "My son, who is in second grade, brought home an informational sheet on the two presidential candidates. It is published by 'Weekly Reader' and it lists John Kerry's favorite children's book as 'Robin Hood'. "
Posted at 10:19 AM

DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER PREDICTS BUSH VICTORY [Cliff May]
“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.

But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.
Posted at 10:12 AM

SPEAKING OF O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]

Several readers have asked why I keep spelling it out that way: O-Hi-O. Two reasons really. First, I always remembered the Looney Tunes with Elmer Fudd and Bugs doing a vaudeville routine where Elmser asks "What's high in the middle and round on both ends?" The answer: "O-Hi-O" as he jabs and slaps at Bugs. Or something like that. He eventually sprays him with a seltzer bottle.

Also, in my head I always remember that Pretenders song where every syllable in O-Hi-O is pronounced.

I went back to Ohio But my city was gone There was no train station There was no downtown Southtown it had disappeared All my favorite places My city had been pulled down Reduced to parking spaces Ay! Oh! Where did you go, Ohio? I went back to Ohio But my family was gone I stood on the back porch There was nobody home I was stunned and amazed My childhood memories Saw this world past Like the wind thorugh the trees Ay! Oh! Where did you go, Ohio?

Posted at 10:06 AM

RE: PHILLY FRAUD [Cliff May]
Now on Drudge:

VOTES FOUND ON MACHINES IN PHILLY, BEFORE POLLS OPEN
Before voting even began in Philadelphia -- poll watchers found nearly 2000 votes already planted on machines scattered throughout the city... One incident occurred at the SALVATION ARMY, 2601 N. 11th St., Philadelphia, Pa: Ward 37, division 8... pollwatchers uncovered 4 machines with planted votes; one with over 200 and one with nearly 500... A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day... INCIDENT: 292 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 7/7: ADDRESS: 122 W. Erie Ave., Roberto Clemente School, Philadelphia, Pa.; INCIDENT: 456 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 12/3; ADDRESS: 5657 Chew Ave., storefront, Philadelphia, Pa... Developing...

Posted at 09:54 AM

LONG DAY IN O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
From Dave in Columbus:

Here's the scoop from Columbus (Ohio.) If you remember yesterday I told you leaving the downtown was wild, Bush and Kerry singholders all over the place. However, the Bush people had the better locations to swing neighberhoods and suburbs while the Kerry people were posted by off ramps and streets heading to the more liberal "urbane' areas they will win anyway. As far as the voting this morning. My wife and I waited an hour to vote and we live in a strong W area. Other W area people reported the same. My secretary and some others in the office that live in strong Kerry areas also waited an hour or so to vote. Here's the deal. No one has ever waited to vote before. Either everyone is voting now or this will be the record turnout everyone predicted. That having been said, friends of mine both at GOP HQ and Dem HQ are ecstatic both laying out convincing arguments and statistics of why that works for them. I am still predicting a W victory, but it's going to be wild! Dave

Posted at 09:54 AM

VOTE FOR GEORGE BUSH [Robert P. George]

Dear ______ :

I could not agree with you more about who must win this election! I just returned from the polls where I enthusiastically cast my ballot for George W. Bush.

I am not the Robert George who wrote the anti-Bush article for The New Republic. That is Robert A. George, an editorial page editor for the New York Post. I am Robert P. George, a professor at Princeton. Needless to say, the confusion this has caused has been a misery to me. I have had dear friends write or call in anguish for fear that I have taken leave of my senses . Even less welcome are the valentines of congratulation I've received from liberal colleagues.
Well, I'll survive this little episode. What matters is that the people of the United States return George W. Bush to office.

Yours faithfully,
Robert P. George

-----Original Message----- From:

Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2004 7:01 AM

To: rgeorge@Princeton.EDU

Subject: Vote for George Bush


Dear Prof. George,

I don't know if you can imagine my shock when I saw the TNR cover proclaiming an article by you about why you can't vote for George Bush. I haven't had the opportunity to read the article, but something called me to write to you this morning, even though I feel it is futile.

Let me put it simply the way I see it. A vote today for anyone but George Bush today is a vote for evil. It's that simple.

