Politics & Policy

Sestak’s Turnout Challenge

After the only two debates between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak were being held during the course of last week, polls seemed to indicate Joe Sestak was not only closing his polling gap, but some even had him leading. But since those debates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh last week, it looks like Toomey has regained his momentum in the final days.

CNN/Time, Franklin & Marshall, and Muhlenberg Daily Tracking polls all have Toomey slightly ahead, while Reuters/Ipso had him tied.

Battle ‘10 turned to political consultant Charlie Gerow, who spoke about Sestak’s central challenge over the course of the next five days.

“It’s pretty clear that it’s a margin of error race,” Gerow told Battle ‘10. “It’ll depend on two things: the ground game of each campaign, and the enthusiasm gap.”

“I still believe Sestak has a hard time energizing his personal base and the Democratic base in Philadelphia. There’s nothing that suggests that going to happen. I don’t see what’s going to get people up on Nov. 2 that would make them be there for Joe Sestak.”

“I think it’ll be a close race, but it’s still ‘advantage Toomey.’”

“If you brought Obama into any other part of the state, it’d be absolutely toxic,” but the City of Philadelphia, said Gerow, remains “the only place where Obama works.”

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