15 Days to the Election.
Gubernatorial Race
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Strickland got a much-needed financial boost yesterday, as well as an audience of 35,000 people due to the President’s visit. Strickland also got a last-minute endorsement from the Toledo Blade, but Kasich racked up no less than three new endorsements and the endorsement advantage goes to him.
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Kasich plans to meet with students himself, lest you think the campaign has conceded this demographic to Strickland.
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The Cleveland Plain Dealer has pointed out that the increasingly negative campaign will be defined half by jabs at the other candidate and half by salesmanship. Kasich’s got a natural advantage on at least one question — he has a plan for what to do with Third Frontier, the key initiative of Ohio’s Development strategy. But all Strickland backers have is attacks — for instance, the discredited one that Kasich wants to pay secret bonuses to Wall Street CEOs, or the xenophobic attacks on the Chamber of Commerce, which have now even localized in Ohio. Fasten your seat belts, voters, it’s going to be a bumpy night.
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Oh, and Kasich has a new attack ad. Fortunately, it uses generic quotes from Strickland about needing change to avoid contextual problems about specific claims, and is pretty effective looking:
Senatorial Race
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Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher is still going to lose. Yes, even though that great powerhouse publication, the Youngstown Vindicator, endorsed him. Yes, even though he has a bunch of desperate attacks to throw at Rob Portman. Yes, even though Al Gore will campaign for him. Sorry Lee, but when you have no money, when you’re trailing badly in polls, when the fact-checkers rate your opponent’s claims as mostly true, and that same opponent picks up two late endorsements to your one, you’re dead. Go home.
House Races
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Betty Sutton, the Democrat in OH-13, is very happy that China is getting investigated. She also got a true rating for a pretty devastating attack line from Politifact and got profiled by a local TV station. And she’s going into the final weeks of the race with a seven-to-one cash advantage against Republican challenger Tom Ganley. Who is pulling his ads.
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On the other hand, if you are outspending your Democratic rival 4-to-1, can only get attacked for your supposed lack of “empathy” and quite possibly the silliest smear on Civil Rights, not to mention being defended by (of all people) readers of the Washington Post and having one of your more embarrassing photos fading from public view, you just might have reason to be optimistic. Just ask Rich Iott, Republican of OH-9.
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And if you have to hide what party you’re from on your campaign signs, are an admitted wife beater who has to rely on the media being too biased to care, and have an opponent who’s dialing up the fundraising, you should be worried. Just ask Charlie Wilson in OH-6.
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On the other hand, if your stance against free trade plays well with local voters, your stance on Social Security is calibrated to play well with seniors and you have a new endorsement this late in the game, you’re probably in fighting shape, even as a Democrat. That is, assuming the GOP isn’t planning to use everything in their power to drag you down. Just ask Zack Space in OH-18.
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And of course, if your only support comes from outside your district and the best chance you have is to play up a libertarian candidate who’s nuttier than something squirrels excrete, you’re in trouble. Just ask John Boccieri of OH-16.