Data from the census shows Nevada should pick up a House seat in the next reapportionment.

The name of the NV-3 game is Avoid Past Pitfalls, according to this story. Not sure that is possible in light of political ads from both sides pointing to their opponent’s voting records. Savvy Nevada Democratic consultant, Billy Vassiliadis, hits on the best way to win, saying to the Las Vegas Sun, “This is a good year not to have a record.” The piece also talks about the challenge for both candidates in walking the line between appearing independent and/or moderate and pleasing their liberal (Titus) or conservative (Heck) base. Heck often points out that Titus has voted with Pelosi 97 percent of the time; Titus says Heck panders to the state’s Tea Partiers who have moved him to the right. 

A recent AP piece on Democrats working hard to distance themselves from their own party points out that Titus is doing the same by declaring herself an “independent voice” on her campaign signs.

Hotline says few voters are going to make up their minds about Joe Heck in NV-3, or other House races, based on the new GOP plan or because of Boehner’s alleged love for lobbyists. Says their blog this morning, “If anything, Democrats want to keep the races as local as possible, rather than risking nationalizing an already ugly atmosphere.” We’ve seen evidence of this in Titus’ choice to go after Heck on his past votes as a state legislator rather than on D.C. issues. 

A favorite topic of the Nevada political class this season has been poll samples vs. projected turnout. Survey results are routinely called into question based on party breakdown in the crosstabs. Voter registration rolls in the state show Democrats up five percent over the Republicans, but many think the enthusiasm gap will give the GOP the edge. However, the Nevada Democratic Party–aka Harry Reid’s satellite office–is a lean, mean machine in their get-out-the-vote efforts. Your humble BATTLE ‘10 correspondent thinks the Dems may turn out in higher numbers than many pundits believe, which could make things very interesting indeed on election night.

Harry Reid last week said the Wong family/Arcata earmark accusations were “a stretch.” The RJ story lists the Wong family’s political donations to both D and R power brokers over the years. So typical of Silver State politics.