RealClearPolitics says the race in Connecticut’s fourth congressional district is a “toss-up.”
For most of its existence, the district has elected Democrats in only the worst Republican years: 1930, 1958, 1960. The Republicans the district elected weren’t conservative in any modern meaning of the word. They tended to be establishment Republicans, and as the Republican Party became increasingly concerned with social issues, these representatives drifted increasingly out of step with the national Republican Party. Lowell Weicker, who represented the district for a term in 1968 before going on to the Senate, is emblematic of this brand of Republican.
Chris Shays was just this type of Republican. He represented the 4th for 10 terms before finally succumbing to Democrat Jim Himes in the 2008 elections. Himes has voted like a national Democrat, and it may be hurting him as the country focuses increasingly on economic issues. Himes faces state Senator Dan Debicella in the general election.