Capitol Report’s Tom Dudchik has released a new poll by Merriman River Group showing Republican candidate Sam Caligiuri beating Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy, 49.7 — 44.3 percent:
The poll, commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the MerrimanRiver Group, surveyed 481 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of+/- 4.4 percentage points. 6.0 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of who they willsupport in the race.
“Chris Murphy appears to be facing an uphill fight to keep his seat,” says thepoll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “He is behind opponent Sam Caligiuri justoutside the margin of error, with Caligiuri pushing the 50 percent threshold in our survey.While the race is obviously competitive, it is often difficult for an incumbent to comeback after falling behind a challenger in the last month.
“The fifth district is shaping up to be the most Republican leaning district inConnecticut this year. It is the strongest district for both Tom Foley and Linda McMahonand is also the district least likely to have a positive opinion of President Obama, by a 43-53 margin. Murphy certainly knows how to win this district, but the national mood andthe top of the ticket may be too much to overcome.”