No, President Bush is not perfect, and I don't agree with all he has done. But to sit home or to vote for Kerry, is to cooperate with evil--to let the terrorists win, to allow embryos to be killed in or outside the womb, to rob the American people of their money, to promote immorality.

John Kerry is unprincipled, a coward, a liar, an opportunist. He betrayed our country and his fellow soldiers in VietNam. He misled fools like me into thinking that the war there was unnecessary and fulll of atrocities. He got three purple hearts without spending a day in the hospital. I truly fear for our nation if he is elected.

Maybe I misread the cover I saw. I pray so. If not, please rethink, pray, and VOTE FOR GEORGE BUSH TODAY!

Sincerely yours,

[Here my correspondent gives her name.]

Posted at 09:53 AM

HUDAYBIYAH, SULLIVAN ETC [Jonah Goldberg]
There are a lot of non-election issues to be discussed. For examples, many readers want to know why I am "obsessed" with arguing with Andrew Sullivan. Others claim I completely bollixed the history of the treaty of Hudayibah in yesterday's G-File. Well, there's plenty of time for all that later.
Posted at 09:52 AM

ESCAPE! [Jack Fowler]
Kerry wins. Bush wins. Whoever wins, whoever loses, you’ll need a vacation next year to decompress from the madness of 2004. You’ll deserve a Mother of All Vacations vacation—like the National Review 2005 British Isles Cruise. Give yourself something to look forward to: 11 glorious days and nights (July 10-21) on Crystal Cruise’s super-luxurious Symphony, in the company of Bill Buckley, Robert Bork, Peggy Noonan, Larry Kudlow, Paul Johnson, David Pryce-Jones, Kate O’Beirne, Rich Lowry, Jay Nordlinger, and John O’Sullivan. Visiting London/Dover, Waterford, Dublin, Liverpool, Belfast, Edinburgh, and St. Peter Port in Guernsey. What a trip! Sign up today (after you vote for You Know Who) at www.nrcruise.com.
Posted at 09:48 AM

REPUBLICANS VOTE EARLY [Jonah Goldberg]
Isn't that the conventional wisdom?
Posted at 09:43 AM

SHUT UP [KJL]
"I was a disenfranchised voter," P Diddy on CNN this morning. Bill Hemmer, fortunately didn't let him get away with that stupidity. Hate Rock the Vote.
Posted at 09:43 AM

PA FRONTLINE [Jonah Goldberg]

From Pottstown PA:

Jonah,
I wasn't too comforted today. My Ward is heavy Democrat in an otherwise Republican County. I stood in line for twenty minutes or so (This at about &:30AM) and was #96. YIKES! Lots of Kedwards signs. People talking about getting a "phone call from President Clinton".

I hope the rest of the country hasn't drunk whatever Kool-Aid these people did.

Posted at 09:38 AM

RELAX. [Shannen W. Coffin]
My sister-in-law Chrissy has been a nervous wreck for the better part of the last month. I suspect I'll get at least three calls from her today asking whether Bush is going to win. But I also suspect that those of you checking the Corner 400 times today share her angst. So to Chrissy and the rest, relax. Go vote and tell your friends to vote. Ask your Dem friends to babysit your kids (until about 8 pm). We're gonna be fine. It'll be close, but Bush will win Ohio and Florida and after the 8 weeks of litigation, all will right again.
Posted at 09:37 AM

IN DEFENSE OF KERRY [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader, who must feel so dirty...

Jonah

I think you should give Kerry a pass on this one. I have hazel eyes. I know this because my mother told me. I have no idea what color hazel is, but all my life I’ve been told my eyes were sometimes blue sometimes brown. Maybe they’re like mood rings. Anyway I can’t believe I just wrote in defending Kerry.

Your hazel eye guy.

Posted at 09:37 AM

YES! [KJL]
Just IMed to me: " The Constitution should have a warning label: "If elections last more than 4 months - see a doctor."
Posted at 09:36 AM

AWESOME [Jonah Goldberg]
A reader informs me he wrote me in for DC Representative. I know it's pretty late for me to announce my candidacy, but if anyone wants to cast a protest vote my way, feel free. If called, I shall serve.
Posted at 09:36 AM

MARYLAND VOTING REPORT [Cliff May]
In my very leafy and very Democratic Maryland neighborhood, the lines were long.

