Politics & Policy

Colorado Early Voter Turnout and Intensity

From today’s updated voter returns, a look at partisan voter turnout showing Republicans with a 5.7 percent partisan lead over Democrats, or 52,628 votes:

The GOP lead among “active” voters sits at 3.1 percent, and among registered voters is at 4.7 percent.

Democrats: 326964 (35.4%) vs. 10/27/10–239950 (35.6%)

Republicans: 379592 (41.1%) vs. 10/27/10–280283 (41.1%)

UAF: 212344 (23.0%) vs. 10/27/10–150532 (22.3%)

Total: 924466 (up from 674864 on 10/27/10)

All voter registration/status as of 10/01/10:

Dem “active”–40.87% (326964/799981)

Dem registered–30.47% (326964/1073165)

Repub “active”–44.01% (379592/862575)

Repub registered–35.17% (379592/1079411)

UAF “active”–28.02% (212344/757935)

UAF registered–19.21% (212344/1105522)

Total vote percentage of “active”–37.92% (924466/2437772)

Total vote percentage of registered–28.16% (924466/3282855)

Using the county-by-county returns, here is a look at absolute vote leads in partisan terms–red indicates a Republican lead, while blue represents a Democratic lead:

Here is the same map with a “heat” intensity applied. Solid red or blue indicates a partisan advantage greater than 25 percent, middle hues indicate a lead of 10 to 25 percent, and the lightest pink or blue indicates a vote lead of less than 10 percent:

Battleground county analysis:

Adams: +4425 DEM

Arapahoe: +5978 GOP

Boulder: +15328 DEM

Denver: +34162 DEM

Douglas: +20386 GOP

El Paso: +28976 GOP

Jefferson: +6979 GOP

Larimer: +6440 GOP

Mesa: +8707 GOP

Pueblo: +5565 DEM

Weld: +8569 GOP

In the battleground counties listed above and shown below, the GOP holds a 26,555 partisan vote advantage.

Gen Turnout 10 29 2010


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