A new Mason-Dixon poll nearly echos what Rasmussen said last week about Florida’s U.S. Senate race. If Kendrick Meek wins the Democratic primary, Marco Rubio leads the general election, beating Charlie Crist by five points. If Jeff Greene wins the Democratic primary, Crist beats Rubio in the general election by one.
Unlike Rasmussen, though, the new M-D poll shows that the first scenario is more likely. As reported by the Orlando Sentinel:
The poll found that Meek, who launched his first television advertisements last month, led Greene among Democratic voters 40 percent to 26 percent, a 14-point margin that establishes Meek as the front-runner in the Aug. 24 Democratic primary.
That’s good news for Rubio supporters, since Meek will siphon Democratic voters away from Crist much more effectively than Greene, according to National Journal.
The difference in matchups for Crist is the support of Dems. If Greene is the nominee, Crist gets 61% of the Dem vote. With Meek in the general, 45% of Dems backed Crist, while Meek draws 36%.
“With Crist currently at 33% and questions about his ability to hold Democratic and African-American support if Meek wins the primary, it will be tough for Crist to thread that needle,” Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker told the Tampa Tribune, which reported the results this evening on their website.