One car had a bumper sticker reading: “Clinton lied about sex. Bush lies about everything else.” I gave that argument the consideration it merited, but in the end it was not sufficient to push me back into the “undecided” column.

A Time magazine reporter was right in front of me on line. I toyed with idea of suggesting that since our votes would cancel each other out we might as well leave. But a sense of civic duty unexpectedly came over me and I restrained myself.

As it turned out, those manning the polls (person-ing the polls?) did a remarkably good job of crowd control and it took no more than a half hour for me to get to the electronic voting booth. I noted in a loud voice to the Time reporter that I also had found it surprisingly quick and easy to cast ballots at the three other polling places I had visited this morning.

On C-Span, I heard a Kerry supporter say that she saw some men in uniform, rolled down her car window and yelled: “Ho, ho, hey, hey, how many kids did you kill today?” Struck me as rather retro but I’m sure it warmed the cockles of Michael Moore’s heart if he heard it (and if he has both a heart and cockles).

I’ll be reading the Horserace Blog today. (If Jay Cost’s predictions turn out to be right, how about we throw a party for him?)

I pledge to drink only branch water during the day, nothing stronger till the sun is over the yardarm. Or maybe a bit later than that. I’m scheduled to be on the BBC and Sky News tonight. My colleague here at FDD, Walid Phares, is scheduled to be on Al Jazeera. (Yes, Al Jazeera.)
Posted at 09:35 AM

ATHENS, OHIO VOTING... [Jonah Goldberg]

From an untenured prof who wishes to remain anonymous:

Jonah,

Just voted in Athens, OH, a Democratic stronghold in this state. Lines
at my polling place weren't long, and it took my wife and me only 10
minutes to get through line and vote for Bush. A colleague who lives
in the country outside Athens just walked in and said that she was
first in line at her polling place at 8:30 AM, and I noticed is that
there were not (as of 7:00 AM) visible lines at Ohio University's
Convocation Center, where most of the students and many Athenians vote.
There may end up being a massive young voter turnout, but it wasn't
evident this morning, despite two visits to the university from Michael
Moore within the last month. I do know that there have been a lot of
ads on the local stations denouncing Republicans for trying to deprive
students their votes and announcing on-campus sites where students can
cast provisional ballots.

Posted at 09:31 AM

MILWAUKEE VOTING...MILDLY ENCOURAGING [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Just got back from voting in Milwaukee. Polls had been open for about an hour and fifteen minutes before I cast my vote--and mine was only the 63rd of the morning. The whole process took about 15 minutes, 5 of which were occupied by moving my car because the school's janitor yelled at me. This is downtown, where Marquette's neighborhood ends and some of the 'less post' parts of town begin--urban poor and college students--dem territory. And no wait to vote. In Wisconsin. It's going to be a good day.

Posted at 09:29 AM

DRUDGE/PHILLY [Jonah Goldberg]
Drudge is reporting that the vote machines already had votes recorded on 'em when the polls opened in Philly. No follow-up story yet.
Posted at 09:17 AM

THIS IS ENCOURAGING.... [Jonah Goldberg]

Purely anecdotal, from a reader:

Jonah,

The weather's beautiful, wish you were here. I live in an affluent,
very-left neighborhood in Pittsburgh's East End, very leafy and quiet and
bordering Oakland, home of Pitt and CMU. Lots of rich lefties, mixed with
students and professors. Of course, we also have Elsie Hillman and Richard
Scaife. Oh yeah, and Paul O'Neill. Kerry signs are everywhere. Just no
voters. I walked up to my polling place (I didn't vote. I'm waiting for my
wife when she gets home from work.) and the only people there were two
middle aged matrons in sweaters and tweed, I swear to God, like Talbot's had
a sale circa 1985, sitting at a MoveOne table. The incongruity made my head
feel like when I eat too much ice cream.

