Unmistakable signs of a Republican trend are brightening the chances of a GOP takeover of the U.S. Senate. Yesterday, a new Rasmussen poll showed Republican Dino Rossi one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Patty Murray. The Rossi lead — obviously within the margin of error — came after he had trailed by three points in previous polling.
Most significantly, Rossi led by two points among those who had already voted using Washington State’s early-voting option. Murray led by a point among those who had not yet cast their ballots (some of whom will presumably never do so).
If Rossi wins in Washington State, it will most likely be the ninth Republican takeaway, with ten needed for control. Right now, Republicans lead in the races for the following Democratic-held Senate seats: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado, and Washington State. Only in West Virginia has the Democrat, Gov. Joe Manchin, gained in recent days. If John Raese, the Republican nominee, can close the three-point gap that now separates him from Manchin, the Senate will go Republican.
In the past week, Republicans have improved in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Washington State; the signs of a trend are developing.
Less visible is the trend going on at the House level. In district after district, Republican polls are improving and there is increasing evidence of a sweep of truly historic proportions.
Our own efforts through superpacusa.com are bearing fruit, and the poll data from the 24 House races in which we are working is encouraging. Most interesting was the fact that Barney Frank has dropped below 50 percent of the vote, a sign of possible defeat. Please donate funds to help us move the numbers in these races; you can do so here.
The most important indication of an even stronger GOP trend is the fact that early voters are far more likely to be registered Republicans than they were in 2008. In that year, Democrats tended to outnumber Republicans in early voting by an average of about 15 percent. Now the Republicans, who have fewer total registered voters, are running slightly ahead of the Democrats and 15–20 points ahead of their pace in 2008.
The Daily Show interview with President Obama reflected the liberal angst that is depressing the Democratic turnout. Pressed as to whether he had been timid and criticized for appointing “the same people” (e.g., Larry Summers) who had failed the nation’s economy before, Obama had no good answers. The lack of a message was evident through all the bonhomie of the interview.
Now, Bill Clinton’s Hail Mary pass in trying to get Kendrick Meek to withdraw from the Florida Senate race and endorse Republican-turned-Democratic governor Charlie Crist, reflects the Democratic desperation as they see the wave engulfing them.
But none of this will work unless we have a good turnout and Republicans not only vote but throng to the polls. It is up to each of us to make these poll numbers a reality on November 2.