Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, leads Republican Dan Maes and American Constitution Party’s Tom Tancredo 47-21-29 in a new poll from CNN/Time, conducted September 17-21.
The race for U.S. Senate, however, remains close. Ken Buck leads Sen. Michael Bennet 49 to 44 percent, but holds a large advantage among the state’s unaffiliated voters:
The poll indicates Buck leads Bennett by 14 points among independent voters, while Bennet holds a five point advantage among voters 50 and older, who tend to make up a larger percentage of the electorate in midterm elections than they do during presidential election years.
The survey also suggests a geographic divide and a gender gap.
“Bennet’s problem is that his support disappears the further you get from Denver,” Holland says. “Bennet has a huge lead in Denver and Boulder, but the race is close in the Denver suburbs. Move further along the Front Range – the strip of fast-growing communities that strech out along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains – and Buck’s lead widens to 18 points. Buck also has a 20-point lead in the rest of the state.”
While Buck leads with likely voters, among the larger pool of all registered voters, Bennett [sic] holds a 47 to 44 percent advantage, with nine percent unsure or backing other candidates.
Though the results differ between “likely” and “all registered” voters, according to the CNN recap, midterms tend favor the “likely” voters, and in 2010 the enthusiasm gap clearly favors Republicans.
The actual results differ with the article’s claim that Bennet holds a lead among older voters (50+). In fact, the raw results show Buck with a lead, 49 to 44 percent in the category. In fact, the result point to Buck advantages in just about every age category, save the “50-64″ range, where Bennet has a narrow one point lead.
There is a pronounced gender gap, with Buck leading with men, 56 to 36, while Bennet is favored by women 52 to 41. No doubt this plays into the Democrats’ plan to use reproductive rights as a “wedge” issue with women.
Bennet takes 94 percent of his party’s support, while Buck holds 91 percent of Republicans. Independents are falling behind Buck, 50 to 36. This key demographic is sought by both parties, and currently makes up the largest voting bloc of registered voters in the state of Colorado.
Bennet has a commanding lead in the Denver/Boulder segment, 65 to 28, but Buck’s lead in the sought-after suburbs, 50 to 44, could prove insurmountable, as Buck holds generous leads along the Front Range corridor (54 to 36) and the rest of the state (55 to 35).