Remember, this is the land of St. Teresa. Pittsburgh is a long-time
Democratic stronghold, and I would have thought that more voters would be
out for their man. Both my family and my wife's family are rabidly
supporting Kerry. Go figure. We are the only Bush voters. Every last soul in
our families vote, so nothing new there, but I am surprised at the so far
light turnout. Ledeen may just have a point.

Posted at 09:15 AM

HEY... [Jonah Goldberg]
Kathryn - since nothing's going to be clear for hours why don't we all just take the day off and go to the movies? I'm sure the readers would understand.
Posted at 09:12 AM

HOME ALONE [Stanley Kurtz]
And now for the really big news of the day. The Arts section of today’s New York Times has a great story about Home Alone America, a new book you’re going to be hearing a lot about. Home Alone America is by Mary Eberstadt, and as the Times says, it “fires a new salvo in the Mommy Wars.” Check out the cover photo (pictured in the article), which clearly freaked out the reporter. I’ll have much more to say about Home Alone America after the election–as will plenty of other folks. For now, suffice it to say that Home Alone America is a superb and important book. The Times story is as positive as a story for this sort of book could ever be in The New York Times. That’s a real accomplishment for Eberstadt, but the truth is, the Times story doesn’t begin to do the book justice. I strongly suggest that you buy it.
Posted at 09:10 AM

KERRY'S LYING EYES [Jonah Goldberg]
I thought readers were joking when they said ol' nuance eyes put "hazel....sometimes blue" on his hunting license application. But they were serious. From the October 18, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service by Thomas Fitzgerald:

Later, Kerry stopped at the Village Grocery in Buchanan, Ohio, to drop $140 on a nonresident hunting license with a wetlands habit stamp so that he can hunt ducks on a return to Ohio later this week. He spelled his name, gave his Boston address and described his eyes as "hazel." Kerry paused, adding, "Blue, some days. Does it have 'blue, some days'?" he asked the clerk filling out his application on a computer.

Posted at 09:09 AM

ANOTHER MURDER IN HOLLAND [Rod Dreher]
The Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh has been murdered, and the suspect is a Muslim. He had received death threats after having made a film critical of radical Islam with Ayan Hirsaan Ali, a female Dutch politician who had renounced Islam and become a critic of it. A witness described a man wearing Islamic garb and a long beard having stood over the filmmaker and pumped shots into his body. Cops arrested a 26 year old Moroccan after a shootout. A Dutch friend writes this morning, "Now this country will swing massively to the Right to punish the government for not changing after Pim Fortuyn was murdered." Let this wake the nation up to the dangers from radical Islam within.
Posted at 09:07 AM

DOING MY BIT.... [Jonah Goldberg]
In New Hampshire. The Manchester Union Leader is running my syndicated column today. It appeared on NRO on Friday. It'd be cool if it changed some minds while people made their way to the booths this morning. But I have few illusions.
Posted at 09:05 AM

BUSH IN OHIO [KJL]
ABC is reporting that the president, who just voted in Texas, is heading to Ohio.
Posted at 09:05 AM

THE ELECTION [Jed Babbin]
The following is an e-mail I received from Wayne Simmons. Wayne, for those who don't know him, was a recruited out of the Navy in 1973 by the CIA and turned into a covert operator. Wayne ate, slept and drank with narco-terrorists and smugglers in the Caribbean, Europe, the Far East and Central Asia while gathering intel for the CIA and other "customers." He's one of those smart, tough guys who have been there and done that. His comments on the election are more than worthy of everyone's attention:

I have worked for six Presidents of the United States, numerous DCI's and DDO's, participated in countless ops and intel ops and have had more 9mm's pressed against my forehead than I can remember yet, I am more afraid and concerned today than when I sat at a table with narco terrorist's plotting to smuggle thousands of tons of heroin, cocaine, pot and weapons into the U.S. and slaughter anyone who tried to stop them. I remember the Church Commission. I remember being told how to run ops by members of congress who could not control crime in the states from which they had been elected. A Kerry aide recently said that if John Kerry is elected President of the United States, he will ask newly appointed and eminently qualified DCI Porter Goss to resign. We are at a time in the history of the U.S. when we face an enemy unlike any we have ever faced, a cult of resentment employing an asymmetric attack bent on the destruction of America and it's allies. An enemy determined to slaughter every man woman and child in the West and around the world. Forget for a moment that Kerry is the most liberal member of Congress, a Senator who will cut billions from our intel budgets and has worked his entire political career to decimate our military.

