If Thune and Bush win (!) – a bottle of Chianti of your choice to you and a subscription to NRODT for me and NROD as a gift to any deserving soul (again of your choice) from me.

It’s all that branch water talking…

KJL, The stem cell initiative may well be the most wildly misunderstood piece of legislation in American history. I work in Hollywood (roughly the same job as Rob Long) and everyone I work with was wildly supportive of the measure, and no one actually knew what the measure did. They didn't know how much money would be raised, who would get it, and how it would be repaid. But somehow the mighty stem cell became the thing you had to support if you're enlightened.

Things are looking very good in Ohio. With the exception of a few Appalachian counties, we’re running significantly ahead of where we were four years ago. For example, we lost Columbus County by 5,000 in 2000; we’re now ahead by 15,000. We’re also ahead by a couple of hundred votes in New Hampshire – and the worst parts of that state (for us) have already been counted. So we’re confident about both states.

25. The thought of looking at AWOL and his regime

Edited on Tue Nov-02-04 11:00 PM by JPace continue their dismantling of our country for another four years is so abhorant it makes one feel ill. Its like trying to kill a damed vampire....we shoot and shoot and the thing just keeps rising up and coming at you again.

Good day for Tom DeLay, as he will take out the top 5 D’s on his hit list. The diciest race for Republicans was CD 17, where incumbent Chet Edwards was perceived as having the edge over state Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth. However, Wohlgemuth leads the early vote by 2 points, with one smaller county from her state House district yet to report. The latest numbers show Edwards with a lead of nearly 1 point, but the only election-day vote to be counted is in the Waco sphere of influence. If Wohlgemuth gets any additional advantage out of Bryan/College Station today, she will likely win. Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charles Stenholm, and Martin Frost are all being blown out.

Down ballot also looks positive for Republicans. Despite Democrats’ efforts to wrap the DeLay-machine indictments around every Republican legislator’s neck, the GOP will gain seats in the Texas House and likely top the 90-seat threshold.

checked out the demounderground after your post, love this post from there "I turned off my cell after my husband called me freaking, he works nights. You would think since ALL of us know that the media is slanted to the right that they would do the same for the election."

KLO - Have been up since 0300 local watching the returns via the Internet. The Internet cafe's here are full of soldiers interested in the outcome. The mood is electric.

I just saw the e-mail you posted from another Pennsylvania voter regarding the Specter/Hoeffel race and I wanted to add one more strike against he incumbent. Yesteday the local NPR station was running a piece on him, and he defended himself against the charge that he votes overwhelmingly with the president by claiming that his voting record matches John Kerry's somewhere between 70-80% of the time.

This is the republican that Dubya spent political capital defending in the primary? I don't feel even a little bit bad about not voting for him. We'll be better off without him as the chair of the Judiciary Committee, and if the GOP can't make up the lost seat elsewhere in the country it's their own fault for throwing him in the face of their conservative base in Pennsylvania.

Right now, Florida, Ohio and New Jersey are all at 52-47% - so how come they called NJ immediately - and still haven't called these others? (More of theFlorida vote is in than NJ which is merely 80% in now).

I saw your post on Battlegrounders about the Hoeffel/Specter race. The only Republican I didn't vote for was Specter. I had been going back and forth about whether to vote for him, but the last straw was his pro-stem cell research ad with Michael J. Fox. The issue ranks fairly low for me, but given that the Democrats had been attacking Bush on it and the ad ends with "Arlen Specter (emphasis mine) gets it" it was the last straw (along with the reports of the Specter-Kerry signs). Particularly given that I had thought he was far ahead in the polls, and the ad would only hurt Bush.

I even told a friend from Taiwan about voting for Hoeffel, saying something along the lines "it doesn't matter since Specter's up by 10 or 20 points". Oh well, but then again it might actually be easier to get the judges through without Specter as the chair of the Judiciary Committee (assuming that we pick up several seats in the Senate).

The huge margins for Kerry in the exit polling led the Dems to call off the lawyers (I've heard Lockhart and Estrich say so on FNC). They say the system worked, so no need to sue.

Now that it looks like Bush is doing MUCH better than the exit polls, the Dems are caught flat-footed.

A Rovian strategy?

I’ve learned something about conservative commentators: You all are a bunch of nervous Nellies. Everything looks as though the glass is half empty when you should be saying it is half full.

I was a Democrat for a large part of my life then switched to Republican in 1980. I think you act as though the new found majority in the House and Senate is going to slip from your grasp.

