Politics & Policy

2005 Prediction Results

The results.

Every year at the end of December some NRO folks make predictions about the coming year. Reader Bill Raftery has kindly taken the time to assess our predictions for 2005 (as he did last year re: our 2004 predictions) (thanks so much, bud. At least I come out better than Goldberg!). Here’s what he found: As I did in previous years, I am putting forth the results of NRO’s 2005 predicitions!

Because I am sure people will be putting together their 2006 list soon, here’s the final results (baring some exceptional set of circumstances in the next two weeks):

A note: accuracy I am measuring it two ways.

Most accurate (# of predictions/# of accurate predictions): Stuttaford

Most accurate (# of accurate predictions): May

Stuttaford’s “win” is a bit misleading. With only three predictions, he really didn’t take that many chances. So I included sheer number of correct predictions (May)to give a better view and to encourage predictions and risks. There’s a summary followed by my analysis.

Stuttaford

Predictions

3

Points

2.5

Roman”>Score

83.33%

Miller

Predictions

5

Points

4.0833333

Score

81.67%

May

Predictions

12

Points

8.5

Score

70.83%

Derbyshire

Predictions

14

Roman”> 

Points

7.8333333

Score

55.95%

Roman”>Lopez

Predictions

13

Points

6.8333333

Roman”>Score

52.56%

Goldberg

Predictions

18

Points

8

Score

44.44%

O’Beirne

Predictions

6

Points

0.92

Score

15.33%

VDH

Predictions

5

Points

0.5

Score

10.00%

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Derbyshire

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Author

Prediction

Score

Rationale

Derbyshire

Iran will test a Bomb.

No, but getting close

Derbyshire

Mel Gibson will get an Oscar. (The Left, of which Hollywood is a wholly owned subsidiary, is desperate to get on speaking terms with those weird — what do they call themselves? — “Christians.”)

0.333333333

Gibson didn’t, but The Passion did get three minor technical awards, so .1 each.

Derbyshire

Some moderate will take over leadership of the Palestinian Arabs… and be assassinated by Hamas.

To quote Monty Python, “I’m not dead yet”.

Roman”>Derbyshire

In the U.S. government, the first signs of the Second Term Crack-Up will appear, possibly in the form of a sex or money scandal. See also next item.

0.5

Second term Crack-Up has appeared in the form of the Plame fiasco and Liby’s indictment. But it is only a minor crackup, so .5 only.

Derbyshire

The Iraqis will fail to take charge of their own affairs. The U.S. will muddle on, offering increasingly implausible excuses for our continuing presence there. The U.S. public will get increasingly fed up with the whole business. The first congressional resolution to cut off funding for Iraq will be proposed, but quickly defeated.

1

Really, there are four predictions here, of which the first three have arguably occurred but not yet the fourth.

Derbyshire

A million or so illegal immigrants will come across our borders or overstay their visas. Among them will be some dozens or hundreds of Middle Eastern terrorists. George W. Bush will refer to all million-odd as “good-hearted people.”

0.5

This is a three in one. The first is almost certainly correct, the second speculative and the third I cannot find Bush saying this year (He said it Dec. 2004) but he’s said things close enough to earn 1/2 of 1/3

Derbyshire

Britain’s fox-hunting ban will generate major civil disobedience.

1

Derbyshire

At least one major European nation will legalize same-sex marriage.

1

Spain in June

Something seriously unpleasant, and inimical to U.S. interests, will happen in one or more of the following places: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, China, Russia, South America.

1

Something unpleasant and inimical to U.S. interests ALWAYS happens in one of those places. Cheap Point.

Derbyshire

Millions of people in Africa will die from violence and disease, and nobody will care much.

Live 8 proves people do care…as long as there are celebs involved

Derbyshire

The performance of the U.S. intelligence services will decline further following current reorganization. It will become apparent to the general U.S. public that we have no real clue what is happening in any part of the world critical to U.S. interests.

0.5