Imagine that Kerry could nominate men like Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern or Pat Eddington, members of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, a group of former CIA and intelligence analysts who have attacked President Bush and the CIA at every opportunity. They have been on the wrong side of every issue surrounding the war on terror and our war in Iraq and Afghanistan. These are men who believe they are smarter than President Bush, VP Chaney, Condolezza Rice, Sec. Rumsfeld, former DCI George Tenet and General Tommy Franks. These men and their followers fail to recognize the freedom given to tens of millions in Afghanistan and Iraq or the continued safety given to 260 million Americans every day since 9/11.

The repercussions against the U.S. if John Kerry should be elected President would be so devastating and far reaching that America would be more vulnerable than at any time in her history. We are in the midst of a full scale war on terror. This is not a political statement but a statement of fact backed up by reviewing the military and political records of John Kerry. Our enemy is praying for Kerry to be elected. I hope and pray that most Americans recognize these facts and do not allow America to fall prey to the forces of evil waiting to devour her should John Kerry be elected. Remember, CS Lewis wrote, "There is no neutral ground in the universe. Every square inch, every split second is claimed by God, and counterclaimed by Satan.”

Posted at 09:01 AM

KEEP THE BARS OPEN [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Wonder if anyone can top this one...

I'm in Newport News, Virginia. I head to my designated polling place, and got there a half hour or so before the 6AM start time. Already about 50-60 folks in line. Ended up standing pretty close to the 'no more campaigning' cut off line, right next to the Republican and Democratic tables passing out literature.

One woman in line asked if the school where we were voting was open of closed today. The Republican campaigner offered up that all the city schools are closed, because most are polling places. The guy right in front of me asked 'well are the bars closed today also?' No one seemed to know for sure, but the conversation came to an absolute halt when the Democratic campaign worker, a guy that looked to be in his 70s, sporting a Kerry/Edwards button piped up with -

"if they were it'd be a shame, cause you'd have to be about half drunk to vote for my candidate"

Several people in line agreed with his general observation, but it was so disorienting that nobody burst out laughing immediately.

Posted at 08:59 AM

BUCK UP [Jonah Goldberg]
If Bush wins every state he's even slightly ahead in -- according to the Realclearpolitics.com battleground state poll average -- he will win 300 electoral votes. That gives him a buffer of several states he could lose. For example he could lose Hawaii, Iowa and Wisconsin and still have 279. He could even lose Ohio and Wisconsin and get 270.
Posted at 08:57 AM

WISDOM FROM THE MASTER [Rick Brookhiser]
"There is no point in asking why Americans get caught up in the presidential election ritual even when the campaigns are obviously manipulative and the candidates are far from the best the country has to offer--just as it is pointless to inquire why ancient Romans accepted unquestioningly the divinations of soothsayers, or why tribal peoples believe in their totems, or why pentecostals have confidence in their healers. All rituals rest upon faith, not logic; all involve suspension of disbelief; and all seem as reasonable to the faithful as they seem absurd to unbelievers."

Forrest McDonald, The American Presidency
Posted at 08:56 AM

THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE... [Jonah Goldberg]
If Kerry wins, we should get everyone to start chanting "We're all Belgians now! We're all Belgians now!"
Posted at 08:47 AM

NOTE TO JEFF TAYLOR... [Jonah Goldberg]
The Amish do have cell phones.
Posted at 08:44 AM

E DAY [Michael Ledeen]
I will watch the news coverage today to see if my favorite election day urban legend reappears. As far back as I can remember, the morning stories all said "record turnout," and there were anecdotal accounts of long lines, huge crowds, etc. etc. But by evening, it was the usual percentage.

So far, it's holding to form.
Posted at 08:44 AM

IS KERRY FLIP-FLOPPING HIS EYE COLOR? [Jonah Goldberg]

Can we get some confirmation on this? From a reader:

Minor trivia, but indicative of how far he will go. On the front of a Toronto paper here today, is a close up of Jean Kerry, with striking BLUE EYES. I was sure he had brown eyes,and then saw 10 minutes ago on PBS Buffalo/Toronto an old Kerry TV interview being shown and his eyes were very brown. Twit.

