Uh oh. Rasmussen releases a poll today showing John Kasich ahead of Ted Strickland by a paltry three percentage points. Guess he really is late to the tea party, eh? Analysis below, with emphasis on the more disturbing information:
The race for governor of Ohio appears to be tightening.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio shows Republican John Kasich barely ahead of incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland 48% to 45%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The race moves from Leans GOP to a Toss-Up on the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
This is the closest the race has been since early August and the fifth straight poll of the race to show Kasich’s support between 47% and 50%. However, for Strickland, it’s his strongest showing since May. Two weeks ago, Kasich held an eight-point advantage over Strickland, who is seeking a second four-year term.
Left-wing blog Plunderbund quotes a passage that doesn’t appear anywhere in the poll release (Platinum version or making it up? You decide) which says Kasich’s moved from being 30 points ahead of Strickland with independents to being only five points ahead. If this is true, it’s statistically extremely out-of-step with other polls, even the ones showing Strickland above 45 percent.