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Wednesday, November 03, 2004

MODERATES & LIBERALS FWIW [Jonah Goldberg]

I am actually a big believer in labels and I've written many times that I think people who say they don't believe in labels are essentially ashamed, embarrassed or otherwise uncomfortable with admitting they are liberals of one stripe or another. In Washington I meet scores of successful professionals (particularly journalists) who swear they are moderates or fiscally conservative but socially liberal. Let's leave the second part for another day since we've batted that around in here so many times. But these self-described moderates are very, very often simply liberals but who have a real problem saying so.

For these and related reasons I'm a bit dubious that all of these people who tell exit-pollsters that they're moderates are, in fact, moderates. Many probably are. Also there's the whole dull but complex issue of figuring out what a moderate actually is. But I'd bet a statistically super-significant chunk are just too ashamed to admit they're liberals.


Posted at 06:15 PM

THE JOY OF POLITICS [John Derbyshire]
I'm getting a lot of e-mails from Republicans who are *happy*. Happy happy H-A-P-P-Y! It's a wonderful thing to behold.

Posted at 06:09 PM

HOW CAN BRITS STAND IT [Michael Graham]
I'm listening to C-SPAN's simulcast of the Beeb, and in five minutes I've heard it called the "so-called War On Terror," and Americans described as "just as religious in their way as Middle Easterners are." I've heard Americans accused of killing more Iraqis than Saddam and the terrorists.

All in FIVE minutes! And you Brits pay TAXES for this?

You've got harbors. We can loan you the tea. Why don't you do something?

Posted at 06:08 PM

RE: JONAH'S UNFORTUNATE LAPSE [Rod Dreher]
"Texas, Shmexas"?! Boys, git a rope.

Posted at 06:06 PM

MORAL OF THE STORY [Rod Dreher]
Over at The New Republic campaign blog, Michelle Cottle writes: According to the voter breakdown that CNN is currently hawking, the top reason that Bush voters gave for supporting their guy was not the economy, not Iraq, not even the war on terrorism. It was "moral values." That's right, with American soldiers dying overseas, Al Qaeda still gunning for us at home, the deficit spiraling, the gap between rich and poor growing, Social Security on the brink, etc., etc., Bush's reelection was driven by a bunch of folks freaked out over the thought of gay marriage and stem-cell research. God save the republic.

Um, sorry, but the prospect of having a basic and ancient social institution redefined for the nation by judicial fiat is a really big deal to a lot of us. As is the moral question of the exploitation of human life. Basic civilizational questions.

Posted at 06:05 PM

SCHEIBER, HE EXPLAINED [Jonah Goldberg]

Everyone seems to think Scheiber means this. Sounds fair to me:

I "think" what they mean is simply Bush made sure his base showed up. If the 4 million missing Christians theory was true, then, he just needed to get them to vote.

I am no linguist, so, I don't know if the term electorate means the group
eligible to vote, or those that actually voted. If the latter, then their
statement makes sense. If the former, then I understand your feeling that
it is a screwy one.

I DO think the country got more conservative on 9/11, easily a 5% swing.
But, you can't discount the effect that the Christians turning out for Bush
had.


Posted at 06:03 PM

NEWSPAPER STORY [Michael Ledeen]
You wanna hear a really great newspaper story? Of course you do. Yesterday afternoon in Rome, my buddy Giuliano Ferrara--the editor of the wonderful "il Foglio"--pondered his front page for Wednesday. He didn't know anything about the electoral outcome since it was late morning here and we were still voting and there weren't even exit polls.

What to do? Well, he could duck the whole question, but, as he told his readers, that would have been professionally cowardly since this was the biggest story of our generation. So he went for it, and this morning in Rome--that is to say, at one in the morning our time, even before Michael Barone and his guys at Fox had awarded Ohio to Bush--"il Foglio" emerged with a nine-column headline in bright red:

WHY GEORGE W. BUSH WON THE ELECTIONS Clear victory of the president who cuts taxes and wages war.

And the rest of the paper explains--very well, by the way--how and why it happened.

Eat your heart out, Zogby.

Posted at 05:43 PM

I DON'T GET IT [Jonah Goldberg]

Noam Scheiber writes (and Sullivan posts):

Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 -- a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base.

Me: I'm not being cute. I can't link to his full piece and I'm tired. But I don't get it. How did Bush "make sure" that conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate? Couldn't it be the case that electorate is becoming more conservative?


Posted at 05:37 PM

RE: THE ENVOY [Jonah Goldberg]

(apologies to Warren Zevon).

Fine Andrew, go ahead and make sensible points. Hmm....how about Ambassador Zell Miller?

Or, more seriously, how about Ambassador Giuliani?


Posted at 05:34 PM

MICHAEL MOORE [KJL]
is mad and morose

Posted at 05:20 PM

AMBASSADOR KERRY? [Andrew Stuttaford]

Jonah, I do think that it’s important that Bush be seen to be a good winner and I do know that you were only sort of serious, but Kerry is not the guy to send to Europe. To be effective over there, any such envoy would have to be known to have the ear of the president. Somehow I don’t think that Kerry is that guy.


Posted at 05:14 PM

RE: UNITER [Jonah Goldberg]

Yeah, the more I think about it the more I think approach is not only smart but right (though for the record, Mass Governors no longer appoint Senators).

At minimum putting the pressure on Dems to make the war bipartisan makes sense. Put the ball in their court. Extend a hand. If the dems slap it, fine. Make hay. But I do agree with the pro-Kerry, pro-warriors that one appealing aspect of a Kerry win would have been making the Dems accountable on the war. I simply thought Kerry wouldn't rise to the challenge and that the price to be paid and risk involved in giving him a shot wasn't worth it. But that doesn't mean getting the Dems more on board wouldn't good for the Dems, the GOP, the war and the country.


Posted at 05:12 PM

PUBLIC GETS IT RIGHT [Rich Lowry]
One reason I thought Bush was going to win all year long--with bouts of nervousness--is that the American public gets big questions right. On balance, this president just flat-out deserved to be re-elected, especially when compared to the alternative. It would have been distressing had the public rewarded the sort of (mostly) cheap, opportunistic, demagogic attacks to which he was subjected.

Posted at 05:08 PM

UNITER [Rich Lowry]
Jonah, you are absloutely right. Create the Kerry Commission on European Diplomacy. Have Joe Biden in and out of the WH constantly, because his ideas are so irresistibly thoughtful. Appoint any high-profile Dem you can find to ambassadorships. Rip ideas out of the Kerry campaign playbook--bigger special forces, more spending on decent education in the Islamic world--and extravegently credit Kerry for advancing them so persuasively in this campaign. Use every soft-sell tactic possible and every bi-partisan blandishment out there to create more of a bi-partisan, consensus feel around the war on terror. Might not work, but every little bit will help.

Posted at 05:08 PM

"FANNEL HALL" [Jonah Goldberg]

From Poppa G:


First order of business for Bush should be changing the spelling of Faneuil Hall to Fannell Hall. As it stands now, the only American who can pronounce it as it originally was intended is the losing candidate, the French-speaking John Kerry. This would be followed, in the course of Bush's new term, by the substitution of K for Q in all those Arab names (Qadaffi to Kadaffi, the Qaaba to the Kaaba)) and the the elimination of the double A in the Middle east (Baath becomes Bath). Part of the confusion in Middle East politics is our inability to pronounce the names of people and places, which is why sometimes civilians are inadvertently killed. It is the same problem that keeps black Africa divided. How can you get on the phone in the Congo and say I want to speak with Mr. Bmdgrasa? How many times a day must the question be asked Would you spell that, please?, before giving up? We'll get to the Chinese names at some later date. (I'm assuming that Faneuil was a French name, but I could be wrong and it was a Gaelic name, in which case I say, "Whatever.")


Posted at 04:49 PM

BUSH SHOULD BE A UNITER [Jonah Goldberg]
And I'm even kind of serious about this. Why not ask John Kerry to be his special envoy to Europe to ask for help and assistance from France, Germany etc. It puts Kerry's money where his mouth is (or at least some of it), makes Bush look magnanimous, Kerry gets to speak French at some nice hotel conferences and -- hey -- the Dems lose a Senate seat in Mass.

Posted at 03:52 PM

TEXAS, SHMEXAS [Jonah Goldberg]
Folks, I have nothing against thanking Texas. I thought that was right and good. Heck I like Texas (one of the best summers of my childhood was spent in Temple, Texas). But i thought it was a weird way to end the speech. It just struck me as a discordant note to strike when you're trying to be a uniter of the whole United States.

Posted at 03:45 PM

CAN I VOTE FOR TONY BLAIR TOO? [KJL]
He's speaking now about Bush victory.

Posted at 03:33 PM

GO MIDDLE? [John J. Miller]
I try to avoid watching ABC News, but somehow my TV was stuck on that channel for Bush. Afterwards, Stephanopoulous and Halperin came on and both explained how Bush now has a mandate to go toward the middle. Halperin even labeled Bush a lame duck. Puh-leeze! Today, of all days, our president is anything but lame. And he won't be waddling over to the officially-approved political positions of ABC News anytime soon.

Posted at 03:31 PM

FUNNY BECAUSE IT'S TRUE [Michael Graham]
I don't know of Dick Cheney was thinking of John Edwards when he told his joke about "delivering Wyoming's electoral votes for the Bush Cheney ticket."

But I sure was.

Posted at 03:30 PM

MSM [John Podhoretz]
On ABC, Mark Halperin of scandalous ABC media bias memo fame just called Bush a "lame duck." Two minutes after the president finished his speech. Here's a memo for Mark Halperin: Thank you for making our job so easy!

Posted at 03:26 PM

IN VICTORY... [KJL]
The first 20 NRO readers and Bush voters from Ohio (you must currently live in Ohio) who email thecorner@nationalreview.com"> will get a FREE one-year NR Digital subscription courtesy of NRO contributor John Hillen.

Posted at
03:25 PM

HE GETS IT [Cliff May]
“Our nation has shown resolve and patience in a new kind of war.”

“We will help emerging democracies of Iraq and Afghanistan.”

“Families and faith.”

“With good allies at our side, we will fight his war with every resource of our national power. So our children can live in freedom and in peace.”

“There is no limit to the greatness of America.”

“Sturdy and honest and as hopeful as the break of day.”

“The United States of America goes forward with confidence and faith.”

“God bless you and may God bless America.’

Posted at 03:19 PM

BUSH HUGS [John Hillen]
K-Lo, Bush-Cheney hugs on the rope line are more like hearty hand shakes or even Bob Dole grabs that are accompanied by a hearty clap on the back, shoulder squeeze, or even the rarely seen but highly prized forearm shiver. This is not kumbaya tell-me-about-your-inner-feelings hugs our man is talking about here.

Posted at 03:18 PM

BUSH'S VICTORY ANNOUNCEMENT [Jonah Goldberg]
Ended very oddly. Thanking Texas? That's nice, but, um, not really a soaring presidential high note to end on.

Posted at 03:18 PM

MARSHALL'S AMERICA [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Hey Jonah:

I just read the Josh Marshall article you linked. My favorite part is this:

"The fact that the president is 'convinced' that he won, is not only
meaningless but offensive. We have a system of rules for counting votes.
That's how we decide.

"(As I was writing this, word just went over the wires that Sen. Kerry
called President Bush to concede the election. I don't second-guess the
decision. They have a better handle on the numbers than anyone. And I'm
sure they can see that they are simply not there.)"

So, let's see ... it's meaningless and offensive for the President of
the United States to draw a conclusion based on the information at his
disposal, but for John Kerry to do the same is something that shouldn't
be "second guessed."

Then this guy moans for several paragraphs about how Bush has, more than
anyone, "bitterly" divided this nation, and just how tragic that is.
John Marshall's solution? Why, build a special secret
"Democratic-leaning counter-establishment ... with an alternative media,
activist groups, organized political giving, in short a political
infrastructure" to attack the Bushies and Red-Staters, that's what.
Sounds like a unifying gesture to me.

Judging from the consistency exhibited in this article, no wonder this
guy weeps for the Flip-Flop King.


Posted at 03:16 PM

OK, JUST THIS ONCE [Andrew Stuttaford]
Don't speak too soon, Kathryn. Chris Matthews is just reporting that, in the immediate aftermath of victory, George Bush hugged Dick Cheney. Mr. Cheney’s response is not recorded.

Posted at 03:13 PM

FROM, YES, THE GUARDIAN [Andrew Stuttaford]
If this doesn't add up to a mandate, it is hard to know what the word means. Increased turnout. Narrow but decisive wins on all fronts. What more can you ask for from a single campaign? Bush and his party won fair (well, probably) and square.”

Posted at 03:12 PM

ASIDE [KJL]
But you can't help but notice W. & Cheney don't do hugs. Too much hugging.

Update: Bush just thanked people for their hugs on the ropelines. Oh well. Still...

Posted at 03:12 PM

BUSH WON? I WILL IF YOU WILL. [Tim Graham]
It should be apparent now that the network projection process began as a mix of polling mathematics and diplomacy (let's avoid congressional hearings this time), and then in the wee hours of the morning, it became purely political -- from the minute Mary Beth Cahill said the Kerry camp would fight for every vote in Ohio. How weird was it that all of Ohio's votes were counted, with a 130,000-plus margin for Bush -- beyond the margin of litigation -- but some networks wouldn't call the state until news bubbled up that Kerry called Bush to concede? And that others failed to call Nevada until that moment? That's not straight-shooting, just the facts, ma'am journalism. That's playing it very political.

Posted at 03:10 PM

NEW BUSH SLOGAN [Drew Cline]
W stands for "Winner"

Posted at 03:10 PM

ONE LAST THING [Rob Long]
...and then I promise to give myself a long time out. But it seems to me, as the brilliant Mark Steyn has observed, that the most powerful secret weapon in the Republican arsenal is the left wing media. So please, let's all take an oath: no more complaining about it. It's one of the reasons we won last night.

