Politics & Policy

Cook: 12 House Dems Now ‘Lean GOP’

Today the folks at Cook Political Report downgraded the status of 12 incumbent House Democrats from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican,” indicative of the continuing trevails of Democrats nation-

There are currently nine open seat currently held by Democrats that are listed as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.”

In contrast, there is only one incumbent Republican — Rep. Joeseph Cao (R., La.) — and one GOP-held open seat — Rep. Mike Castle’s in Delaware — currently rated “Lean” or “Likely Democratic.”

The list of recently-downgraded Democrats includes:

Arizona — Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick

Colorado — Rep. Betsy Markey

Florida — Reps. Alan “Taliban Dan” Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas

Illinois — Rep. Deborah Halvorson

Ohio — Reps. Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kilroy,

Pennsylvania — Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper

Texas — Rep. Chet Edwards

Virginia — Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye

Wisconsin — Rep. Steve Kagen

All were first elected in the Obama wave of ‘08, except Edwards (10 terms) and Kagen (2 terms). Quite obviously, this doesn’t bode well for any on that list:

“Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status,” wrote Cook’s House Editor David Wasserman.

 

“It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”

Andrew StilesAndrew Stiles is a political reporter for National Review Online. He previously worked at the Washington Free Beacon, and was an intern at The Hill newspaper. Stiles is a 2009 ...

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