Politics & Policy

Press Disputes Murphy’s Ad, Polling

The Hartford Courant takes issue with Rep. Chris Murphy’s ad, “Ansonia,” in its latest “Claim Check.” Here’s the ad:

Here’s the problem:

[T]he bill Murphy introduced never passed. Instead, several watered-down provisions were included as amendments to the defense authorization bill, and it is fairly loose shorthand to describe them as measures that will direct federal contracts to companies promising not to send jobs overseas.

On a related note, Merriman River Group, which conducted a poll showing Murphy losing to his Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri by five points, is defending its results now that Murphy’s campaign accuses it of shoddy methodology:

In the Murphy press release, it is alleged that “in 2008” (sic) the “Merriam River Group” (sic) performed a poll for Marcy Winograd in California’s 36th Congressional District that showed a dead heat with incumbent Jane Harman, and that Winograd went on to lose by 17% three weeks later.

Typographical errors aside, it is true we performed a poll for Marcy Winograd’s primary campaign in California’s 36th Congressional District from May 10-11, 2010 and another tracking poll from June 1-2, 2010. Although they were private polls, with the permission of Marcy Winograd, we have attached the results.

In the first poll, we showed incumbent Jane Harman winning by 15%, 44%-29%. In the June poll, we showed Harman again leading, by 14%, 46%-32%. Harman went on to win by 17%. In contrast to our highly accurate polls, we will note that incumbent Harman released internal poll results in May that showed her leading by 41%. On Election Day, her campaign’s poll proved to be wrong by 24% (http://calitics.com/diary/11668/ca36-harman-holds-substantial-lead-overwinograd), while our polls were within our margin of error.


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