Rob

PS: Rich Lowry just used the word "nifty" on Fox a moment ago. Surely this won't go unremarked by his colleagues, right? Language like that just brings the whole team down, you know?

Posted at 03:02 PM

L'MEDIA EST MOI [Jonah Goldberg]

I stopped cataloging instances of the cheese-eating surrender monkeys phrase propping up, but this one is too rich to pass up:

PARIS, Nov 3 (Reuters) - French President Jacques Chirac, who led Western opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq, said on Wednesday that strong transatlantic ties were essential if Paris and Washington were to overcome the challenges they faced.

"Our cooperation, our joint fight against terrorism and our efforts to
promote freedom and democracy must continue to develop in a spirit of
dialogue, esteem and mutual respect," he said in a letter congratulating
President George W. Bush on his re-election.

"We will not be able to come up with satisfactory responses to the many
challenges we face today without a strong transatlantic partnership," he
added.

"On behalf of France and myself, I wish to extend my warmest congratulations
on your re-election to the presidency of the United States of America,"
Chirac said in the hand-written letter made available to the media.
Transatlantic relations were badly damaged by Chirac's opposition to the
U.S.-led war on Iraq, which prompted U.S. media to dub the French people
"cheese-eating surrender monkeys".

Chirac referred in his letter to the 60th anniversary last June of the World
War Two D-day landings in Normandy as a sign of strong Franco-American
relations, and said he hoped those links would be reinforced during Bush's
second term in office.

Bush is highly unpopular in France, where the majority of citizens would
have voted for Democratic candidate John Kerry -- who has relatives in
France -- if they had had a say in the U.S. election.

Kerry was at pains during his election campaign to play down his links with
France for fear of alienating U.S. voters.


Posted at 02:53 PM

HOWEVER.... [Jonah Goldberg]
Dems with access to a time machine or a trans-dimensional portal might find this article soothing or descriptive of reality. Alas, residents of this particular spot in the multiversal space-time continuum may have a harder time grasping what he's getting at.

Posted at 02:47 PM

YESTERDAY A GOOD DAY FOR PRO-LIFERS [Jack Fowler]
National Right to Life Committee calculating net pick-up of three votes in the U.S. Senate and three to five votes in the House. NRLC is holding press conference in DC tomorrow morning to give fuller look at impact of abortion issue on the presidential vote and Congressional races.

Posted at 02:41 PM

FOR DEMS [Jonah Goldberg]
Josh Marshall's take on the election is about as cheery as a Finnish wake in January at which the caterer doesn't show and they run out of booze and the hearse runs over the widow. But it is interesting.

Posted at 02:35 PM

CONGRATS FROM PARIS [John J. Miller]
John Edwards didn't congratulate President Bush, but Jacques Chirac did.

Posted at 02:34 PM

"THOSE 20 ELECTORAL VOTES GO TO JOHN KERRY" [KJL]
Wolf Blitzer fatigue mistake right now. (Benefit of the doubt!)

Posted at 02:26 PM

YIKES [KJL]
Red Line Metro collision in D.C.

Posted at 02:26 PM

CONCESSIONS [John J. Miller]
Kerry was dignified, gracious, even likable. But Edwards? That was a 2008 speech. And an obnoxious one. The guy didn't even bother to congratulate the president. "This fight has just begun! ... The battle rages on!" No, pal -- the fight is over, the battle is ended. Your running mate recognizes this. You should, too.

Posted at 02:25 PM

P.S. ON ELECTION ESTHETICS [John Derbyshire]
I'm aware, in fact, of a sort of emotional aftershock kicking in -- ignited, somehow, by contemplating that beautiful hall while Edwards was speaking. It's all-embracing and all-forgiving. What a country this is! What a country! What a people! For a moment here, I'll confess it freely, I even like John Kerry.

Posted at 02:24 PM

UM.... [Jonah Goldberg]

John Kerry keeps saying "we're all Americans" etc.

Fine, good, nice.

But didn't his Veep just introduce him by insisting that "the battle rages on"? And didn't he buy his Veep's line that there are "two Americas"?


Posted at 02:20 PM

COLD WAR REDUX [Cliff May]
During most of the Cold War it was not possible for a Democrat to be elected president. Democrats were not seen as credible on national security and in a time of national security crisis, that was disqualifying.

From 1969, when Lyndon Johnson left office, until 1992 when Bill Clinton took office, a Democrat occupied the White House for only 4 years, and that was due to the Watergate scandal.

This information was not lost on Democratic strategists, which perhaps explains why they attempted to engineer Halliburton, Valerie Plame, the al Qaaqa explosives and so many other issues into bona fide scandals.

That effort did not succeed, at least not in the opinion of a majority of voters.

Now, in a new era of national security crisis, Democrats face a choice: Pray for a new Republican scandal (or try again to engineer one), or become credible on national security; follow the lead of Sen. Joe Lieberman and Rep. Jim Marshall rather than Howard Dean, Michael Moore and George Soros.

I sincerely hope Democrats pursue the second alternative.

Posted at 02:19 PM

JOHN KERRY [Cliff May]
He already seems more sincere, more relaxed, more likeable.

If he plays his cards right, I bet Bob Dole could get him a Viagra commercial.

Posted at 02:17 PM

I'M UNDERWHELMED BY THE SPEECH [Jonah Goldberg]
but you've got to cut the guy some slack. It's got to be an awful speech to give and he's being as gracious he can be.

Posted at 02:15 PM

"WRAP EVERYBODY UP IN MY ARMS?" [John Hillen]
This reference to wanting/needing to hug everyone who worked on his campaign I think gets to the root of the red/blue divide. Democrats want to hug everyone. Republicans hug those personally close to them, but have a firm hand-shake and friendly look into the eyes for the rest.

So there’s your election summary. 55.2 million serial huggers and 58.8 hand-shakers.

Posted at 02:12 PM

POSTCARD FROM PARIS [Rod Dreher]
A member of the French underground writes on this jour de gloire:
Hi Rod: You should see the streets of Paris, you should listen to the conversations at restaurants and cafés. Les défaitistes are defeated! Hilarious! We'll holding a victory party at an Italian, Bush-friendly, restaurant tomorrow night. Edwards and Kerry are speaking right now. what a day!

Posted at 02:11 PM

ELECTION ESTHETICS [John Derbyshire]
What a beautiful place Faneuil (sp?) Hall is, in that austere American republican style -- a style I suddenly realise I like very much.

Posted at 02:10 PM

NOT EGGS-ACTLY [John Derbyshire]
Report on microwave poached egg recipe: 30 secs per egg not enough. Some runny white. Sorry to digress -- back to election.

Posted at 02:08 PM

HERE'S WHAT SOME DEMOCRATS ARE THINKING RIGHT NOW [John Hood]
Why didn’t we run John Edwards this year? He doesn’t sound like a cold, distant, Massachusetts liberal. Plus, he’s a fighter. We have to fight, fight, fight!

Other Democrats are thinking:

But, hey, what did he do for us this year? What happened to Arkansas and Virginia?

Posted at 02:07 PM

EDWARDS [John Podhoretz]
Not to be negative or anything at this time of unity, but why on earth did John Edwards speak today? When in the course of human events has the vice-presidential candidate of a losing ticket been given a co-starring role in the concession speech?

Posted at 02:06 PM

CLOSE TO TEN [KJL]
The answer.

Posted at 02:06 PM

SENATOR EDWARDS [KJL]
didn't get the "uniting" lecture from Kerry.

Posted at 02:05 PM

DO VEEP CANDIDATES [KJL]
usually give concessions?

Posted at 02:04 PM

REASONS FOR JOY [John Derbyshire]
I shall never again have to pay attention to anything that Teresa Heinz Kerry says or does.

Posted at 02:02 PM

DID PEOPLE [KJL]
wait in line for ten hours to vote? That's a serious question. I didn't think so--maybe I missed it? I've never known John Edwards to exagerate.

Posted at 02:02 PM

I CAN'T HELP BUT THINK [KJL]
John Kerry is thinking "Phew. At least I don't have to pretend to like John Edwards anymore." Likewise for Edwards re Kerry.

Posted at 02:01 PM

EDWARDS CONCEDING NOW [Jonah Goldberg]

Posted at 02:00 PM

HEY JIM JEFFORDS [Jonah Goldberg]

By the way, great call on switching parties! Seriously, boffo move my man!


Posted at 01:54 PM

THE F-BOMB & BIN LADEN [Jonah Goldberg]
Thanks for all the pro-F-bomb email when it comes to FBL. But lets just let the whole thing drop. Mailbox is brimming with lots of folks coming to me defense. Don't worry about it. For future reference, when I say "can't please everybody" it should read as "I think this reader is wrong, but I don't think his position is necessarily absurd."

Posted at 01:53 PM

NATIONAL PUBLIC REALITY [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Dear Jonah,

The mainstream media just suffered it's first post election credability casualty. I finally turned off NPR. I was listening to the arbiters of unvarnished truth tell me how Florida was, and would remain a swing state (Bush by 376,923). Pennsylvania swung decisively to Kerry (Kerry by 121,489) and was probably no longer a battleground state, while Bush eked out a narrow victory in Ohio (Bush by 136,218). They aren't even trying to base their opinions on reality.


Posted at 01:48 PM

DERBAWOL ON POLL MATH [John Derbyshire]
Combination of things, Jonah.

(1) There's pure math, and applied math. I'm a pure math guy. See, e.g., p.359 of PRIME OBSESSION: "A thing that nonmathematicians want to know, a question that is always asked when mathemmaticians address lay audiences, is, _What use is it?_ Suppose [the Riemann Hypothesis] were proved true, or false. What practical consequences would follow? Would our health, our convenience, our safety be improved? Would new devices be invented? Would we travel faster? Have more devastating weapons? Colonize Mars? ... I had better unmask myself at this point as a pure mathematician _sans melange_, having no interest in such questions at all..."

(2) I am friends with Steve Sailer, who is so superbly good at that kind of analysis, it seems hopeless to compete. Steve isn't altogether kidding when he describes himself as: "The only Republican that knows how to use Microsoft Excel."

Posted at 01:47 PM

I'VE BEEN ASKED [KJL]
So, here is where you donate to NRO's future.

Posted at 01:46 PM

FOX [Rich Lowry]
FYI--scheduled to be on from 2-4 pm, on and off.

Posted at 01:41 PM

WE HAVE EDIT UP ON BUSH WIN. [Rich Lowry]

Posted at 01:40 PM

CPE* DEPT [Jonah Goldberg]

*Stands for Can't Please Everybody. From a reader:

Dear Mr. Goldberg,

I am a regular NRO reader and NRODT subscriber who used to read your columns. I avoid them, as a general rule, as you have become the NR/NRO writer I'm least likely to read.

Your juvenile "F*** you" comment directed toward Osama bin Laden truly diminishes NRO's reputation. I frequently refer friends and acquaintences to NRO, but attitudes like yours do little to promote the conservative cause. John Derbyshire gloated thoughtfully in his column this morning. Articles like his are worth consideration. Comments like "F*** you"--well...consider your own reaction to emails from losers who disagree with you, but are only able to muster "F*** you" to register their disagreement.

I'm happy that Bush won. I'm grateful that Kerry, for whatever reason (and you know that he has a political motive), has conceded. I wish that OBL would be caught and executed for his murderous actions. But, please, let's promote conservatism intelligently. I seem to recall that NR used to have a slogan, "Reason over rhetoric."

I'm certain that you'll dismiss my letter (if you've even read this far) by claiming that we deserve a victory lap, or that conservative doesn't have to mean stuffy, or some other defense. That's fine. But, as a paying customer, I did want to take this opportunity to point out that I don't care for that product line, and that it hinders my endorsement of NRO as a reliable source of information.


Posted at 01:37 PM

HEY DERB [Jonah Goldberg]

You are our math guy, but you seem entirely uninterested in the statistical issues involved in the exit polls etc. Why is that?

Just curious.


Posted at 01:32 PM

ALIVE [Cliff May]
For the record, there was no terrorist attack on American voters yesterday.

There has been no terrorist attack on American soil since 9/11/01.

If Osama bin Laden, Abu Musab Zarqawi et al. could have made our streets run red with blood over these many months, they would have done so.

For that achievement alone, President Bush deserved re-election. And others – Attorney General John Ashcroft springs to mind – deserve great credit and thanks.

The future remains uncertain. It is doubtful that this time next year, I’ll be able to write another post like this. But then, on 9/12/01, I would not have expected to be able to write this one.

Posted at 01:25 PM

THE JOHN EDWARDS RATIONALE [John Derbyshire]
Dunno, Jonah. As I said in my column, he trod lightly on the electoral earth. Now he's gone, like a will o' the wisp.

I guess, though, when you have a lock on a party's finances like the one the trial lawyers' lobby has on the Dems', if you want a man on the ticket, you get one.

Posted at 01:24 PM

IN-HOUSE MEMO [John Derbyshire]
Hey, Kathryn: Who's keeping the book on a Colin Powell departure?.......

Posted at 01:23 PM

RE: GLOAT ENCOUNTER [John Derbyshire]
Back home, now I hear the speech is two o'clock. One o'clock, two o'clock, just make the speech, John.

Time for lunch: corned beef hash (Broadcast brand, of course) & poached eggs. Going to try one of the responses to my egg bleg the other day -- microwave poaching. This recipe was from Dave in Michigan:

--Put a pat of butter into a coffee cup.
--Crack open the egg and put it into the cup sans the shell.
--Cover the cup with a piece of waxed paper.
--Nuke the egg for 30 seconds, give or take a few seconds (double the time for two eggs).

