Today the folks at Cook Political Report downgraded the status of 12 incumbent House Democrats from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican,” indicative of the continuing trevails of Democrats nation-
There are currently nine open seat currently held by Democrats that are listed as “Lean” or “Likely Republican.”
In contrast, there is only one incumbent Republican — Rep. Joeseph Cao (R., La.) — and one GOP-held open seat — Rep. Mike Castle’s in Delaware — currently rated “Lean” or “Likely Democratic.”
The list of recently-downgraded Democrats includes:
Arizona — Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick
Colorado — Rep. Betsy Markey
Florida — Reps. Alan “Taliban Dan” Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas
Illinois — Rep. Deborah Halvorson
Ohio — Reps. Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kilroy,
Pennsylvania — Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper
Texas — Rep. Chet Edwards
Virginia — Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye
Wisconsin — Rep. Steve Kagen
All were first elected in the Obama wave of ‘08, except Edwards (10 terms) and Kagen (2 terms). Quite obviously, this doesn’t bode well for any on that list:
“Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status,” wrote Cook’s House Editor David Wasserman.
“It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”