The German sociologist Claus Offe sees democratic transformation unfolding over three hours–the hour of the lawyer, the hour of the economist, and the hour of the citizen. Though each hour ranges in length from six months to 60 years, the metaphor is helpful to understand what comes next in Iraq.
The first clock Offe described was the “hour of the lawyer” (approximately six months long). In this first stage of democratic development, laws are rewritten, a constitution is established, and a rule-of-law framework is created. The goal is to institutionalize democracy as a process. Fully democratic and representative political systems are formed, basic human liberties are enshrined in law, and an independent judiciary is developed.
Iraq’s clock started Sunday. Once seated in mid-February, the new Transitional National Assembly will select a cabinet and will craft a new constitution by October. After a constitution is ratified, about two months later another national election will be held electing Iraq’s first democratic government. Though facilitated by the United States and the international community, this constitution will reflect Iraqi needs, Iraqi culture, and Iraqi values. As I argued last week, the United States is not imposing democracy on Iraq. Rather, the United States is democracy’s midwife, helping Iraqis develop a free and just society.
The second phase of democratic transformation is conducted during the “hour of the economist.” During this period (approximately six years), the framework for a market economy is laid. To do this, the government privatizes state-owned enterprises, simplifies regulatory controls, and establishes property rights. Fundamentally, market-entry barriers are removed and an atmosphere conducive for entrepreneurs is created.
In the case of Iraq, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) started this process in 2003. Using electricity production as a central factor in creating a flourishing economy, the latest Brookings Iraq Index lists electricity at about 60 percent of CPA’s initial goal. The lack of electricity certainly complicates life for ordinary Iraqis and prevents an economy from normalizing. However, using telephone access as an indicator for economic development, the results are very promising. There are nearly 2.5 million telephone subscribers in Iraq today, which exceeds the CPA goal by more than double and nearly triples pre-war levels. Telephones won’t keep Iraqis warm at night or light the streets, but phones do facilitate commerce and political activism.
The final phase of democratic transformation is the “hour of the citizen.” After this phase is completed (approximately three generations or 60 years), democracy is securely in the hands of the people. The goal is to institutionalize democracy as a way of life. Efforts to overturn democratic rule through a military coup or political dictatorship are met by a robust civil society, competing government institutions, and citizens who fight for their civil liberties. While the 60-year timeframe may be discouraging, we must remember the length is arbitrary. It only took about five years for Polish democracy to consolidate and 15 before Poland became a fully integrated member of NATO and the European Union.
It is clear Iraqis will not be dissuaded from exercising their God-given democratic rights or securing their future from tyranny. The more than 60 percent of Iraqis who voted understand that their future is in their hands and they proudly displayed their blue finger as a sign that they had voted.
As democracies are known to hold political sovereignty above all else (think U.S.-Philippines relations in the early 1990s), we should expect Iraq’s new government to make uncomfortable demands on the United States. These demands may require the U.S. to reduce its military presence, force the United States to compromise on how it views a future Iraq, or alter how the United States does business in Iraq.
We should not view new demands as offensive, but rather should welcome them as Iraqis attempt to craft their own future and establish their own legitimacy. We must remember that Sunday’s election illustrated that Iraqis and Americans agree on one fundamental goal: that Iraqis should enjoy liberty, prosperity, and stability. It is in this task that Americans’ and Iraqis’ futures are intertwined. It is in this task that America will help Iraqis succeed.
–Derek Reveron is the editor of America’s Viceroys: the Military and U.S. Foreign Policy, associate professor of national-security affairs at the Naval War College, and a former intelligence analyst for the FBI.