Posted at 01:23 PM

GLOAT ENCOUNTER [John Derbyshire]
Nipped out for a quick trip to Home Depot. Standing there in the hardware aisle, doing some mental arithmetic on screw sizes. Cell phone rang. It was a friend with an issue, needed me to be at my computer. When would I be home? "Oh," I said into cell phone," I'll be home by one o'clock. Gotta see that Kerry concession speech."

Standing next to me in the aisle was an older gent of a vaguely ex-military appearance: white hair close-cropped, back ramrod-straight, work clothes crisply ironed & creased. Overhearing me, he said softly, to nobody in particular: "Oh yeah, GOT to see that. Ain't gonna miss that. Wooo hooo!"

Big Orange Republicans: the few, the brave.

Posted at 01:22 PM

CONGRATS TO BOB SHRUM [Jonah Goldberg]
He keeps his perfect presidential record.

Posted at 01:22 PM

SWIFTVETS [KJL]
The following is a statement by Admiral Roy Hoffmann, founder of Swift Vets and POWs for Truth concerning Sen. Kerry's decision to concede the presidential race.

"We are pleased with the fact that we were able to effectively bring attention to our issues and raise questions regarding Senator Kerry’s character, leadership ability and qualifications as a potential Commander in Chief. As we have stated since we formed, we believed that John Kerry’s actions in Vietnam, coupled with the reprehensible statements he made after he returned were serious and consequently made him unfit for command. The primary purpose of our organization was to provide a voice for the courageous and honorable veterans of Vietnam, more than 280 Swift Boat Vets, Coast Guardsmen and POWs who served their country with honor. Our national grassroots efforts produced donors in every state in the nation as we raised more than $26 million, with more than $7 million in online contributions. In addition, Swift Boat Veterans and former POW's visited dozens of states to take their message directly to the American people. We were the true embodiment of grassroots citizen action, complied fully with federal election law and had every right to participate in the public discussion of John Kerry's qualifications as Commander in Chief."

Posted at 01:13 PM

CAPTURING THE MEDIA MOMENT [Jonah Goldberg]

If I were a political cartoonist, I would draw Dan Rather or Katie Couric with a thought-bubble over his/her head. Inside would be the front page of the New York Times.

Banner Headline:
OBAMA WINS SENATE
Only Black Senator

Tiny headline below the fold:

Bush wins presidency, Fails to reach out to Blacks, Gays.
GOP picks up Senate, House Seats

Sidebar:
Hillary Clinton Congratulates Obama
"We can do great things together," NY Sen Declares.


Posted at 01:07 PM

THANKS (!!) [KJL]
(in no particular order) to Chris McEvoy, Aaron Bailey, WFB, Ed Capano, Rich Lowry, Jonah Goldberg, Ramesh Ponnuru, Kate O'Beirne, John J. Miller, Jay Nordlinger, David Frum, Jim Kilbridge, Jack Fowler, Scott Budd, Jim Fowler, Dusty Rhodes, Kevin Longstreet, Jim Geraghty, Rod Dreher, Peter Robinson, Michael Ledeen, John Podhoretz, Rick Brookhiser, John Derbyshire, Jim Robbins, Tim Graham, Mike Potemra, Rachel Friedman, Meghan Clyne, Alex Rose, Dave Kopel, Jane Jolis, Dorothy McCartney, John Virtes, Liz Fisher, Byron York, Terry Maloney, Jason Ng, Galina Veygman, Irena Dynkevich, Luba Myts, Tim Wolfe, Russ Jenkins, Henry Payne, Steven Hayward, Cris Rapp, Scott W. Johnson, John Hinderaker, Kane Webb, Chris Lilik, Peter Schramm, Brian Kennedy, Cliff May, Barbara Comstock, Mark Levin, Andrew Stuttaford, Andy McCarthy, Jon Adler, John Hillen, Rob Long, Mark Steyn, Victor Davis Hanson, Michael Graham, Jennifer Graham, Tom Hibbs, Jed Babbin, John Hood, Shannen Coffin, Wesley Smith, Roger Clegg, Jim Boulet, David J. Sanders , Dan Greenberg, Cesar Conda, Mary Matalin, Fr. Rutler, Robert Alt, Chip Griffin, D. F. Oliveria, Dave Hogberg, Drew Cline, Kevin Holtsberry, Brian Flanagan, Mike Tuffin, Thomas A. Johnson, MAtt Simpson, Ron Adair, Mike Brake, Jery Agar, Tim Reed, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Hugh Hewitt, Duane Patterson, Bill Bennett, Seth Leibsohn, Chris Collins, Michael Kelly, William Shatner, Karl Rove, Ken Melhman, Ed Gillespie, John O'Neill, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush…All of our Readers, Subscriber, Sources, Cheerleaders, Friends, and Critics…and everyone I forgot to name or I can't name (my sincerest apologies)! A magazine is only as good as the people who are willing to invest time and talent to it...

Posted at 01:04 PM

FRENCH LOOKING [John J. Miller]
I just caught a TV image of Kerry's townhouse on Louisburg Square in Boston. It just so happens that Louisburg was the site of an important French military defeat.

Posted at 01:02 PM

THANKS, YOU'RE WELCOME, THANKS AGAIN [Jonah Goldberg]

To all the folks who've written notes like this:

Jonah, I must say a big thank you to NRO and The Corner. I spent 80% of my time last night hitting the refresh button. All my friends were in a panic, but I was calmer because I had been reading The Corner all day. You guys called it! I am encouraging my friends to go to NRO for trusted political commentary. I am a regular now!

Posted at 12:54 PM

INTERESTING READING [Jonah Goldberg]
"World leaders" react. Some highlights: Spanish political analyst Juan Carlos Rodriguez: "Zapatero (Spanish Prime Minister) was counting on a victory for Kerry... The government will have to start making conciliatory gestures... It has been a bit naive." Russian President Vladimir Putin: "I rejoice that the American people did not allow themselves to be scared and made a right decision." Kenyan Vice President Moody Awori: "The first term of Bush, he had come in as a lame duck. Now it appears as if he is winning very convincingly. To me I think we are going to see more dictatorship on an international scale. We are going to see more extremism come out of there. We are going to see even more isolationism where America will not bother about the United Nations. To me that is a very sad affair."

Posted at 12:51 PM

THE BLOG STORY [Jonah Goldberg ]
It's amazing how far and wide NRO appears in the blooging-the-election stories around the world. Various Indian papers picked up the Reuters story so Shannen's buck-up thoughts about the exits are well-known throughout the subcontinent now.

Posted at 12:36 PM

THE SOUTH AND TURNOUT [Rich Lowry]
Both, as has been noted here, worked out well for the GOP. So congrats are also in order to Ralph Reed, who worked both hard for the Bush team.

Posted at 12:29 PM

SCENT OF A TERRORIST [Jonah Goldberg]

(apologies to Al Pacino)

And Osama Bin Laden wherever you are out there ... f*** you too!


Posted at 12:26 PM

RATHERISM [John J. Miller]
The Hotline has published last night's weirdest Ratherisms. Here's my favorite:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), on being congratulated on victory by Rather: "Thanks Dan, I always believe you."

Rather: "Now, ladies and gentleman, if you believe that, you'll believe rocks can grow."

That sort of sums it up for me. The next time I believe Rather will be when rocks grow.

Posted at 12:16 PM

RAMESH IS MY SENATE HERO [Shannen Coffin]
Yes, Ramesh, you DA MAN. You'll note I didn't even give a prediction. I thought Alaska would be a loss for us, so my number was not at +4. I was thinking +4 would be a dream scenario, and was thinking more along the lines of +2. I am very pleased that my adopted home state of Louisiana put the first GOP Senator in office since Reconstruction and did so by a majority of the votes. The huge pickup in the Senate and the defeat of Daschle is obviously the second biggest story of this election. It is almost as big as story for Bush as the actual win in the Presidential race. I am most hopeful with respect to the backlog of well qualified Bush judges who may get a shot at confirmation now. How many Blue Senators in Red States are going to want to roll the dice on going the path of Tom Daschle for the sake of filibustering Bush judges now? I would think that this clears the way for confirmations to start up again. No doubt that Leahy and company will want to continue the fight, but does Harry Reid and other "moderates" have the stomach for it?

Posted at 12:16 PM

OH...ALSO... [Jonah Goldberg]
To the Guardian newspaper. Ha-ha (in Simpson's tone). Clarke County went for Bush. Sucks to be you too.

Posted at 12:14 PM

MASON-DIXON POLL [Jonah Goldberg]
According the Hotline they were the big winner, pollster-wise.

Posted at 12:11 PM

RALPHIE [John J. Miller]
Nader was a non-factor. I see only one state where his vote total is greater than the margin separating the candidates. In Wisconsin, Kerry beat Bush by about 14,000 votes and Nader collected about 16,000 votes. Hard to see how removing him from the ballot would have made a difference there.

Posted at 12:09 PM

BEFORE AND AFTER [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

J- The disparity between the initial exit polls favoring Kerry and his subsequent loss to W tells me one thing: Most people voted for Kerry.......before they voted against him.

Posted at 12:08 PM

ONE CABIN AVAILABLE FOR NR CRUISE NEXT WEEK!!! [Jack Fowler]
Your lucky day – someone on the Zuiderdam cancelled, and we grabbed the cabin, so if you want to come celebrate JFK’s defeat with 400 fellow NRers on our 2004 Post-Election Caribbean Cruise, there’s a room for you. But you MUST act today. Make that now. Call The Cruise Authority at 1-800-707-1634. Remember, speakers will include Dick Morris, Ed Gillespie, Pat Toomey, VDH, Bernard Lewis, Michelle Malkin, Steve Moore, Dinesh D’Souza, John Hillen, NR editors galore – did I forget someone?!

Posted at 12:08 PM

I CALLED THUNE [KJL]
but only because I really, really wanted daschle to lose.

Posted at 12:06 PM

TOO BAD [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Chet Edwards beat Arlene Wohlgemuth--she would have been a great spending-cutter.

Posted at 12:03 PM

OH...I ALMOST FORGOT. [Jonah Goldberg]
Hey France: Sucks to be you.

Posted at 12:03 PM

SO.... [Jonah Goldberg]
If the economy soars in the next few years -- as I think it might -- what exactly will the press and the Democrats do?

Posted at 12:02 PM

TRADESPORTS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Yesterday the markets there were crazy, but overall I think that looking at them this year was useful. They were a bit more stable than the polls, for one thing. At almost any point in the last month, they were calling states such as NM, MI, HI, MN, PA, CO, and AZ correctly. A lot of people told me that various states were in play, and sometimes polls suggested they were right, but tradesports provided a good check.

Posted at 12:02 PM

OKAY SHANNEN [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I may have been slightly too bullish on the electoral count, and too bearish on the popular vote. But you have to admit that I called the Senate perfectly.

Posted at 11:56 AM

THE DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND [Jonah Goldberg]

Their forums are closed to outsiders (i.e. unregistered DUers) today. But their blog is worth a gander.


Posted at 11:53 AM

EXHILARATION [KJL]
Another e-mail:
Finally broke down and did it. Been a big NRO fan for a couple of years now. The Corner the past few days put me over the edge though. It's kind of like crack for political junkies -- I can't get enough of it. Keep up the great work!

Posted at 11:53 AM

THE BLACK VOTE [John J. Miller]
Bush apparently didn't make the inroads some had anticipated among black voters: I had seen some suggestions that Bush would get as much as 15 or 18 percent. Exit polls have the split at 89 percent for Kerry and 11 percent for Bush; I've also seen 90-10. Granted, I'm citing those awful exit polls. But it's all we've got right now--and something tells me the hopeful predictions of GOPers who were crossing their fingers for early signs of a racial realignment aren't going to pan out.

Posted at 11:52 AM

LET THE GLOATING BEGIN [Shannen W. Coffin]
With the Kerry campaign graciously seeing the writing on the wall, I do not wish to gloat about the Bush win. But I do wish to gloat about my foresight, which I think we all should take a moment to appreciate now. Let's take stock of the bidding.

Electoral College as it presently stands: Bush 286, Kerry 252

This Week's Electoral College Vote Predictions:
Rich Lowry (the Master): "I'm a 270's guy. 270, 271, 276"
Jim Geraghty (the Voice of Kerry Spot): 271 to 267 (but he nailed the popular vote at 51-48).
Jonah Goldberg (the class clown): "If you're demanding an exact number, I'll go with 296."
Kate O'Beirne (the reason I'm here): Can't remember the exact number, but very bullish, in the 290-300 range.
I think you know where this is going, don't you? My post from Monday:
286-252. [Shannen Coffin] That's my prediction. Bush holds Ohio and Florida. Picks up NM and IA. NH, overrun by Massachusetts libs who can talk a good game about the need for higher taxes but can't back it up by paying them, flips to Kerry. I wouldn't be entirely surprised, however, if I'm wrong on Wisconsin, which I currently have as a Dem hold. Actually, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if I am wrong on the entire damnable enterprise, since I rarely get these things right. I was just hoping I could have something else to laugh at NRO editors about (in addition to the Red Sox Series win), so I am taking a free shot. Posted at 01:02 PM
I'd like also to remind readers that I was the voice of reason in the midst of bad exit poll numbers yesterday. Look, I'm not the pro here; just a practicing lawyer with a lot to say. But I felt pretty confident about this race for the last couple of months. Did I have doubts? Sure. But the President has provided solid leadership in very difficult times. Oh, but this isn't about him. It's about me beating the pros!!!!! And did I mention that the Red Sox won the World Series?

Posted at 11:51 AM

DEAN FOR DNC CHAIR? [Jonah Goldberg]

That's what Kos wants. I do agree with him that the current dufus in there has been the worst DNC chair in modern memory. He raised a lot of money, but he lost seats in the house, senate and statehouses. Bush won by a bigger margin than his hero-mentor Bill Clinton. McAuliffe far more than Karl Rove has helped make the Democratic Party a rump party.

