Politics & Policy

The Caliphate Intelligence Estimate

Six years later.

“The U.S. Threat to the Jihadist Homeland”

Caliphate Intelligence Estimate

Compiled by Abdullah Abu Abdullah, Director of Caliphate Intelligence

Classification: Top Secret, Code Word [redacted], Eyes Only

Prepared for Osama bin Laden, Amir al-Mu’minin, and the Shura Council of the Caliphate

This CIE provides a broad, strategic, and coordinated framework for understanding the Western threat to the Caliphate over the next three years. It provides the jihadist community’s baseline judgments in order to help the Commander of the Faithful and his advisers develop and prioritize the Caliphate’s response.

Key Judgments

We judge the Caliphate will face a persistent and evolving Crusader threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Western military and intelligence services, especially the United States, driven by their undiminished intent to eliminate the Caliphate and a continued effort by these countries to adapt and improve their capabilities.

We assess that greatly increased global jihadist efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of the United States to attack the Caliphate again and have led Western powers to perceive the Caliphate as a harder target to strike than immediately after Holy Tuesday (a.k.a. 9/11). These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the Caliphate.

‐ We believe that international cooperation against the Caliphate will almost certainly wane as the unbelievers progressively lose their will to defend their corrupt civilization.

The United States is and will remain the most serious threat to the Caliphate, as its criminal leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in moderate Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the U.S. has protected or regenerated key elements of its Caliphate attack capability, including: a safe haven in Afghanistan, new Pentagon leadership, and a variety of advanced technical means to pursue covert operations. Although we have discovered and beheaded only a handful of individuals in the Caliphate with ties to the West since Holy Tuesday, we judge that the U.S. will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.

‐ As a result, we judge that the Caliphate currently is in a heightened threat environment.

We assess that political divisions and endemic factionalization inside the United States, coupled with diminished national resolve, will almost certainly lead to reduced capabilities of the illegitimate Bush and his stooges to pursue their global crusade against the Caliphate in the coming year. As well, future U.S. leaders are unlikely to be able to forge the necessary consensus to maintain momentum in their doomed struggle.

‐ Given these favorable trends in U.S. politics, the threat environment will likely diminish over time.

We assess that globalization trends and recent technological advances will continue to enable even small numbers of apostates and secularists to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify their pursuit of freedom, and mobilize resources to lead peaceful lives — all without requiring a centralized organization, training camp, or leader. The spread of Western-style entertainment, dress, and mannerisms among young people, and the growing number of moderate, peaceful communities in Muslim countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the region’s Muslim population is decreasing, including in the Land of the Two Holy Places.

‐ The creeping spread of free thought and exposure to Western quality of life is a major impediment to the jihad. Steps to prevent vice and promote virtue must be redoubled in any areas of Caliphate influence.

What Al Qaeda Is Doing To Protect The Caliphate From The Persistent, Evolving Threat From America

We are confronting the threat from the United States and degrading their capabilities. On Holy Tuesday, the Amir al-Mu’minin resolved that we would go on the offense against our enemies. We have built new institutions to better coordinate our operations and intelligence collection, developed new tools to conceal jihadists and our finances, and marshaled all Caliphate resources to attack the unbeliever enemies at war with us.

‐ In Iraq, we continue to foment civil war to keep the United States pinned down and bleeding, to sap its national will, and to prevent the creation of a secular government at variance with Holy Shariah. As well we are giving training, indoctrination and practical experience in jihad to a new generation of international jihadist warriors, who will eventually return to their home countries as the core cadre of the next wave of the Salafist revolution.

‐ In Pakistan, we continue to defend against the traitorous dog Musharraf and his lackey government in their efforts to capture key al Qaeda operatives and pressure al Qaeda and the Taliban in the liberated zone. The Pakistanis understand the power that al Qaeda and associated jihadists wield in the country, and consequently have been wholly ineffective in undertaking operations frantically demanded by the Unbelievers.

‐ In the Persian Gulf, we continue to strengthen efforts to create terrorist cells, augment terrorist financing, and promote the justifiable murder of apostates.

‐ In Europe, we continue to build strong relationships to increase information sharing and jihadi cooperation while also building awareness of the nature of the jihad and the challenges posed to Europe as infidels exploit existing infrastructures to support their operations.

‐ We are looking at additional ways of expanding al Qaeda’s network, including even more aggressively promoting al Qaeda’s jihadist message and attempts to exploit the grievances and suffering of local groups for our own benefit. We continue to dominate the global media whenever we issue a statement about anything. Seriously, we could be reading the phone book and it would be an above-the-fold headline.

Since Holy Tuesday, the Caliphate Is Safer — But We Are Not Yet Safe

Our Enemies Have Not Succeeded In Martyring Our Top Leadership, by God’s Will. But they have not been idle. Since Holy Tuesday the United States and those inspired by its corrupt ideology have carried out genocidal assaults in more than two dozen Muslim nations. They have plotted against the Caliphate but have thus far not succeeded in attacking us — in part because we have taken bold action at home and abroad to keep our people safe.

We have reconstituted many of our capabilities and structures for waging jihad. Yet paradoxically, as we become more organized, we also become more vulnerable. Training camps may be infiltrated. Financial networks may be penetrated. Communiqués may be intercepted and traced to their point of origin. Complex attack plans may be and in fact have been broken up; those involved in them have revealed to the Crusaders the details of our new organization as they understood it. Thus the larger, more capable, and more extensive our organization becomes, the more opportunities the enemy will have to destroy us, if God so commands.

We Remain On The Offense Against Crusaders Abroad, While We Defend Against Attacks On The Caliphate, Muslims Abroad, And Our Friends And Allies.

Under the leadership of Sheik Osama bin Laden, Prince of the Muslim People, al Qaeda remains in the vanguard of the holy jihad and the defense of the Caliphate. Good news will soon arrive. The planned [redacted] to take place next [redacted] in [redacted] will be our most dramatic statement yet. The [redacted] we obtained from [redacted] will cause massive destruction and show our strength and commitment to the [redacted] God willing.

Have I not conveyed? O God, be my witness.

Have I not conveyed? O God, be my witness.

Have I not conveyed? O God, be my witness.

James S. Robbins is the Director of the Intelligence Community Center for Academic Excellence at Trinity Washington University and author of Last in Their Class: Custer, Picket and the Goats of West Point. Robbins is also an NRO contributor.


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