Politics & Policy

Obama’s Blue-State Blues

Public Policy Polling notes that “one of the most amazing things” in its polling over the last month has been Barack Obama’s abysmal approval numbers among likely voters in Democrat-leaning states where he won handily in 2008, such as: Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois. Obama’s low numbers are definitely having an impact on mid-term races in those states:

In the places where the bulk of likely voters disapprove of Obama it’s not very hard to see the contribution that’s making to tough Democratic prospects this fall. Democrats at this point are favored to lose Governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Maine. Illinois and even New Hampshire are possible losses as well. The party is also favored to lose its Senate in Wisconsin, could lose them in Illinois and Colorado, looks like it will miss out on a once bright pick up opportunity in New Hampshire, and had to be bailed out by the Tea Party in Delaware.

The big question moving forward- how much of this is Obama voters going to the Republicans and how much of it is simply Obama voters not being part of this year’s likely electorate? It’s likely a combination of the 2, and what exactly the mix is will play a large role in determining Obama’s fate in 2012.

This chart says it all:

 

 

State

 

Obama Approval/Disapproval

 

 

 

Spread

 

2008 Margin of Victory

Hawaii

53/37

+16

45

California

53/42

+11

24

New York

47/46

+1

27

Delaware

46/48

-2

25

Connecticut

45/47

-2

22

Illinois

44/49

-5

25

Maine

44/51

-7

17

New Hampshire

44/52

-8

9

New Mexico

43/52

-9

15

Michigan

42/54

-12

16

Colorado

42/54

-12

9

Wisconsin

41/54

-13

14

One in Four Democrats Support Obamacare Repeal? Yes, according to a new poll by The Hill/ANGA, health-care reform is proving to be another serious drag on many freshman House Democrats’ hopes for reelection. While there certainly wasn’t bipartisan support for passing Obamacare, there appears to be bipartisan support for repealing the bill. According the poll, 23 percent of Democrats favor repeal, with 64 percent opposed. A majority of Republicans and Independents support repeal.

Andrew StilesAndrew Stiles is a political reporter for National Review Online. He previously worked at the Washington Free Beacon, and was an intern at The Hill newspaper. Stiles is a 2009 ...

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