As for Dean, I love that idea. The Democratic Party just got walloped on social issues -- particularly gays and religion -- and Kos thinks the money bet is on a guy who is completely tone deaf on religion and is associated (a bit unfairly) with the most pro-gay marriage wing of the party. Yes! Dean for DNC Chair. Heck Dean for President in '08 baby!


Posted at 11:50 AM

THANKS TO ALL CORNER CONTRIBUTORS... [Rich Lowry]
...and especially KJL, for making the Corner such an indispensable asset throughout this campaign.

Posted at 11:49 AM

THE SUN SETS [KJL]
Daschle's metaphor, as conceding, just now. My lack of human empathy is not something I am proud of.

Posted at 11:48 AM

GLOAT REBUTTAL [John Derbyshire]
A reader of another persuasion:

"GLOAT, and watch your pretend Teddy ride up the mound of civilian corpses he thinks of as San Falluja Hill.

"Gloat, and see sucidal economic policies precipitate the worst economic dislocation in 75 years.

"Gloat and enjoy the spectalce of a faith that imagines Torquemada to be the Redeemer; prefers burning Joan to the miracle of the loaves.

"Gloat and chuckle as you watch a polity riven and divided by demagogue fueled ever more implacable hatreds

"Gloat. Time and reason will bring you low."

Time will bring us all low, Sir. That, alas, is what time inexorably does. Reason, however, is shining bright today.

Posted at 11:44 AM

"SUCH DISORDER"! [John J. Miller]
Le Monde, the newspaper of record in a certain European country, went to press before all the results were in--but didn't hesitate to trash American democracy: "Such disorder, unimaginable in most other democratic countries, does no honour to the US. And it is worrying that the fate of the world is in suspense because of such an archaic system."

Posted at 11:44 AM

WILL STOP SOON [KJL]
But, besides the winners, Derb. DASCHLE LOST. KERRY LOST. I cannot overestimate the sense of relief here at NR World Headquarters. And that is selfless, because I can imagine the subscription boost on Teresa alone.

Posted at 11:42 AM

NOW THAT HE'S NOT USING IT... [Jonah Goldberg]
Can John Kerry please tell us what his super-duper special terrific secret plan to fix Iraq was?

Posted at 11:41 AM

WOOO-HOOOOOO!!! [Rich Lowry]

Posted at 11:40 AM

NEVADA FOR W. [John Derbyshire]
Yesss! And looks like Kerry's done the right thing. God bless him. God bless America.

**BIG** winners: W, the US armed forces, John Thune, the Swifties, Hilary Clinton.

Posted at 11:39 AM

INTERESTING... [Rich Lowry]
"One-fourth of Ohio voters identified themselves as born-again Christians and they backed Bush by a 3-to-1 margin."

Posted at 11:39 AM

ANTI GOP VIOLENCE CONTINUES [KJL]
in Fla.

Posted at 11:38 AM

COLORADO [John J. Miller]
Bush won, but other than that, Democrats had an outstanding election--beat Coors, switched a House seat from R to D, and gained control of both legislative chambers, and passed a transit tax for light rail. Some details here.

Posted at 11:34 AM

CAN WE [KJL]
have inaugural balls TODAY?

Posted at 11:27 AM

W. [KJL]
speaks at 3.

Posted at 11:27 AM

IN THE MIDST OF MY INCREDIBLE JOY, ONE REGRET [John Hillen]
Teresa would have been such a gas for bloggers.

Posted at 11:26 AM

GALLUP [Cliff May]
Also on the MoveOn.org web site, a story headlined: “Gallup-ing to the Right: Why Does America’s Top Pollster Keep Getting It Wrong.”

Well, Gallup did get it wrong. They tilted to Kerry.

The final CNN/USA/Gallup poll predicted a Bush/Kerry tie – 49% - 49%.

(Pew was closest to the actual results with 51 – 48; and Democratic pollster Mark Mellman as I’ve said.)

MoveOn’s web site is a target-rich opportunity today.

Posted at 11:25 AM

"DIVIDED" [KJL]
CNN reporting that Kerry lectured Bush about how divided the country is and how he needs to bring the country together. But. If Bush go 57.4 million votes-- more than any other candidate in history and won a majority of the pop vote, how is the country so divided? Much more comfy than 2000. Certainly less divided...

Posted at 11:24 AM

CHECK OUT MOVEON.ORG [Cliff May]
Their headline: “It’s Election Day. Vote.”

Guess they’re not ready to … move on.

Posted at 11:17 AM

"WHY HAS THIS COUNTRY GONE SO FAR IN THE CONSERVATIVE DIRECTION" [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Bill Hemmer on CNN just asked...

Posted at 11:17 AM

THE KERRY CAMPAIGN [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
has my personal thanks for ending this today. On behalf of the staff of NRO, and sleep-deprived and democracy-loving Americans everywhere, THANK YOU.

Posted at 11:13 AM

TURNOUT [John J. Miller]
Overall voter turnout was 59 percent -- highest rate since 1968 -- says LA Times.

Posted at 11:13 AM

MORE OHIO [Rich Lowry]
This is very rough-and-ready reporting, so don't take this as 100% nailed down, but should be pretty accurate. From Ohio GOP source: It's as close to impossible for Kerry as it can get. Roughly 154,000 provisionals and a 137,000 margin, with probably something on the order of 10,000 overseas ballots, many of which are military and will break strongly for Bush. Doing the math, Kerry's just not going to get there. The factoid that 90% of Ohio provisionals were valid in the past was based on Ohio state law, not on HAVA. HAVA will apply here. It's standards will be stricter. The early indication from local elections officials is that 50-70% of the provisional ballots will be valid. The standards for counting were stipulated in that Sixth circuit decision recently: you have to be registered, and you have to have voted in the correct precinct. Again, there is no way Kerry can win this thing. Dragging it out--based probably on outlandish allegations--is only a way to play to the left and try to de-legitimize Bush's second term by mucking it up as much as possible. But Republicans on the ground in Ohio are hopeful it ends quickly, perhaps today.

UPDATE: it appears now to be academic.

Posted at 11:10 AM

THE MOOD AT GEORGETOWN LAW [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Dear Jonah,

I would say that the 90/10 Kerry split at the NIH is mirrored here.
Lots of Kerry/"I Love Choice" shirt, but today most students are
wearing long faces. 15-20% of students didn't even show up today. The
Federalist Society guys are giddy.

Best. Election. Ever.

Cheers,
Adam


Posted at 11:09 AM

SALETAN & EDWARDS [Jonah Goldberg ]

Ramesh, I love it. Will Saletan can't stand Bush because he thinks Bush is a simpleton. He thinks being a simpleton makes you a bad president and bad for America. So, his conclusion: The Democrats need a simpleton!



Posted at 11:08 AM

KERRY HAS CALLED BUSH TO CONCED [KJL]
Bush Wins. Amen.

Posted at 11:07 AM

BETTY CASTOR [KJL]
is finally conceding to Mel Martinez

Posted at 11:02 AM

THAT NIH VIBE [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:

Greetings from NIH Building 10. I'm guessing the popular vote in this building went 90%-10% Kerry, so everyone here today is really sad. Me, I've got a grin ear to ear. For what it's worth, all the Kerry supporters I've spoken with seem resigned to the fact Kerry lost, and lost fair and square. I haven't heard a single Moore-on try to claim the election was stolen or fixed. Just giving you the vibe from on the street.

Posted at 11:00 AM

RE: THE EDWARDS JUGGERNAUT [Jonah Goldberg]

North Carolina results in 2000: Bush 56%, Gore 43%

North Carolina results in 2004: Bush 56%, Kerry 43%


Posted at 10:58 AM

RE: JUBILATION [Cliff May]
Karl and Co. have my admiration. The deck was stacked against them.

Not only did Bush have to run against the DNC, Shrum & the Clintonites – fair enough -- he also had to run against The New York Times, CBS and the rest of the MSM, Hollywood (including Michael Moore and the cast of “The West Wing’), Bruce Springsteen, Academia, the union bosses (but not the rank and file), the ‘non-partisan” ACLU, the “non-partisan” NAACP, Kofi Annan & Mohamed ElBaradei, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and, of course, the lovely and charming Jacques Chirac.

He also had to run against most employees of the DoS and the CIA.

In regard to these last two agencies, one has to hope that, in his second term, the President will take pains to ensure that America’s diplomats and intelligence officers support the government for which they are working.

In regard to the MSM, they have compromised their integrity and professionalism – and, it turns out, for nothing. One would hope there would be some self-examination and self-criticism. But I ain’t betting on it.

Posted at 10:55 AM

SOME GOP TALKING POINTS THIS MORNING [KJL]
President Bush:
*** Became the first President to be re-elected while gaining seats in the House and Senate since 1936 and the first Republican President since 1924 to be re-elected while re-electing Republican House and Senate majorities.
*** Became the first President to win a majority of the popular vote since 1988.
*** Received 57.4 million votes - more than any other candidate in history. He broke President Reagan's 1984 mark of 54.5 million. (96% reporting)
***Increased the popular vote by seven million votes since 2000 - more than twice Clinton's increase from 1992 to 1996.
***Improved his percentage in every state except four (MD, OR, VT and WY). This includes a four percent increase in John Kerry's home state, Massachusetts.

Posted at 10:52 AM

THE EURO MARKETS [KJL]
are soaring

Posted at 10:49 AM

WHO TO VEX? [John Derbyshire]
The Kerry people have got themselves in a bind with this promise to "make sure every vote is counted." That means, on a strict interpretation, they will have to wait out the eleven days in Ohio before formally conceding, thereby massively ticking off the nation, since a great majority of Americans want a speedy decision and can figure the math.

If, on the other hand, Kerry does the gracious thing and concedes without having the Ohio ballots all counted and certified, he will massively tick off that large segment of his base who have taken the "count every vote" promises to heart, and are still burning with rancor over Florida 2000. Another betrayal!

So: tick off the nation, or tick off the base? Politics sure ain't easy.

Posted at 10:45 AM

ON RICH'S NUMBER CRUNCHING [Andy McCarthy]
MSNBC reported this morning that, for the small amount of time they have been in use (so data may not be the most reliable) legitimacy rate of provisional votes in Ohio is about 90%. If that holds up, there would be about 139,000. Statistically inconceivable that Kerry could overcome Bush's lead since he'd basically need 100%. But is it enough for the Dems to justify to themselves dragging this out? I'm afraid it probably is because the MSM will not kill them over it.

Posted at 10:44 AM

A BRIEF PERIOD OF JUBILATION [John Derbyshire]
[That was Churchill again, speaking to the British on VE Day in May 1945: "We may permit ourselves a brief period of jubilation."]

Let's be happy Republicans. Look, it's been a while. There was that awful mess in 2000 -- and this isn't a mess, it's comparatively clean. Then there was 1996 -- Aaaaargh! --- and 1992. It's been a while. Break out the bubbly.

Posted at 10:43 AM

POINTED OUT TO ME [KJL]
Today Show was dressed in black....

Posted at 10:41 AM

OHIO--THE MATH [John Derbyshire]
A physics Ph.D. candidate at a very respectable university: "Mr. Derbyshire---I felt a strong need to actually figure out John Kerry's odds of winning Ohio in a somewhat rigorous fashion. Not too promising for the Kerry campaign: I figure there are 175000 provisional ballots out there, as that seems to be the high end of official estimates. If we assume that each has a 50% chance of being counted (and that's way high, it's really probably more like 15-20%) then having more ballots than Bush's margin of victory is a 360-sigma event, which comes out to a probability of 2.8*10^-28145. [That's a number with 28,144 zeros to the right of the decimal point, then some nonzero digits: 2, 8,...---JD] But hey, it could happen. And if every one of those votes goes for John Kerry (probability of this is around 10^-850000 or so) then Kerry might just pull this off."

Posted at 10:41 AM

OHIO INTEL [Rich Lowry]
Information we're getting, as we try to get up to date on provisional ballot situation:

1) First question in considering these things: are you registered to vote? If you're not, your ballot doesn't count.

2) Unclear on this point--would the standard for counting the ballots be that of federal or Ohio law?

3) 11 days is a ceiling. Ballots can be counted before then.
4) Not clear how many overseas ballots are still outstanding. Expectation is that they will tip to Bush (they include military ballots).
(If you have comments on this, or information, send e-mails to Kathryn because she can post them most quickly.)

Posted at 10:37 AM

CLICK [KJL]
here. Because you want all the best conservative commentary out there.

Posted at 10:36 AM

527S [KJL]
Need thanks too--SwiftVets. And, as Kate said last night, Kerry concession--when it comes--is the Vietnam Vets parade they never got.

Posted at 10:32 AM

EDWARDS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Don't underestimate the resiliency of his media cheering section. Check out Saletan today.

Posted at 10:30 AM

EXIT POLLS [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
I think as long as they exist and MSM types have them, everyone should. But I'm not sure they should exist. And I wonder if they will four years from now.

Posted at 10:29 AM

MY BEST UNDERSTANDING [Rich Lowry]
Our best understanding at moment...154,725 provisional ballots out there, and Bush's margin is 136,700.

Posted at 10:27 AM

EARLY EXIT POLLS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Maybe we should reconsider publishing them. I've favored it, in the past, when the alternative has been a kind of media paternalism. But the reason I think we should consider not doing it in the future is not some goo-goo civics reason--I don't think we're under an obligation not to publish things that might depress turnout. It's that the exit polls seem to be so bad that they don't constitute actual information. We don't tend to write about Internet polls on the Corner because we know they're garbage. Time to say the same thing about early exit polls?

