Politics & Policy

New CA Senate Poll

A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer at 49 percent and Carly Fiorina at 46 percent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.

The race is considered a “Toss-Up” by Rasmussen.

While recent polls have given Boxer an overall lead of 6.2 points, according to RealClearPolitics, many of those polls have been assuming an electorate with a much higher percentage of Democratic participation than seems likely, considering how much more enthusiastic GOP voters are this year. Over at The Weekly Standard, Jeffrey Anderson has a good piece about how misjudging the electorate can impact polls. In fact, he figures that a more Republican electorate (which seems plausible) would lead to Boxer having only a 1-point lead over Fiorina.

Fiorina, who had been hospitalized for the past couple of days to be treated for an infection related to cancer-related surgery she had earlier this year, is back on the campaign trail today.

Katrina TrinkoKatrina Trinko is a political reporter for National Review. Trinko is also a member of USA TODAY’S Board of Contributors, and her work has been published in various media outlets ...

Most Popular

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in ... Read More
Elections

How Trump Might Be Winning

I’m far too dumb to be able to shed any light on polls, but I do know something about celebrity and I think I can guarantee this: If President Trump wins re-election, Robert Cahaly is going to become very famous very quickly. Who is Robert Cahaly? The chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, the only major ... Read More
Elections

How Trump Might Be Winning

I’m far too dumb to be able to shed any light on polls, but I do know something about celebrity and I think I can guarantee this: If President Trump wins re-election, Robert Cahaly is going to become very famous very quickly. Who is Robert Cahaly? The chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, the only major ... Read More

Trump: Yes

Editor’s Note: The following is one of three essays, each from a different perspective, in the latest edition of National Review on the question of whether to vote for President Trump. The views below reflect those of the individual author, not of the NR editorial board as a whole. The other two essays can be ... Read More

Trump: Yes

Editor’s Note: The following is one of three essays, each from a different perspective, in the latest edition of National Review on the question of whether to vote for President Trump. The views below reflect those of the individual author, not of the NR editorial board as a whole. The other two essays can be ... Read More