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That scenario, which just last week seemed highly unlikely, now appears to be a real possibility after a strong late showing by GOP candidates in several tight races. But even if Republicans pick up a seat, their victory scenario is far more complicated than the "50-50, we win" formula. In fact, some key Republicans say that a 50-50 tie might have nearly the same result as an outright defeat for the party, leaving it bogged down in a rules fight with Democrats that could neutralize its control over the Senate.
The key to understanding how power works in the Senate is the organizing resolution that must be passed after each election. After the 2000 election, when the Senate was split 50-50 — with the winning vote to be provided by Cheney — the two sides entered into long and acrimonious power-sharing negotiations. They produced Senate Resolution 8, under which Republicans held the chairmanships of committees, but the membership, staff, and budget of each committee were divided equally between Republicans and Democrats. It was a difficult arrangement, to say the least, and many Republicans complained that then-Majority Leader Trent Lott had ceded too much authority to his Democratic opponents. But the committee chairmanships were critical for the GOP — the key, for example, in winning quick approval of the president's tax cut proposal. Now, however, if the Senate again splits 50-50, Republicans might not have even that power. In early 2001, during the power-sharing negotiations, Republicans had a key advantage. Under the Senate's rules, if a new Senate cannot come up with an organizing resolution, the resolution from the last Senate remains in effect. In 2001, that meant that if Democrats did not agree to a power-sharing arrangement, they would have to live under the pre-2001 arrangement, which was total Republican control. That was a powerful motivator for then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle to come up with an agreement with Lott. "If we didn't get an arrangement, the rules called for us to go back to the last organizing resolution, which was when we had control," says one Republican. "That gave us leverage with the Democrats." But now, if the Senate again splits 50-50, the situation will be just the opposite. Democrats will press for a power-sharing arrangement, and Republicans will know that if they do not agree, the Senate will remain under its current organizing resolution, which provides for complete Democratic control. The leverage Republicans had in early 2001 will belong to Democrats in early 2003. And Republicans know they would be dreaming not to expect Democrats to use that leverage as forcefully as possible. For example, if there is a 50-50 split, Republicans will likely move that the Senate go back to the structure created by Senate Resolution 8. We're 50-50, they will say, Cheney is still vice president, so why not go back to the old deal? But GOP insiders know that the Democratic answer will be a resounding no. "We've had big indications that we can't go back to Senate Resolution 8," says one Republican. "It's going to be tougher to get them to cut a deal. They're not going to want Republicans to be chairmen. They're going to want to have co-chairmen." Democrats know that if Republicans object, a standoff means the Senate will continue under the current organizing resolution, which put Daschle in the majority leader's office and gave Democrats control of all committees. Democrats can certainly live with that. Republicans can't. And just to make matters worse, there is a real possibility that a 50-50 tie would be a fleeting arrangement. If the Senate is tied, Republicans fear that Rhode Island GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee will make his long-rumored bolt from the party. Even though Chafee has disavowed that — he said last month on CNN that, "I'm a Republican, I'm staying a Republican" — some in the GOP simply don't believe him. "He has more or less indicated that at 50-50, he walks the aisle," says one Republican. "He's tried to moderate that, but everybody's a bit leery of what he does." If that happens, the 50-50 tie becomes a 51-49 Democratic majority. At that point, even a co-chairman deal would look pretty good to the GOP. The only solution for Republicans is to pick up two seats, giving them a 51-49 majority. (GOP insiders do not believe Chafee would defect if the GOP has a clear majority, although if he did, Republicans would be back in the 50-50 mess). But even a 51-49 majority would not be a cakewalk. If Republicans hold that advantage, the parties will still be involved in vicious infighting over committee staff and budgets, and Democrats will furiously resist Republican efforts to exert full control over the process. But if Daschle attempts to block an organizing resolution, the move could backfire on him. "Whatever party is in the minority and refuses to go along with a resolution will come under some pressure for not getting the nation's business done," says a Hill Republican. Still, some Republicans fear that Daschle might be able to outmaneuver the GOP and win more power than his minority status would merit. "It's a situation of who blinks first," says one Republican. "And we always blink first." |
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job seems simple enough. If Republicans can pick up just one seat in the
Senate, they'll have 50 votes, which, when combined with Vice President
Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote, will give them control of the Senate.