Posted at 10:26 AM

DEDWARDS [John J. Miller]
No, Edwards didn't bring much to the ticket, but the main problem was with the top half rather than the bottom half. This was Kerry's opportunity to win, and he lost. He'll get most of the blame, and rightfully so. But expect Edwards to take some heat from his own side. Team Clinton especially will want to smack him around--more because of what he might do in the future rather than what he has done in the recent past, though.

Posted at 10:24 AM

TRIVIA [Ramesh Ponnuru]

It's the first time the House Republicans have expanded their majority in two successive elections, and the first time they've expanded their majority during a presidential election since 1928.

By 2008, the Democrats will have held the presidency for only 20 out of 56 years. (But for 40 out of 76 years.)


Posted at 10:19 AM

BY THE WAY... [Jonah Goldberg]

When I get back... if someone can explain to me what John Edwards did for that ticket, I'd love to know. He was supposed to make the south competitive. Brrrrrr: Wrong! He was supposed to gin up the rural voters. Brrrrr wrong! He was supposed to make economic populism work for Democrats.....Brrrrrr oh you get the point.

Edwards brought no substance, he brought no states, he brought (as far as I can tell right now) no vital demographics but he did bring pretty hair.


Posted at 10:08 AM

AN E-MAIL [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Just said on FM 96.9 in Boston (his radio show) that the Kerry campaign will issue a "directional" statement this AM and that Kerry will give a concession speech this afternoon. This was based on his "discussions" with the Kerry folks, who Barnicle is tight with.

Posted at 10:07 AM

APOLOGIES [Jonah Goldberg]
If you sent me email in the last hour it probably didn't make it. Overloaded again. I had to do a panel with Peter Beinart of The New Republic. He says he'd be shocked if Kerry didn't concede today, btw. Now, I owe Cosmo a walk. I'll be back in a few.

Posted at 10:04 AM

2008 [John J. Miller]
I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves either, but I'll make two quick points. First, with Cheney presumably not in the running and Jeb Bush announcing his non-interest recently, the nomination will be as wide open as it ever has been in our lives. The GOP may be the party of orderly succession, but it's not at all clear whose "turn" it is. Second, look at the field as we now know it: Frist, McCain, Giuliani, Hagel, Pataki. There is a major opportunity here for a movement conservative, and especially a conservative governor. Bill Owens of Colorado comes to mind, but it's not clear he's going to run. Sanford of South Carolina is impressive and don't count out Pawlenty of Minnesota. Okay, enough 2008 talk from me. At least until tomorrow.

Posted at 10:04 AM

A DOW CHEER [NRO Financial Editors]
The index jumps 175 in first half hour. Wall Street wholly endorses four more years.

Posted at 10:04 AM

RE: BRILLIANT [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
For months, RNCers were saying "we have an unprecedented grassroots operation." Appears they were telling the truth. Congrats!

Posted at 09:59 AM

BRILLIANT IN ITS CONCEPTION [Rich Lowry]
That's what you have to say about the Bush campaign. Their basic strategic idea from the beginning wasn't to go wobbly in an attempt to win “sing voters” as defined by the media. Instead, they wanted to play to the base, and, like in 1994, change the composition of the electorate based on high conservative turn-out (including conservative Democrats, who somehow don't count as swing voters in the media). That's exactly what happened. Given the adverse conditions Bush had to deal with in this race--all the bad news--that he won this sort of victory is, among other things, a testament to the strategic and tactical talents of Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman, and the rest of his team. Congratulations guys.

Posted at 09:57 AM

CELEBRATE! [Jack Fowler]
By buying Florence King’s STET, Damnit!—the complete and unabridged collection of her glorious, no-fools-suffering, dimwit-smothering “Misanthrope’s Corner” column that graced NR’s back page for so many years. Miss King’s works read as well (and sometimes even better) as the day they were published, and will keep you in stitches. Get your copy direct from NR, here.

Posted at 09:51 AM

NO. NO. NO. [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
A reader: "Can we start the '08 campaign now? Having way tto much fun to stop"

Posted at 09:51 AM

NO! NO! [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Kerry couldn't. Wouldn't. Kerry as Minority Leader?

Nah. He'd have to show up.

Posted at 09:49 AM

A DRINK FOR COST [Cliff May]
It’s worth going back through Jay Cost’s posts on the Horse Race Blog to see just how precisely he called it – and to understand the logic behind good polling. And to recall why he was able to argue that the exit polls were garbage.

I want to buy that man a bourbon and branch water.

Also, laurels are due to Alan J. Lichtman, author of “The Keys to the White House.”

He’s been predicting a Bush victory for months—yes months -- based on his leading indicators.

Zogby is another story...

Posted at 09:48 AM

THE MOOSE CONCEDED [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
See here.

Posted at 09:45 AM

DASCHLE [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Fox News now says he will be addressing people in two hours.

Posted at 09:42 AM

THEOLOGICAL SUPPORT [John Derbyshire]
A reader in the top left corner: "Derb---Indeed, gloating is a sin ...and Martin Luther said to us, 'If you must sin, sin boldly!' All the better to realize the grace in God's forgiveness. What a great outcome for your first voting experience as a U.S. citizen, eh?"

Absolutely. Would be nice to think I swung it -- but in New York? I do glow slightly, though, to think of myself in the rightmost digit of that marvelous popular-vote margin.

Posted at 09:40 AM

THE AWAY MESSAGE ... [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
...of a very tired college student in Pennsylvania:
FOR THE RECORD PEOPLE. It IS actually possible for an educated person to CHOOSE to be Republican. Get off your high horses and accept the fact that people think differently from you. Don't dare insult my beliefs unless you have a logical arguement to come at me with. Otherwise, I'm tired of it.

Go ahead, one more person, scream how its the uneducated in the country who choose Bush. Which, by the way, WONDERFUL sentiment, saying 51% of the country are fools. Pick a fight with me. I dare you.

YES. I am a 21 year old woman in college, even planning on graduate school. Yes I am middle class. YES, EVEN THIS MEANS I CAN BE A REPUBLICAN. Cause guess what? If I choose to be Democrat because of those things, THEN I'm not thinking. I think, and I choose Republican.

Posted at 09:39 AM

HMM [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
There's some Chianti left.

Posted at 09:35 AM

RE: BANNED [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Yeah, no. Don't get any ideas.

Posted at 09:35 AM

BANNED IN BEIJING [John Derbyshire]
How can NRO get itself banned in China? An e-correspondent in that country advises me that the best way to get the ChiComs to block us would be to post some hard-core porn on the site.

Over to you, guys.

Posted at 09:34 AM

PLUS 5 [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Bill Frist, on CNN, could not look happier. Well, I guess he could--if it hit 6!

Posted at 09:33 AM

A FEW PEOPLS PASSED THIS ALONG LAST NIGHT [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
I just heard Tavis Smiley (an African American pundit) on ABC say that "George Bush has certainly raised the bar in terms of thanking the African American community for their support", citing DR. Rice and C. Powell, and that JFK, should he win "tonight or in the days ahead", will have to "clear the bar high bar that W set".

Posted at 09:32 AM

HAS ANYONE [KJL]
see Terry McAulliffe?

Posted at 09:32 AM

GOING YARD [John J. Miller]
It's a little breezy outside this morning, and my Bush-Cheney yard sign just blew over. I'll take that as perfect timing, rather than a bad omen.

Posted at 09:29 AM

"CLEAR WINNER COULD TAKE WEEKS TO DETERMINE" [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
from washingtonpost. I really believe this ends today. As Cliff notes, there are few Dems willing to go out on the line for Kerry at this point. It seemed clear to me around the time Carville conceded last night.

Posted at 09:20 AM

VIC KAMBER [Cliff May]
On CNN (with me about an hour ago) also wants to take as much time as necessary to count all the provisional votes and absentee ballots in Ohio.

Frankly, I would not expect many Democrats to break from that party line until Kedwards says so or until peasants with pitchforks are at the door.

Privately – by which I mean in the CNN green room -- I’ve now spoken to two prominent Democrats who acknowledge not only that Bush won, but also that this was a huge election for Republicans.

Keep in mind: The country is split almost down the middle. Nevertheless, the Republicans keep the White House, the Senate, the House, a majority of governorships and (I believe, though I haven’t really checked) a majority of state legislatures as well.

That’s could be called over-achieving.

Posted at 09:18 AM

WEIRDER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
A reader suggests: "Perhaps he'll pull those votes out of that magic hat? You know, the one he brought back from his service in Cambodia."

Posted at 09:16 AM

I WAS JUST ASKED [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
"are we ever going to know who the president is quickly again?" Answer, I think: The next time the GOP loses?

See, for instance, Pete Coors.

Posted at 09:14 AM

PAGING MICHAEL MOORE [Steven Hayward]
"Paging Michael Moore! Paging Michael Moore! Put down that hoagie! Your one-way flight to Paris is boarding now at Gate Z-801. You have the middle seat, between Alec Baldwin and Barbra Streisand."

Posted at 09:13 AM

DASCHLE [KJL]
to make a statement "later this hour" (FNC)

Posted at 09:12 AM

"SHOULD WE BE WORRIED?" [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
I asked Mary Matalin when Andy Card appeared rather than the president. She replied, "No. we want the official declaration of victory to be unifying and dignified, which would have been tough at 5 a.m. All are completely confident of outcome."

It makes sense, from their vantagepoint.

Posted at 09:10 AM

THE GLUE THAT HOLDS THE DEMS TOGETHER [John Hillen]
If Kerry doesn’t concede by mid-morning, he can only be thinking and being advised one thing: that the Democratic party needs to keep its only centripetal force and organizing principle going….that the Republicans can only rule by illegitimate means. The we-was-robbed-in-2000 zietgeist generated record fundraising, high-visibility support, and provided an emotional core for the Democratic party that it had been missing since Watergate.

It is a victory of historical proportions for Bush. Decisive control of the House and Senate and a popular majority of 3.5 million that even Michael Moore must notice. Kerry is an experienced politician – he doesn’t want to be President in that environment even if every provisional ballot in Ohio was accepted and went 100% Kerry – which it can’t of course.

A failure to concede by this morning can only mean the Dems, lacking anything to rally around for the next four years, want to keep the victim-magic going and will hang on long enough to create the auro of “another stolen election” for their base.

Posted at 09:06 AM

CNN REPORTS ON PROVISIONAL BALLOTS [John Hillen]
CNN just reported that of the first 20,000 provisional Ohio ballots counted that 2/3rd went to the President. Don’t know where they got that information.

Posted at 09:06 AM

KEDWARDS WILL SAY NOTHING [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
until at least 10 am (FNC)

Posted at 09:05 AM

CALL ME ANY NAME YOU WANT IF YOU SUBSCRIBE AFTER [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
A few of these this morning:
KLO, I take back everything I said yesterday regarding the early exit poll reporting you did. We all owe you a great deal of gratitude for your service, and by the way you have gained another subscriber. Job well done.

Posted at 09:04 AM

THE NRA [Ramesh Ponnuru]
sees a 4-seat pick-up for gun rights in the Senate.

Posted at 09:03 AM

THAT SAID (ABOUT THE WEE HOURS) [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Sounds like the White House is still poised to announce victorym with or without Kerry's concession? (still works for me.)

Posted at 09:02 AM

"THE CATHOLIC VOTE" [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Leonard Leo, Catholic adviser to the Bush-Cheney campaign tells me:
1. Catholics voted for President Bush over Senator Kerry by 51 to 48. That is a 4 percent gain over 2000.

2. Among regular Mass-attending Catholics, President Bush by 55-44 percent. This number was not reported in 2000, but the result is clearly impressive and debunks any suggestion that the Catholic vote is a myth.

3. The gain in Catholic support (4 points) surpassed the gain in the Protestant vote (2 points).

Posted at 08:58 AM

BTW [KJL]
I really needed to get away from my computer around 6am. I do think the president did the right thing not declaring victory. Let the Dems be Soros Losers....

Posted at 08:56 AM

BOB BECKEL [KJL]
(on FNC) wants to take two or three days....sigh...

Posted at 08:55 AM

CRANE LOSS [John J. Miller]
Sad to see Rep. Phil Crane lose.

Posted at 08:53 AM

MELLMAN! [Cliff May]
Yesterday morning, I noted that Democratic pollster Mark S. Mellman had a surprising column in the Hill. A fiercely partisan Democrat working for Kerry, he predicted that Bush would win 51.6% of the vote.

I can only imagine what kind of day he had yesterday, how he was treated yesterday by his comrades inside the tent.

This morning it turns out that Mark was dead on.

Let’s give the man a round of applause for his honesty – and his courage.

In connection to this, it also should be said – and Jay Cost did say it many times in many ways in recent days – good social science will out.

Posted at 08:50 AM

FROM A GOP STRATEGIST WHO'S BEEN WATCHING THE S.D. RACE [KJL]
John Thune won in the closing weeks of the campaign because of the potency of two overlapping themes:

1) Daschle talks conservative in South Dakota but acts the opposite in Washington.

2) Daschle has lost touch with basic South Dakota values.

The issues that drove these two themes in the closing days were the Federal Marriage Amendment, Daschle’s patently false pro-life and pro-marriage claims, Daschle’s record of obstructionism – especially his blocking of President Bush’s conservative judicial nominees, and the brouhaha over Daschle’s official residency.

As NRO has noted, the 527 “You’re Fired” ran a massive television and radio campaign in the closing weeks of the campaign using Daschle’s opposition to the Federal Marriage Amendment to question whether Daschle’s “heart is still in the heartland.” That phrase became a shorthand expression for the growing perception that the answer was “no.” The ad also raised the specter of liberal activist judges – complementary with the judicial obstruction charges being raised by Thune and others. The ad also linked Daschle to “his pals in Hollywood” effectively touching on the idea that Daschle does not share basic South Dakota values.

Daschle’s campaign also took the threat from the marriage issue so seriously that they ran an “over-the-top” ad saying Daschle was both pro-life and pro-marriage. Most observers agree that this ad backfired on Daschle – since his record – particularly on the life issue was so extensively the opposite of his claims.