Posted at 08:41 AM

FRONTLINE REPORT: OHIO [Jonah Goldberg]

I should note that by definition the people who show up at the polls in the rain are people who haven't been dissuaded by the rain. Anyway, from a reader:

Jonah,

Well, the rain isn’t keeping people from voting in Cleveland. I just got back from the polls and waited about 45 minutes. I considered putting an open offer out to anyone there just to cancel my vote and we could walk out, arm in arm, skipping and singing show tunes. Believe me, there was a near 100% chance that ANYONE who would’ve taken up my offer would’ve canceled my vote.

I have one question, though. As a Conservative and a Republican, I’m obviously very judgemental and intolerant of everyone who is not like me. I’ve pegged nearly every possible demographic and how they vote. There is one group, though, that I haven’t yet nailed down: Those wearing pocket protectors and short-sleeve dress shirts. These people don’t strike me as going one way or another. Which way do they go, Jonah?

A side note…it was amazing how personally many of the people in line took the whole ID checking thing. One particularly obnoxious person, who talked to all of us for the entire 45 minutes, expressed his feelings eloquently.

“I’m not having some unofficial unpaid Republican volunteer asking me for my G.D. driver’s license! I mean, why would they need that? They just need to let us all vote and stay out of our lives. Why are they doing this to us?! (emphasis added)”

It was a touching performance. I was directly behind this guy. Shockingly, when we got to the sign-in table, his name was not on the list. Mine was, and I just moved here a few months ago. I didn’t find it too difficult to get registered! It’s going to be a long day…

Thanks for listening…

Posted at 08:37 AM

IN LINE TO VOTE NOW [Rich Lowry]
I hear it could take an hour all told. And these aren't Bush voters here in downtown Manhattan!
Posted at 08:34 AM

THIS WOULD HAVE THE WRONG EFFECT ON PARENTS [KJL]
An e-mail:

I am an art teacher in Tennesee. We just had our mock student election where Bush won by a landslide. The funny thing is that one of my students just rushed up to me upon hearing the results over the intercom and said, "John Kerry said he was going to make us go to school on Saturdays! Swear to god!"

Posted at 08:27 AM

CAN WE HAVE A SHOW OF HANDS? [Shannen W. Coffin]
Good point from a reader: "I'm in PA and concerned that if my state goes to Kerry, then bin Laden won't know that I voted for Bush. I wonder if he will at least take into account local returns or the popular vote to know that there are people in this state that will still want to see OBL become DOA."

ME: Perhaps all the embedded international observers can get the word back to him as to how you voted
Posted at 08:21 AM

LONG LINE, EASY VOTE [Tim Graham]
The wife and I went to vote at 6, and it took 10-15 minutes to get into the parking lot, 45 minutes overall. It seemed extra busy, but then, we didn't live in this county in 2000. And our DC-directed traffic is jammed up every day by 6:30. Even if turnout is heavy, Prince William County went for Bush last time by about 65-35.

It's always funny to vote with the Mrs., since she's afraid I'm going to go on some loud anti-Democrat bender and offend half the line. The real fear today was my weekly interview with WGST in Atlanta occurring in line, and then I would have to denounce Dan Rather in mixed company. Luckily, they rang just as I pulled the lever...
Posted at 08:18 AM

BTW [KJL]
Thune will win today.
Posted at 08:15 AM

FROM A DEAR FRIEND IN NEW ALBANY, OHIO [KJL]
"The line was already out the door when I arrived at the polling place at 6:20 am. It took me an hour to get through the line. " Hopefully they were all voting for the same person she was!!
Posted at 08:05 AM

THE GOVERNORS [John Hood]
Believe it or not, some politicos find it possible to look down their ballots a bit and consider the potential outcomes in state and local electoral contests. With regards to governors, Republicans go into the 2004 cycle with 28 vs. 22 for the Democrats. There are 11 gubernatorial races up for grabs, though it looks to me like six of these are essentially decided: three for the Rs and three for the Ds. The five remain matchups are:

***Gov. Joe Kernan (D) vs. Mitch Daniels (R) in Indiana. Likely GOP takeover.
***Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Matt Blount (R) in Missouri. Leaning GOP takeover.
***John Lynch (D) v. Gov. Craig Benson (R) in New Hampshire. Leaning GOP retention, unless a big Kerry wave materializes.
***Brian Schweitzer (D) v. Bob Brown (R) in Montana. Likely Democratic takeover.
***Christine Gregoire (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in Washington. Leaning Democratic retention.