Show some fortitude. Bush will win.

The more interesting suit seems to be the one in Hamilton County involving the provisional ballot fight using Bush Vs. Gore as the precedent. Spokesman for the Ohio Department of State says they will fight the lawsuit, but won't worry about it until after the election. Can't say if the individual filing the suit is a Dem because opensecrets.org is down due to high traffic. Of course, the Dems hinted that they'd use the provisional ballot issue in this state as the main hammer, but we thought it would come AFTER the election, not before. Ohio govt can be expected to fight vigorously that its provisional ballot handling is uniform and fair.

Ohio State Dept. also says that a record turnout of about 5.8 million people is expected. From the look at the early returns, that is not good for Kerry. McAuliffe is complaining that the long lines in Ohio are the fault of Republicans not installing enough voting machines. State of Ohio scoffs at that. McAullife says people are still waiting in line in Ohio, and now it's cold!!!! State of Ohio says that's odd, since the 3-hour long line in Franklin County (Columbus area) was dissolved instantly and painlessly when those outside were handed paper ballots to fill out. (Gee, who'd have thunk common sense would win out in Ohio. Clearly, this is no Florida). State has no trouble with it, but GOP is expected to appeal.

We’re...watching the election results with a young man from Iraq who is in the U.S. speaking to groups around the country about the situation in Iraq. He is here to thank Americans for his liberation. I just finished explaining the electoral vote system to him. He is sitting here with a map of the U.S. following the results with an intensity that brings a tear to my eye. Guess who he would be voting for.

We are feeling very confident about Florida. So are people on the ground there, who know a good deal about these things. Among the specific facts worth noting:

In DuVal County, our goal was to win by a 40,000 person margin. We’re now at a 60,000 person margin.

Most of the Panhandle counties are outstanding.

Eighty percent of Broward County is in. We expected to be down 200,000 -- and our worst case was that we would be down 300,000. The latest information is that we are down by 170,000.

In addition, Ohio looks increasing good for us. Reports from the ground are that people are very upbeat about turnout (for example, in places like Franklin Country).

Let me make a broader, and very significant, point. The media are now changing the models they are using to estimate where things stand. The actual votes underscored how flawed the exit polling data was – and so the media are making adjustments in where things stand. What does that specifically mean: The final exit polls had us down by five to six points in Wisconsin; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down three points in Iowa; the estimates now are that we are even. The exit polls had us down in New Mexico; the estimates now are that we are even.

The tide is turning in our direction. We aren’t ready to declare victory; but we ready to say that we feel very good about where things stand, and where things seem to be headed.

MIAMI The global implications of the U.S. election are undeniable, but international monitors at a polling station in southern Florida said Tuesday that voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways from the best global practices.

The observers said they had less access to polls than in Kazakhstan, that the electronic voting had fewer fail-safes than in Venezuela, that the ballots were not so simple as in the Republic of Georgia and that no other country had such a complex national election system.

"To be honest, monitoring elections in Serbia a few months ago was much simpler," said Konrad Olszewski, an election observer stationed in Miami by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

WASHINGTON - This was not the breakout year for young voters that some had anticipated. Fewer than one in 10 voters Tuesday were 18 to 24, about the same proportion of the electorate as in 2000, exit polls indicated. Still, with voter turnout expected to be higher overall, more young people appeared to have come out.

Kathryn:

I’m sure you’re bombarded by email around now, so sorry to add to your burden, but I wanted to pass something along from a friend working for the campaign in Ohio. They have apparently seen the network exit polls for the state and it has Kerry winning MEN in Ohio 51/49, and winning women 53/47. They say that based on their numbers the results for men in the exit polls are definitely wrong. They are very happy with their turnout in the state, and until they started seeing the network exit polls they were pretty confident of victory. The polls at first got them down, but now that they have looked at the poll closely, they again feel pretty good, because they believe the poll has serious problems.

Here is the exit poll for the state http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

Take it for what it’s worth, I can’t vouch for the claim, just passing it on.

This conservative anti-Kerry Dem is feeling a whole lot better than I did a few minutes ago. W is right where he needs to be in Ohio. The bulk of the early returns (9pm) were in two of the most pro-Kerry counties in the state Cuyahoga and Trumbull. In the few rural and Columbus suburban counties W is right where he needs to be. Could it be those blasted exit polls are screwier than that screwy rabbit. Elmer get yer gun! Dave from Columbus

the returns are suggesting Bush has a chance and that Bush could win the popular vote...

we're getting more out of our red states --- a lot more....

and these exit polls appear to have been too Democratic.

