A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll shows Republican challenger Dr. Joe Heck with a 10 point lead over incumbent Rep. Dina Titus in NV-3. The survey shows the GOP candidate beating Titus 53-43 percent.
The reasons for the surge are threefold. Compared to a September survey by the same pollster, Titus’ unfavorables have risen from 41 to 49 percent. In addition, independents are breaking for Heck 57-39 percent. Finally, Heck also is doing extremely well with the base, winning the vote of 90 percent of Republicans, while Titus is earning only 79 percent of Democrats.
The Mason-Dixon sample figured on an election day Republican surge large enough to overcome the Democrats’ 5,000+ raw vote edge in NV-3 after early voting.
Titus and her surrogates have been bombarding Heck with negative ads that distort both his voting record and policy positions, a strategy that may have backfired due to Heck’s general credibility and likability. Heck is a well-respected physician, businessman, former state senator and war veteran who comes across as both personable and articulate in conversation.
In addition, Titus spent a considerable amount of time and energy defending and trying to sell both the stimulus and health care legislation in debates with Heck, while the challenger disputed their effectiveness by pointing to the indisputably dismal state of affairs across the state. Both measures are more unpopular than liked by Nevada voters.
Titus surfed the Obama wave to victory in 2008. It appears she will now drown in the anti-incumbent tsunami expected to wash over the nation Tuesday.