Jim Geraghty has this in the Campaign Spot, but it bears mention here, too:
Republican John Kasich now holds an eight-point lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland in the race for governor of Ohio, shifting the state from a Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Kasich earns 48% of the vote, while Strickland picks up 40% support in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Two weeks ago, Kasich was barely ahead 45% to 42%, but the race has been close for months. Since December, the Republican’s support has ranged narrowly from 45% to 49%, while the Democrat in those same surveys has earned 38% to 45% of the vote.
When leaners are included in the new totals, Kasich’s lead grows to 10 points. With the leaners, 52% favor Kasich, and 42% are for Strickland.
In other words, if the leaners stop leaning, Strickland is under water. Somehow I don’t see Obama’s visit helping.