Politics & Policy

The Hill: Gardner Leads Markey 44-41, Independents Breaking to Dem Incumbent

According to the poll by The Hill, Rep. Betsy Markey has come to within just a few points of her Republican opponent, Cory Gardner:

Markey is behind in this Republican-leaning district by a mere three points — 44 percent to 41, with 14 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill/ANGA poll.

It’s welcome news for Markey given that Republicans have trumpeted internal polling that has her down big. 

But she may have difficulty finding new voters to win over. She has 89 percent of the Democrats’ support and is winning independents at 43 percent to Gardner’s 39. She even has a decent amount of Republican support, at 11 percent. 

The poll was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 391 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

The poll does not include third-party candidates, perhaps helping to drive up the number of undecideds. The poll has a small sample size and large margin of error. But analysis of this poll, along with the other 11 that were also conducted was still not encouraging for Markey. “The rule of thumb is that any incumbent under 50 percent is in trouble, and any incumbent under 45 percent is deep trouble,” said the article at RealClearPolitics.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight still ranks this seat as an 80 percent likely pickup for the GOP, and the New York Times has long listed the seat as “leaning Republican.”

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