North Carolina was not supposed to be part of the discussion.
Once the Democratic primary was over, the state that had not voted for a Democratic president since 1976 — and had not been competitive since 1992 — was supposed to go quietly into its predictable “red” column and not be heard from again. It hasn’t worked out that way. Here we are in October with the candidates spending precious time in the state. And, according to which polls you see, either the Senator Barack Obama has a two-point lead or the race is at a 49-49 deadlock.
To those on the outside, North Carolina is seen as bedrock of southern conservatism, a state that gave rise to the career of Sen. Jesse Helms and gave Ronald Reagan a crucial 1976 primary victory. It is not a state, the conventional wisdom held, that could well cast its electoral votes for a Democrat and the first black nominee.
The reality within the state, however, is different. For starters, the state has long held a progressive streak, which propelled the careers of Democrats Terry Sanford and Frank Porter Graham and explains the tendency of voters to vote for Helms and John Edwards. The state also has a tendency to support Democrats for state offices, even while voting Republican for president or Senate. It’s a state that has become more “purple” over the years, as northerners flee high property taxes in New Jersey and New York and retire or relocate in growing areas throughout the state. North Carolina also has a large African-American population, estimated last year by the U.S. Census to be just over one quarter of the population.
In other words, Obama may have always had a shot here. Add to the demographic mix the current economic climate and especially the collapse of Charlotte-based Wachovia, who also has significant operations in Winston-Salem, and you have a state decidedly in play.
For Sen. John McCain to win what has become a battleground state, he will have to look back to May and take a few pages from the campaign playbook of Sen. Hillary Clinton. Clinton made a concerted effort to target conservative Democrats uncomfortable with Obama’s liberal record. She essentially ran a Republican campaign in a Democratic primary; appearing on programs such as The O’Reilly Factor and courting local press in conservative vote rich eastern North Carolina, including small but influential conservative newspapers such as the Dunn Daily Record.
Although Clinton did not win North Carolina, her campaign can serve as a road map for McCain to find the conservative Democrats and swing voters he needs to carry the state.
The Clinton campaign made it clear — they were targeting the East. It was a smart strategy — even for Democrats. Heck, maybe especially for Democrats, as North Carolina races are often won or lost in the East. In campaign after campaign, a dominant narrative among political reporters and observers has been the battle for the East.
Eastern North Carolina, as the Clinton campaign knew well, is a conservative area. It’s still the home of voters known as “Jessecrats,” conservative Democrats who generally vote Republican.
In addition, eastern North Carolina is flush with military and veteran voters predisposed to support McCain. In a state with the second highest population of military personnel in the nation, the overwhelming majority of personnel are found near military installations in eastern North Carolina such a Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Seymour Johnson AFB and Cherry Point Air Station. These are McCain voters.
The McCain campaign was smart to send Governor Sarah Palin to Greenville, the largest city — and largest media market — in northeastern North Carolina. Swing voters in the region have shown a tendency to support Republican candidates. In 2004, the Northeast gave Senator Richard Burr his second highest margin of swing voters in the state — second only to his home region of the Triad.
McCain needs the South to be a Solid South. Without North Carolina, it is nearly impossible to see any scenario for a McCain victory. The recent poll numbers — and that Obama outspent McCain by more than $1M in the state just last week — are cause for concern. But even at this late date, we are still a long way out..
The North Carolina presidential race will be won in the east. Campaign after campaign has been fought there.
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton demonstrated that there were a lot of North Carolina Democrats uneasy with Barack Obama. Her campaign essentially signaled who those voters were and where they lived.
Now it’s up to McCain to get them.
– Doug Heye is a veteran of political campaigns, Capitol Hill and the Bush administration. Heye has been involved in North Carolina politics since 1990. He served as communications director for Sen. Richard Burr (R., N.C.) both in the United States Senate and during his successful 2004 campaign.