At the end of the day, Daschle lost because what he had been doing for years finally caught up with him – and same sex marriage was the new issue in the equation that finally drove it home.

Posted at 08:47 AM

WAKE UP, KERRYSPOT [KJL]
Can we just say who is NOT a great closer? EVEN if they magically found enough votes....

Posted at 08:44 AM

THE DEMS' DECISION [Jonah Goldberg]
Went to bed right before Edwards announcement refusing to concede. To be honest, I can't get too worked up about it. The entire Democratic Party is built around a cult of "never again" with regards to accepting their "victim" status in Presidential politics. Let them have the night. But I think they are making a grave mistake if they are counting on the patience of the American people to endure for very long the clear loser refusing to concede -- especially when it's clear he can't win. But give 'em the morning. Let them have their coffee. Let the propellor beanie types come in and explain things to them.

Posted at 07:24 AM

MILLER'S CONFIDENT [KJL]
Here's his winners and losers. Left out the football curse!

Posted at 06:01 AM

SEE YOU [KJL]
in a bit

Posted at 06:01 AM

"A CONVINCING ELECTORAL COLLEGE VICTORY" [KJL]
This is more Card: "President Bush decides to give Senator Kerry the respect of more time..."

Posted at 05:43 AM

"STATISTICALLY INSURMOUTABLE" [KJL]
Card says re Ohio. "President Bush has won in the state of Ohio." Again, then why Mr. Card instead of the President?

Posted at 05:42 AM

SO [KJL]
Andy Card is declaring victory.? Weird. Saying it's a decisive popular vote win.

So why not the president do it?

Posted at 05:41 AM

NRO AROUND THE WORLD [KJL]
In the last few hours, I have received e-mails from readers in: Israel Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Saigon Brunei United Arab Emirates Peru Australia Czech Republic Malaysia London Bulgaria Moscow Indonesia Canada Holland Switzerland Mongolia Tanzania Pakistan Kuwait Iraq Bahrain Malawi Singapore China Japan Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia (!) Cambodia, Micronesia, Russia, India, England, Ireland, Germany, Rome...

Posted at 05:38 AM

WE HAVE A WINNER [KJL]
In the Afghan election

Posted at 05:36 AM

FRAUD READ: "MIXED BAG" [KJL]
John Fund (who wrote ) tells me: "us attorneys and media coverage held it down in some places...whereas in Philly and Cleveland it ran rampant..."

Posted at
05:30 AM

AN INDYMEDIA POST [KJL]
Re: There better be some riots tonight ... I can't believe Bush won. Where did we go wrong?

Personally, I played my bongos at many rallies to defeat Bush. I had some phat beats going sometimes for hours, I really gave it my all.

How could this happen?

Posted at 05:16 AM

CNN REPORTING [KJL]
No W "tonight."

Posted at 05:10 AM

NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT [KJL]
for a subscription plug--do you subscribe to NR?

that's how you know I am still awake.

Posted at 05:09 AM

PETE COORS [KJL]
takes defeat like a man

Posted at 05:06 AM

CNN: WISC FOR KERRY [Rich Lowry]

Posted at 05:02 AM

YAY! [KJL]
Larry King says goodnight.

Posted at 05:02 AM

YEAH! [Rich Lowry]
Fox & Friends about to come on the air.

Posted at 04:59 AM

CHRIS MATTHEWS ON OHIO [Rich Lowry]
“That's a lot of votes to make up on a recount, isn't it?”

Posted at 04:57 AM

O.K. [KJL]
Time to move from the Chianti to coffee. On the hour deliveries of it...

Posted at 04:54 AM

DIVIDED? [Jim Robbins]
MSNBC Headline: "Four years later voters more deeply divided." But Bush got an outright majority -- has not been done since 1988!

Posted at 04:53 AM

S.D. [KJL]
From Ave Maria List:
ANN ARBOR, Mich. - Senator Tom Daschle was defeated tonight by challenger John Thune in a race whose outcome was largely determined by Daschle's betrayal of South Dakota values, particularly on the issue of abortion.

"The people of South Dakota have spoken that they want a Senator who will protect life," said Joseph Cella, executive Director of The Ave Maria List.

"South Dakotans are people of common sense and they have zero tolerance for politicians like Tom Daschle who say one thing in Washington and do another in their home state," said Cella. "Having a 90% pro-abortion voting record just doesn't square with a state that is 75% pro-life," Cella added....

Posted at 04:51 AM

THE COMPETITION... [Rich Lowry]
...in this election was always between 1992 and 1994: was it 1992, with the liberal part of the electorate energized to fire an incumbent Republican president, or was it 1994, with a ginned up conservative base changing the composition of the electorate. 1994 won out, and people are starting to realize--they have been just been talking about it on ABC--what a big victory this is for conservatives.

Posted at 04:50 AM

"A GREEN STATE"=NM [KJL]
says Wolf Blitzer. Like Ohio. Won't call.

Posted at 04:49 AM

PETER JENNINGS JUST SAID: [Rich Lowry]
“the liberal years in America are over”!

Posted at 04:48 AM

SOCIAL SECURITY [Rich Lowry]
Still amazed Dems didn't make more of it.

Posted at 04:48 AM

MINN FOR KERRY [KJL]
NBC calling

Posted at 04:42 AM

MORE AP "REPORTING" [KJL]
As for Bush, declaring victory is nothing more than a weapon in political warfare. It has no bearing on who will serve as president a minute past noon Jan. 20, 2005, but the White House hopes the tactic will undercut challenges and create a sense of inevitability about Bush's second term.

Posted at 04:37 AM

"FAIRLY THIS TIME." [Shannen W. Coffin]
I'm pretty sure the last one was fair, too.

Posted at 04:34 AM

CNN [KJL]
reporting Mel's declaring victory. yay.

Posted at 04:33 AM

A THEORY [KJL]
"Do the anchors get triple time after midnight? Maybe that's why they STILL WON'T CALL BUSH THE WINNER!!!"

Posted at 04:29 AM

LARRY KING [KJL]
just knocked W.'s as-yet-undelivered speech. It won't be important, he says.

Who's idea was it to keep Larry King all night?

Posted at 04:28 AM

READERS REPORT [KJL]
Brokaw just said, after carefully explaining the Kedwards position, that "The President and his people feel as though they have won, fairly this time...."

Posted at 04:23 AM

BTW--NRO PIECES [KJL]
there is a derbyshire and moran up...

Posted at 04:23 AM

W. VICTORY SPEECH TO COME [KJL]
Ap reporting

Posted at 04:21 AM

ABC CALLED FOR THUNE [Barbara Comstock]
and Lisa Murkowski is winning -- so we have a pickup of 4 and still waiting re Martinez which should make it 5!

Posted at 04:19 AM

HOW TO TRACK ELECTION LAWSUITS [Jim Boulet Jr.]
Full text of election-related lawsuits in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere can be downloaded here.

Posted at 04:18 AM

TURN-OUT [Rich Lowry]
The last few weeks a top GOP operative/strategist kept on telling me the GOP energy level and turnout machine would at least match that of the Democrats this year. At times I was doubtful. At times I think even he was a little doubtful. Turned out--no pun intended--he was right! Incredible.

Posted at 04:18 AM

YES! YES! [KJL]
Thune victory speech about the begin. GLory! Glory!

Posted at 04:17 AM

ALASKA [Barbara Comstock]
Murkowski coming on....

Posted at 04:16 AM

STEPHANOPOULOS... [John Podhoretz]
...already pushing Hillary for '08 at 4:11am on November 3, 2004.

Posted at 04:13 AM

TIM RUSSERT... [Rich Lowry]
...just said a senior Kerry aide told him its a “long shot.”

Posted at 04:12 AM

JULIAN EPSTEIN... [Rich Lowry]
...the Democratic lawyer, was just on Fox saying that he thinks it going to be very tough for Kerry to get the votes he needs to overturn Ohio.

Posted at 04:12 AM

WEIRD [KJL]
to finish Chianti at 4 am?

Posted at 04:10 AM

OK [KJL]
So smart dude not so smart.

Posted at 04:10 AM

AP/ABC CALLS FOR THUNE [KJL]

Posted at 04:07 AM

SMART DUDE PREDICTION [KJL]
"Don't count on Daschle losing. None of the votes have been counted on the two Indian reservations that cheated for him last time. More votes needed, 8000. But I bet you he magically finds them"

Insert swear word of choice.

Posted at 04:01 AM

BUSH LEAD NARROWING IN NM? [KJL]
NM lead down to 1,777+

Posted at 04:00 AM

ABC CALLS NEVADA [KJL]

Posted at 03:55 AM

A WAG [KJL]
John Edwards: "I see two americas - one where Bush is the winner, and one where Kerry still has a chance!"

Posted at 03:53 AM

SO HEARTENED [KJL]
By large numbers of these I'm getting: "I’m an Army officer sitting in Iraq and reading NRO online. Just thought I would let you know…add it to your list of countries of people reading your updates. All I have to say is thank God Bush pulled this one out. "

Posted at 03:51 AM

CBS CALLS NEVADA FOR W [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

Posted at 03:46 AM

NM [KJL]
CNN still won't call....Says Sec't of State won't certify until tomorrow.

Posted at 03:46 AM

SAD [Chip Griffin]
That Kerry has less class than Nixon, who chose not to pursue much more legitimate challenges in 1960.

Posted at 03:41 AM

EDWARDS [Mark Steyn]
Edwards, who was a disastrous pick as V-P, was mega-lame in Copley Square. How can you trot out that "make every vote count" line - which is Democratic code for "lawsuits" - when Bush is ahead by four million votes and heading to break President Reagan's 1984 record as the most votes ever stacked up by any President? Didn't their man Michael Moore demand that both Kerry and Bush agree that whoever wins the "most votes" should become President?

These guys have no class, and, while Andrew Sullivan was certainly gracious, his candidates are graceless to the end.

Posted at 03:40 AM

EW [KJL]
Kerry sends Edwards with message of hope

By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press | November 3, 2004

BOSTON -- Unwilling to concede defeat, John Kerry dispatched smooth-talking running mate John Edwards to deliver his trademark message of hope to supporters and a divided nation waiting for a president. . . .

Posted at 03:39 AM

EW [KJL]
Kerry sends Edwards with message of hope

By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press | November 3, 2004

BOSTON -- Unwilling to concede defeat, John Kerry dispatched smooth-talking running mate John Edwards to deliver his trademark message of hope to supporters and a divided nation waiting for a president. . . .

Posted at 03:39 AM

SPARE ME [KJL]
Wolf Blitzer (who I like) is being all holier than thou about not reporting exit polls. Be holier than thou about not reporting the actual real news right now.

Posted at 03:38 AM

ISN'T THIS FANTASTIC?! [John Podhoretz]
The media won't call it, even though it's happened. They're graceless. So is Kerry. They are tying themselves to this depressing loser. It's everything I ever wanted.

Posted at 03:36 AM

MY FRIEND AND TONIGHT'S DINNER GUEST... [Rob Long]
Ruth Shalit just posed an interesting thought experiment: imagine the situation was reversed, and it was George Bush who was down 3 million votes in the popular count, and almost 200,000 in Ohio. Do you think the assembled network braintrust would be so considerate and courtly about a Bush campaign fight in Ohio as they're being about Kerry's?

A question that answers itself.

Posted at 03:35 AM

MAYBE I'M GETTING PUNCHY, BUT... [Rob Long]
...from what I understand about the Mafia, when a guy just doesn't get it, and threatens to take down "our thing" by being stubborn or making a fuss, a couple capos get together and take the guy "for a ride."

I nominate Ted Kennedy. He's good in the driver's seat, right?

Posted at 03:34 AM

DOESN'T [KJL]
pa. look closer than ohio?

Posted at 03:33 AM

AP [KJL]
seems to have called Nevada for Bush

Posted at 03:32 AM

RE: 75, 000 [KJL]
Chart evidently incomplete

Posted at 03:31 AM

PLEASE [KJL]
someone wake up Clinton and have him tell Kerry to concede

Posted at 03:30 AM

CNN [KJL]
says they are being told W will declare if more states are called. I'm game. So game.

Posted at 03:30 AM

GOOD IDEA [KJL]
From smart guy: " I think I need to start doing some Nexis searches to see what dems said about the popular vote four years ago..."

Posted at 03:28 AM

COULD [KJL]
W. just declare victory without Kerry concession?

Posted at 03:27 AM

JENNINGS [KJL]
to Ed Gillespie: "Is it possible for you to answer ONE question without spin?"

MSM Meltdown

Posted at 03:24 AM

ONLY [KJL]
75,000 provisional ballots?!

If so, I'm suing Kedwards.

Posted at 03:23 AM

OY [KJL]
"we need to get this over. Jennings is quoting de Toqueville "

Posted at 03:22 AM

JIM ROBBINS SAYS [KJL]
We also call Iowa and Nevada.

Posted at 03:20 AM

MY GUESS [John Podhoretz]
If Kerry keeps this up and does not concede by 10 am, polls tomorrow will show 75 percent of the country thinks he ought to. There will not be a single serious Democratic politician who will take a stand on behalf of an 11-day provisional-ballot count process. And then Kerry will concede, in a genuinely humiliating display of ill grace.

Posted at 03:19 AM

REALLY BIG TURNOUT [Chip Griffin]
C-SPAN site has Bush up by 5% in New Mexico -- with a whopping 101% of the precincts reporting. And they still haven't called it.

Posted at 03:18 AM

WE'RE A MEDIA OUTLET [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Can I just call New Mexico? Called for Bush. Now, President Bush, come declare victory. Let John Edwards sue.

