Politics & Policy

Breaking New Voter Results–GOP Outpaces Dems by 25,000 Votes

From Rich Coolidge at the Colorado Secretary of State’s office an update from last week–numbers through Monday, October 25:

Democrats: 159882 (36.0%)

Republicans: 184982 (41.7%)

UAF: 95926 (21.6%)

Total: 443611

All voter registration/status as of 10/01/10:

Dem “active”–19.99% (159882/799981)

Dem registered–14.90% (159882/1073165)

Repub “active”–21.45% (184982/862575)

Repub registered–17.14% (184982/1079411)

UAF “active”–12.66% (95926/757935)

UAF registered–8.68% (95926/1105522)

Republicans are outpacing Democrats by 25,000 votes and nearly doubling the number of unaffiliateds. Republicans have a partisan lead over Democrats in key battleground counties like Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer counties.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog sees early returns consistent with enthusiasm gap noted in the polls–and Colorado is in +R territory by at least 4 points.

More from Silver:

This year, on average, the early vote has favored Democrats in these states by an average of 2 points. But in 2008, it favored them by an average of about 17 points — making for a 15-point swing against them.

If there were a 15-point swing toward Republicans in the partisan composition of the electorate, coupled with poor performance for most Democratic candidates among independent voters, that basically looks a lot like the Gallup “lower turnout” model, which could imply Democratic losses in the House in excess of 70 or even 80 seats — and which certainly implies the presence of a very large enthusiasm gap.

Gen_Turnout_10_25_2010[1]

Most Popular

The Imaginary Trump

Like Andrew Jackson, Donald Trump is man who represents the age in which he lived. Whatever you may think of the age. Jackson embodied a generation of men who had risen and made their mark in a young country. He represented their desire for greater representation, even if it had costs for slaves and Indians. He ... Read More

The Imaginary Trump

Like Andrew Jackson, Donald Trump is man who represents the age in which he lived. Whatever you may think of the age. Jackson embodied a generation of men who had risen and made their mark in a young country. He represented their desire for greater representation, even if it had costs for slaves and Indians. He ... Read More
Film & TV

Bowing Down to Obama

‘How can we miss you when you won’t go away?” political podcaster Yvette Carnell joked two years ago when Barack Obama began his comeback tour by making sideline pronouncements about the state of the nation after his brief retirement. Now the comeback is official, with two new Kool-Aid-drinker Obama ... Read More
Film & TV

Bowing Down to Obama

‘How can we miss you when you won’t go away?” political podcaster Yvette Carnell joked two years ago when Barack Obama began his comeback tour by making sideline pronouncements about the state of the nation after his brief retirement. Now the comeback is official, with two new Kool-Aid-drinker Obama ... Read More
Economy & Business

Shopping Superstitions

It’s the boss-bossiest time of the year, when Americans getting ready to open up their wallets to buy Christmas presents are lectured by illiterate halfwits about where and how to spend their money. The usual demands: Buy local, or buy from small businesses. This is pure nonsense, and you should feel free to ... Read More
Economy & Business

Shopping Superstitions

It’s the boss-bossiest time of the year, when Americans getting ready to open up their wallets to buy Christmas presents are lectured by illiterate halfwits about where and how to spend their money. The usual demands: Buy local, or buy from small businesses. This is pure nonsense, and you should feel free to ... Read More
History

The 1620 Project

On November 11, 1620, the Mayflower arrived on the eastern coast of North America. She had weathered the slings and arrows of maritime misfortune for almost ten weeks at that point, but the passengers thought the discomfort of crossing a small price to pay for passage to the Promised Land. After all, these were ... Read More
History

The 1620 Project

On November 11, 1620, the Mayflower arrived on the eastern coast of North America. She had weathered the slings and arrows of maritime misfortune for almost ten weeks at that point, but the passengers thought the discomfort of crossing a small price to pay for passage to the Promised Land. After all, these were ... Read More