The internal poll shows the first-term Democrat Rep. Betsy Markey tied with Republican challenger Cory Gardner at 38 percent each. Two third-party candidates (7 percent total) were included, and 17 percent of voters were undecided:
The poll is a stark contrast to one released last week by a Republican-affiliated group, which showed Gardner with an 11-point lead.
The reality is probably somewhere in between, said Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University.
“It seems to me likely that the political reality of this race lays somewhere between these two extremes; the race is likely not currently a tie, nor is it a blowout for Gardner,” he said. “It is likely a competitive race, just as we suspected.”
Observers fault Markey’s campaign for withholding the poll’s methodology and other critical data:
“Sharing that kind of information is a fundamentally standard practice in any political polling that is shared with the public,” Saunders said. [emphasis added]
A fundraiser for Markey scheduled with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has been canceled, most likely due to speculation about Emanuel’s own political aspirations in the Chicago mayoral race.