Posted at 03:18 AM

MARION BARRY [John J. Miller]
He was formally elected to DC's city council tonight. His fate was really determined during the Democratic primaries in September, but I can guarantee you national Democrats are hoping nobody talks about his win this morning. So let's not forget.

Posted at 03:08 AM

CALL A STATE ALREADY!!! [KJL]
ABC reporting Bush will go to Reagan building when one more state is called.

Posted at 03:06 AM

RAHTER TIRED [DrewCline]
Dan Rather is so tired, he can no longer hide his Texas accent. And Brokaw sounds like he's being played back on a tape recorder with rapidly expiring batteries.

Posted at 03:05 AM

RISING AND SHINING [John J. Miller]
Just got up from about two and a half hours of sleep -- must get ready for BBC soon. Things were looking hopeful when I dozed off, and of course are looking very good now. Assuming current trends hold, this election is better than 2000. Best news, of course, is Bush. GOP also wins second-biggest contest of the night in South Dakota (again, assuming trends hold). So what's the most disappointing loss of the night? I would have to say Coors in Colorado. He and his family have done so much for conservatives over the years, I really wish he could have gotten this win. But if you had told me days ago that Coors would be the most disappointing result of the night, I would have jumped for joy. And if you had told me that hours ago -- like on my train ride home, when those afternoon exit polls had compelled me to write down a list of reasons for why Kerry defeated Bush -- I just wouldn't have believed it. Will be keeping my fingers crossed for a while, but right now this is a good, good, good feeling.

Posted at 03:04 AM

MAKE THAT [KJL]
"tonight"

Posted at 03:03 AM

CNN: BUSH LIKELY TO SPEAK TONIGHT [KJL]

Posted at 03:03 AM

FROM A READER IN MOSCOW [KJL]
" Putin and Berlusconi spent the evening together at Putin’s dacha watching the results, if they were reading The Corner, I cannot say…"

Posted at 03:02 AM

DU [KJL]
invading Ohio? (Watch foul language and insanity)

Posted at 02:59 AM

DEBATING [KJL]
whether I should bail or not. Nevada could get called soon. 81% of the vote in, but only a 2% margin.

Posted at 02:58 AM

THE OHIO MARGIN [John Derbyshire]
Reader Brendan: "So I worked out, based on the sampling of Ohio precincts that have responded (as of 11:30 PM PST or thereabouts), as to how many of the '250,000' outstanding ballots Kerry would have to win. He would have to get 78% of them. But based on the precinct returns from therest of the state, the probability of this happening is ~5.4 in 100,000. It is therefore a 99.9946% chance that Bush has won that state based on the returns and my 250,000 number. Derb could work this out beyond a shadow of a doubt, but Kerry's chances of winning are about the same as his being hit by lightning.... Democrats are as clueless and classless as always."

Derb could work this out? Well, I could... if wasn't stoned on No-Doz and dizzy from Ovaltine. I'm not sure I could work out my own phone number at this point.

Posted at 02:55 AM

RE: DAN RATHER [Rod Dreher]
A fellow NRO-nik on Dan Rather Watch, but with sharper ears, writes: "Who knows? He said, 'Quien sabe? Who knows?'" OK, my bad. I misheard. Still, I think that's weirder than saying "Kemo Sabe."

Posted at 02:53 AM

HMMM. HEARING FROM WALL STREET [KJL]
The dow, as we know, dipped significantly today on news of bogus and wild exit polls. Some traders said it was definately market manipulation. Heard whispers it was George Soros using the moveon.org clowns to circulate the numbers.

I do not want to be a conspiracy type, but Luskin has some interesting stuff pre-election.... No idea though.

Posted at 02:52 AM

IDEA FROM FORMERLY BUMMED NOW MAD [KJL]
GOP Pollster type: "Someone in the Ohio Republican Party needs to get into an editing studio tonight and create post-election ads tarring Kedwards for trying to steal the vote in Ohio with out of state lawyers"

Posted at 02:47 AM

A SIDE NOTE [Rob Long]
Watching CNN, does anyone wonder why it's such an also-ran, faltering network? It's got to be the least interesting, least dynamic, least illuminating broadcast anywhere.

Except for Larry King, who is sort of the crazy old uncle of the gathering, asking lots of irrelevant questions, but also trying to nail down exactly when he's going to be allowed to go to bed. He keeps saying, "so, we're not going to get an answer here tonight. right?" And I really wish Wolf would just let him get in his jammies and go...

Posted at 02:46 AM

NRO AVAILABLE IN CHINA [John Derbyshire]
Why aren't we banned in China? Beats me. I was surprised to find this three years ago, when I was posting from China. They still haven't got wise to us? It's a bit disturbing. I mean, we OUGHT to be banned in China. I shall redouble my efforts...

Posted at 02:41 AM

THIS IS THE PROBLEM WITH... [Rob Long]
...the Democratic party: there's no grownup, no headmaster, to place the call to the Kerry folks and say, "it's over" and protect the party's long term reputation. A proper adult response to a (probable) 3 million popular vote discrepancy is, "it's over, John. You did good; you fought well; don't embarrass us." Who's going to do that? Terry McAulliffe? Bill Clinton? Hillary Clinton?

Imagine that call.

Posted at 02:41 AM

EDWARDS AS NEXT VP [Drew Cline]
Edwards was introduced as "the next Vice President of the United States." Well, now we know who Hillary's 2008 running mate will be.

Posted at 02:39 AM

DARN [Translation: "I'm a lawyer and I'm gonna sue!"]
hawaii for Kerry on NBC

Posted at 02:33 AM

EDWARDS [KJL]
Translation: "I'm a lawyer and I'm gonna sue!"

Posted at 02:33 AM

OVERHEARD AT THE NYPOST [KJL]
The Post is currently waiting to find out if it can safely say on the cover, "BUSH WINS."

Post staffer: "I got an idea. We'll put 'BUSH WINS--AND HE PICKS GEPHARDT.'"

Posted at 02:31 AM

IS THERE NOT A GENTLEMAN IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? [KJL]

Posted at 02:29 AM

EDWARDS [KJL]
Looks tired and ticked.

But "we can wait one more night." [for "victory."]

Posted at 02:29 AM

"JOHN EDWARDS... [KJL]
the young running mate fo John Kerry."

Not so, Chris. And it's over for him if Kedwards loses.

Posted at 02:28 AM

BRIT AT THE OUTER LIMITS [John Derbyshire]
Brit Hume: "We're getting to the outer limits of our own coherence here..." You've got to feel for these guys at this point in the night.

Posted at 02:26 AM

ALASKA [Barbara Comstock]
looking like Lisa Murkowski may pull it out....

Posted at 02:24 AM

FOX: [Andy McCarthy]
Just a lengthy conversation about-hoped for bipartisanship from Ted Kennedy in counselling Kerry concession. Next, no doubt, hoped-for bipartisanship about how Reagan was right after all. Right.

Posted at 02:22 AM

RE: DAN RATHER MELTDOWN [Rod Dreher]
You are so right, Barbara! I tuned in to CBS for about 10 minutes, and heard Dan the Man say these actual words: "...and Ohio, Kemo Sabe, who knows? Back in a minute." He actually called his viewers "Kemo Sabe."

Posted at 02:21 AM

GRACIOUS [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Jonah, Some blowhards are presently marching down St. Mark's St. chanting, "NOT OUR PRESIDENT". We won. Best, Nick

Posted at 02:18 AM

OHIO UPDATE [KJL]
Kat, Kerry is still around 130,000 down in Ohio w/ 96% of the ballots in. They have not closed the margin at all.

Posted at 02:17 AM

WHO KNEW? [KJL]
K-Lo, "Anyone at the North Pole? Anywhere especially exotic?" I know of, and have myself, read NRO from inside the Arctic Circle! There are some oil fields west of ANWR in Alaska with a strong NRO fan-base!

Posted at 02:16 AM

IN MASS... [KJL]
Ted Kennedy just entered Kerry's Beacon Hill home

Posted at 02:15 AM

ASSESSMENTS [Shannen Coffin]
The biggest loser tonight? The exit polls. They consistently trended against Bush all day. But they also told a story that just didn't jibe. (Oh, and Kerry's a pretty big loser too)

Posted at 02:14 AM

GOODNESS [KJL]
Former NR intern Jason Steorts e-mails: "I just noticed your post in the Corner--about somebody sitting in an internet cafe in Nanjing, China, reading NRO. Strangely enough, I too am sitting in an internet cafe in Nanjing, China, reading NRO. How many of us can there be?" How many, indeed?!

Posted at 02:11 AM

WE'RE BEING READ EVERYWHERE? [KJL]
Another reader: "Ditto on the mail from China - I'm in Japan and don't know what I'd do without The Corner since we lost FOX news!" I've gotten Kuwait and Germany. Ireland and Brazil. All over Iraq. Anyone at the North Pole? Anywhere especially exotic?

Posted at 02:10 AM

RE: EDWARDS [KJL]
Come out to say something about the race. Gosh, you people.

Posted at 02:08 AM

"WE ARE WINNING OHIO" [KJL]
CBS saying, from David Wade in Kerry camp. John Edwards evidently about to come out.

Posted at 02:07 AM

REVISED [KJL]
Maybe he concedes by 4?

Posted at 02:05 AM

CNN [KJL]
Sigh. Won't call Ohio. "Too Close to call."

Posted at 02:04 AM

CORNERITES NEED TO WATCH TV [Barbara Comstock]
Dan Rather.....just for the sheer pleasure of the total meltdown....

Posted at 02:02 AM

RE: KERRY [KJL]
P.S. I don't believe. He concedes by 3.

?

Posted at 02:01 AM

KERRY [KJL]
MsNbc reporting Kerry is not leaving for any speech any time soon.

Posted at 02:01 AM

COOL E-MAILS [KJL]
you get at 2 am:
Hey, thanks so much for staying up late and keeping these reports coming. I'm watching the election from Nanjing, China (where, of course, it is the middle of the day), and because of assorted internet screening techniques, I can't get most of the major US news outlets' webpages on my computer. National Review (thank goodness), is no problem.

Incidentally, every Nanjing taxi driver I've talked to in the last two weeks was hoping for Bush. They knew what to expect with him, and Powell made that nice, strong statement on Taiwan recently. My absentee Bush vote did not break the tide in Minnesota, but such is life.
Derb: How is it we are not blocked in China?

Posted at 02:00 AM

MICHAEL BARONE [KJL]
thinks Ohio is safe for Bush (on FNC).

Posted at 01:57 AM

NBC IS KERRY WAKE TERRITORY [John Hillen]
How will he rebuild his life, what went wrong, etc, etc.

Posted at 01:53 AM

LOSER [KJL]
"Osama bin Losin'" by Claudia Rosett

Posted at 01:52 AM

RE: FOR THE RECORD [KJL]
It is. But you would have done the same thing.

Posted at 01:50 AM

FOR THE RECORD [Jonah Goldberg]
Sullivan's final post on the election is quite gracious and fair.

Posted at 01:47 AM

SD UPDATE [KJL]
South Dakota - 88%

Daschle - D 160,216 48.90%
Thune - R 167,439 51.10%

Difference for Thune: +7,223

Shannon and Todd Counties have not reported. These are the same counties that were outstanding two years ago when Tim Johnson "found" enough votes to defeat John Thune.

Posted at 01:45 AM

I MAY BE WRONG [KJL]
But I think Kerry concedes before daylight in Boston. I can't imagine his advisers are saying anything different. Notice how near no dems are making the case for him...and who has much invested in this besides the Kerry family? Ok, the media, but still...they've near conceded too. See the faces?

Posted at 01:43 AM

DAILY KOS [KJL]
"This is just the beginning, not the end. Regardless of who takes that oath next January we still have a war to wage. We won't wage it with violence, but by building a solid foundation for a new progressive movement. "

Posted at 01:39 AM

MINORITY LEADER [Andrew Cline]
So, if Daschle loses, who is the new minority leader, Kerry or Specter? How about this: Kerry loses the election, then can't even get elected Minority Leader of the Senate.

Posted at 01:38 AM

BUSH [KJL]
has 249 ECV

Posted at 01:34 AM

THE KERRY CAMPAIGN'S GONNA FIGHT [Jonah Goldberg]
Sounds like a horrible call.

Posted at 01:34 AM

WASH STATE FOR KERRY--11 ECV [KJL]
CNN

Posted at 01:33 AM

CNN [KJL]
Kerry camp statement: "The vote count in Ohio has not been completed...."

Posted at 01:32 AM

I IMAGINE [KJL]
the Clintons are relieved....

Posted at 01:30 AM

BY MY COUNT [Rich Lowry]
If Bush holds Nevada, wins New Mexico, and wins Wisconisn (put aside Wisconsin and Hawaii), he's at 289 and any Ohio litigation is irrelvant. Because even if Ohio were thrown into doubt, Bush would be at 269--a number that wins the presidency, because he wins if it goes to the House.

Posted at 01:28 AM

FORGIVE ME, ANDREW [KJL]
The American people have spoken.

Posted at 01:28 AM

DAN RATHER [Andrew Stuttaford]
“We'd rather be last than wrong.” No further comment necessary.

Posted at 01:26 AM

IN PRAISE OF ZELL MILLER [KJL]
Michelle Malkin here.

Posted at 01:25 AM

THOUGHTS [KJL]
Janice Crouse e-mails:
As the dust settles, we are beginning to see how heavily this election was influenced by concern about moral values. After a campaign focusing on the threat of terrorism and the war in Iraq, this development will surprise those from the Left –– and Right ––who dismissed moral issues and social conservatives as irrelevant. And, in fact, those who view the appeal to moral values as mere political manipulation and ideological posturing have a basic misunderstanding of people of faith and Main Street Americans. The moral values that were a top priority in this election –– abortion, embryonic stem cell research, same sex unions, etc. –– are values rooted in deep religious beliefs. In addition, at another level they are the values that form the basis of democracy –– moral boundaries and personal responsibility, respect for life and human dignity, freedom, etc. –– and are the essence of what it means to be American. President Bush embodies those values and, during his first term, put people and policies into place that supported those values. Further, there was no way that patriotic Americans would elect as president a person who betrayed his military buddies and trashed his nation’s reputation. Nor would Americans choose as president a person who surrendered the nation’s leadership in the world arena. Bush’s strong, resolute stance on terrorism as well as his unwavering position on pro-life, pro-marriage and pro-family issues resonated with mainstream Americans. The Left has tried to portray these moral values as extremist; Americans have resoundingly said that these values are American.

