Politics & Policy

Nate Silver: Brutal Picture on Midwestern House Races for Democrats

Nate Silver has now officially run simulations for every House race in the country, and the results in Ohio and Illinois are discouraging for Democrats, to say the least.

To quickly recap Silver’s numbers:

In Ohio, Lee Fisher is rated as having only a 1 percent chance to win. Rob Portman, 99 percent. This race is over, and Portman should be picking out drapes.

At the gubernatorial level, despite recent poll hiccups, Republican John Kasich is rated at an 87 percent chance of winning to Ted Strickland’s 13 percent. It’s not as crushing as Fisher, but it isn’t good, either.

And then there are the House races. If Silver’s model holds, then the GOP has at least a 70 percent chance of picking up the three major battleground races in Ohio — namely in OH-1 where Rep. Steve Driehaus and faces former congressman Steve Chabot; OH-15 between Mary Jo Kilroy and Steve Stivers; and OH-16 between John Boccieri and Jim Renacci. Other Ohio races with Democrat incumbents are less encouraging, with Democrats favored by percentages of 60 percent at the lowest.

In Illinois, the math is more uneven for the GOP, but still solid.

Bill Brady, the Republican Gubernatorial nominee is favored to win, with a 91 percent chance of victory, making incumbent Governor Pat Quinn’s desperation understandable. The Senate race leans GOP but is much more narrow, with Mark Kirk having only a 54 percent chance of victory against Alexi Giannoulias. In other words, anything can happen.

At the House level, the GOP is practically guaranteed to pick up one seat in Illinois, and that’s IL-11, currently held by Debbie Halvorson. Republican challenger Adam Kinzinger has an 82 percent chance of winning, according to Silver’s model.

Everything else is either a toss-up or an uphill battle. Ominously for the GOP, the Democrats have a 54 percent chance of picking up Mark Kirk’s old House seat in what is otherwise an off-year for the party. The GOP is only barely over 50 percent in the race between Randy Hultgren and Bill Foster in IL-14. Phil Hare in IL-17 is still a possible scalp, but with a 56.6 percent chance of winning, his challenger Bobby Schilling is going to need to do a lot of work between now and November 2.

Most Popular

Film & TV

In Unsane, Aetna Meets Kafka

Unsane doesn’t take the form of a horror film; at first, it appears to be a Hitchcockian thriller about mistaken identity or perhaps getting ensnared in a web of bureaucracy. Yet with clinical detachment it develops into a nerve-flaying story almost too agonizing to endure. Unlike most horror movies, it isn’t ... Read More
Science & Tech

The Real Deal With the Tech Giants

A bit of dialogue from the old television series Person of Interest, where a reclusive billionaire programmer and a former CIA agent use a giant supercomputer to predict crimes and save people: FINCH: Hester's living off the grid. No photos online and nothing on the social networking sites. REESE: I've never ... Read More

Viva l’Italia?

Italy has just had elections, with very interesting results. I wanted to talk with Alberto Mingardi, which I have. He is one of the leading classical liberals in Italy -- the director general of the Bruno Leoni Institute, in Milan. (Mingardi himself is Milanese.) He is also an authority in arts and letters. In ... Read More

Putin and the Cult of Leadership

On Sunday, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won an unsurprising reelection-campaign victory against Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin, by a margin of 76.7 percent to 11.8 percent. The results were unsurprising because Putin is a tyrant who murders or imprisons political rivals, and who isn’t afraid to use ... Read More

Trump and Brexit Derangement Syndrome

I am not one of those Brexiteers who believe that Brexit and Trumpism are essentially the same phenomenon in two different countries. To be sure, they both draw on some of the same political trends, notably a distrust of elites and an upsurge of popular anger over evident failures of public policy such as illegal ... Read More

Stand Up to Putin

President Putin’s landslide victory in Russia’s presidential election was achieved against the lackluster competition of a group of mediocre candidates from which the sole serious opponent had been excluded; amid plausible allegations that his security services had tried to poison two Russians in England by ... Read More