Watch NH... If it stays close late, then we're in solid shape...

The Ohio Dem party did not file suit to keep the polls open longer. They filed suit to allow those waiting in lines alleged to be 3 to 4 hours long (they have affidavits taken from people in line in the 5 p.m. hour), asking the court to allow them to be handed provisional or paper ballots (not sure what that second method is supposed to accomplish). Sources tell me that the judge was sympathetic to the argument and was going to grant it.

Also, a woman named Audrey Schoring filed suit in two counties, using Bush vs. Gore as a precedent, argued that Blackwell and Hamilton counties (bush country, I think) were not using a uniform standard to judge and count provisional ballots. I'm Googling and looking up donation records right now to see if she's a Dem operative, or, GASP!, a GOP activist.

Either there is a huge methodological flaw in the exit polling data, or there has been a transformative change in the nature of the electorate. The former is far more likely. Which means that much of the media's narrative of the election so far looks to be very much wide of the mark. Imagine that.

Let me explain what I mean. Here are several data points that indicate that something is amiss on the matter of exit polling:
**In 2000, George W. Bush lost the white Catholic vote in Wisconsin. This time, he appears to be winning it by 10 percentage points. Yet I believe the exit polls have the white Catholic vote shrinking from more than one-third of the population to less than one-quarter. There's no reasonable explanation for it.
***In North Carolina, the exit polls show the voting population to be 63 percent women. That is obviously far too large – and it explains why the exit polls have the President up by only one in North Carolina. That figure won't stand up when the votes are counted; the President will carry North Carolina by a wide margin.
*** The exit polls have President Bush up in South Carolina by only seven points. He will win South Carolina by more than seven; you can take that to the bank. The Latino population makes up a larger percentage of Florida's population than in 2000. The President is carrying the Latino population in Florida by a greater margin than four years ago. Yet the exit polls have Latinos comprising a far smaller voting percentage of the population than four years ago.
***In Ohio, the exit polls show the vote among men to be 50-50. The final votes will almost surely be higher than that. ***President Bush is winning 43 percent of the Hispanic vote -- which, if that remains, means he should win re-election.
***Florida is a state in which you can measure absentee ballots early to get a good idea of where things stand. Right now we are dominating in absentee ballots in Florida. To be precise: we are leading by 154,000 votes – while in 2000, we won by only 98,000. So we are in much better shape this election that the last on this significant matter.
It’s worth recalling that in 2000, the final exit polls were significantly different than the actual vote count in at least seven states. And 2000 may be seen as the high-water mark for exit polling, compared to this year.
Something is clearly amiss. Indeed, this election may be a dagger at the heart of exit polling. The larger point is that we believe the President will not only carry Florida and Ohio; he has a real shot at carrying New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That doesn't mean he'll carry all those states -- but it does mean that some of the post-mortems you are seeing on television and elsewhere are wildly irresponsible. I should add that when you talk to some very smart political reporters, they will tell you that they are very suspicious of the exit polling data sets. And they should be. We've gone through a similar situation once before, in 2000. You'd think people would learn. But you would be wrong.
The bottom line is that people need to exercise reasonable judgment and patience; watching some political commentators take to the airwaves before 7:00 p.m. to interpret the results of the election is like watching housepainters pretending to be portrait artists.
There is an obvious solution to all this: people -- especially reporters and commentators -- should wait until the votes are cast and counted. And until that happens, they should withhold making judgments based on information that is at the very least suspect.

K-Lo,

Word is that Dems are going to file suit to keep the polls open later in Ohio, or possibly pass out paper ballots, because the lines have been too long today. Don't know if they want to do that statewide, but it appears that the suit will ask for the extension in select counties (guess which ones....hint, not in Bush Country). Got confirmation from the Ohio Dem Party, and a Republican lawyer in Cleveland plugged into the legal efforts said they are prepared to counter it.

Looks like the real lawsuits have started before the polls closed, and we might have a Missouri 2000 on our hands.

My Dad makes the world's best Manhattans - vermouth, plus rye whiskey, plus a bit of cherry juice. Don't listen to anyone who tells you to leave out the cherr juice. Dad makes a jar of Manhattans for each Easter, Thanksgiving and Christmas. I left an unfinished jar in my refrigerator for half a year - took it out, and ate the cherries, which had been marinating in the Manhattan. Bliss!

Better make a big jar, I fear.[ Because it will be a long night]