Politics & Policy

CO-GOV PPP Results: Hickenlooper by 3, Tancredo Continues to Surge, and Maes ‘Most Unpopular Candidate’ in Country

Public Policy Polling is flabbergasted, but offers results that show Tom Tancredo within the margin of error with former frontrunner John Hickenlooper stagnating and Dan Maes continuing to see support plummet into low single digits:

Tom Tancredo continues to surge as Dan Maes’ support completely collapses in the Colorado Governor’s race and John Hickenlooper now leads the race by only a 47-44 margin with Maes getting 5%.

Hickenlooper’s been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP’s polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. Given the trajectory of the race it is not inconceivable that Tancredo could pick up a good chunk of even the small amount of support Maes has remaining and 38% of the undecideds are Republicans to only 23% who are Democrats. Those two data points suggest that Tancredo still has more room to grow. […]

Maes is in a class of his own as the most unpopular candidate running for office anywhere in the country this year. A remarkable 75% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 8% who see him in a positive light. He’s pretty universally reviled by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

Hickenlooper’s getting 87% of Democrats to 10% for Tancredo and none for Maes. Tancredo has the 73-14 advantage with Republicans with 9% still going to Maes. His path to victory is dependent on that 9% continuing to decline. Tancredo also now has a 46-44 advantage with independents.

Hickenlooper remains the slight favorite but this race looks more and more like it could produce one of the most shocking outcomes in the country on election night.

PPP’s conclusion–Tancredo can pull off the upset of the cycle if the remaining sliver of Maes voters that have not already voted switch to the American Constitution Party candidate. From the looks of recent polling, Republicans will lose major party status by falling under 10 percent on November 2.

Updated voter election returns will be available from the Colorado Secretary of State later today.

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