Bill Jones is convinced he can become the next senator from California. “On national security, Barbara Boxer’s record is dismal,” he says. “She’s voted six times not to increase military pay and five times to increase congressional pay.”
It sounds like the theme of a political ad–and California voters just may hear it this fall, as Jones tries to knockout Boxer, one of the Senate’s most liberal Democrats.
The fact that Jones must get past Tuesday’s GOP primary before he has a clear shot at Boxer hasn’t stopped him from jabbing at her anyway: His frontrunner’s campaign is focused on the general election rather than the handful of intramural opponents seeking the Republican nomination for themselves. The latest Los Angeles Times poll gives Jones a commanding lead over his competition, with 44 percent of likely GOP primary voters supporting him. Former state assemblyman Howard Kaloogian is in a distant second place, with 12 percent, followed by former Los Altos Hills mayor Toni Casey at 10 percent and former U.S. treasurer Rosario Marin at 8 percent. Jones holds a slightly bigger lead among self-described conservatives, with 48 percent favoring him and only 14 percent preferring Kaloogian, who is trying to outflank Jones on the right.
Jones may be the favorite on Tuesday, but he’ll be a heavy underdog against Boxer. The Los Angeles Times also polled registered voters on a prospective Boxer-Jones bout: 53 percent said they were at least leaning toward Boxer, versus 37 percent for Jones.
Yet the former secretary of state is upbeat. His third-place finish in the 2002 GOP primary for governor was a disappointment, but he has a track record of winning in tough circumstances. As a member of the California state legislature, he came from a district where most voters weren’t Republicans. “I’ve proven that I can attract independents and conservative Democrats,” he says. Six years ago, he was one of just two Republicans to win statewide office–at a time when the California GOP was said to be collapsing.
The biggest problem for Jones between now and Tuesday–and perhaps beyond–may be his vote in the early 1990s supporting Gov. Pete Wilson’s tax increase. “It wouldn’t have been my package if I had been governor at the time,” says Jones. “But we didn’t have very many choices. We cut as much of the budget as we could–the votes for deeper cuts simply weren’t there.” He also notes that as the Republican leader in the state assembly, he felt an obligation to support a Republican governor faced with a set of bad options. Several weeks ago, Jones signed Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge.
On free trade, Jones is cautious. “I supported NAFTA, but we have to follow through on side agreements involving labor and the environment,” he says. “We haven’t done this.” He won’t commit himself to CAFTA–the Central American Free Trade Agreement, recently concluded by the Bush administration’s negotiators. “I’ll have to take a look at it,” he says. “I’m certainly not averse to trade agreements.” By contrast, Kaloogian is a strong critic of NAFTA.
Immigration is a major issue in many GOP primaries this spring, as conservative candidates rush to denounce the recent Bush guest-worker proposal. Jones isn’t necessarily an opponent, though he’s hardly enthusiastic. His statements seem carefully calibrated to give him flexibility later on. “I don’t support an amnesty,” he says, echoing Bush’s own words. He doesn’t necessarily oppose a Bush-style reform, either. “Any solution to the problem of illegal immigration must be a California-centric solution,” he says. The federal government, he insists, should reimburse California for the costs of illegal immigration.
Finally, Jones might become a reluctant supporter of a gay-marriage amendment to the Constitution. “I’m opposed to gay marriage,” he says. “They’re flouting the law in San Francisco right now. If the Supreme Court does not move on this quickly, then I’ll certainly entertain the idea of a constitutional amendment.”
A more important question for him, however, is whether California voters will entertain the idea of Senator Jones. If all goes according to his plan on Tuesday, he’ll have about eight months to make his case–and beat Boxer in a close decision.