CT Capitol Report has just released its latest poll and it shows Democratic Congressman Jim Himes leading his Republican opponent Dan Debicella 49.4 to 47.2 percent:
The poll, commissioned by ctcapitolreport.com and conducted by the Merriman River Group, surveyed 411 likely voters on October 3-5, 2010 with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
“With a month to go, the 4th district race between Democratic incumbent Jim Himes and Republican challenger Dan DeBicella is a statistical dead heat, and the city of Bridgeport will likely decide it,” says the poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “Himes holds a 2.2 percent lead, which is less than half the margin of error. As in other districts, Himes’ fortunes may be tied to President Obama’s approval rating. Voters approving of the President’s job performance are supporting Himes by an 87.2-10.3 margin, while voters who have a negative view of Obama support Republican DeBicella 88.7-9.8.”
According to Fitch, “Voter turnout in Bridgeport may well hold the key to this race. In 2008 almost 40,000 voters turned out in Bridgeport, and Himes’ 23,000 vote margin in the city offset an 11,000 vote deficit in the rest of the district to give him a 12,000 vote plurality. In 2006, when barely 20,000 voters turned out, Democrat Diane Farrell won Bridgeport by better than a 2-1 margin, but the lower turnout yielded her only a 7,000 vote margin and she was unable to overcome the 14,000 vote deficit in the rest of the district. The question is not whether Himes will do well in Bridgeport, but rather will enough people vote to offset losses in the rest of the district?