So if my math is correct, these results would increase the Republican margin by 1, to 29 governorships. But confident prediction is impossible this year, as if that wasn’t already obvious.
Posted at 08:03 AM

OHIO MARKETS [KJL]
A reader points out: "There's a lot of pro-Bush movement in Ohio on tradesports." And, of course, there is Zogby, who gives W a 6-point lead....(I know, I know...)
Posted at 07:52 AM

LUNTZ ON OHIO [Rich Lowry]
Was a Kerry-is-going-to-win-Ohio guy. Now has shifted to Bush (just said on Fox), based on Zogby's final poll in the state.
Posted at 07:50 AM

OHIO [KJL]
Hate you're staking so much on Ohio, man (though it's legit). That's going to be close, and this year's Florida--fraud central. Whoever wins, the courts will determine, I fear.
Posted at 07:47 AM

SOME GOOD REASONS TO VOTE FOR BUSH [Jonah Goldberg]

Scroll down to the pics.

Posted at 07:38 AM

FLORIDA & OHIO, FLORIDA & OHIO, FLORIDA & OHIO [Rich Lowry]
I used to be a Bush-will-thread-the needle-guy, way back when--like yesterday. But I've soured on the upper Midwest. Maybe Bush can get Iowa, maybe. But it is much more likely winning scenario that he wins Florida and Ohio. That will pretty much do it, and he can forget about eking out Ohio replacement votes (with NH, IA and NM.) The Bush folks sound nervously confident about Ohio--a lot rides on it.
Posted at 07:36 AM

THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING [Jonah Goldberg ]

I do wish Kerry had said something like this a few days earlier:

"This is the choice, this is the moment of accountability for America," Kerry said. "It's a moment where the world is watching what you're going to do. All of the hopes and dreams of our country are on the line."

I don't want to overstate it, but Kerry really is the world's candidate. According to Kerry, the world is watching to see if we'll hold ourselves accountable for what we did wrong under Bush.

Posted at 07:34 AM

I JUST VOTED [Michael Graham]
I was at the polls when the opened at 6am. Took me about 30 minutes to vote, 10 of which was due to the person in front of me practicing their “Hooked on Phonics” at the voting machine reading the various ballot initiatives and referenda. Two wonderful things happened. First, I was asked to produce both photo I.D. and proof of address (hooray!), and there were partisan poll watchers from both teams who checked my name against their lists.

To some people, this would be “voter intimidation.” To me, it’s good government.

And for those who believe that touch-screen voting machines magically solve all problems, one of the five at my polling place went down in the first 25 minutes of voting this morning. I think I heard someone muttering “Control, alt, delete.”
Posted at 07:30 AM

IF I MUST [Andrew Stuttaford]
Bush wins 281-257. As always, my instincts are pushing me in an altogether more gloomy direction, but as I'm the sort of pessimist who is always mildly surprised to emerge alive from aeroplane turbulence, takeaway food and chance encounters with the music of Barbra Streisand this can, perhaps, be disregarded.

Or can it?

Posted at 07:04 AM

NEAT E-MAIL [KJL]
Kathryn,

I just realized that today is the anniversary of when I was first drawn to NRO. A long lost friend pointed this confused soul to look you up amidst the maelstrom of the 2000 election, and I’ve been hooked ever since. I wonder how many other readers started their addiction at the same time? Since then, I’ve read almost every word posted on NRO for the past 4 years, though it’s getting tougher the more ambitious you guys get. I watch every major political event with the TV on and my browser on NRO. Here’s to four more years!