A new Rasmussen poll has Sharron Angle tied with Harry Reid:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Democratic Senator Harry Reid and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle tied with 47% of the vote each. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Two weeks ago, Reid held a two-point advantage over Angle.
The Rasmussen story points out that Reid’s share of the vote has increased from 39 percent following Angle’s primary victory to 41 percent in late June to 47 percent today. However:
When leaners are included in the new totals, Angle attracts 50% of the vote, while Reid picks up 48%. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Nevada to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
Rasmussen has moved this race from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, and notes that many in the electorate say they are firmly decided in their support:
Voters in Nevada already have staked out firm positions on the candidates. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Reid’s supporters say that they are certain to vote for him and won’t change their mind. Eight-five percent (85%) of Angle’s supporters say the same.
Read the rest of the poll for other Nevada statistics that will have bearing on the election.