Posted at 01:24 AM

VITTER WINS [KJL]
Looks like no runoff - at 51 percent with 99 percent in.

Posted at 01:23 AM

POPULAR VOTE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Now may be the time to say I've been sort of hoping Bush would lose this. I would like liberals to spend half their energies over the next four years on 1) trying to impeach Bush with neither house of Congress and 2) trying to amend the Constitution to get rid of the Electoral College, since they can't possibly succeed.

Posted at 01:22 AM

I'M TOLD [KJL]
Mel Martinez is making his victory speech now.

Posted at 01:21 AM

YOU ALMOST FEEL SORRY FOR...NAH... [KJL]
NOR bud emails:
Just went outside my house for a smoke on Q Street in Georgetown and the lights are going out on numerous Kerry parties all along the block... Quiet groups of well-heeled liberals traipsing home all around... Long faces, consoling hugs and muttering all around... Just a snippet for you from the epicenter neighborhood of Kedwards country...

Posted at 01:20 AM

KERRY GETS NH (CNN) [KJL]

Posted at 01:18 AM

WOULD BE NICE... [Rich Lowry]
...if Bush got to 290, so any litigation in Ohio doesn't matter.

Posted at 01:15 AM

IOWA GOING FOR W.... [KJL]
? hearing moving ahead from Hugh Hewitt peeps.

Posted at 01:11 AM

BUSH WINS...COOL. [Jonah Goldberg]

But Kerry (and Michael Moore, Barbara Streisand, Dan Rather, Alec Baldwin, Tom Daschle, Janeane Garafalo, Mohammed El Baradei, Richard Clarke, Joe Wilson, Ron Suskind, Ron Reagan, Kofi Annan, Bon Jovi, Michael Stipe, P Diddy, Cameron Diaz, The New York Times, Al Franken, Molly Ivins, Graydon Carter and others) LOSE!


Posted at 01:11 AM

MSNBC REPORTS [KJL]
Presidential motorcade is assembling.

Posted at 01:05 AM

RUSSERT SAYS NO WAY FOR KERRY TO WIN [Chip Griffin]

Posted at 01:03 AM

"REPORTING" FROM REUTERS [KJL]
"A Republican-led Congress would help Bush push through a stepped-up conservative agenda. But it would provide plenty of partisan opposition to Kerry's vows to roll back many of the incumbent's initiatives, such as a tax cut that went largely to the rich. "

Posted at 01:02 AM

ALASKA GOES TO BUSH (CNN) [KJL]

Posted at 01:00 AM

DRUDGE SAYS: BUSH WINS [KJL]
Carville has to do it for ya.

Posted at 12:59 AM

ALOHA [KJL]
An email:
Our early numbers aren't that great but that's the absentee votes. Lines were very long here today and people were still voting over an hour after the polls closed (if they were in line at 6:00 they got to vote). It may be a while before we get good numbers. On the bright side - the more 'conservative' mayoral candidate in the hotly contested Honolulu County mayors race is ahead which should be good for us.

As for my 5 year olds take on it all:

upon going to pick up our mail today at the Print Shop where we have our mailbox. My 5 year old daughter announced to all who would listen that "we are voting for George Bush. John Kerry doesn't have a plan!"

Much Aloha

Elinor in Kailua, HI

Posted at 12:57 AM

CARVILLE SAYS BUSH WINS [Chip Griffin]

Posted at 12:55 AM

THE LEFT'S LINE TOMORROW [Ramesh Ponnuru]
1) Kerry was a terrible candidate. 2) You can't beat a wartime president. 3) Bush stole it. 3b). Even if he didn't steal it, he stole the last one and Republicans wouldn't have won otherwise.

Posted at 12:55 AM

BUSH LEAD SHRINKING IN OHIO? [KJL]

Posted at 12:55 AM

RESULTS [KJL]
Looks like Vietnam Veterans are going to enjoy the equivalent of that parade they never got.

Posted at 12:54 AM

DAILY KOS VERBATIM [Jonah Goldberg]

He put this up in the last 20 minutes or so:


by kos
Wed Nov 3rd, 2004 at 04:05:18 GMT

So far, no big surprises. Like I wrote below, we need surprises to win the presidency.
Ohio is not out of contention, not as long as the urban areas (like Cuyahoga county) fail to report in. My brother, who has been crunching numbers all night (he likes math), makes a persuassive case that Bush will have a 20K lead in Ohio without absentees after all urban precincts report. The absentees would decide the race.

Florida won't be called tonight, not without so many absentee ballots outstanding (1 million). I don't feel good about Florida, but those absentees are mostly from Dem areas according to MSNBC. It's not over.

NH looks ready to go to Kerry. And early Nevada results look good. Same with the rest of the Gore states except for New Mexico.

If we hold the Gore states, which is quite a reasonable assumption, and flip Nevada and New Hampshire, then we have the dreaded 269-269 results.

But Ohio would be the big prize.

Update: Nevermind Florida. It's been called for Bush. Let's hope it's been called prematurely.


Posted at 12:53 AM

NM [KJL]
wioth 52 percent in, looking good for W

Posted at 12:52 AM

TWO FAV QUESTIONS OF THE NIGHT [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Jennings to McCain: 'Do you feel used by the Bush campaign?' Brokaw to Frist: 'Are you going to ban abortion?'

Posted at 12:49 AM

I GUESS [KJL]
I take back anything mean I might have said out loud today about the American people. "Elected Clinton twice...."

Maybe

Posted at 12:48 AM

HAWAII [KJL]
Bushies want it...hopelessly optimistic? I told Mike Graham on the radio a bit ago we'd win it, just for fun.

Posted at 12:45 AM

JACKSONIAN AMERICA [Jonah Goldberg]

My buddy writes (I'll ID him in the Morning):


Allow me a purple moment:


It’s too soon to say (and I risk reading WAY too much into what is but one election) but if Bush wins in the way it’s looking he will win, with the states like Florida and Ohio breaking in the manner in which they are, I can’t help but think this is Jacksonian America – tribal, but wise -- asserting itself. And doing so without bravado, but nevertheless in a convincing manner; wishing to send a message to the rest of the world about the freedoms it guards with jealous intensity and its quiet but relentless faith in the future. If nothing else, I hope this gives enormous hope to the rest of the world that wondered if America would remain that “last best hope”. And I pray we ensure those hopes are not false ones.



Posted at 12:44 AM

FNC CALLS OHIO FOR W [KJL]

Posted at 12:43 AM

BUSHIE UPDATE: "IT'S OVER" [KJL]
Bush will win Ohio. Several GOP counties have yet to report. We lost Dem-heavy cuyahoga county by less than we lost 2000. Final margin projected to be Bush +3 in OH. maybe even outside provisional ballots

They believe win Wisconsin.
IA and NM are still close, but confident about both.
NV-- Dems needed big numbers out of Clarke County, and early returns show they did not.
NH -- still in hunt.

Posted at 12:43 AM

FOX CALLS OHIO FOR BUSH [Jonah Goldberg]

Posted at 12:41 AM

JOHN KERRY [Ramesh Ponnuru]
you are dismissed from duty.

Posted at 12:41 AM

OREGON [KJL]
CNN gives to Kerry. 7 EC votes

Posted at 12:40 AM

MORE OHIO [Jim Robbins]
For the past hour Ohio has been basically 51/48 Bush, with the vote margin staying around 130,000. No sign of significant closing. 82% counted. But there are the so called provisional ballots to contend with...

Posted at 12:40 AM

FIGHTING THE SANDMAN [John Derbyshire]
Boy, I can't do these all-nighters any more. Keep nodding off. Where's the No-Doz?

Each time I wake up it looks a little better, though. Uh-oh, New Hampshire flipped. I'll never trust Mark Steyn again.

Posted at 12:38 AM

GOOD BORDER NEWS [Mark Krikorian]
The presidential candidates succeeded in sweeping the immigration issue under the rug, but the returns from Congress are good news. Looking at the grades from Americans for Better Immigration (a low-immigration, pro-law-enforcement group) it looks like January will find a House and Senate more favorable toward immigration control. In all of the notable races, the winner is as good or better than his predecessor. In Texas, Pete Sessions (A+) stays and Martin Frost (D-) goes. Republicans kept the Oklahoma Senate seat, but traded Don Nickles (D+) for Tom Coburn (B+, based on his former tenure in the House). North Carolina traded up, replacing John Edwards (D) with Richard Burr (B). Thune wasn't very good on immigration while in the House (C+), but if he wins, he'd replace Daschle's D-. DeMint (B), Isakson (B-), and Vitter (B) (I hope) all replace senators with comparable grades, while Campbell (D+), Fitzgerald (D+), and Graham (F) were so bad, their replacements can't be much worse. And on the state level, the Arizona anti-illegal-immigration initiative requiring proof of eligibility to vote or receive state services has won handily.

Posted at 12:37 AM

CHECK OUT SLATE... [Jonah Goldberg]
They're covering the election on the Bizarro world.

Posted at 12:37 AM

NH FOR KERRY [KJL]
FNC

Posted at 12:36 AM

AHH... [Jonah Goldberg]

From a reader:


Jonah,

I have to hand it to you, brother: you were right as rain on the youth vote. As a youth (23), I feared many of my compatriots would be lulled from their X-Box's to the polls by the all-powerful P Diddlypop & CO. You, sir, proved me wrong.

SWEET FAILURE!!!


Posted at 12:35 AM

"IT IS FIXED" [KJL]
More from Democratic Underground (I'll Stop Now):
Canadian TV (CTV) said it will be an early landslide (their word) for Kerry. They had inside information.
Had I known that...!

Posted at 12:34 AM

I'M STAYING UP [Ramesh Ponnuru]
until Bush wins.

Posted at 12:32 AM

MEANWHILE ON CNBC... [Aaron P. Bailey]
"Blow Out," the most superficial, idiotic reality tv show about Hollywood hair salon owners who consume Botox and champagne by the caseload.

Posted at 12:30 AM

GUBBERNATORIAL UPDATE [John Hood]
Still have some gubernatorial races that are too close to call, but some surprises may be in store. With two-thirds of precincts reporting, Republican Matt Blunt is leading in the race in Missouri. That would be a GOP pick-up if he pulls it out. However, in New Hampshire the Republican incumbent Craig Benson is currently trailing his Democratic challenger and Montana looks like it might switch to the Ds with Democrat Brian Schweitzer. The race in the state of Washington, previously held by the Democrats, is currently tight.

Posted at 12:28 AM

DON'T DO THAT TO ME [KJL]
Formerly bummed GOP pollster is now freaked: "if we lose Ohio late (doubt it), but pull out Wisconsin and New Mexico (still losing NH), then we're at 269..."

Posted at 12:26 AM

246 EC TO W, ON FNC [KJL]
colorado called.

Posted at 12:25 AM

OUR NEW LESBIAN SHERIFF [Rod Dreher]
Here's a shocker from deep in the heart of Texas: the next sheriff of Dallas County will be a Latina lesbian named Lupe Valdez, who scored a close upset over her Republican opponent. My hunch is that some last minute dirty politicking by the Republican, Danny Chandler, tipped this race. Valdez is openly gay, but her sexuality had not been a part of this race until Chandler accused her in the last days of the campaign of being an advocate of the gay agenda. It is hard to figure what the "gay agenda" has to do with being the county's chief law enforcement officer, and it was a pretty transparent attempt to signal to Dallas voters, "Hey, my opponent's gay!" I know two Republican voters here who thought that was so low-down that they voted for Valdez just to spite Chandler.

Posted at 12:24 AM

FOX FINALLY CALLS FLA [Ramesh Ponnuru]

Posted at 12:21 AM

WATCH A BREAKDOWN IN PROGRESS [KJL]
here

Posted at 12:20 AM

OHIO [Jim Robbins]
According to Susan Estrich, Kerry campaign believs it will come down to Cuyahoga Co. (Cleveland). Gore won it with 63% in 2000. Kerry currently has 63% with 2/3 of the precincts counted. They also said the 130,000 vote gap would close to 30,000. Since then the Bush lead has expanded to 150,000 votes with 70% in.

Posted at 12:09 AM

MAX BURNS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
loses his GA House seat, which I did not expect.

Posted at 12:08 AM

PROP 71 SPIN [KJL]
From Wendy Wright at Concerned Women for America:
Californians pass Prop 71, spending $3 billion on embryonic stem cell research. So even if school children don’t have textbooks and highways crumble for lack of funding, Californians will still have to fund risky, unethical research for 10 years - even if, say in the third year, it proves unsuccessful.

And here’s an unexpected twist – this takes the wind out of the arguments for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. This stunning amount (yes, $3 billion, not million) dwarfs the federal spending on all stem cell research (adult and embryonic), which is about $300 million. So, Bush-bashers have lost an issue to attack him on.

Posted at 12:04 AM

COLORADO [KJL]
"president looks well ahead there." (brit)

Posted at 12:03 AM

FOX [KJL]
wont call florida yet

Posted at 12:03 AM

READERS WANT PA IN PLAY STILL [KJL]
see

Posted at 12:02 AM

DON'T TRY THAT FIRST POST THING, JONAH. OR SECOND...OR... [KJL]

Posted at 12:01 AM

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